The impact of drought on the 1998 mild New Zealand recession

Reserve Bank of New Zealand has these conclusions about the contribution of drought to the business cycle in the late 1990s in New Zealand and in particular the mild 1998 recession:

a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the impact of the drought-induced fall in supply would suggest a contribution from the agricultural sector to production GDP for the March quarter of 1998 of around -0.4 percentage points out of the total 1 per cent fall in production GDP. In the June quarter of 1998, the contribution from these sectors was close to zero.

Figure 27:

0096149_files/business-cycle-developments-since-1996-for-submission-to-monetary-policy-review-final-version-placed-on-web-27.jpg

 

In 1998, agricultural and hunting industry contributed per cent of real GDP. . That included the production of livestock, wool, dairy, horticulture, and crops, as well as the provision of agricultural contracting services and hunting. In the same year, the primary food manufacturing industry contributed 3 per cent of GDP. This category covers the processing of meat and dairy products for export and local markets.

Blaming droughts on Rogernomics? Droughts and the New Zealand real business cycle

While feuding on another blog about the ups and downs of the New Zealand economy since the 1970s, I pointed out that a long economic boom followed the Ruth RichardsonMother of all Budgets” in 1991:

My interlocutor quickly replied to blame Rogernomics, in particular, inflation targeting and its administration by Don Brash for a severe recession in New Zealand in 1998:

The mild recession in New Zealand in 1998 was a result of the combination of two severe droughts and the effects of the Asian financial crisis.

Drought is a major factor in the New Zealand business cycle because of the large size of the farming sector. Indeed, the ups and downs of a monopoly dairy exporter that accounts for 7% of GDP, Fonterra, are so central that a single dirty pipe at a milk factory that put the quality of its milk exports in question lead the Treasury to revise its economic forecasts for that year.

There is growing evidence that a substantial part of business cycle volatility can be explained by real business cycle theory (RBC). RBC claims that a good majority of economic volatility is caused by changes on the supply side: tax and regulatory changes, bad weather in farm economies, spikes in oil prices and technology shocks. Real business cycle models have enjoyed success in replicating most of the observed characteristics of, for example, U.S. aggregate economic activity.

Over the last 15 years, a number of papers at the Treasury and Reserve Bank of New Zealand have explored the role of droughts in the New Zealand business cycle, such as the drought in 1997.

The 1998 recession was preceded by a severe drought that may have knocked a half percentage point off GDP or more. As the Treasury explained in 2008:

Given the importance of the primary sector in New Zealand, climatic conditions have always been a significant driver of GDP volatility in New Zealand. There is strong evidence that the 1998 drought triggered or precipitated the onset of the last recession in the late-90s.

In 2008, the dry conditions in New Zealand led the Treasury to revise its forecasts as follows:

current dry conditions are likely to trim GDP growth by around 0.5% for the 2008 calendar year.  

In 2013, the Reserve Bank made similar pessimistic forecasts about the implications of drought for economic prospects. New Zealand was suffering its worst drought in decades:

It was simply mistaken to blame the 1998 recession in New Zealand as the spawn of Rogernomics. There was a drought, a big one, big enough drought to shake the New Zealand business cycle in a country with a large farming sector.

The most important aspect of monetary strategy is timing

The simplest statement to make about the lags in monetary policy is they are long and variable. This simple statement is also the key insight to understanding the actual implementation of monetary policy. Hence, how many months or years in advance must a central bank forecast to achieve its monetary goals? In 1994, the Economist said:

But [central banks] cannot afford to wait until inflation is actually rising before they act. Monetary policy does not change the speed of the economy instantly: it can take 18 months or more for a rise in interest rates to have its full impact on inflation. The target of policy ought therefore to be future not current inflation, in order to prevent a surge in 1996. The earlier interest rates are raised, the better the chances of engineering a smooth slowdown to a sustainable rate of growth before slack in the economy is exhausted.

Economists differ about the length of those lags. Uncertainty about the average length of those lags and the variability of those lags makes discretion most difficult. Activist policy can improve welfare only if the information about economic structure and economists’ ability to forecast is sufficiently accurate.

