— EPI Chart Bot (@epichartbot) December 26, 2015
More evidence from the @economicpolicy institute of the great success of the 1996 US federal welfare reforms
17 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, gender, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, welfare reform Tags: child poverty, family poverty, single mothers, single parents, US welfare reforms
The prediction market speaks on the Republican presidential primaries
16 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in financial economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election, prediction markets
The pros and cons of America’s primary electoral system
16 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, politics - USA
Reagan began seeking a rapprochement with the Kremlin 15 months before Gorbachev took office, this Day 1984
16 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, war and peace Tags: Cold War, game theory, mutually assured destruction, nuclear deterrence, nuclear war, Ronald Reagan
Reagan spoke of common concerns, the mutual desire for peace and the urgent need to address “dangerous misunderstandings” between Moscow and Washington.
NZ, Oz & US real housing price index, January 1975 – September 2015 @philtwyford @JulieAnneGenter
14 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of regulation, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, urban economics
Notice that New Zealand housing prices were pretty flat until the passage of the Resource Management Act in 1993.

@garethmorgannz are the poor are just like everyone else except that they have less money?
14 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economics of education, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, welfare reform
There is a large literature on what money can buy in terms of improved child outcomes. Central to the left-wing view is the poorer are just like everyone else but they have less money. Susan Mayer, a proud registered Democrat all her life, kick-started the literature challenging this with her book in 1997.

More money does help the children of poor families but the effect is considerably less–and more complicated–than is generally thought because as Mayer says ‘once children’s basic material needs are met, characteristics of their parents become more important to how they turn out than anything additional money can buy.
Doubling the income of poor families would lift most children above the poverty line, it would have virtually no effect on their test scores and only a slight effect on social behaviour. Among her findings, which have largely survive the test of time, are:
- Higher parental income has little impact on reading and mathematics test scores.
- Higher income increases the number of years that children attend school by only one-fifth of a year.
- Higher income does not reduce the amount of time sons are idle as young adults.
- Higher income reduces the probability of daughters growing up to be single mothers by 8 to 20 percent.
Mayer found that as parents have more money to spend, they usually spend the extra money on food, especially food eaten in restaurants; larger homes; and on more automobiles. As a result, children are likely to be better housed and better fed, but not necessarily better educated or better prepared for high-income jobs. Mayer said that her findings do not endorse massive cuts in welfare:
My results do not show that we can cut income support programs with impunity…Indeed, they suggest that income support programs have been relatively successful in maintaining the material living standard of many poor children.
Mayer found that non-monetary factors play a bigger role than previously thought in determining how children overcome disadvantage as she explains. Parent-child interactions appear to be important for children’s success, but the study shows little evidence that a parent’s income has a large influence on parenting practices.
Mayer said that if money alone were responsible for overcoming such problems as unwed pregnancy, low educational achievement and male idleness, states with higher welfare benefits could expect to see reductions in these problems. In reality
once we control all relevant state characteristics, the apparent effect of increasing Aid to Families with Dependent Children benefits is very small.
Social economics has been here before. In the 1960s, the Coleman Report rather than finding that investing in schools improved child outcomes found that most variation between child outcomes depended on family backgrounds. When we talking about schools not matter in too much we are talking about average bad schools and average good school not American inner-city schools into war zones.

Source: Savings, Genes, and Fade-Out, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty.
Behavioural genetics has been a bit of a blow to those that think greater parental investment can raise child outcomes as Bryan Caplan has explained:
Economists like Nobel laureate Gary Becker have been studying the family for decades. Like most modern parents, economists usually take it for granted that “parental investment” has large, lasting effects on adult outcomes.
And yet adoption and twin researchers find surprisingly little evidence for this this assumption(link is external)! With a few notable exceptions, the measured effect of upbringing on adult outcomes is small to zero. Adoptees barely resemble their adopting families, identical twins are much more similar than fraternal twins, and identical twins raised apart are often as similar as identical twins raised together. Almost all traits run in families, but the overarching reason is heredity.
Caplan notes that while it is extremely difficult for parental investments to change the adult outcomes of his children, it is well within his power to give his children a happy childhood.
Trigger warning: American political junkies – the cost of presidential campaigns since Lincoln
14 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, politics - USA, Public Choice
The man most responsible for money in American politics is President Obama. He refused public funding in the 2008 presidential election of $84 million. This is because he could raise 10 times that online. Senator McCain accepted public funding because his fundraising prospects were so poor for the general election.

Source: The Crazy Cost of Becoming President, From Lincoln to Obama | Mother Jones
Here’s how Scandinavian countries pay for their spending
14 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: growth of government, Norway, size of government, Sweden
40% of New Zealanders aged 65 to 69 still work
13 Jan 2016 1 Comment
in labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA
@TBillTheProf shows that SF #livingwage sends hiring standards through the roof
13 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, labour economics, minimum wage, personnel economics, politics - USA Tags: living wage
Recent field research in San Francisco and North Carolina restaurants found that after San Francisco living wage increase, managers were pickier about whom they hire, because they want workers to be worth the higher cost. The San Francisco minimum wage is now $12.25, and all employers are required to offer paid sick days and contribute to their employees’ health insurance.

Source: How worker-friendly laws changed life as a server in San Francisco restaurants – The Washington Post.
The study is useful because of instead of studying the myths and realities about how a higher minimum wage somehow motivates workers to be more productive and offset part or all of its cost to employers, the study investigates how the minimum wage, a living wage, affects hiring standards.
Employers of low skilled, low-wage workers look for workers who are friendly and reliable. As the study concedes, you can teach people the skills they need as long as they are friendly and reliable.

In San Francisco, recruits not only have to be friendly and reliable, they are expected to have experience. The living wage shuts out inexperienced and new workers, which promotes social exclusion.
Minimum wage workers in San Francisco are noticeably older and better educated than those in North Carolina and recruited after more intensive sorting and screening against the hiring standards for the vacancy:
Rather than viewing servers as essentially interchangeable labourers who can be quickly and easily trained if they possess a modicum of personal hygiene and a friendly personality, employers in San Francisco exhibited a clear description of what a professional server was and the explicit and implicit skills required.
The study did not enquire into what happened to applicants who failed to meet the higher hiring standard induced by the living wage increase. As is standard with the champions of the living wage, they do not want to talk about those excluded by the living wage rise.
Some #tax cuts produce more growth than others
12 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, labour economics, politics - USA, public economics Tags: laffer curve
It is the 1960s hippies who are letting marijuana decriminalisation down at the ballot box
11 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: baby boomers, marijuana decriminalisation, rational irrationality, voter demographics
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New study indicates there are 8 Conservative Social Psychologists
11 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of education, politics - USA, Public Choice

Source: New Study Indicates Existence of Eight Conservative Social Psychologists | HeterodoxAcademy.org.

Source: New Study Indicates Existence of Eight Conservative Social Psychologists | HeterodoxAcademy.org.

Source: New Study Indicates Existence of Eight Conservative Social Psychologists | HeterodoxAcademy.org.
HT: Rafe Champion
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