Sorry but homeless is no roof over your head, not living in a crowded house
10 Mar 2017 Leave a comment
Waiting for @stevenljoyce’s great leap forward
09 Mar 2017 1 Comment
in international economics, politics - New Zealand

When I first heard of this idea to increase exports by 1/3rd, I immediately thought that the balance of payment balances. Any increase in exports will require a matching increase in imports unless we want to start exporting 10% of our GDP, running a trade surplus of 10% of our GDP relative to where it is now.

Countries do not normally embrace the Dutch disease. This is a large appreciation of the currency after an export boom will deindustrialise the import competing sectors and the non-booming export sectors. The exchange rate appreciation brought on by the export boom and heavy demand for New Zealand foreign exchange by foreigners will cause a large switch in consumer spending towards imports.

If exports are to go up by 10% of GDP, imports must too unless there is a change in incentives to invest and save in New Zealand and abroad. As Barro explains
The current-account balance is the difference between a country’s total income and its spending on consumption and investment (and net transfers abroad).
The current account is the difference between national saving — income not spent on consumption — and domestic investment. To think about why the ratio of the current-account deficit to GDP is large, ask why the ratio of investment to GDP is high or why the national saving rate is low.
Current accounts go into surplus or deficit because there is an international trade in savings. We either import the savings of others or export NZ savings. When net exports are positive, we are exporting our savings, when exports are negative, we are importing the savings of others.
The capital account surplus, otherwise known to scaremongering and export fetish types as the current account deficit, is the extent to which foreigners are willing to lend their savings to New Zealanders to buy imports in excess of export receipts.
When the current account is in surplus as it certainly must if we increased exports by 10 percentage points of GDP, New Zealanders would be lending a substantial amount of their savings to the rest of the world. What is the point of an export boom if we do not spend some of it?
It is just pedantic to point out the few countries outside of the European Union export more than 1/3rd of their GDP. That is just raining on Steven Joyce’s parade. Exports are still less than 30% of GDP in 2016 as the graphic below shows.

