Why Life Expectancy Is Misleading
25 May 2014 Leave a comment
in technological progress Tags: life expectancy, The Great Escape, The Great Fact
From 1900 to 1998, life expectancy from birth for Americans rose from 47 to 75, an increase of 28 years.
A good deal of that increase in life span had to do with increases in the chances of surviving birth and childhood.
via priceonomics
Paul Ehrlich–still going after 40-years of wrong, wrong, and wrong again
23 May 2014 Leave a comment
in population economics, technological progress Tags: Paul Ehrlich, population bomb
We will soon be asking is it perfectly okay to eat the bodies of your dead because we’re all so hungry?
…In other words between now and 45 years from now, 2.5 billion people will be added to the planet. …We are moving towards resource wars
“Will overpopulation drive us to eat our own DEAD?” The Daily Mail, 23 May 2014
Paul Ehrlich is widely known for his 1968 book ‘The Population Bomb’ which he called for population control to prevent global crises from overpopulation. In his 1968 book, he predicted.
Plainly, he got that wrong. In 1970, Ehrlich predicted that Americans would be subjected to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by the end of the 1970s. He got that wrong too.
Julian L. Simon and Ehrlich entered in a widely followed scientific wager in 1980.
Simon had Ehrlich choose five commodity metals. Simon bet that their prices would decrease, while Ehrlich bet they would increase. Between 1980 and 1990, the world’s population grew by more than 800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history.
Ehrlich lost the bet with Simon. All five commodities bet on declined in price from 1980 through to 1990.

Ehrlich was more than a sore loser. In 1995, he told the Wall Street Journal that
If Simon disappeared from the face of the Earth, that would be great for humanity.
Ehrlich calls those who disagree with him “idiots,” “fools,” “morons,” “clowns” and worse. His righteous zeal is matched by viciousness in disagreement and utter imperviousness to contrary evidence
ICT is changing our lives
23 May 2014 Leave a comment
in technological progress Tags: ICT, technology diffusion, technology usage, The Great Fact
Everything’s Amazing and Nobody’s Happy | Bryan Caplan
22 May 2014 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economic growth, technological progress Tags: Bryan Caplan, pessimism
Super-Economy “pre-reviewed ” Piketty in 2010
14 May 2014 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, entrepreneurship, labour economics, liberalism, politics - USA, technological progress Tags: Piketty, poverty versus inequality
The French are poorer that the 3rd poorest American state: Arkansas. The EU-15 as a whole would qualify to be the 49th poorest American state.



The rich in Europe are poor by American standards. The poor in the USA are middle class by European standards. The European middle class has smaller houses, few cars and few consumers durables that the average poor in the USA.

via Super-Economy: Dynamic America, Poor Europe and Tino Sanandaji
How much would an IPhone cost in 1991? | Techpolicy Daily
12 May 2014 Leave a comment
in entrepreneurship, technological progress Tags: mobile phones, standards of living, The Great Fact
In the beginning, mobile phones were just a walkie-talkie. iPhones have the same capabilities of 13 distinct electronics gadgets worth more than $3,000 in a 1991.

An iPhone incorporates a computer, CD player, phone, and video camera, among other items.
In 1991, a gigabyte of hard disk storage cost around $10,000. Today, it costs around four cents.
Back in 1991, a gigabyte of flash memory, which is what the iPhone uses, would have cost something like $45,000, or more. (Today, it’s around 55 cents ($0.55).)
The mid-level iPhone 5S has 32 GB of flash memory. Thirty-two GB, multiplied by $45,000, equals $1.44 million.
The iPhone used 20,500 millions of instructions per second which in 1991 would have cost around $620,000.
In 1991, a mobile phone used the AMPS analog wireless network to deliver kilobit voice connections.
A 1.44 megabit T1 line from the telephone company cost around $1,000 per month.
Today’s LTE mobile network is delivering speeds in the 15 Mbps range.
Safe to say, the iPhone’s communication capacity is at least 10,000 times that of a 1991 mobile phone.
The 1991 cost of mobile communication was something like $100 per kilobit per second.
Fifteen thousand Kbps (15 Mbps), multiplied by $100, is $1.5 million.
Considering only memory, processing, and broadband communications power, duplicating the iPhone back in 1991 would have (very roughly) cost: $1.44 million + $620,000 + $1.5 million = $3.56 million.
This doesn’t even account for the MEMS motion detectors, the camera, the iOS operating system, the brilliant display, or the endless worlds of the Internet and apps to which the iPhone connects us.
via Techpolicy Daily and Cafe Hayek
The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy
11 May 2014 Leave a comment
in technological progress Tags: life expectancy, The Great Escape, The Great Fact
Why Does 1% of History Have 99% of the Wealth? | Learn Liberty – YouTube
04 May 2014 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, development economics, entrepreneurship, liberalism, market efficiency, technological progress Tags: Deirdre McCloskey, industrial revolution, Rise of the Western World, rule of law, The Bourgeois Virtues, The Great Fact
Throughout the history of the world, the average person on earth has been extremely poor: subsisting on the modern equivalent of $3 per day.
This was true until 1800, at which point average wages—and standards of living—began to rise dramatically.
Prof. Deirdre McCloskey explains how this tremendous increase in wealth came about.
In the past 30 years alone, the number of people in the world living on less than $3 per day has been halved.
The cause of the economic growth we have witnessed in the past 200 years may surprise you.
It’s not exploitation, or investment. Innovation—new ideas, new inventions, materials, machinery, organizational structures—has fueled this economic boom.
Prof. McCloskey explains how changes in Holland and England in the 1600s and 1700s opened the door for innovation to take off—starting the growth that continues to benefit us today.
via Why Does 1% of History Have 99% of the Wealth? | Learn Liberty – YouTube.
Economic Progress since Howard Hughes in the 1960s
04 May 2014 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, technological progress Tags: Cafe Hayek, Howard Hughes
Back in the day, with two flatmates, we bought a VCR for about $1000.

