Japan’s demographic challenge

 

Global Warming Was Worth It – And if we had to, we’d do it again

Now, my conception (read: European) of progress and a better standard of living would place many advances above composting, organic farming, or even urban chicken coops.

  • Higher incomes that allow people to make livings that afford them more than merely survival or avoiding starvation.
  • A low poverty rate.
  • High quality and diversity of employment opportunities. Rather than the choice of being a farmer or being a blacksmith, the average citizen should have an  array of careers to choose from, and the ability to be industrious and take risks for profit.
  • The availability of housing. On an average night in the United States, a country with a population of somewhere around 350 million, fewer than one million people are homeless.
  • Consistent GDP growth.
  • Access to quality health care.
  • The availability of quality education. (I suppose we could quibble over the word “quality,” but certainly there is widespread free education availability.)
  • High life expectancy. Worldwide life expectancy has more than doubled from 1750 to 2007.
  • Low frequency of deadly disease.
  • Affordable goods and services.
  • Infrastructure that bolsters economic growth.
  • Political stability.
  • Air conditioning.
  • Freedom from slavery, torture and discrimination.
  • Freedom of movement, religion and thought.
  • The presumption of innocence under the law.
  • Equality under the law regardless of gender or race.
  • The right to have a family – as large as one can support. Maybe even larger.
  • The right to enjoy the fruits of labor without government – or anyone else – stealing it.

There’s much more, of course. If the “sustainability movement” had its way, many of these advances would be degraded.

And since Caradonna offered a few charts highlighting climate change and population growth (a bad thing), I too was assembling a number of graphs that could offer visual examples of the rise of positive developments since the Industrial Revolution. I also soon noticed that all of them looked virtually identical.

So below is what a graph encompassing nearly every one of my bullet points looks like:

graph (6)

via Global Warming Was Worth It.

Darwin Awards ‘winners’ are overwhelmingly male, analysis reveals

  •  Darwin Awards is an annual review of most foolish way people have died
  • Nominees improve the gene pool by eliminating themselves from the human race using foolish methods
  • Scientists were surprised to discover 90% of award ‘winners’ were male
  • Worthy candidates include a terrorist who opened his own letter bomb
  • Another man attempted to travel by hitching a shopping trolley to a train

Figure1

According to “male idiot theory” (MIT) many of the differences in risk seeking behaviour, emergency department admissions, and mortality may be explained by the observation that men are idiots and idiots do stupid things…

In addition, alcohol may play an important part in many of the events leading to a Darwin Award. It is conceivable that the sex difference is attributable to sociobehavioural differences in alcohol use.

Anecdotal data support the hypothesis that alcohol makes men feel “bulletproof” after a few drinks, and it would be naïve to rule this out.

For example, the three men who played a variation on Russian roulette alternately taking shots of alcohol and then stamping on an unexploded Cambodian land mine.

HT: dailymail.co.uk and The Darwin Awards: sex differences in idiotic behaviour | The BMJ.

The economics of parenting | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

across OECD economies parents in more unequal countries place more emphasis on hard work, and consider imagination and independence to be less important.

 

via The economics of parenting | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal.

How to End the Gender Pay Gap Once and for All

Image

Chinese electricity production is based on fossil fuels

https://twitter.com/justsayingDMY/status/534642043058810880

Who chooses to be a vegetarian?

New Zealand national labour force projections – the invasion of the 65+ worker

Figure 1: National labour force projections by age group, 2006-2041

image

Source: Statistics New Zealand, cyclical migration scenario

Not that many years time, about 2035, there will be almost as many workers as there are young workers – those between 15 and 24. About 400,000 workers in each age bracket.

Not that long ago all, in the early 1990s, there were about 25,000 workers in New Zealand were over 65 – they could fit in a football stadium. Soon, they will equal the population of the national capital: Wellington.

Workers aged 65+ moved from accounting for 1.5 per cent of workers in 1991 to 5 per cent in 2011 and 9 per cent in 2021!

Some economics of immigration and other forms of labour force and population growth

One of my puzzles about immigration is the claim that they take jobs from natives. This is the lump of labour fallacy: that there is a fixed amount of work to be done in the world, so any increase in the amount each worker can produce reduces the number of available jobs.

Immigration is population growth. The other method of population growth is natives of the country having children and these children growing up to enter the workforce.

labour2

No one complains about new work force entrants taking the jobs of existing workers. Somehow, no matter how fast or how slow the population may be, jobs are always available.

The baby boom may have slightly increased the natural unemployment rate simply because there were more young people entering the workforce for the first time and job shopping.

This job shopping is when newcomers to the workforce move around a lot more as they find the specific jobs, employers, occupations and industries that suit their talents and inclinations. After about 10 to 15 years of job shopping, the majority workers settle down into a particular job and occupation for a long time.

Labour supply increases through teenagers entering the workforce and migrants entering the workforce differ only in respect of the local taxpayer didn’t have to pay for their schooling.

labour

All through human history, the labour market has been able to cope with population increases with very little drama.

