The key role of housing costs in disaster recovery @ericcrampton @JordNZ #nzeq

The evidence abroad after earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding, tornados, and wartime bombing is that for growing cities, disasters, including carpet bombing and atomic bombs, are only temporary set-backs with few long-run economic and population consequences. A few years after a disaster, these cities even recover the industries they had before their calamities.

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For growing cites, the loss of housing and other destruction does not affect the underlying demand from workers and businesses to be at the location. Florida has prospered despite over twenty hurricanes striking since 1988 and five of the six most damaging Atlantic hurricanes of all time striking since 1988.

Cities that are already in decline drop down onto an even faster downward population and economic trend after a major natural disaster. A large scale destruction of housing takes away the one compensating feature of these declining cities, which was cheap housing.

Housing prices in declining cities are usually well below construction costs. Low living costs partly offset the relative lack of local economic opportunity in these cities. New Orleans is an example of a declining city that did not recover fully from a disaster for this reason.

After Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans had much higher costs of housing because of flood damage but there were limited local economic opportunities to attract back old and new residents. About 20 per cent of the Katrina evacuees did not return.

Natural disasters be they earthquakes or hurricanes turn declining cities and towns from a dump with cheap housing to a dump with expensive housing. They can be a killer blow.

The main policy enabler of growing cities in the USA has been the avoidance of land use regulations that raise housing costs. Over the past 20 years, the fastest growing U.S. regions have not been those with the highest income or most attractive climates.

Flexible housing supply is the key determinant of regional growth. Land use regulations drive housing supply and determine which regions are growing. A regional approach to enabling increases in land and housing supply might reduce the tendency of many localities to block new construction.

How to get back to the eastern suburbs from the CBD after an earthquake #eqnz

Take the bus. But not a trolley bus. We were going to walk home (7.8 km) but once we got to the edge of Mount Victoria, bus drivers were picking people up.

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Buses could not get into the centre of town because of gridlock, so drivers showed the initiative to go to the perimeter of the CBD and going back out and in on their normal routes. They picked up many people. Do not start me on how useless trolley buses are after a natural disaster

#Uber price gouging trebled US post-disaster supply @MaxRashbrooke @EricCrampton #nzeq

Source: Hurricane Sandy / Pricing Update.

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US, Australian and NZ real house prices, March 1975 to June 2016

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Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed.

Gareth Morgan has fallen for the oldest populist delusion

In founding his own political party, Gareth Morgan has fallen to the populist delusion that all that is needed is for a great leader to get in who is one of us rather than one of them and she will be alright.

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Source: About – The Opportunities Party.

In common with all populists, Morgan believes there is one will of the people frustrated by a conniving elite rather than many clashing visions of the good life that politicians must balance. Judis explains

Leftwing populists champion the people against an elite or an establishment. Theirs is a vertical politics of the bottom and middle, arrayed against the top.

Rightwing populists champion the people against an elite that they accuse of favouring a third group, which can consist, for instance, of immigrants, Islamists, or African American militants. Rightwing populism is triadic: it looks upward, but also down upon an out group.

Leftwing populism is historically different to socialist or social democratic movements. It is not a politics of class conflict, and it does not necessarily seek the abolition of capitalism. It is also different to a progressive or liberal politics that seeks to reconcile the interests of opposing classes and groups. It assumes a basic antagonism between the people and an elite at the heart of its politics.

John Rawls talked about the need for reasonable pluralism because so many people have different ideas of the way to go forward. Political institutions must be designed with that diversity in mind as David Gordon explained in a book review

The situation that drives Rawls to his theory is that of people in a large society like the United States who are divided by conflicting conceptions of the good. Some of these conceptions may be better than others, and one may in fact be the correct one: Rawls does not commit himself on this question. But none of these conceptions can be shown to be true in the strong sense that it would be unreasonable for anyone to reject it. This state of affairs Rawls terms “the fact of reasonable pluralism.”

Given reasonable pluralism, it would be wrong for the holders of one conception to impose their views on others; respect for others requires that we defend our political views with reasons others could acknowledge.

Our aim, Rawls holds, should not be a mere modus vivendi with those who profess other conceptions of the good. Rather, we should seek a stable society in which people decide disputed questions by democratic discussion.

The idea is to have a political system with sufficient checks and balances that whoever is in power does not do too much harm nor gets seriously out of alignment with the wishes of the electorate. That was the idea behind MMP: divide power between more parties and make all elections close.

It goes back to James Madison’s idea that governments are not populated by angels and so the powers of government and how they are distributed should take account of that. The idea is politicians behave in line with public interest because of the institutions that constrain and shape their choices.

It is wise to design constitutional safeguards to minimise the damage done when those crazies to the right or left of you get their chance in office, as they will sooner or later rather than focus on the powers you and those that currently agree with you should have in your few days in which you fleetingly have a majority.