It was a remote control albeit this was connected by a cord to the machine – luxury
These days, DVD players go for $50.
Cafe Hayek makes these wonderful elaborations about how ordinary people live their lives as well as the billionaire Howard Hughes did in 1965:
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Hughes could afford to talk on the phone for hours to someone hundreds or thousands of miles away. Even the poorest pays no long-distance charges even when making an overseas telephone call. There is Viber and Skype.
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Hughes could afford to equip his house with a large screen, a state-of-the-art projector, an impressive sound system, and a film library filled with thousands of movies, documentaries, and television shows, so that he had a virtual movie theatre in his home. Today, nearly everyone can buy a large-screen hi-definition television, a surround-sound speaker system, and download movies.
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Hughes could afford to staff his kitchen with chefs from Thailand, Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Morocco, Lebanon, and India. Today, such restaurants are common-place.
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Hughes could easily afford to equip each member of his family with an automobile of his or her own. Today it’s not unusual for a middle-class household to have one car each for every person in that household who is at least 17 years old.
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Hughes could easily afford to holiday in a foreign country. In New Zealand, overseas travel is included in living wage calculations.
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Hughes could afford to fly to whatever distant locations he visited. Air travel is now emphatically routine even for high school students.
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Hughes hired servants to wash his dishes. Today, automatic dishwashers are the norm.
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Hughes could afford to equip his residence with an always-at-the-ready dark room so that he could take high-quality photographs and view them minutes later. People upload their photos and videos to Facebook and Instagram moments after they take them.
The Rawlsian social justice case for super-entrepreneurs and many more billionaires
04 May 2014 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economic growth, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, market efficiency, Rawls and Nozick, technological progress Tags: envy, John Rawls, super-rich, SuperEntrepreneurs, top 1%, top talent
The report SuperEntrepreneurs shows that:
- SuperEntrepreneurs founded half the largest new firms created since the end of the Second World War
- There is a strong correlation between high rates of SuperEntrepreneurship in a country and low tax rates
- a low regulatory burden and high rates of philanthropy both correlate strongly with high rates of SuperEntrepreneurship
- Active government and supranational programmes to encourage entrepreneurship – such as the EU’s Lisbon Strategy – have largely failed.
- Yet governments can encourage entrepreneurialism by lowering taxes (particularly capital gains taxes which have a particularly high impact on entrepreneurialism while raising relatively insignificant revenues); by reducing regulations; and by vigorously enforcing property rights.
- High rates of self-employment and innovative entrepreneurship are both important for the economy.
- Yet policy makers should recognise that they are not synonymous and should not assume policies which encourage self-employment necessarily promote entrepreneurship.
- Policy makers should use a definition of entrepreneurship which is based on innovation.
SuperEntrepreneurs examined about 1,000 self-made men and women who have earned at least $1 billion dollars and who appeared in Forbes magazine list of the world’s richest people between 1996 and 2010.

