Peace feelers in World War 1

There were no meaningful peace proposals by the belligerent governments until 1916.

In late 1916 a series of peace proposals were suddenly put forward, all of them without exception advocating compromises. They contained no demands for unconditional surrender or a dictated peace.

There was Reichstag peace resolution on 19 July 1917. The resolution called for no annexations, no indemnities, freedom of the seas, and international arbitration. It was ignored by the German High Command and by the Allied Powers.

Pope Benedict XV tried to mediate with his Peace Note of August 1917 calling for a return to the pre-war borders.

On November 14, 1917, Lord Landsdowne, a minister in the Asquith cabinet, put forward a letter to the Daily Telegraph on the need for peace negotiations.



The Landsdowne memorandum titled "Coordination of Allies’ War Aims" recommended a serious investigation of the possibility of a peace and advocated that a statement be made by the British government indicating that the destruction of the German Empire was not her goal. Landsdowne said:

We are not going to lose this war, but its prolongation will spell ruin for the civilised world, and an infinite addition to the load of human suffering which already weighs upon it…

We do not desire the annihilation of Germany as a great power …

We do not seek to impose upon her people any form of government other than that of their own choice…

We have no desire to deny Germany her place among the great commercial communities of the world.

Landsdowne favoured a peace on the basis of pre-war status quo. The fall of the Asquith government and the installation of the Lloyd George Cabinet on December 16 put an end to Landsdowne’s activities.

The problem with the negotiation of the end of a war is the securing of credible assurances that the peace is lasting rather than just a chance for the other side to rebuild and come back to attack from a stronger position.

  • When on the advance, the peace feelers of the advancing powers were on basis of keeping conquered territories.
  • When in retreat, the peace proposals of the retreating powers were on the basis of returning to the pre-war borders.

One side will think that the other’s promise not to re-start a war is credible only if the other state would be better off by keeping its promise not to re-start a war than by breaking its promise.

France fortified its border with Germany in the 1920s because of a lack of trust that the peace would endure. Germany was disarmed after 1918 so that the day which it would be a threat again was well into the future.

Watching people fighting on Armistice Day

The Midnight Oil song was true.

Generals launched attacks on Armistice Day in full knowledge that the 11 am. truce had been agreed unofficially up to two days before. The Germans finally signed the armistice at 5:10 a.m. on the morning of the 11th November.

  • The records of Commonwealth War Graves Commission shows that 863 Commonwealth soldiers died on 11 November 1918 – this figure includes those who died of wounds received prior to November 11.
  • The Americans took 3,300 casualties on the last day of the war.

The last American soldier killed was Private Henry Gunter who was killed at 10.59 a.m. – the last man to die in World War One. His divisional record stated:

Almost as he fell, the gunfire died away and an appalling silence prevailed.

General Pershing supported commanders who wanted to be pro-active in attacking German positions on the last day of the war.

Pershing stated at 1919 Congressional hearings that although he knew about the timing of the Armistice, he simply did not trust the Germans to carry out their obligations.

Pershing also pointed out that his orders of the Allies Supreme Commander, Marshal Ferdinand Foch, to

pursue the field greys (Germans) until the last minute

Pershing found the idea of an armistice repugnant. He maintained:

Germany’s desire is only to regain time to restore order among her forces, but she must be given no opportunity to recuperate and we must strike harder than ever.

As for terms, Pershing had one response:

There can be no conclusion to this war until Germany is brought to her knees.

Pershing said that conciliation now would lead only to a future war. He wanted Germany’s unconditional surrender. He insisted that Germany must know that it was fully defeated in the field of battle rather than betrayed from within.

When presented with the terms of the 1919 Treaty of Versailles, several German governments resigned.

France started to remobilise before Germany finally accepted the Treaty. The Treaty was somewhat harsher than the German Foreign Office anticipated.

