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Winston’s big port up North won’t have any business
10 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, industrial organisation, politics - New Zealand, rentseeking, transport economics
In the first shot in the pork-barrelling for a by-election, veteran New Zealand populist Winston Peters wants to stop the expansion of the Port of Auckland and move the extra shipping traffic up north to the Port of Whangarei:
And we will upgrade the Auckland to Northland railway line and build the rail link to your port
The Port of Whangarei is about two hours north by car from Auckland. Auckland is a global city of approaching 2 million. Whangarei is the only city up North, with a population of 50,000.

45% of the import traffic to the Port of Auckland is cars. Around 90% of light vehicle imports in New Zealand come through the Port of Auckland. The rest may go through Littleton.
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Jellicoe and Freyberg wharves are located between the two container terminals. |
Bledisloe multipurpose Wharf |
Striving to move some of this light vehicle imports from the Port of Auckland up north to the Port of Whangarei where they be unloaded from a ship onto trains for a short train ride to Auckland, unloaded again onto trucks all seems unnecessary expense.

Photo: Port of Whangarei.
Auckland appears to have spare container capacity up until at least 2035, so this port up North will simply not have much to do in terms of extra container traffic because it will have to compete on the basis of cost and proximity to markets.

Photo: The Marsden Point Oil Refinery on the opposite shore of Whangarei Harbour.
The traffic that is coming under pressure regarding capacity of the Port of Auckland is multi-cargo traffic such as building materials, vegetables, wheat, vehicles and other goods. The situation is further aggravated by the rapid increase in the number and increased size of cruise ships.
As a good part of the market for the multi cargo traffic is in Auckland, landing them away from their main market just makes no sense and will not happen unless the port of Auckland is prohibited by law from expanding and ships are not allowed to divert to ports such as Wellington and Christchurch.
The number of cruise ships visiting Auckland in the last 10 years to about 90 and is expected to reach one 20 by 2020 and 150 by 2030. That traffic cannot be diverted up north to the Port of Whangarei.

Any export traffic that would be viable to send through the Port of Whangarei up north will already be going through it. Export competitiveness is highly sensitive to costs as exporters must simply take the going price in the international market.
This question should be asked more often about the regulation of purported natural monopolies
09 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
The weight of science in contentious social issues
07 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
in comparative institutional analysis, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: evidence-based policy, expressive voting, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, science and public policy
Ample Proof That Cell Phone Towers DO NOT Cause Cancer
06 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of regulation, health economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: Anti-Science left, Greens, Quacks
Tin foil hat brigade has a recruit in New Zealand. Thousands more cellphone antennas could be installed without community consultation under a proposed environmental rule change.
Green Party environment spokeswoman Julie Anne Genter said the Government appeared to have little regard for environmental outcomes or community input.
“We support National Environmental Standards but they need to be used to protect the environment, not to override the right of local communities to have a say,” she said.
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Who is on zero hours contracts in the UK?
06 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
in job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand Tags: zero hours contracts
Firstly, those on zero hours contracts are overwhelmingly younger people and more often women. Both groups value flexible working hours more than others. That’s why they make up the majority of workers on zero hours contracts.

Also not surprisingly, people on zero hours contracts also tend to be more often in full-time education. Another group that values flexibility in hours. Furthermore, many of those on zero hours contracts have only been in the current job for less than 12 months. Again, suggesting they come from groups that change jobs frequently, which means they can easily quit and find another job if they don’t like a zero-hours contract.

Via Zero-hours contracts in four charts | News | The Guardian
Darwin awards: The Islamic State was backed by 46,000 accounts on Twitter in 2014
06 Mar 2015 1 Comment
in politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: Darwin awards, ISIS, Middle-East politics, Twitter, war on terror
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Every time they tweet they put a well-deserved target on their back.
via Defining and describing the population of ISIS supporters on Twitter | Brookings Institution.
Security cameras in prison showers and the case for private prisons
06 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, entrepreneurship, law and economics, organisational economics, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: do gooders, law and order, prisons
I was listening to a radio show the other day on the introduction of close circuit television into New Zealand prisons that were to be monitored by both male and female guards. This is regarded as an indignity by some because these new close circuit cameras would be in showers and toilets.

The initial commentators on the radio programme immediately said they had watched plenty of TV programs where people were shanked in the showers.

The close circuit television was for the safety of prisoners. Close circuit cameras in all parts of prisons made prisons a safer place and that was that. It was the price of safety, especially for prisoners vulnerable to intimidation and sexual assault.