Source: OECD Factbook 2016.
@women_nz gender didn’t use Claudia Goldin’s research
08 Mar 2017 2 Comments
in applied price theory, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, politics - New Zealand Tags: Claudia Goldin, gender wage gap
Dear Deputy Prime Minister,
Earlier this week in your capacity as Minister of Women’s Affairs you sponsored research on the causes of the gender wage gap in New Zealand.
That just published research was seriously incomplete. The Ministry of Women’s Affairs advised today that they were aware of the work of Claudia Goldin but did not reference it.
MWA ignored the research of the world’s top female labour economist Claudia Goldin. Her research shows that the causes of the gender wage gap are completely different to what you have suggested in the research you launched earlier this week and calls for novel policy solutions that are in a completely different ballpark to those that you have raised this week.
When education and accumulated job experience faded away as the statistical explanation of the causes of the gender wage gap, which the research you launched confirmed, Goldin explored how the organisation of work drove what remains. She called this the last chapter of the gender wage gap.
She found that jobs where the willingness to work very long hours, very specific hours and/or maintain continuous contact with co-workers or clients are highly prized and disproportionately rewarded was central to explaining the gender wage gap for well-paid workers.
Both her research and that you sponsored this week shows that the gender wage gap is close to zero for the bottom half of the wage distribution but the wage gap is 20% or more for professionals in the top 10% of wage earners.
Rather than hypothesise that employers suddenly develop an unconscious bias against successful career professionals because they are female, Goldin looked deeply into how the organisation of work and design of jobs affected how workers were paid and how women made choices about their careers and what they majored in at university in anticipation of these demanding or rat race jobs.
Goldin referred to pharmacy as the most family friendly occupation in America because pharmacists are completely interchangeable and in America the great majority of them are employed by Walmart and other big companies. Few are self-employed. The only advantage of working long hours in the pharmacy profession is you are very tired at the end of the week.
Goldin contrasted that with law or finance sector jobs which are rat race jobs.
Rat race jobs such as these disproportionately reward people who are willing to work very long hours, work very rigid hours and/or show up whenever the client wants them anywhere in the world. These jobs also severely penalise even the shortest interruption in your career track. You come back reporting to the people you hired 12-24 months ago!
After starting on the same pay, large gender wage gaps in high-powered professional occupations emerge after 5-10 years into a career as successful professionals power up to become partners or highflyers.
Importantly, Goldin found one counterfactual to this large wage gap for high-powered professionals. If your husband earns less, there is no wage gap with your MBA classmates at Harvard but you do work fewer hours per week.
Goldin’s study of the Harvard and Beyond longitudinal study was corroborated by a study she did of the top 100 occupations in the American Community Survey. The gender wage gap is limited to rat race jobs.
Goldin argued that the last chapter of the gender wage gap dependents on changing the way in which we organise work.
That is a profoundly ambitious agenda because much of the way in which high-powered professionals must work long hours and be always on call for clients is from the demands of their clients. For example, you want your lawyer to show up in court on time every time and always be available to you when you are in trouble. The legal system does not work in any other way because of the possibility of urgent applications to court etc.
Women anticipate this because, as an example, female surgeons tend to specialise in areas where they can schedule operations in advance rather than having to rush in to perform emergency surgery.
I suggest to you that you should think more deeply about the quality of advice you have just received from the causes of the gender wage gap in New Zealand.
That advice to you is profoundly at odds with the latest thinking in modern labour economics on what the causes are and what the solutions must now be for the last chapter of the gender wage gap.
A postscript has the key publications of Claudia Goldin to show why she is the world’s leading female labour economist without a doubt. You were not advised of her findings.
Cheers,
Jim Rose
Selected publications of Claudia Goldin on the labour economics of gender
- 2016 “The Most Egalitarian of All Professions: Pharmacy and the Evolution of a Family Friendly Occupation,” (with L. Katz), Journal of Labor Economics (forthcoming).
- 2014 “A Grand Gender Convergence: Its Last Chapter,” American Economic Review 104 (April), Presidential Address, pp. 1091-119.
- 2014 “A Pollution Theory of Discrimination: Male and Female Differences in Occupations and Earnings.” In L. Boustan, C. Frydman, and R. Margo, Human Capital and History: The American Record (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), pp. 313-48.
- 2011 “The Cost of Workplace Flexibility for High-Powered Professionals” (with L. Katz), The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 638 (November), pp. 45-67.
- 2010 “Dynamics of the Gender Gap among Young Professionals in the Corporate and Financial Sectors” (with M. Bertrand and L. Katz), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2 (July 2010), pp. 228-55.
- 2008 “Transitions: Career and Family Life Cycles of the Educational Elite,” American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 98 (May), pp. 363-69.
- 2006 “The ‘Quiet Revolution’ That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, (Ely Lecture), 96 (May), pp. 1-21.
- 2006 “The Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the Gender Gap in College” (with L. Katz and I. Kuziemko), Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (Fall), pp. 133-56.
- 2006 “The Rising (and then Declining) Significance of Gender.” In F. D. Blau, M. C. Brinton, and D. B. Grusky, eds., The Declining Significance of Gender? New York: Russell Sage Foundation, pp. 67-101.
- 2004 “From the Valley to the Summit: A Brief History of the Quiet Revolution that Transformed Women’s Work,” Regional Review, Q1 vol. 14 (2004), pp. 5-12.
- 2004 “Making a Name: Surnames of College Women at Marriage and Beyond” (with M. Shim), Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18 (Spring 2004): 143-60.
- 2002 “The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women’s Career and Marriage Decisions” (with L. Katz), Journal of Political Economy 110 (August): 730-70.
- 2000 “Orchestrating Impartiality: The Impact of Blind Auditions on the Sex Composition of Orchestras” (with C. Rouse), American Economic Review (September): 715-41.
- 1997 “Career and Family: College Women Look to the Past.” In F. Blau and R. Ehrenberg, eds., Gender and Family Issues in the Workplace. New York: Russell Sage Press, pp. 20-58.
- 1995 “The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History.” In T. P. Schultz, ed., Investment in Women’s Human Capital and Economic Development. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, pp. 61-90.
- 1991 “Marriage Bars: Discrimination Against Married Women Workers from the 1920s to the 1950s.” In Henry Rosovsky, David Landes, and Patrice Higonnet, eds., Favorites of Fortune: Technology, Growth, and Economic Development since the Industrial Revolution. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, pp. 511-36.
No progress at the top in 20 years or compensating differences not measured in data on cash wages?
08 Mar 2017 2 Comments
in discrimination, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand Tags: compensating differences, gender wage gap, glass ceiling, work life balance
My favourite @FairnessNZ graphic
05 Mar 2017 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, economic growth, economic history, economics of regulation, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand Tags: alternative facts, Employment Contracts Act, labour market reform, neoliberalism, Rogernomics
Source: Low Wage Economy | New Zealand Council of Trade Unions – Te Kauae Kaimahi, with extra annotations by this blogger.
To paint pre-1984 New Zealand, pre-neoliberal New Zealand as a fairly egalitarian paradise, Max Rashbrooke is an example, is to ignore two thirds of the population and the inequalities they suffered:
“New Zealand up until the 1980s was fairly egalitarian, apart from Maori and women, our increasing income gap started in the late 1980s and early 1990s,” says Rashbrooke. “These young club members are the first generation to grow up in a New Zealand really starkly divided by income.”
Racism and patriarchy can sit comfortably with a fairly egalitarian society if you are to believe the vision of the Twitter Left as to their good old days.
John Quiggin refers to the period in Australia known as the Menzies Era as part of his golden age of the mixed economy. The Menzies Era was most of the 23 years of uninterrupted conservative party rule between 1949 and 1972. The actual Menzies Era was the period up to 1966 when Liberal Party Prime Minister Sir Robert Menzies retired
Calling all #Tories4Kelvin, not too late for a last stand for merit-based promotion
04 Mar 2017 Leave a comment
Charles Waldegrave concedes @TaxpayersUnion critique of @LivingWageNZ
02 Mar 2017 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, labour economics, personnel economics, politics - New Zealand
The godfather of the NZ living wage, Charles Waldegrave, conceded that different people are hired after a living wage policy is adopted. That is precisely my critique of the living wage in my recent report for the Taxpayers’ Union.
I summarised that report at public hearings on the living wage at the Hutt City Council last night where the living wage movement also made submissions.

