Environmentalists have been losing the battle for public opinion for some time
11 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, politics - USA, Public Choice, technological progress Tags: air pollution, climate alarmism, conservation, voter demographics, water pollution
Market segmentation in the London newspaper market
11 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, economic history, economics of media and culture, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, Public Choice, survivor principle Tags: British elections, British politics, consumer sovereignty, creative destruction, entrepreneurial alertness, expressive voting, London newspapers, market selection, media bias, product differentiation, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, The meaning of competition
The truth about the press and power? Readers, not editors, decide elections. @RobertdgSmith specc.ie/1c58mAr http://t.co/Vhit9P9iM7—
Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) May 06, 2015
Voter turnout among voting age people
11 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
Under the shy Labour voter theory, countries with low turnouts should have right-wing governments and countries with high turnouts should have left-wing governments. Do they?
Voter turnout among voting age people
Turkey 86%
Sweden 83
France 71
Mexico 65
UK 61
US 54pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015… http://t.co/lmMcqqM4JD—
Conrad Hackett (@conradhackett) June 01, 2015
Boris Yeltsin took office as the first elected President of Russia this Day 1991
10 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, economic history, Marxist economics, Public Choice Tags: capitalism and freedom, collapse of communism, Russia
On 10 July 1991, Boris Yeltsin took office as the first elected President of Russia. #OTD http://t.co/8462T7mCJB—
History Facts 247 (@historyfacts247) July 10, 2015
Newspaper bias just ain’t what it used to be
10 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of media and culture, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, Public Choice Tags: British elections, creative destruction, expressive voting, London newspapers, media bias, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, red scares
Here's the Daily Mirror's polling day advice from days when it was more fair and balanced (h/t Guido) http://t.co/GJ5CNGMoRj—
Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) May 07, 2015
A living wage helps well-off households more!
10 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, econometerics, income redistribution, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: activists, British economy, British politics, do gooders, expressive voting, living wage, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, The fatal conceit, The pretence to knowledge, unintended consequences
Do Living Wage advocates realise it helps richer households more than poorer ones? My take: telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget… … http://t.co/YPTB6v7tSB—
Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) July 10, 2015
Doing Business in the USA and Canada – World Bank rankings compared
10 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, law and economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice Tags: Canada, doing business, rule of law, World Bank
Figure 1: Doing Business in the USA, Canada, World Bank rankings, 2014
Source: Doing Business – Measuring Business Regulations – World Bank Group.
It’s easier to do business in the USA and Canada because of the difficulties with construction permits and getting electricity and few more problems with enforcing contracts and registering property. It is easy to open a business in Canada.
Hopeless KiwiRail bailout reporting by Radio New Zealand
10 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economics of bureaucracy, economics of media and culture, politics - New Zealand, rentseeking, transport economics Tags: corporate welfare, KiwiRail, media bias, privatisation, public ownership, Radio New Zealand, state owned enterprises
This morning on 9 to noon on Radio New Zealand, Kathryn Ryan, the compere of the program, repeatedly claimed that the government pumped $1 billion into the KiwiRail Turnaround Plan between 2010 and 2014. I was so annoyed by this that I made a broadcasting standards complaint while the program was still being broadcast on my mobile as a one finger typist.
The report on 9 to Noon was in response to the government putting KiwiRail on notice, giving it two years to identify savings and reduce Crown funding required or risk the possibility of closure. Since KiwiRail was acquired in 2008 for $665 million as a commercial investment, Crown investments (taxpayers bailout) totalled $3.4 billion – see Figure 1.
Figure 1: State-owned enterprise welfare, Vote Transport and Vote Finance (KiwiRail), Budgets 08/09 to 15/16
Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.
Table 1 shows that the KiwiRail Turnaround plan of $1.272 billion since the 2009-10 Budget is only a small part of the bailout of KiwiRail. 9 to Noon simply ignored the $210 million in the 2015 budget for KiwiRail for no explicable reason and instead talked about a $1 billion Turnaround plan rather than the $1.272 billion Turnaround plan.
Table 1: State-Owned Enterprise welfare, Vote Transport and Vote Finance (KiwiRail), Budgets 2008/09 to 2015/16, $million
| 08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
|
|
New Zealand Railways Corporation Loans |
405 |
55 |
250 |
108 |
11 |
|||
|
KiwiRail Turnaround Plan |
20 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
94 |
198 |
210 |
|
|
KiwiRail Equity Injection |
323 |
25 |
29 |
|||||
|
Rail Network and Rolling Stock Upgrade |
105 |
71 |
10 |
|||||
|
New Zealand Railways Corporation Loans |
55 |
|||||||
|
New Zealand Railways Corporation Increase in Capital for the Purchase of Crown Rail |
376 |
|||||||
|
Crown Rail Operator Loans |
140 |
|||||||
|
Crown Rail Operator Equity Injection |
7 |
|||||||
|
Total |
578 |
530 |
376 |
510 |
680 |
119 |
209 |
239 |
Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.
Other parts of the bailout of KiwiRail include $405 million in loans to the New Zealand Railways Corporation in the 2009-10 budge – see table 1. There was a $323 million equity injection in the 2012-13 Budget – see table 1. KiwiRail has also caused write-downs in the Crown balance sheet of an incredible $9.8 billion since it was repurchased in 2008.
9 to Noon ignored at least two thirds of the cost to the taxpayer of bailing out KiwiRail by only limiting its reporting to part of the KiwiRail Turnaround Plan. It ignored the contribution in the most recent budget to that plan. That does not meet broadcasting standards of accuracy or professional responsibility.
Any reasonable listener will infer, as I did when listening, that the entire cost of the bailout of KiwiRail is represented by the Turnaround Plan of about $1 billion. If listeners were left with that impression, they were misled by 9 to Noon and Radio New Zealand.