A blow by blow account of the six-months of treaty negotiations is in Margaret MacMillan Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World 2002 who showed that:

  • real defeat was not brought home to the German people,
  • the power of the peacemakers was limited,
  • they were not responsible for the fragmentation of Europe which was already happening,
  • the blockade did not starve Germany,
  • neither the Versailles treaty nor France was vindictive,
  • reparations were not crushing,
  • the treaty was not enforced with any consistency, and it did not seriously restrict German power, and
  • The Versailles treaty was not primarily responsible for either the next twenty years or for World War II.

The high-minded efforts of the Paris negotiators were doomed as some of them realised. Lloyd George wrote:

It fills me with despair the way in which I have seen small nations, before they have hardly leapt into the light of freedom, beginning to oppress other races than their own.

Anzac Day: why did we fight at Gallipoli?

Australia and New Zealand were filled with first and second generation migrants happy to rally to defend their mother country:

  • 12 per cent of the population of New Zealand volunteered to fight; and
  • 13 per cent of the male population of Australia volunteered to fight in World War 1.

The people and governments of New Zealand and Australia of that time were British to their boot straps. The Union Jack was in their flags for a reason.

Our specific quarrel with the Ottoman Empire was it joined Germany and others to be at war with the UK, Australia and New Zealand.

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Removing the Ottoman Empire from that war would have strengthened Russia. A stronger Russia would have weakened Germany and its allies and brought the war to an earlier end.

The governments of Australian and New Zealand fell over themselves to declare war and pledge troops in 1914.

World War 1 started in the middle of an Australian election campaign in 1914.

In the September 1914 election, both opposition leader Andrew Fisher and Prime Minister Joseph Cook stressed Australia’s unflinching loyalty to Britain, and Australia’s readiness to take its place with the allied countries.

Labor Party leader Fisher’s campaign pledge was to:

stand beside the mother country to help and defend her to the last man and the last shilling.

Labor defeated the incumbent government to win majorities in both houses. Billy Hughes and his nationalist party won the 1917 election in a landslide.

New Zealanders had even a better chance to reflect on the war-making choices of their leaders in 1914.

Our election was in December of 1914. The passions of the moment had some chance to calm, and the fighting has started for real.

The will of the people was a 90 per cent vote for the war parties. New Zealanders could have voted for the Labour MPs, several of whom were later imprisoned for their anti-conscription activities or for refusing military service.

In New Zealand, after that wartime election, the Prime Minister was an Irish Protestant who formed a coalition with an Irish Catholic as his deputy.

Do you know of a superior mechanism to elections for measuring the will of the people? Are elections inadequate to the task of deciding if the people support a war and that support of the public is based on well-founded reasons?

The reasons for New Zealand and Australia fighting are the just cause of fighting militarism and territorial conquest, empire solidarity, regional security interests such as the growing number of neighbouring German colonies, and long-term national security. A victorious Germany would have imposed a harsh peace.

New Zealand and Australian national security is premised on having a great and powerful friend. That was initially Britain. When the USA arrived in 1941 as a better great and powerful friend, the British were dropped like a stone.

Anzac Day: Gallipoli as a strategic and then a humanitarian intervention

A victory at Gallipoli would have:

• brought World War 1 to an earlier conclusion; and

• Allowed for earlier arrests of the perpetrators of the Armenian genocide that started 99 years and one day ago.

On May 24, 1915, the Allied Powers jointly issued a statement explicitly charging for the first time ever another government of committing `a crime against humanity’.

The Allied Governments announce publicly that they will hold personally responsible all members of the Ottoman Government, as well as those of their agents who are implicated in the Armenian massacres.

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Hundreds of eyewitnesses, including the neutral United States and the Ottoman Empire’s own allies recorded and documented numerous acts of state-sponsored massacres of Armenians. The United States had several consulates throughout the Ottoman Empire until it joined the Allies in 1917. There were also numerous missionary compounds established in Armenian-populated regions.

