Trends in the real minimum wage, PPP, Australia, New Zealand, USA and UK since 2000

Figure 1: real minimum wage, 2013 constant prices, purchasing power parity, US$, Australia, New Zealand, USA and UK

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Source: OECD StatExtract.

The MMP what-ifs if Colin Craig been deposed as Conservative Party leader

If Colin Craig is deposed tomorrow as the leader of the Conservative Party of New Zealand, his party will fall apart and run as a rump at the next election. The tables below discuss what might happen to the party vote that drifts back to the major parties with the collapse of the Conservative Party.

Table 1: 2014 general election status quo

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs   % of MPs
ACT New Zealand 0.69% 1 1 0 1   0.83%
Green Party 10.70% 14 0 14 14   11.57%
Labour Party 25.13% 32 27 5 32   26.45%
Māori Party 1.32% 2 1 1 2   1.65%
National Party 47.04% 60 41 19 60   49.59%
New Zealand First Party 8.66% 11 0 11 11   9.09%
United Future 0.22% 0 1 0 1 * 0.83%
Totals 93.76% 120 71 50 121   100.00%

As the table 2 below shows, if about 2% of the party vote of the Conservative party drifts back to National, and 2/10th of a percentage point of that party vote of the Conservative Party going to United Future, the National Party not only wins a majority in Parliament, the overhang in Parliament disappears as well. The United Future Party seat comes off the representation of the Labour Party if its party vote exceeds 0.4%. There are no other changes of note.

Table 2: 2014 general election with Conservative party rump

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs   % of MPs
ACT New Zealand 0.89% 1 1 0 1 0.83%
Green Party 10.70% 13 0 13 13 10.83%
Labour Party 25.43% 31 27 4 31 25.83%
Māori Party 1.32% 2 1 1 2 1.67%
National Party 49.07% 61 41 20 61 50.83%
New Zealand First Party 9.16% 11 0 11 11 9.17%
United Future 0.42% 1 1 0 1 0.83%
Totals 96.99% 120 71 49 120   100.00%

The National Party almost won a majority in the last election so only a small amount of the Conservative Party’s party vote drifting back to it more so than the other parties can boost it to 61 votes and an absolute majority in its own right. Tomorrow is a big day for the future of New Zealand politics and the chances of the Left winning government any time soon.

Education and single motherhood

The opportunity cost of expressive politics: fossil fuels disinvestment versus actually doing something that might help

image

via Divestment and Symbolic Action on Fossil Fuels | The Energy Collective.

Milton Friedman on Equality, Family & Lottery

Gender differences in PISA scores, 2012, UK, USA, New Zealand and Australia

Boys’ dominance just about endures in maths: at age 15 they are, on average, the equivalent of three months’ schooling ahead of girls. In science the results are fairly even.

But in reading, where girls have been ahead for some time, a gulf has appeared. In all 64 countries and economies in the study, girls outperform boys. The average gap is equivalent to an extra year of schooling.

Figure 1: : Gender differences (boys – girls) in student performance in reading, mathematics and science in PISA 2012

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Source: OECD family database.

HT: The weaker sex | The Economist.

Yield of organic crops as percentage of conventional crops

Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy by gender, Anglo-Saxon countries

Figure 1: life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of women, Anglo-Saxon countries, 2010

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Source: OECD family database.

Figure 2: life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of men, Anglo-Saxon countries, 2010

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Source: OECD family database

Would a referendum on euthanasia pass in New Zealand?

A New Zealand First MP along with his populist leader have proposed that the morally tricky question of euthanasia be addressed in New Zealand by a referendum rather than by a vote on a private member’s bill in Parliament.

Although about 80% of the public support euthanasia when asked about it in principle, when the 120 members in New Zealand Parliament elected by proportional representation are asked to vote on it in practice with procedures for safeguards, be last time this was tried in 2003 the Bill failed by three votes. The reason why it failed to pass was a substantial number of MPs who voted against the bill was reservations about abuse.

A badly drafted bill may offer insufficient assurances to some MPs about preventing abuse and ensuring people who are depressed are not offered options that are not in their best interests.

Others have moral or religious objections. The religious objections were summarised by Blackstone, in his Commentaries on the Laws of England, where he wrote that suicide was also a spiritual offence:

…in evading the prerogative of the Almighty, and rushing into his immediate presence uncalled for

If a referendum was to fail, that would make our morally timid MPs even more timid about ever passing a bill on euthanasia.

