The fire of truth: the relationship between inequality and economic prosperity in New Zealand since the 1970s

Figure 1: Before Housing Costs Gini coefficient, New Zealand, 1982 – 2013

closertogether.org.nz/nzs-income-inequality-problem claims that NZ income inequality increased very rapidly in the late 1980s and 1990s — faster than in any other wealthy country.

Figure 2 shows that this rapid rise in inequality coincided with the resumption of economic growth after two lost decades: next to no increase in real GDP per working age New Zealander from 1974 to 1992.

Figure 2: Real GDP per New Zealander and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1956-2012

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Source: Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Perry (2014) found that:

  • Income inequality in New Zealand is at a similar level to Australia, Canada, Italy and Japan (Ginis of 32-33) and a little lower than the UK (34). Countries such as Denmark, Norway, Finland and Belgium have lower than average inequality (Ginis of 25-26). The US and Israel have higher scores of 39.
  • The top 1% in New Zealand received around 8% of all taxable income in 2010 and 2011 (before tax), similar to Norway, Finland and Australia, lower than Ireland and Switzerland (11%) and much lower than the UK and Canada (13%) and the US (18%).
  • The trend for the New Zealand share has been steady at around 8-9% since the mid 1990s, with perhaps a slight fall in the last few years. Many OECD countries saw small rises in the period, and in the USA the top 1% share continued to rise strongly, from 13% to 19%.

Perry (2014) concluded that:

Overall, there is no evidence of any sustained rise or fall in inequality in the last two decades. The level of household disposable income inequality in New Zealand is a little above the OECD median. The share of total income received by the top 1% of individuals is at the low end of the OECD rankings.

This remark by Parry that there is no evidence of any sustained rise or fall in inequality in New Zealand in the last 20 years  is very much at odds with the claim of Closer Together New Zealand that income inequality inequality increased rapidly in the late 1980s and 1990s.

The increase in inequality in New Zealand  was in the late 1980s  and early 1990s. In the early 1990s, a long economic boom started that lasted until the global financial crisis.

Figure 3 : Income Inequality in New Zealand as Assessed by the Gini Coefficient

Source: Perry 2014 derived from Statistics NZ Household Economic Survey (HES) 1982–2012.

Figure 4: Income Inequality in New Zealand as Assessed by the P80/P20 Ratio

Source: Perry 2014 derived from Statistics NZ Household Economic Survey (HES) 1982–2012.

Figures 3 and 4 both show that after housing costs inequality in New Zealand is higher, but has been pretty stable for 20 years as measured by the Gini coefficient and by the P80/P20  ratio. (When individuals are ranked by equivalised household income and then divided into 100 equal groups, each group is called a percentile. If the ranking starts with the lowest income, then the income at the top of the 20th percentile is denoted P20; the income at the top of the 80th percentile is called P80. The ratio of the value at the top of the 80th percentile to the value at the top of the 20th percentile is called the P80/20 ratio and is often used as a measure of income inequality).

Figure 5: Proportion of HHs with housing cost outgoings to income of greater than 30%, by income quintile

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Source: Perry (2014); OTI = outgoings to income

Figure 5 shows that

  • for the bottom quintile (Q1), the proportion with high outgoings to income (OTI) steadily reduced from 48% in 1994 to 34% in 2004, as unemployment fell, employment and income rose, and income-related rental policies were introduced in 2000 for those in HNZC houses. From HES 2009 to HES 2013 the proportion rose strongly from 33% to 42%, the highest it has been in the last 25 years except for the peak of 48% in 1994.
  • For households with incomes in the second quintile (Q2) there was a strong rise from the 1980s through to the mid 1990s, followed by a relatively flat trend to 2004. Since 2004, the proportion with high OTIs has risen strongly from 27% to 36%.
  • For the third quintile (Q3) the proportion with high OTIs settled at around 30% for 2007 to 2013, up from 21% in 2004 and 10% in 1988.

Rising housing costs in New Zealand have one explanation, which is restrictions on the supply of land under the Resource Management Act.

HT: nzchildren.co.nz/income_inequality for figures 3 and 4.

Policy bubbles alert: the R&D fetish is a major threat to innovation and economic growth

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Edmund Phelps on the golden rule

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Piketty on inequality: views of the IGM economic experts

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Question: The most powerful force pushing towards greater wealth inequality in the US since the 1970s is the gap between the after-tax return on capital and the economic growth rate?