Many foreign officials offered to intervene on behalf of the Armenians, including the Pope.

The Wiki entry on the contemporary reporting of the genocide is instructive with a scan of a 16 July 1915 U.S. diplomatic cable on this campaign of race extermination.

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Australian and New Zealand participation in the invasion of the Ottoman Empire as a by-product set the legal and moral infrastructure for the Nuremberg trials: governments would hold others to account for crimes against humanity and genocide.

Article 230 of the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres required the defeated Ottoman Empire to hand over to the Allied Powers the persons whose surrender may be required by the latter as being responsible for the massacres committed during the continuance of the state of war on territory which formed part of the Ottoman Empire on August 1, 1914

Various Ottoman politicians, generals, and intellectuals were transferred to Malta where they were held for some three years while searches were made of archives in Constantinople, London, Paris and Washington to investigate the Armenian genocide.

The Inter-Allied tribunal never solidified and the detainees were eventually returned to Turkey in exchange for British citizens held hostage by Kemalist Turkey.

Col Tim Collins’ inspirational speech – Kenneth Branagh

Kenneth Branagh recreates Col. Tim Collins’ off-the-cuff speech to 1 Batt., Royal Irish Regiment, on 19 March 2003 just before the invasion of Iraq. From the BBC production 10 Days to War.

A nearby BBC journalist took this history down short-hand.

Video

The war against terror really is a war

Some pretend that the war on Al-Qaeda is not a war and attacking them with drones is illegal under international law. Under this theory, terrorism is a crime, not an act of war. Terrorists such as Australia’s own David Hicks are just criminals. These criticisms rest on profound misconceptions about the international laws of war.

The hijacking of airliners was defined by the UN in the 1970s as aerial piracy.

The 9/11 terrorists were air pirates. NATO and allied military entered Afghanistan to subdue the home base of these brigands and those that harboured them:

  • Naval and military deployments against pirate’s lairs date back thousands of years.
  • The first war of the USA was with the Barbary Pirates in 1801 to 1805, with another war in 1815. These pirates waged war against the shipping of other nations, seized cargoes and ships, and sold captives into slavery.
  • Punitive expeditions against bandits were commonplace too, such as chasing Pancho Villa and his gang of bandits back into Mexico in 1916.
  • The U.S. military recently attacked a Somalian maritime pirate camp to rescue hostages. EU naval forces have also attacked these pirate lairs to destroy boats and supplies.

The case for attacking Afghanistan was as a limited, punitive expedition to degrade it as a terrorist base camp. That mission was accomplished in 2001 and 2002.

Does Al-Qaeda and other terrorist militias wear uniforms and carry their weapons openly as required by international law to qualify as a lawful combatant? Al-Qaeda and other terrorist militias routinely commit war crimes under the Geneva conventions by intermingling with civilians and by “locating military objectives within or near densely populated areas”.

International humanitarian law permits members of the armed forces of a state that is party to an international armed conflict and associated militias who meet the requisite criteria to wear uniforms, carry their weapons openly, and directly engage in hostilities. They are generally considered lawful, or privileged, combatants who, when captured, may not be prosecuted for taking part in hostilities as long as they respect international humanitarian law.

The whole purpose of requiring belligerents to wear uniforms recognisable at a distance and to carry their weapons openly is to protect civilians. Each side can see the other clearly and has no excuse for getting ‘trigger happy’ around civilians.

It is the terrorists who violate the laws of war by hiding themselves and their bases within civilian populations, thereby drawing unwilling and unsuspecting innocents into the fighting.

If civilians directly engage in hostilities, they are considered unlawful or unprivileged combatants or belligerents. They may be prosecuted under the law of the detaining state. The Allies detained 11 million POWs (and captured enemy personnel) without charge or trial by the time World War II ended. None were allowed access to a lawyer or had the right to seek bail.