The left-wing solution to Greek bankruptcy
10 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, currency unions, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), income redistribution, liberalism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: Eurosclerosis, expressive voting, Greece, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, sovereign default
It’s Time to Name a Price on KiwiRail – how much more in losses before committing to shutting it down?
09 Jul 2015 1 Comment
in economics of bureaucracy, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking, transport economics Tags: corporate welfare, hard budget constraints, KiwiRail, privatisation, public ownership, state owned enterprises, state-owned enterprise welfare
In the finest public service traditions of free and frank advice, the New Zealand Treasury in its budget advice this year advised ministers to contemplate shutting down KiwiRail.
Treasury recommended the Government fund KiwiRail for one more year and undertake a comprehensive public study to look into closing the company. The study is public so that people were informed of the costs of running the rail network compared with any benefits it provided. The Government rejected the idea.
Figure 1: State-owned enterprise welfare, Vote Transport and Vote Finance (KiwiRail), Budgets 08/09 to 15/16
Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.
KiwiRail has been a constant thorn in the taxpayers’ side. Since this rail business was acquired in 2008 for $665 million as a commercial investment, Crown investments have totalled $3.4 billion – see Figure 1.
Fortunately in the 2015 budget, the Minister of Finance signalled that the government’s patience with the KiwiRail deficits is not unlimited. KiwiRail has a 10-year Turnaround Plan to make its freight business commercially viable. The current network of 4,000 km must be reduced to 2,300 km for the company to even breakeven. The Treasury advised, to no avail, that this massive and painful restructuring was required before KiwiRail was purchased. The purchase went through.
The latest developments where Treasury advised ministers to contemplate shutting the network down is an opportunity for ministers, and the opposition spokesmen on finance and transport both to say how much is too much in accumulated KiwiRail losses.
The Minister of Finance and his Cabinet colleagues must say after the public review that there is only so much more left in the cupboard to bailout KiwiRail losses. After that fiscal cap is reached, KiwiRail is on its own. If that means bankruptcy and network closure, so be it.
In the interim, on the side of every KiwiRail train there should be advertising billboards with the following disclosure statements:
- KiwiRail losses adds one percentage point to the company tax rate each year;
- KiwiRail losses takes deny sick taxpayers X number of elective surgeries per year; and
- X number of doctors, nurses, and teachers could have been hired but for last year’s KiwiRail losses!
Split voting analysis for the Greens in the 2014 election
09 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: 2014 New Zealand election, ACT, Grant Robertson, James Shaw, Labour Party, MMP, National Party, New Zealand Greens, split voting, ticket splitting
Split voting analysis suggests there are not a lot of blue green National voters. Few Green Party voters split their party vote and give their electorate vote to National with the exception of tactical voting in Epsom. The Greens and Labour fight for the left-wing vote and that’s about it.
Source: The Electoral Commission.
In the electorate of Epsom, many Green voters voted for the National candidate as a tactical ploy to defeat the ACT party candidate.
Source: The Electoral Commission.
In Wellington Central, the National Party won the party vote with 14,689 party votes. The Greens came second with 11,545. The deputy leader of the Labour Party, Grant Robertson, came a miserable third in the party vote with 9,306 party votes.
Source: The Electoral Commission.
Grant Robinson nonetheless won the seat easily on Green electorate seat votes and more than a few National Party electorate votes.
Indeed, so many of Grant Robinson’s votes came from Greens and National voters that the Greens have a good chance of winning Wellington Central if they tried. More so now that the Green Party leader stands in the seat.
The Greens need to win Wellington Central in the election after they go into a coalition with Labour in government in New Zealand because of the 40% drop in green votes every time they go into government everywhere else.
The Greens have a party vote of 10.7% at the moment. Some of that are Labour voters parking their vote with them while they’re grumpy. A significant part of the rest will be lost when they go into government. Enough of that party vote is risk to push the Greens below the 5% threshold necessary to win any list seats in Parliament.
President Donald Trump? Just Say No
09 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: 2016 presidential election, antiforeign bias, antimarket bias, Donald Trump, expressive voting, rational ignorance, rational irrationality
Vote splitting for the Conservative Party and New Zealand First
08 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: 2014 New Zealand election, Conservative Party, National Party, New Zealand First, New Zealand Labour Party, split voting, ticket splitting, voter demographics
At the 2014 General Election 31.64% of all voters split their vote compared to 30.70% in 2011. Slightly over 80% of Labour Party and National Party voters give both their party vote and electorate vote to the same party.
Source: The Electoral Commission.
New Zealand First vote splitting data above suggests more Labour voters vote New Zealand First than National Party voters by a noticeable margin. 1/3rd of voters who gave their party vote to New Zealand First voted Labour with their electorate vote. This compares to one in five New Zealand First voters who gave their electorate vote to the National Party.
Source: The Electoral Commission.
It’s a different story with the Conservative Party. A good 40% of Conservative Party voters give their electorate vote to National. This compares to a 10% split to the Labour Party.
The National Party has much to gain from the collapse of the Conservative Party as does fellow populist party New Zealand First. This split vote analysis does not throw much insight into how New Zealand First would benefit from a collapse in the Conservative Party.
If New Zealand First picks up a significant amount of the current party vote for the Conservative Party if the latter was to fold, New Zealand First will pick up one or two list seats in the next general election giving it the balance of power.
The only thing that could be said is the lack of Labour voters among Conservative Party voters suggest they are reluctant to support New Zealand First because in the past it has supported Labour Governments. The Conservative Party effectively promised to support a National Party Government.
A vote for the Conservative Party is a vote for a National Party government. A vote for New Zealand First is much more likely to see a Labour Government. That suggests to me that many Conservative Party voters are National Party voters at heart.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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