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson have a simple explanation for why Piketty is wrong:

But like Marx, Piketty goes wrong for a very simple reason. The quest for general laws of capitalism or any economic system is misguided because it is a-institutional.

It ignores that it is the institutions and the political equilibrium of a society that determine how technology evolves, how markets function, and how the gains from various different economic arrangements are distributed.

Despite his erudition, ambition, and creativity, Marx was ultimately led astray because of his disregard of institutions and politics. The same is true of Piketty.

Earl A. Thompson on fiscal and monetary policy in the Great Recession

 

There is more to full employment than employment

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Eurosclerosis in one picture

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Is our economic ignorance about the sources of growth increasing?

via Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog: Is Our Economic Ignorance Increasing?.

The growth versus redistribution

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Deirdre McCloskey on how Euroland can grow again

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How is the French economy going?

Embedded image permalink

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Down and out in America in one photo

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Film review – Elysium

Elysium was on TV. When I saw it on the big screen, no one told me it was a depiction of contemporary capitalism and the class war.

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I read it as a contrast between third world countries lacking the rule of law and capitalist democracies.

The ships shooting up to the space station reminded me of Cubans trying to cross into the USA by boat to Florida.

Sorry,  but I am just a simple country boy from the back blocks of Tasmania.

Time I want back on my deathbed: listening to social credit and other monetary cranks

I lost a good 15 minutes of my life that I will not get back on my deathbed listening to some monetary cranks at a Meet the Candidates forum last night for the New Zealand general election.

Monetary cranks advocate boundless inflation and credit expansion as the patent medicine for all our economic ills:

those who have Found the Light about Money take up their pens and write, with a conviction, a persistence and a devotion otherwise only found among the disciples of a new religion.

It is easy to scoff at these productions: it is not so easy always to see exactly where they go wrong. It is natural that practical bankers, vaguely conscious that the projects of monetary cranks are dangerous to society, should cling in self-defence to the solid rock, or what they believe to be so, of tradition and accepted practice. But it is not open to the detached student of economics to take refuge from dangerous innovation in blind conservatism.

D.H. Robertson (1928)

Listening to these monetary cranks in the audience last night rates with the worst movies I have ever ever seen for time I want back my deathbed. I think the worst movie I have ever seen was Absolute Beginners starring David Bowie. After that it, might be Last Tango in Paris.

These particular monetary cranks  with their obsessions about factional reserve banking are from the social credit party in New Zealand. They are followers of Major C.H. Douglas, whom Keynes referred to as a:

private, perhaps, but not a major in the brave army of heretics

Social credit  and other monetary cranks believe that all the world’s problems will be sold if the reserve bank prints money and they seem to think that was really easy because there is a fractional reserve banking system.

No one in the room who knew better wanted to lose more time that they wanted back on their deathbed explaining why printing money doesn’t make you richer. The “money is wealth” error is the  defining affliction of the monetary  crank.

The good economist will know that money creation is no short-cut to wealth. Only the production of valued goods and services in a market which reflects the consumer’s  willingness to pay can relieve poverty and promote prosperity. A people are prosperous to the extent they possess goods and services, not money. All the money in the world—paper or metallic—will still leave one starving if goods and services are not available.

Obviously, none of them were persuaded by the quantity theory of money: if you increase the supply of money without a matching increase in the rate of real growth in the production of goods and services, you’ll have more money chasing the same amount of goods so prices will go up. It’s called inflation. Printing money creates inflation.

There is a school of thought in economic school, the Austrian school of economics, does get excited about fractional reserve banking. The reason it does is to explain how fractional reserve banking creates inflation and promotes the business cycle.

A cycle of booms and busts is not looked upon as a good thing by the Austrian school of economics.

The Austrian school wants to get rid of fractional reserve banking as a way of reducing inflation and reducing the possibility of a loose monetary policy causing booms and busts in the economy.

These monetary cranks from social credit  party honestly believed that printing more money will make you wealthier. Thankfully no one asked them to explain their position.

A few supporters of the monetary cranks in the audience asked other members of their views on the ideas of these monetary cranks. Sensibly, they all gave short answers that did not provoke them further and waste more of their precious life listening to them talk  nonsense.

If printing money was a winner,  as with any populist policy that has a half a chance of working, the parties of the centre-left and centre right would be all over it like flies to s…

Can New Zealand blame distance for its economic woes alert: the global economic hub has been moving closer to us for at least 20 years

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