Because the USA and others are at war with Al-Qaeda, they can use force to conduct hostilities against the enemy and those who harbour them. The Taliban was warned. A Wiki has this nice quote by Stone (1921):

When the territorial sovereign is too weak or is unwilling to enforce respect for international law, a state which is wronged may find it necessary to invade the territory and to chastise the individuals who violate its rights and threaten its security.

When a nation goes to war, it seeks to defeat and subdue its enemy to prevent further attacks.

The U.S. and allied military and intelligence services are legally and morally free to target Al-Qaeda for an attack whether they are on the front lines or behind them, with or without warning and without any attempt to capture.

A corollary of the right to kill enemy personnel is that the deaths of civilians that occur in legitimate attacks against military targets are not illegal. It is pious to deny this. It denies the most basic and best understood of moral distinctions: between premeditated murder and unintended killing.

It is the central principle of the international laws of war that innocent civilians should not be targeted. On the other hand, the rules of war accept the death of civilians in or near legitimate military targets.

Al-Qaeda will never follow the rules of war. Al-Qaeda gains its only tactical advantages by systematically flouting them and hiding among civilians.

The renegade Left for decades wanted terrorists to be treated as prisoners of war, and thereby held to the end of the war and not otherwise punished. Now, the renegade Left don’t want terrorists to be held as captured combatants to the end of the war. Instead, they want them to have the right to apply for bail.

As part of law-fare, one or two fathers applied to the U.S. courts for injunctions to stop drone attacks on their wayward sons on a best friend basis. They failed and were reminded by the Court that if they were so worried, their sons could pop down to the nearest U.S. embassy and discuss their fears: surrender for extradition.

Al-Qaeda and 9/11 will not go away if only history were different and the USA had kept more to itself prior to 9/11. The war against Al-Qaeda started from the world as it was on 9/11 for all its flaws. After 9/11, mutual defence obligations were triggered under NATO and ANZUS, in addition to the UN resolutions. Navies and armies have fought pirates and bandits for thousands of years.

P.S. All terrorists and members of the Taliban are war criminals because:

  • Article 51 (7) of Protocol I of the Geneva Convention states: “The presence or movements of the civilian population or individual civilians shall not be used to render certain points or areas immune from military operations, in particular attempts to shield military objectives from attacks or to shield, favour or impede military operations”.
  • The Geneva Convention also holds that “The presence of a protected person may not be used to render certain points of areas immune from military operations”. (Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, 1949, Laws of Armed Conflicts, 495, 511.)
  • The Rome Statute is clear that “utilizing the presence of civilians or other protected persons to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations is recognized as a war crime by Article 8 (2) (b) (xxiii)”.

Why only Nixon could go to China and Clinton finish the Reagan Revolution

The secret of winning the swing vote is having policies slightly different from your opponent. Recall Tyler Cowen and Daniel Sutter’s Why Only Nixon Could Go to China in Public Choice.

 

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Cowen and Sutter say that a policy could depend on information – on which policies or values everyone could potentially agree, or on which agreement is impossible.

Politicians, who value both re-election and policy outcomes, realise the nature of the issue better through inside and secret information and superior analytical skills (or access to those skills), whereas voters do not have access to such information base or skills.

Only a right-wing president can credibly signal the desirability of a left-wing course of action. A left-wing president’s rapprochement with China would be dismissed as a dovish sell-out. The Nixon paradox held because citizens could vote retrospectively on the issue.

Left-wing parties adopt right-wing policies because they are good ideas that will get them re-elected. Bob Hawke, Tony Blair, and Bill Clinton were firmly camped over the middle-ground.

Only centre-left economic reformers can credibly signal the desirability of their economic reforms because of the brand name capital they invested in distributional concerns and protecting the poor.

Because of their proven record and brand name, they do not jeopardise their support or credibility by seemingly departing from their core values. They must have done so because it was the right thing to do given events and the long-term interests of the lower-income groups they represent.