Too many policies and ideas of the one political party or another assume that they are the face of the future, rather than just another political party that will hold power as often as not and always for an uncertain time. Too many policies and ideas of the Left assume that they are the face of the future, rather than just another political party that will hold power as often as not.

.@JudithCollinsMP showed that @JacindaArdern does not know when to stop digging

Judith Collins today in Question Time showed that Jacinda Ardern does not know when to stop digging. Ardern quoted a snippet of the question put to the police minister at the recent police conference.

That selectivity allowed Collins to right to quote the conference question in full and her full answer, which was not just about money poverty but also about

“… a poverty of ideas, a poverty of parental responsibility, a poverty of love, a poverty of caring …”.

Later Collins said she does not agree with Labour saying today that poverty causes crime.

The Labour Party showed that it is no longer rooted in working class values when it argues that poverty is not linked to a poverty of responsibility and of parental love.

There are plenty of poor people who do not resort to crime and who despise those that do, in part because they often make them the victims of their crimes including burglary.

#WomensBoatToGaza @MaramaDavidson silent on Hamas rocket attacks

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#homeslessnessinquiry champions contracting-out @NZLabour @NZGreens @Maori_Party

Did they swallow a dead rat! After complaining bitterly about the privatisation of social housing and the contracting out of government services and in particular social services generally, the New Zealand Labour Party, the New Zealand Greens and the Maori Party all accepted that part of the solution to better emergency housing services to the homelessness is to fund community housing providers to build them houses. A greater role for the private sector, be it the NGO sector, in solving pressing social problems.

Source: Cross-party enquiry into homelessness.

It is pious to say that NGOs should build new social housing but existing social housing should not be sold to them to administer better than the bureaucrats.

The private sector has always been the last line of the defence for the social safety net for the homeless. Hotels and motels are used for emergency housing. There are plenty of them and it takes very little time to book into one as long as WINZ sends along the documentation to guarantee payment.

The report of Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party included reference to the Kate Amore data on homelessness which comfirms its credibility. That data shows that homelessness has fallen significantly in NZ since 2001 and 2006.

Homelessness is a by-product of bureaucratic inefficiency. So few people are actually sleeping rough or in shelters on any one night that is really an issue of why are those people are not in a shelter or permanent social housing.

The problem of homelessness is the efficiency of the bureaucracy in identifying these people, putting them in temporary quarters be at a hotel or motel if necessary, and then moving them into social housing.

No one is surprised at a homelessness shelter is run by a church or charity all with the assistance of government funding. No one seriously expects bureaucrats to be any good at running homeless shelters or the hotels or motels where the homeless are occasionally booked in.

Justice Scalia on Hobson’s pledge

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Crime victimisation rates of Maori compared

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Source: New Zealand Crime and Safety Survey, Resources & downloads | New Zealand Ministry of Justice.

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Source: New Zealand Crime and Safety Survey, Resources & downloads | New Zealand Ministry of Justice.

George Orwell on the left and political correctness?

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More on the emergence of Generation Rent in New Zealand

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Source: People: The Social Report 2016 – Te pūrongo oranga tangata.

Discharge without conviction is for offences more serious than argy-bargy after closing time

People get discharges without convictions for offences far more serious than a little bit too much argy-bargy after a few too many with friends after closing time.

Source: Discharge without conviction numbers slump | Radio New Zealand News.

If an offences serious enough to jeopardise your job, an employer would sack you in any case because you are found guilty rather than the entry of a conviction. Allowing criminals to conceal their criminal convictions from future employers allows them to conceal their bad character. It puts law-abiding citizens at a disadvantage to criminals.

Nice members of the middle class are put off committing offences in the first place because of career concerns. In any case, the Spent Convictions Act allows a way out after 7 years.

A few years ago, the Court of Appeal tightened up the criteria to a conviction being all out of proportion of the offence. That means burglars, robbers, sex offenders and thugs got away with it still but less so in the past.

In the past, you just come to court and asked for discharge without conviction. Now you must produce a considerable amount of evidence of the undue career cost.

Equivalents to a discharge without conviction apply in the criminal law of England and Wales, Scotland, Canada and Australia.

.@PPTANews @TraceyMartinMP made best ever argument 4 #charterschools @maori_party

Talk about giving the giving the game away. The only way a state school can do as well as a chartered school in delivering to students is giving it more money than a chartered school can do to deliver the same results.

That is the best ever argument for a charter school, they provide better value for the education dollar. Is my logic faulty?

Poverty in NZ has been falling steadily for 20 years despite the dead hand of neoliberalism

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Source: Population with low incomes: The Social Report 2016 – Te pūrongo oranga tangata.

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