There is a considerable risk that a referendum on euthanasia will fail because people don’t know exactly what they are voting for. Because of that they will listen to those  who opposed euthanasia who will point to the risk of abuse. A referendum strengthens the hands of those that oppose euthanasia. They can play to the lack of detail on what exactly is to be approved.

Many people have very strong views on exactly when and when not euthanasia is permissible because of their views about the sanctity of life and the risk of abuse. The recent High Court judgement on an unsuccessful application  are an exception to the criminal law on assisted suicide said that:

The sanctity of human life principle underpins the criminal law relating to culpable homicide. It was said by Blackstone to be the first rule of English law.

When making an exception to the first rule of law, people want to know exactly what they are voting for and exactly what safeguards apply the proposed exceptions. A Referendum does not offer that indispensable option. Writing on a Bill on end of life choice is legally and morally tricky.

Many Bills have failed such as recently in the Scottish Parliament and in 2003 in the New Zealand Parliament because they were badly drafted and were considered by many  to offer insufficient protection of the vulnerable against abuse and melancholy.

Even when courts rule favourably on the matter, such as in Canada with its recent Supreme Court decision under its Bill of Rights, that court suspended its judgement upholding the right to euthanasia for 12 month so that the Canadian Parliament could work out the ever so vital details by passing a Bill. As the Supreme Court of United Kingdom recently ruled:

… unless the court can be satisfied that any exception to the subsection can be operated in such a way as to generate an acceptably small risk that assistance will be afforded to those vulnerable to pressure to seek to commit suicide, it cannot conclude that the absolute prohibition in the subsection is disproportionate to its legitimate aim.

That is the essence of reservations about end of life choice. Blackstone’s ratio applies to standards of proof in criminal proceedings: it is better that 10 guilty go free than one innocent suffer.

Those with reservations about end of life choice have the same concerns that motivated Blackstone’s ratio. Their reservations are focused on few cases of abuse not justifying the benefits of going gently into that good night by making exceptions from an absolute prohibition under the criminal law against assisted suicide for the terminally ill despite they being of sound mind and independent judgement.

The reverse gender tertiary education gap for ages 25–34, Anglo-Saxon countries

Figure 1: % population who have attained at least tertiary education, age 25 – 34 by gender (2012)

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Source: OECD family database.

Figure 2 shows that the stark reversing of the gender gap in educational attainment shown in figure 1 was somewhat more recent in the US, UK and to a lesser extent in Ireland and Australia. In the UK and USA, educational attainment by gender was pretty equal for the earlier generation of graduates as compared to today’s 25 to 34-year-olds. The reversing of the gender gap in educational attainment dates back several decades in Canada and New Zealand.

Figure 2: % population who have attained at least tertiary education, age 45 – 54 by gender (2012)

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Source: OECD family database.

Gender wage gaps for tertiary educated and high school educated full-time workers in Anglo-Saxon countries

In another blow for the inherent inequality of bargaining power between workers and employers, and for the patriarchy, the wage gap is larger for tertiary educated female full-time workers aged 35-44 than it is for female full-time workers who just finished high school.

Figure 1: gender wage gap for mean full-time, full-year earnings for tertiary educated workers aged 35 – 44, 2012

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Source: OECD family database.

To add insult to injury, the gender wage gap further tertiary educated female workers is quite large in the USA but quite small for high school graduates.

Figure 2: gender wage gap for mean full-time, full-year earnings for  below upper secondary educated workers aged 35 – 44, 2012

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Source: OECD family database.

Canada seems to be a bit of a patriarchal hellhole while New Zealand does pretty well in gender wage gaps.

The gender gap  in figure 1 and in figure 2 are unadjusted and calculated as the difference between mean average annual full-time, full-year earnings of men and of women as a percentage of men’s earnings.

Milton Friedman on the essence of the Age of the Worker

What are the Anglo-Saxon gender wage gaps for the bottom, median and top deciles?

If there is an inherent inequality of bargaining power between workers and employers, as we are so frequently lectured by those in the self appointed know, why is the gender wage gap so small at the bottom of the earnings distribution?

Figure 1: % Gender gap in full-time earnings at the bottom decile of earnings distribution, 2012

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Source: OECD family database

Figure 2: % Gender gap in full-time earnings at the median decile of earnings distribution, 2012

image

Source: OECD family database

Figure 3: % Gender gap in full-time earnings at the top decile of earnings distribution, 2012

image

Source: OECD family database

The gender gaps are unadjusted, and are calculated as the difference between the earnings of men and women for their respective earnings percentile.

What will Labour do about the supply of land in Auckland?

The essence of the Left over Left

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