Bill Clinton balanced the budget and introduced sweeping welfare reforms in 1996 after vetoing two earlier bills because this finally fulfilled his 1992 campaign promise to “end welfare as we have come to know it”. As he signed the bill on August 22, 1996, Clinton stated that the act:

gives us a chance we haven’t had before to break the cycle of dependency that has existed for millions and millions of our fellow citizens, exiling them from the world of work. It gives structure, meaning and dignity to most of our lives.

Jimmy Carter was a bigger deregulator than Reagan. Obama uses drones far more often than Bush did.

Major labour law reforms were passed in Germany under a left-wing government after decades of 10% unemployment rates and average German unemployment spells for about a year. The key part of these reforms came into play just before the global financial crisis hit and was a major reason for the unemployment rate in Germany falling despite the onset of GFC.

Why Only Nixon Could Go to China also explains why hawks such as Reagan and Begin and other right wing party leaders were able to negotiate peace treaties that eluded more dovish politicians who ran on ‘peace now’ slogans.

Reagan signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty, walked with Gorbachev in Red Square and seriously offered complete mutual nuclear disarmament in Reykjavik in 1986. Any other American President who offered complete mutual nuclear disarmament would have been impeached.

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Hawks also have the right negotiating stance. Robert Aumann argues that:

If you are ready for war, you will not need to fight. If you cry ‘peace, peace,’ you will end up fighting… What brings war is that you signal weakness and concessions.

Only then will both sides negotiate because they know that the other side is willing to walk away and perhaps not come back for a long time. Unless it gets reasonable offers that will be binding on both sides for a long time because both win more for honouring their promises rather than threatening war again soon.

Left-wing politicians can deliver economic reforms because they can deliver new voting blocs to the realignment of political coalitions. This new bloc of centre-left voters and some members of existing political and special interest groupings benefit from regrouping and joining new political coalitions that push through the reforms. An ageing society, budget deficits, technological innovations and shifts in production cost structures and in consumer demand can all make the existing political coalitions less rewarding than in the past.

Obama, Iran, Tom Schelling and the Bomb

If Obama was interested in peace, he should pay more attention to the writings of Thomas Schelling.

Schelling said that he did not know of any way to stop the Iranians from acquiring nuclear weapons and it is therefore important to have sophisticated enemies.

  • It took the U.S. 15 years after World War II to think seriously about the security of its nuclear weapons.
  • Before that, U.S. nuclear weapons did not even have combination locks, let alone complex electronic security codes!
  • Now, most nuclear weapons will not detonate even if given the right codes unless they are at their designated targets.

The Soviet Union always had civilian officials in charge of nuclear weapons, and never let an aircraft carrying these weapons out of Soviet airspace. China has a separate army unit for this purpose too.

What are the safeguards against theft, sabotage or unauthorised use, and how will the Iranian weapons be protected? Iran must learn from this. Schelling’s and Herman Kahn’s writings in the early 1960s on nuclear wars starting through accidents and misunderstandings led them to work with Kubrick on the script of Dr. Stangelove.

The ayatollahs do not want their own nation wiped off the map. They know that Israel has enough nuclear weapons and delivery systems to destroy Iran in retaliation for any attack. This would deter them.

The government of Iran is repulsive, but it has never given evidence that it is suicidal. In all likelihood, rhetoric about wiping Israel off the map is ideological blather.

Any government in Tehran would have to realise that an attack on America would be a regime-extinguishing event. Such an attack would be suicide, both politically and literally. 

The United States managed to deter some unpleasant and unpredictable people, including Stalin and Mao Zedong, from using nuclear weapons during the Cold War despite the USA’s own best efforts to provoke them from time to time. Israel and Iran may have noticed the success of that strategy too.

The USSR and China also played the ‘I am a crazy ideological zealot’ card too. Remember Mao and Khrushchev.

