Are the rich getting richer in the USA?

https://twitter.com/Mark_J_Perry/status/646427815693434880/photo/1

The supply-side economics of JFK

Who said the taxpayer was not forward-looking as per the Ricardian equivalence theorem

President Carter said the world would run out of oil by 2010

Deaths in police car chases

https://twitter.com/zzcrockett/status/623975623250161664/photo/1

The price tag of Sanders’s proposals

The Moynihan Report revisited

The decline of the Republican Party in California

728 shot by police by race, 2015 @thecounted @radleybalko @Mark_J_Perry

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Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard time.

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Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard time.

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The dangerous left-wing bias of economists strikes again

The left-wing bias of economists must be taken into account in public policy-making. Any suggestions to regulate the economy, spend our way out of a recession, increase the top tax rate and so on must be discounted for that well-known but little publicised political bias.

Source: Economists Aren’t As Nonpartisan As We Think | FiveThirtyEight

As is not well-known enough, Cardiff and Klein (2005) used voter registration data to rank disciplines at Californian Ivy League universities by Democrat to Republican ratios. Economics is the most conservative social science, with a Democrat to Republican ratio of a mere 2.8 to 1. This can be contrasted with sociology (44 to 1), political science (6.5 to 1) and anthropology (10.5 to 1). 40% of Americans are Democrats, 32% are independents with the balance Republicans.

Zubin Jelveh, Bruce Kogut, and Suresh Naidu confirmed that bias: that the typical economist is a moderate Democrat. They found a 60–40 liberal conservative bias

Jelveh, Kogut, and Naidu also reminded, as many have before them that economics is the most politically diverse of academic professions. Sociology is a notorious left-wing echo chamber as an example. Their most likely view of Jeremy Corbyn is he is a bit of a Tory. Oddly enough, sociologists are the first to point the finger at economists for political bias.

Jelveh, Kogut, and Naidu correlated political donations of more than $200 in the Federal Elections Commission database with the language used in 18,000 journal articles back to the 1970s.

More interestingly, they correlated political bias with the estimates of quantitative effects such as the top tax rate and its impact on labour supply and investment:

We found a (significant) correlation when we compared the ideologies of authors with the numerical results in their papers. That means that a left-leaning economist is more likely to report numerical results aligned with liberal ideology (and the same is true for right-leaning economists and conservative ideology)… liberals think the fiscal multiplier is high, meaning the government can improve economic growth by increasing spending, while conservatives believe the multiplier is close to zero or negative.

They are not suggesting a rigging of the results. Economists tend to sort into the fields that suit their ideologies:

It’s more likely that these correlations are driven by research areas and the methodologies employed by economists of differing political stripe. Economics involves both methodological and normative judgments, and it is difficult to imagine that any social science could completely erase correlations between these two… macroeconomists and financial economists are more right-leaning on average while labour economists tend to be left-leaning. Economists at business schools, no matter their specialty, lean conservative. Apparently, there is “political sorting” in the academic labour market.

Before you start writing out the indictment that economic policy and the global financial crisis is the product of a vast left-wing conspiracy within the economics profession you should remember the wise words of George Stigler.

Stigler argued that ideas about economic reform needed to wait for a market. He contended that economists exert a minor and scarcely detectable independent influence on the societies in which they live. As is well known, Stigler in the 1970s toasted Milton Friedman at a dinner in his honour by saying:

Milton, if you hadn’t been born, it wouldn’t have made any difference.

Stigler said that if Richard Cobden had spoken only Yiddish, and with a stammer, and Robert Peel had been a narrow, stupid man, England would have still have repealed the Corn Laws in the 1840s. England would still have moved towards free trade in grain as its agricultural classes declined and its manufacturing and commercial classes grew in the 1840s onwards because of the industrial revolution.

As Stigler noted, when their day comes, economists seem to be the leaders of public opinion. But when the views of economists are not so congenial to the current requirements of special interest groups, these economists are left to be the writers of letters to the editor in provincial newspapers. These days, they would run an angry blog.

The 43 Taser deaths by race in 2015 @thecounted @radleybalko @Mark_J_Perry

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Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 1:30 p.m. 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard Time.

image

Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 1:30 p.m. 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard Time.

A history of US growth per capita

@thecounted How did the 24 unarmed Hispanics/Latinos killed by police in 2015 die @radleybalko @Mark_J_Perry

image

Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 1 p.m. 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard Time.

.

Economic impact of global warming: new evidence

A nice summary of the latest research showing that once again the welfare cost of climate change is small except under the most extreme scenarios.

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2% of national income is not something to declare a national emergency over unless you are in a very poor country.

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Richard Tol also mentions that there has only been 27 studies of the economic costs of climate change:

Twenty-seven estimates is a thin basis for any conclusion. Researchers disagree on the sign of the net impact; climate change may lead to a welfare gain or loss. At the same time, researchers agree on the order of magnitude. The welfare change caused by climate change is equivalent to the welfare change caused by an income change of a few percent.

  • That is, a century of climate change is about as good/bad for welfare as a year of economic growth.

As Tol wrote elsewhere, the reason why there are so few studies of the welfare cost of global warming is governments and bureaucracies do not like the small numbers they yield so they pre-emptively do not fund such research.

Few economists work full-time on the economics of climate change as their research results are too moderate to win repeat business and further research grants. Importantly, there is vicious criticism of what you say. Much better to just work on other topics.

One of the great tactical victories of the climate activists, I resisted the temptation to call them climate alarmists, is they keep going on about the science is settled and whether you are accepting the scientific results.

I have long argued let the science be settled, only the economics matters. The climate change activists do not want to talk about the economics that much except for the estimates by that political hack Lord Stern. Lord Stern has been on the losing side of history ever since he wrote a bad review of PT Bauer’s Dissent on Development where he said:

Dissent on Development is not a valuable contribution to the study of development.

The Stern Review puts the costs of unmitigated climate change at 5–20% of GDP (now and forever). The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds differently.

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HT: Lorenzo M Warby

Race and health outcomes in the USA

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