Hong Kong has the most, with around three SuperEntrepreneurs per million inhabitants, followed by Israel, the US, Switzerland and Singapore.
The US is roughly four times more super-entrepreneurial than Western Europe and three times more super-entrepreneurial than Japan.
Super-entrepreneurs tend to be well-educated – 84% have a university degree.
Many started their own company but there is no clear relationship between self-employment and successful entrepreneurship
Steven Kaplan and Joshua Rauh’s “It’s the Market: The Broad-Based Rise in the Return to Top Talent” Journal of Economic Perspectives 2013 found that those in the Forbes 400 richest are less likely to have inherited their wealth or grown-up wealthy.
Today’s super-rich are self-made rich because they produce new and better products and services that people wanted and are willing to pay for.
John Rawls was alive to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society.
With his emphasis on fair distributions of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left. Left-wing thinkers then started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and his tolerance of large discrepancies in income and wealth.
Rawls excluded envy when we are behind his veil of ignorance designed the social contract about how the society will be organised. He believed that principles of justice should not be affected by individual inclinations, which are mere accidents.
Rawls also argued that the liberties and political status of equal citizens encourage self-respect even when one is less well off than others; and background institutions (including a competitive economy) make it likely that excessive inequalities will not be the rule. He supposes that
the main psychological root of our liability to envy is a lack of self-confidence in our own worth combined with a sense of impotence
Then there is the old Russian joke that tells the story of a peasant with one cow who hates his neighbour because he has two. A sorcerer offers to grant the envious farmer a single wish any thing he wants: “Shoot my neighbour’s cow!” he demands.
The Death of the Renaissance Man?
03 May 2014 Leave a comment
in human capital, industrial organisation, labour economics, technological progress Tags: Ben Jones, innovation, polymaths, renaissance man
Ben Jones in ‘The Burden of Knowledge and the Death of the Renaissance Man: Is Innovation Getting Harder? found that as knowledge accumulates as technology advances, successive generations of innovators may face an increasing educational burden.

Innovators can compensate through lengthening their time in education and narrowing expertise, but these responses come at the cost of reducing individual innovative capacities.
This has implications for the organization of innovative activity – a greater reliance on teamwork – and has negative implications for economic growth.
Jones found that the age at first invention, specialisation, and teamwork increased over time in a large micro-data set of inventors. Upward trends in academic collaboration and lengthening doctorates can also be explained in his framework.
Using data on Nobel Prize winners, Jones found that the mean age at which the innovations are produced to win the Prize has increased by 6 years over the 20th Century.
- Before 1901, two-thirds of the Nobel laureates did their prize-winning work before the age of 40 and 20 per cent did it before age of 30.
- By 2000, however, great achievements seldom occurred before the age of 40.
It’s now taking longer for scientists to get their basic training and start their careers. There is simply more to learn because knowledge in all fields has grown by quantum leaps in the past century.
Nobels are being handed out for different types of work than a century ago.
- There has been a trend away from awarding prizes for abstract, theoretical ideas.
- Now more honours are being bestowed on people who have made discoveries through painstaking lab work and experimentation – which takes a lot of time to do.
Jones’ theory provides an explanation for why productivity growth rates did not accelerate through the 20th century despite an enormous expansion in collective research effort and levels of education and many more graduates.
The more experienced readers of this blog might remember that the better of their professors seemed to be masters of the entire field of economics and could teach almost any subject.
These days, too many professors rely on textbooks with annual editions that come with the lecture notes, assignments and test-banks written for them by the publishing company.
Are there any polymaths left? Posner? Tullock?
Why I am not reviewing Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century – updated again
29 Apr 2014 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, entrepreneurship, macroeconomics, market efficiency, politics, Rawls and Nozick, taxation, technological progress Tags: Greg Mankiw, Jon Elster, Mirrlees Review, Robert Lucas, Thomas Piketty, Tyler Cowen
It’s 700 pages long and goes on about Marx. Some people were watching the other channel when the Berlin Wall fell.