The large increase in female labour force participation since the mid-20th century was handled with ease despite the predictions of the odd, angry misogynist.

Indeed, is there any difference between the arguments against more immigration and the arguments in the mid-20th century against more married women working? Both are about taking jobs are of of existing workers, who will then be thrown on the scrapheap of society and never find another job.

This massive increase in female labour force participation is a good example of how labour force surges can be handled with ease by the labour market, be they domestic in origin or through immigration. The labour market was able to absorb millions of additional married women re-entering or staying on in the workforce to work full-time.

Inequality and Web Search Trends – NYTimes.com

via Inequality and Web Search Trends – NYTimes.com.

Too few good men – rational behaviour and the causes of teen pregnancies

The causes of teen pregnancies are well described in Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas’s Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood Before Marriage and Jason DeParle’s American Dream: Three Women, Ten Kids, and a Nation’s Drive to End Welfare. See Amy Wax’s superb book review Too few good men.

Women on a low social trajectory see no reason to wait before having a baby and they look down upon those women that wait.

People now regard marriage as a luxury good rather than as a necessity. They refuse to tie the knot unless they have first achieved economic success. A house, a well-paying job, and enough money for a nice wedding are now needed before considering a trip to the altar.

These young women put motherhood first and have no intention of marrying the layabouts that often father their children, most of all, because of repeated and open infidelity.

The women do not complain of men’s failure to earn enough, but rather of their unwillingness to grasp opportunities, work steadily, and spend wisely. The objection is not to modest earning power, but to financial profligacy, defiant attitudes, and lack of work discipline…

The most vociferous complaints are reserved for men’s chronic criminal behaviour, drug use, violence, and, above all, repeated and flagrant sexual infidelity.

Most men made no effort to hide their frequent liaisons, which were often carried on simultaneously. More often than not, those relationships produced babies

Having a baby changes these young women from extras on the stage of life to a mother and all the community respect and social standing that commands.

Babies need not await the achievement of an elevated position in life, because childbearing is a fundamental hallmark of female adulthood that is central to poor women’s dignity and identity.

In the authors’ words, “women rely on their children to bring validation, purpose, companionship, and order to their often chaotic lives — things they find hard to come by in other ways.” In a perverse inversion of old values, these woman have come to regard lone motherhood as the ultimate heroic act, the proving ground of their responsible devotion to others.

These new mothers try and clean up their act. They stop drinking and taking drugs. For the first time in their lives they have a purpose, which is to raise a child.

Far too many social commentators see a teen pregnancy through their own lens as a middle class parent and the despair they would fell because their daughter will not go to university and all that brings including a better class of husband.

University educated couples are not called power couples for nothing – their earning power is this stunning compared to going it on your own. The emergence of power couples means that less educated women may prefer to stay single and raise children on their own rather than marry what is left in the marriage pool.

The politics of ethnicity-based research in New Zealand

When Simon Chapple in 2000 wrote “Māori Socio-Economic Disparity”, which showed that disadvantage in New Zealand is more closely tied to age, marital status, education, skills, and geographic location than it is to ethnicity, broadly conceived, such as Māori ethnicity:

  • He was summoned before the Māori Affairs Committee of parliament to defend his paper! His chief executive at the Ministry of Social Policy went along with him to defend what he wrote while employed as a senior analyst at the Department of Labour. Staff at his new ministry launched a petition to have Simon fired.
  • The head of the Māori Affairs Ministry accused Simon of breaching the public service code of conduct.

Chapple also found that there are important differences in socio economic development by Māori self-identity. Those who identified only as Māori did worse than those that are identified as Māori and another ethnicity. Identifying only as Māori also correlated with living in rural New Zealand.

In terms of employment discrimination, employers would not know whether a Māori job applicant identified as only as Māori or also with another ethnicity, so discrimination is not a good explanation of Māori disadvantage because of this counterfactual. A major driver of Māori disadvantage, which is identifying on the Census form solely as Maori, is simply unknown to discriminating employers as a basis for discrimination in hiring and promotion.

There were editorials in the Dominion Post, which I cannot find online,  and in the New Zealand Herald. The latter said:

The Government is being prodded to recognise that Maori deprivation has more to do with socio-economic factors than ethnicity.

This was the conclusion of a report by the Labour Department’s senior research analyst, Simon Chapple. Helen Clark might well have had that finding partly in mind when she referred to a lot of water having gone under the bridge since the Government first formulated legislation.

Mr Chapple said, in essence, that place of residence, age, education and skills had more to do with poverty than race. In areas such as South Auckland, Northland and the central North Island, there were poor Maori, but there were also poor Pākehā and poor Pasifika.

The Minister attacked him and the paper as well for contradicting the Minister’s claim during the election campaign that everything got worse for Maori in the 1990s.

image

Real equivalised median household income rose 47% from 1994 to 2010; for Māori, this rise was 68%; for Pasifika, 77% (Perry July 2014)

See Karen Baehler’s Ethnicity-based research and politics: snapshots from the United States and New Zealand for more information and a comparison with the similar response to Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s The Negro Family: A Case for National Action in 1965.