Greg Newbold, a New Zealand criminologist and an ex-prisoner in itself, then came on air to criticise the introduction of close circuit televisions in showers and other intimate areas such as toilets as an indignity on prisoners. Prisoners have a right to intimate privacy in his view. He said only 12 prisoners had been murdered in the New Zealand prisons since 1979.
Only 12 murders is 12 murders too many. Every one of those murders would have been subject of outrage about the failure of the prison administration from the bleeding hearts brigade.
The most interesting thing that Greg Newbold said on the radio was about how these close circuit television systems first emerged in prisons, initially in the USA.
Close circuit television systems will put throughout prisons initially in private prisons to avoid being sued for wrongful death and injury. The private prisons introduced this rather obvious security measure to reduce liability in the civil courts.
Public prisons are supposedly a safer place for prisoners to be if you listen to the bleeding hearts brigade and the Left over Left. Pubic prisons but never got around introducing what seems to me to be a rather basic security measure in confined areas of prisons. Close circuit television systems would protect both inmates and guards.
The different incentives facing public and hybrid prisons, in this case, exposure to litigation, is an illustration of the superior efficiency of private prisons.

Private prisons did something because it affects the bottom line. One way to reduce liability for deaths and injuries is prison security measures that reduce the number of deaths and injuries in prisons.

More importantly, private prisons have unforgiving critics in the form of the bleeding hearts brigade and Left over Left. No one on the Left will defend or protect a prison that is private from closure out of a knee-jerk defence of the public sector, and in particular, public-sector unions.
Oddly enough the only prison that the Left over Left want to close in New Zealand is the highest performing prison, Mt Eden, which happens to be privately run.

The main problem with private prisons is contracting over quality where it is difficult to define quality and measure performance against quality standards specified in a contract as Andrew Shleifer explains:
…critics of privatization often argue that private contractors would cut quality in the process of cutting costs because contracts do not adequately guard against this possibility
Privatisation for many government services is simply an extension of the make-or-buy decision. Every firm faces a make-or-buy decision – should the firm buy a production input from outside suppliers or should it make what it needs itself with existing or additional internal resources?
As any industry grows, there is more room for more specialised producers to supply to firms of all sizes at a lower cost than in-house production (Stigler 1951, 1987; Levy 1984). As an example, all with the largest firms intermittently hire legal, accounting and many other professional skills from specialists.
By contracting-out to these more specialised and niche suppliers, firms can enjoy all available economies of scale in production unless its needs are unique or the firm has some special competency in producing the input in-house (Lindsay and Maloney 1996; Shughart 1997; Roberts 2004). Firms in most industries capture all available economies of scale at relatively small sizes after which they have a long region of production where their marginal cost of further increases in production are constant (Stigler 1958; Lucas 1978; Barzel and Kochin 1992; Shughart 1997).
Put simply, an entrepreneur makes what he or she cannot buy at the quality preferred through contracting in market:
The case for in-house provision is generally stronger when non-contractible cost reductions have large deleterious effects on quality, when quality innovations are unimportant, and when corruption in government procurement is a severe problem. In contrast, the case for privatization is stronger when quality reducing cost reductions can be controlled through contract or competition, when quality innovations are important, and when patronage and powerful unions are a severe problem inside the government.
The way in which the market process dealt with chiselling on quality where quality reducing cost reductions where costly to control through contract or competition was the emergence of non-profit institutions. The competitive edge of these non-profit institutions was they had fewer incentives to dilute hard to measure qualities of the product transacted.