My 1 o’clock lecture at ANU in 1990 was next to a room rented out ironically from 12 to 1 to the Campus Trots and then to the Campus Christians for an hour of prayer to another saviour.
The Twitter summary of Piketty is this:
Karl Marx wasn’t wrong, just early. Pretty much. Sorry, capitalism. #inequalityforevah
The only Marxist I bother with is Jon Elster. He is a leading proponent of Analytical Marxism and one of the last polymaths. Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster’s books one:
would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster’s purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen experts.
All of Elster’s books and writings are worth reading, including
- Ulysses and the Sirens (1979);
- Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality (1983);
- Making Sense of Marx (1985); and
- An Introduction to Karl Marx (1986).
As Jon Elster noted:
Marxian economics is, with a few exceptions, intellectually dead
and Marx’s labour theory of value is:
useless at best, harmful and misleading at its not infrequent worst.
To go on with my non-review, I will quote Tyler Cowen:
The crude seven-word version of Piketty’s argument is “rates of return on capital won’t diminish.”
Piketty’s reasons why rates of return on capital won’t diminish are fairly specific and restricted to only a small share of capital.
.. In any case this is pure speculation and Piketty’s entire argument depends upon it.
… Piketty converts the entrepreneur into the rentier.
To the extent capital reaps high returns, it is by assuming risk…
Yet the concept of risk hardly plays a role in the major arguments of this book.
Once you introduce risk, the long-run fate of capital returns again becomes far from certain.
In fact the entire book ought to be about risk but instead we get the rentier…
Overall, the main argument is based on two (false) claims.
First, that capital returns will be high and non-diminishing, relative to other factors.
Second, that this can happen without significant increases in real wages.
Piketty’s advocacy of a top marginal income tax rate of 80% and a an international treaty for a wealth tax are wildly impractical and destructive of economic growth and entrepreneurship. His advocacy of 60% marginal tax rates on incomes above $200,000 strike at the heart of the professional and managerial occupations that are the backbone of day-to-day capitalism. Piketty’s wealth tax would tax the homes and the retirement savings of the ordinary middle class:
- wealth below 200,000 euros be taxed at a rate of 0.1 percent,
- wealth between 200,000 and one million euros at 0.5 percent,
- wealth between one million and five million euros at 1.0 percent, and
- wealth above five million euros at 2.0 percent.
Piketty’s reason for these high top tax rates is not to bring in more revenue or to redistribute wealth to poor and the downtrodden but simply “to put an end to such incomes.” Harsanyi argues that:
Like many progressives, Piketty doesn’t really believe that most people deserve their wealth anyway, so confiscating it presents no real moral dilemma.
He also argues that we can measure a person’s productivity and the value of a worker (namely, low-skilled labourers) while arguing that other groups of workers (namely, the kind of people he doesn’t admire) are bequeathed undeserved, “arbitrary” salaries. What tangible benefit does a stockbroker or a kulak or an explanatory journalist offer society, after all?
This takes me back to Jon Elster who had this to say on socialism:
Optimism and wishful thinking have been features of socialist thought from its inception.
In Marx, for instance, two main premises appear to be that whatever is desirable is possible, and that whatever is desirable and possible is inevitable.
…It has become clear that classical socialism massively underestimated the importance of economic incentives
.
Greg Mankiw is less harsh, but still to the point:
Like President Obama and others on the left, Piketty wants to spread the wealth around.
Another philosophical viewpoint is that it is the government’s job to enforce rules such as contracts and property rights and promote opportunity rather than to achieve a particular distribution of economic outcomes.
No amount of economic history will tell you that John Rawls (and Thomas Piketty) offers a better political philosophy than Robert Nozick (and Milton Friedman).
John Rawls was actually very much alive to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society.
Unequal incomes might turn out to be to the advantage of everyone. Work effort and entrepreneurial alertness respond to incentives; incentives channel people into the occupations and jobs where they produce more.
Rawls lent qualified support to the idea of a flat-rate consumption tax because these taxes:
impose a levy according to how much a person takes out of the common store of goods and not according to how much he contributes.
A simple way to have a progressive consumption tax is to exempt all savings from taxation.
With his emphasis on fair distributions of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left. Left-wing thinkers then started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and his tolerance of large discrepancies in income and wealth.
It’s impossible to make the workers better off by taxing capital. The optimal rate of tax on income from capital is zero. This is why the Mirrlees Review of the UK taxation system argued for zero taxation of the returns to capital.
Robert Lucas estimated in 1990 that eliminating all taxes on income from capital would increase the U.S. capital stock by about 35% and consumption by 7%.
Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Ashwin Kambhampati, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (2014) found that eliminating the corporate income tax completely would raise the U.S. capital stock (machines and buildings) by 23%, output by 8% and the real wages of unskilled and skilled workers each by 12%.
Book reviews serve the same purpose as film reviews. They are filters for our time. Do you agree?
I made a time management decision to not read a long book plenty of others reviewed and some even understood.
As for the growing income inequality, there is a long literature dating back 25-years arguing that skill-biased technological change is increasing the returns to investing in education as Gary Becker blogged in 2011:
Earnings inequality in the United States and many other countries has increased greatly since the late 1970s, due in large measure to globalization and technological progress that raised the productivity of more educated and more skilled individuals.
While the average American college graduate earned about a 40% premium over the average high school graduate in 1980, this premium increased to over 70% in 2000.
The good side of this higher education-based earnings inequality is that it induced more young men, and especially more young women, to go to and finish college.
The bad side is that many sufficiently able children could not take advantage of the greater returns from a college education because their parents did not prepare them to perform well in school, or they went to bad schools, or they lacked the financing to attend college.
As a result, the incomes of high school dropouts and of many high school graduates stagnated while incomes boomed for many persons who graduated college, and even more so for those with post graduate education.
There is nothing new under the sun.




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