About a quarter of Negro families are headed by women. The divorce rate is about 2 1/2 times what it is [compared with whites],” Moynihan said. “The number of fatherless children keeps growing. And all these things keep getting worse, not better, over recent years.”

Moynihan, now retired from the United States Senate, was a senior official in LBJ’s Labor Department in 1965. He wrote his report on a typewriter over a few weeks and had the publications office in the basement of the Labor Department print 100 of them, marked “For Official Use Only.”

  • He warned about the breakdown of the African-American family where deprivation and disorganisation had formed their own vicious circle.
  • Many civil rights leaders had labelled Moynihan’s report a subtle form of racism because of its unflattering portrayal of the black family (Wilson 1987).
  • These accusations of racism helped make the breakdown of the family a taboo subject in social policy in the USA

see The Moynihan Report Revisited: Lessons and Reflections after Four Decades for a review by the best and the brightest in American economics and sociology on Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s prophetic warnings. Holzer says, for  example:

Moynihan was extremely insightful and even prescient in arguing that the employment situation of young black men was a “crisis . . . that would only grow worse.”

He understood that these trends involve both limits on labour market opportunities that these young men face as well as skill deficits of and behavioural responses by the young men themselves.

More children are growing-up without a working father living in the home and glean the awareness that work is a central expectation of adult life (Wilson 1987, 1996).

Single-parent households increased from 13 per cent of all Māori households in 1981 to 24.4 per cent in the 2006 Census. In the 2006 Census, 70 per cent of Māori single parent households were on a low income compared to 15 per cent of other Māori one family households (Kiro, Randow and Sporle 2010).

Most of the skill gaps that are present at the age of 18 – skill gaps which substantially explain gaps in adult earnings and employment in all groups – are also present at the age of five (Cunha and Heckman 2007). There is much evidence to show that disadvantaged children have lower levels of soft skills (non-cognitive skills): motivation, persistence, self-discipline, the ability to work with others, the ability to defer gratification and plan ahead, etc. (Heckman 2008). Most of the skills that are acquired at school build on these soft skills that are moulded and reinforced within whānau.

When I started working on labour economics in 2007 I found that the labour economics of Māori was very narrowly written and stayed well clear of the minefield that Simon braved about how ethnicity does not matter that much to Māori social disadvantage.

The ultimate resource

simons population

Image

The great leap backward

The importation of socialism into the Third World, even in the relatively non-violent form of Congress-Party Fabian-Gandhism, unintentionally stifled growth, enriched large industrialists, and kept the people poor.  Malthusian theories hatched in the West were put into practice by India and especially China, resulting in millions of missing girls.  The capitalist-sponsored Green Revolution of dwarf hybrids was opposed by green politicians the world around, but has made places like India self-sufficient in grains. 

State power in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa has been used to tax the majority of farmers in aid of the president’s cousins and a minority of urban bureaucrats.  State power in many parts of Latin America has prevented land reform and sponsored disappearances.  State ownership of oil in Nigeria and Mexico and Iraq was used to support the party in power, benefiting the people not at all.  Arab men have been kept poor, not bettered, by using state power to deny education and driver’s licenses to Arab women. 

The seizure of governments by the clergy has corrupted religions and ruined economies.  The seizure of governments by the military has corrupted armies and ruined economies.

Deirdre McCloskey

Everything you know about teenage pregnancies is wrong

Most people look upon teenage pregnancies from the perspective of their class.

Middle-class parents horrified that their daughter might not go to university and all the benefits that entails, including a better class of husband.

But look at what a teenage pregnancy is for a young woman was not destined for the University and the fast lane.

You go from being an extra on the stage of life to being a mother. Instant respect.

Everyone’s cheering for you. No matter how far your fall, now matter how badly you screw up, there are people ready to help you find your way back for the sake of the children.

Ethnographic studies show that teenage mothers looked down on their contemporaries that delay having a child into their 20s.

Teenage mums to be start to clean up their act, they get off drugs, they get off alcohol.

Most of all for the first time in their lives, these teenagers have a purpose – to be a mother.

They don’t marry the father because they do not look upon him as husband material.

In many cases, the young mothers hope that becoming a father might turn him into husband material.

The reason why they don’t in the end marry the father is the persistent antisocial behaviour of the fathers, and most of all, their persistent infidelity.

Teenage mums know what they’re doing.

All too many do-gooders  and busy bodies  will look upon teenage pregnancies as a mistake – an accident – somehow the product of a lack of knowledge of contraception or access to the same.

This myth persisted despite the invention of the Internet by Al Gore and the considerable amount of information you can find out about the facts of life on the Internet with the help of those cell phones most teenagers have.

It’s far easier to explain behaviour you think is foolish from your own perspective rather than that the perspective of the teenager concerned and the options that they have before them.

It’s no coincidence that a large number of teenage mums did not finish high school and don’t have much to look forward in their working life. The biggest thing in their life will be being a mother. Why wait?

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