Any additional profits from this dilution of quality were not distributed to the owners because the non-profit organisation was either run by a charity or was owned mutually by the customers. The proceeds from cutting corners on quality could not be paid out to the owners in dividends because there were none.
Examples of non-profits competing successfully in the market are obvious, such as life insurance. Until recent decades, most life insurance companies were mutually owned by the policyholders. Life insurance companies were mutually owned as an assurance that no one could run off with the money by paying high dividends to the owners before policyholders died many years after they have paid their premiums.
Most private universities are run as non-profit institutions even when they are set up by private developers with profits in mind. The private university itself is owned by a charity with esteemed persons on the board to assure quality and probity. The active involvement of alumni is encouraged as a further guard of the future quality of the University from which they graduated. The private developers make their profit on the surrounding land as the university grows and prospers. Land grant universities in the USA may have operated this way.
Other examples of the emergence of non-profit institutions to assure quality in a competitive market are private schools, private hospitals, and private day care centres where concerns about the private provision of a quality service arise, with or without justification. Andrew Shleifer again:
…entrepreneurial not-for-profit firms can be more efficient than either the government or the for-profit private suppliers precisely … where soft incentives are desirable, and competitive and reputational mechanisms do not soften the incentives of private suppliers [to dilute quality].
Of course, any proper analysis must compare like with like and compare the dismal record of public prisons date in terms of prisoner and prison guard safety and preventing escapes with any scandals in the private prison systems. Few do that.
Bizarro lefties alert: @MaxRashbrooke “Maori and Pasifika children were disproportionately in poverty, highlighting systemic discrimination!”
05 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
in discrimination, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality
Lindsay Mitchell wrote a fine reply to the Amnesty International report suggesting that higher rates of child poverty among Māori and Pasifika is evidence of systematic discrimination.
Māori and Pasifika children were disproportionately in poverty, highlighting systemic discrimination
Figure 1: Real equivalised median household income (before housing costs) by ethnicity, 1988 to 2013 ($2013)

Source: Bryan Perry, Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014).
The facts are clear, whatever systematic discrimination there might be, it must be falling rapidly because of the rapid increases in household real incomes in Mari and Pacific households in the last 20 years.
As shown in figure 1 below, between 1994 and 2010, real equivalised median New Zealand household income rose by 47%; for Māori, this rise was 68%; for Pasifika, the rise in real equivalised median household income was 77%.
Our friends on the Left cannot argue that an income gap is evidence of discrimination while arguing that a rapid closing of that gap is not evidence of falling discrimination? To do this, to paint pre-1984 New Zealand, pre-neoliberal New Zealand as an egalitarian paradise has to ignore up to two thirds of the population and the inequalities they suffered:
“New Zealand up until the 1980s was fairly egalitarian, apart from Māori and women, our increasing income gap started in the late 1980s and early 1990s,” says Max Rashbrooke.
The large improvements in Māori incomes since 1992 were based on rising Māori employment rates, fewer Māori on benefits or zero incomes, more Māori moving into higher paying jobs, and greater Māori educational attainment (Dixon and Maré 2007). Labour force participation rates of Māori increased from 45% in the late 1980s to about 62% in the last few years. Māori unemployment reached a 20-year low of 8 per cent from 2005 to 2008.
Rapid social improvement among Māori and Pasifika is simply ignored as an inconvenient truth for the Left over Left.
Who has the highest minimum wage in purchasing power parity terms?
05 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
in labour economics, minimum wage, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: minimum wage, purchasing power parity
@greencatherine @PPTAWeb Teachers union concedes that NZ charter schools improve student outcomes?
04 Mar 2015 1 Comment
in economics of education, human capital, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, unions Tags: charter schools, School choice
The New Zealand teachers union went into a very curious rant against chartered schools in a letter to the Dominion Post today. Instead of saying that they do not improve student outcomes, the usual propaganda, the author of the letter focused on system-wide outcomes after the introduction of charter schools.

It is usual for the teachers union to say that the schools themselves fail rather than argue that adding five or 10 schools to a system of thousands of public schools in New Zealand will through competition from these few schools to lift the entire system. For example, the teachers union sets a very high standard for the charter schools:
The United States has had charter schools for a more than a decade and there has been no measurable improvement in that country’s overall performance in literacy, maths and science. The United States lags far behind New Zealand on recent performance tests in all those areas.
It is unwise to say there is no evidence because that leaves you open to the cheap shot that will find one piece of evidence and then ask why you making things up. For example, the Maxim Institute found that:
The evidence from the small body of research that exists is mixed: some studies have found the presence of charter schools to have had a small negative impact on pupil achievement in regular state schools, while other studies have found charter schools to have had either a negligible or small positive impact…
There my work is done. All I had to show was that there was some evidence showing that charter schools improved the performance of neighbouring schools.

Why is the teachers union pretending that this evidence is not there when it can be found and so easily on the Internet?

Is the reason that the evidence that charter schools improve the outcomes of students that go to them is so strong that they have to move to new reasons for opposing them? The evidence is some chartered schools do very well and in particular for minority students. Their greatest strength is they are closed if they fail. No similar standard applies to failing public schools.

At a minimum, the teachers unions have conceded that the charter schools seem to work and that they do no harm to the rest of the system? If there was evidence of that, they would be quick to put it forward.





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