Early_sample

Friedman is the most famous and persuasive critic of Keynesianism on the grounds of lags. He has two main arguments: first, that there are “long and variable lags” between the identification of a problem and the effects of the designed remedy; second, that activist policy often itself becomes a source of instability since policy itself becomes a variable that the market must guess.

Friedman’s critique does not depend on the quantity theory of money. Keynesian policies do not necessarily follow even if the Keynesian theory of the business cycle were conclusively proved.

It must also be demonstrated that the government has the ability and willingness of the government to act as the theory prescribes. We are therefore further assuming that central banks have the incentive to stabilise the economy. If the government lacks the information required to stabilise the economy, issues of public choice incentives become fully redundant. Incentives to pursue an objective do not matter if the objective itself is unattainable.

Competing visions of central banking

Economics: A Million Mutinies Now, Part Two - feat. image

The competing visions of central banks over monetary policy have been defined by Franco Modiglani and Milton Friedman respectively. Modiglani considers the Keynesian vision of macroeconomic policy to be:

a market economy is subject to fluctuations which need to be corrected, can be corrected, and therefore should be corrected.

The Keynesian claim implies that central banks have sufficient knowledge of the structure of the economy to be able to choose the policy mix appropriate to a given set of circumstances. It is possible to target unemployment, interest rates and inflation in such a way that they can be maintained (and hence made predictable) by constant adjustment of policy instruments to new shocks.

The Keynesian approach assumes that the economy can slip into recessions for all sorts of reasons (Barro 1989). Business fluctuations result from shocks to aggregate demand. The principal source of these shocks are expectations induced shifts in investment demand. The role of the central bank is to make prompt, frequent policy responses to counteract this instability.

The task of government is to discover the particular monetary and fiscal polices which can eliminate shocks emanating from the private sector. A key finding of recent macroeconomic research is that anticipated monetary policy has very different effects to unanticipated monetary policy.

The Keynesian vision thus presuppose that government can foresee shocks which are invisible to the private sector but at the same time it is unable to reveal this advance information in a credible way and hence defusing the shock because it is no longer unanticipated. In addition, the counter cyclical monetary policies of governments must themselves be unforeseeable by private agents, but at the same time systematically related to the state of the economy (Lucas and Sargent 1979)

Of course, the Keynesian view of central banking is also premised on a goodwill theory of government. Governments pursue policies that are in the public interest. That is a public interest that is well-defined and is free of conflicts over income distribution, electoral success and power the could lead policy-makers to pursue goals other than full employment, stable prices and efficiency. Thus, if the latest forecast is a recession, additional stimulus is the usual prescription. However, since most Keynesian economists accept the permanent income and natural rate hypotheses, more stimulus implies less later at some unknown time.

Friedman’s vision of central banking is far more circumspect:

The central problem is not designing a highly sensitive [monetary] instrument that offsets instability introduced by other factors[in the economy], but preventing monetary arrangements becoming a primary source of instability (Milton Friedman 1959).

Friedman considers that a key element in the case for policy discretion is whether the sufficient information is available that can be used to reduce variability and assist the economy’s adjustment the unforeseen. A well intentioned policy-maker will destabilise if he is mislead by incomplete or incorrect information.

From the monetarist standpoint, price stability can be approximately attained under a well chosen and predictable monetary policy rule. Under this view, the unemployment and interest rates are unpredictable and can manipulated only at a prohibitive cost. The Keynesian and monetarist views are mutually incompatible and lead to very different policy recommendations (Lucas 1981).

Why Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain are called the PIGS

HT: Finn Kydland

Roberts Solow on the British disease and Eurosclerosis

Robert Solow amateur psychology

HT: Brad Delong

Greece’s Great Depression

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Why is it so expensive to eat in Europe as compared to America?

Via Cheap Eats: How America Spends Money on Food — The Atlantic.

The Entire Global Economy in  1 Slide – Bloomberg Business

HT: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/the-entire-global-economy-in-two-big-slides

Paul Samuelson on where he disagreed with Milton Friedman on macroeconomic policy

Paul Samuelson on where he disagreed with Milton Friedman

via Samuelson vs. Friedman, David Henderson | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty and An Interview With Paul Samuelson, Part One — The Atlantic.