My critique is that higher calibre people will crowd out minimum wage workers from vacancies for which they were previously hired because they are paid the living wage of $20.20 per hour rather than the minimum wage of $15.75 per hour. Employers expect better recruits if they pay more.
The living wage movement and the Taxpayers’ Union are in complete agreement on the minimum wage being crowded out of living wage vacancies in the future by high-calibre applicants attracted by the $20.20 pay. My submission to the Hutt City Council last night is below:
Remarks to the Hutt City Council Finance Committee
The Achilles heel of a living wage at councils is they still must hire on merit. Employees at the time of the living wage rise to $20.20 per hour gain, but their replacements will come from jobs on a similar pay rate to merit short-listing.
Ratepayers pay above-market wages forever for a one-time poverty reduction for existing council employees. A living wage will not lift recruits from poverty because they will be earning a similar pay in their last job to merit shortlisting.
The practical upshot of a living wage is a council is raising its hiring standards. The lower-paid breadwinners currently hired for council jobs are shut out by a living wage policy. Seventeen out of 33 Wellington City parking wardens were not rehired when their service was brought in house as living wage jobs.
The experience with large minimum wage increases in service jobs in American malls and restaurants is employers respond to the wage increase by being choosier in their hiring. Employers expect recruits to be more experienced and arrive with the necessary skills rather than be trained on the-job.
Living wage advocates happily concede that the quality of recruitment pools improves after a living wage policy is adopted. They call this professionalisation of entry-level jobs. They do not ask what happens to the workers who are no longer shortlisted for living wage jobs. They should.
A living wage is linked to the sum of money needed to raise a family. Yet 40% of a living wage increase for workers with families will be lost to income tax and reductions in Working for Families.
The cruel reality is low income families are worse off, not better off, after the introduction of a living wage. Their breadwinners are no longer shortlisted for council jobs because of the raised hiring standard. While advocates have the best of intentions, they hurt the very families they earnestly want to help.
Jim Rose
Research Fellow
Taxpayers Union
1 March 2017
This dress would have been OK with @NZGreens if it was a burqa
28 Feb 2017 Leave a comment
in discrimination, economics of education, economics of religion, gender, liberalism, politics - New Zealand

As Catherine Delahunty MP said after visiting a fundamentalist religious community in New Zealand:
I looked at the gorgeous, yet regimented girls in their identical clothing and wondered how a physicist, an international lawyer or a plumber might blossom if the only role models she was exposed to were those in her own community. We agreed to disagree, because you can’t argue with religious certainty and a literal interpretation of a religious text. This community feels they are under attack by people like me and throughout the day the women and men I met did their best to share their vision of a safe, structured and practical world led entirely by men who consult with women.
More @NZGreens fantasies about terrorism! Do non-Western terrorist murders not count?
28 Feb 2017 Leave a comment
If it would all have been different but for a UN mandate for the Iraqi war, Secretary of State Powell simply should have worked harder. I do wonder what the Afghan based jihadists are fighting for given that punitive expedition had UN authorisation after 9/11.

Source: New Zealand Intelligence and Security Bill Government Bill As reported from the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee, Minority Report of the New Zealand Greens.



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