The Entire Global Economy in  1 Slide – Bloomberg Business

HT: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/the-entire-global-economy-in-two-big-slides

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Class war warrior @WJRosenbergCTU inadvertently refutes the case for the class struggle

Today in the Dominion Post, Bill Rosenberg, a trade union self-described economist, argued that the workers are not getting their fair share of productivity gains in New Zealand over the last 35 years:

I calculate that wages in the 60 per cent of the economy studied by the commission would have been 12 per cent higher on average by March 2011, if they had kept up with productivity since 1978.

He then rounded up the usual Twitter Left suspects:

The commission’s study is important in that it finds that a large part of the fall in the labour share of income in the 1990s was due to high unemployment created by the radical restructuring of the economy that began in the 1980s and the Employment Contracts Act passed in 1991. Australia underwent similar restructuring during the period, but its labour income share fell only slightly. Its labour market is underpinned with an award system and other protections.

12%! 12% is at all that the class struggle is about over a 35 year period in terms of wage losses and labour surplus extract by the greedy bosses?

Figure 1: Real equivalised median household income (before housing costs) by ethnicity, 1988 to 2013 ($2013)

Source: Bryan Perry, Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014).

As shown in figure 1, between 1994 and 2010, real equivalised median New Zealand household income rose by 47%; for Māori, this rise was 68%; for Pasifika, the rise in real equivalised median household income was 77%. Obviously these losses from the change in shares of GDP are dwarfed by the general increases in living standards over the last 20 years.

As is common with every member of the Left over Left that I run into these days, such as Bill Rosenberg, their analysis has no gender analysis.

The Left over Left invariably fail to mention that New Zealand has the smallest gender wage gap of all the industrialised countries.


Over the last more than two decades in New Zealand, there has been sustained income growth spread across all of New Zealand society contrary to hopes and dreams of the Left over Left. Perry (2014) reviews the poverty and inequality data in New Zealand every year for the Ministry of Social Development. He concluded that:

Overall, there is no evidence of any sustained rise or fall in inequality in the last two decades. The level of household disposable income inequality in New Zealand is a little above the OECD median. The share of total income received by the top 1% of individuals is at the low end of the OECD rankings.

As for Rosenberg’s hypothesis that it’s all the fault of the Employment Contracts Act, that doesn’t stand up. Figure 2 shows that union membership has been in a long slow decline in New Zealand since the mid-1970s. This is been pretty much the pattern all round the world.

Figure 2: Union density, New Zealand, Australia, the UK and USA 1970-2013

Source: OECD Stats Extract

The much hated Employment Contracts Act 1991, much hated by the Left over Left, doesn’t really show up in the union density figures in figure 2. There is no sudden break in trend obvious in figure 2 in the early 1990s when the Employment Contract Act was passed.

Indeed, the passage of the Employment Contracts Act 1991 was followed by a 15 year economic boom in employment and economic growth, as shown in figure 3. This was after the lost decades of 1974 to 1992 when there was next to no growth in real GDP per New Zealander aged 15 to 64. The good old days when the Lost Decades for New Zealand.

Figure 3: Real GDP per New Zealander and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1956-2013

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014.

Things are so grim for the class struggle in New Zealand that the leader of the Labour Party has had to redefine the working class because it is withering away so rapidly because so many workers are joining the middle-class:

 

 

Europe’s Greater Depression is worse than the 1930s

Europe's Greater Depression

HT: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/08/14/europes-greater-depression-is-worse-than-the-1930s/

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Finn Kydland on the myth of the Celtic Tiger

Finn Kydland has a simple explanation for the so-called Celtic Tiger. It was a recovery from a deep depression in the 1970s and 1980s in the Irish economy.

HT: “Ireland’s Great Depression,” Finn Kydland, Alan Ahearne and Mark A. Wynne, The Economic and Social Review 37(2), Summer/Autumn 2006, 215-243. (pdf)

How should labor productivity be measured across the OECD area

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