  • China became a nuclear power under Mao Zedong, a leader who exceeded even Stalin’s record of genocide. Mao’s publicly enunciated views on nuclear warfare were also alarming in the extreme.
  • China also emerged as a nuclear power on the eve of the Cultural Revolution. China, during that orgy of fanaticism, makes today’s Iran look like a normal, even sedate, country.

The Iranian mullahs take full political advantage of appearing to be mad and unpredictable. Iran’s leaders have nonetheless exhibited remarkably well timed moments of prudence and pragmatism. They have even fully reversed course when confronted with defeat such as when they started to really lose their war with Iraq.

Iran could always go for nuclear latency: the condition of a country possessing the technology to quickly build nuclear weapons without having actually yet done so. This avoids the costs and risks by refraining from exercising the overt nuclear capability option.

Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a work-around of the treaty is sometimes called the “Japan Option”. Japan is a clear case of a big advanced country with the complete technical prowess and nuclear materials to develop a nuclear weapon quickly.

A country does not test weapons nor declare its latent nuclear potential. Yet just keep the resources for a latent nuclear potential on hand for a crash programme.

Schelling defined diplomacy as being based on having some control over something that the other country wants. There must be something each has to bargain over.

No communications should be sent to Iran; there should be no informal dialogues. Wait for Iran to come to you because you have something they want. Only then will it become serious in striking a bargain.

How to negotiate a treaty on global warming

I found the best writer on global warming to be Thomas Schelling. Schelling has been involved with the global warming debate since chairing a commission on the subject for President Carter in 1980.

Schelling is an economist who specialises in strategy so he focuses on climate change as a bargaining problem. Schelling drew from his experiences with the negotiation of the Marshall Plan and NATO.

International agreements rarely work if they talk in terms of results. They work better if signatories promise to supply specific inputs – to perform specific actions now.

  • Individual NATO members did not, for example, promise to slow the Soviet invasion by 90 minutes if it happened after 1962.
  •  NATO members promised to raise and train troops, procure equipment and supplies, and immediately deploy these assets geographically. All of these actions can be observed, estimated and compared quickly. The NATO treaty was a few pages long.

The Kyoto Protocol commitments were not based on actions but on results, to be measured after more than a decade and several elections and a recession or two in between.

Climate treaties should promise to do certain actions now such as invest in R&D and develop carbon taxes that return the revenue as tax cuts. If the carbon tax revenue is fully refunded as tax cuts, less reliable countries, in particular, have an additional incentive to collect the carbon tax properly to keep their budget deficits under control.

Trade is a powerful force for peace in the Ukraine

Russian TV is starting to spin a Putin back-down in the Ukraine. Channel surfing, I came cross a Russian TV story alluding to Russians that the revenues from the Russian gas pipelines across the Ukraine to the EU are a major lifeline of the Russian economy.

The mere threat of repeated sabotage of these gas pipelines to Western Europe are an easy way to hurt Russia if it overplays its hand. That was the round-about topic of the TV story.

Trade was a powerful force for peace and is a defence against war, as the great Manchester liberal Richard Cobden championed in mid-19th century.

Both Russia and China have much more to lose and much less to gain from war because of their extensive trade links with their neighbours and their former Cold War rivals, including with each other. China’s extensive trade and investment links with Taiwan are the best guarantee of peace between them.

As Joseph Schumpeter observed, when free trade prevails, “no class” gains from forcible expansion: “foreign raw materials and food stuffs are as accessible to each nation as though they were in its own territory”. Patrick McDonald recently called free trade the invisible hand of peace.

Si vies pacem, para bellum

The Roman maxim ‘If you want peace, prepare for war’ is about the power of credible commitments in avoiding a violent form of bargaining called war. If you look threatening – have a great power to hurt – you can compel people to do what you want, which includes not attack you. Threats are cheap especially when you do not have to carry them out. You get what you want without any fighting.

Those that show the greatest credible prior commitment – those that burn their bridges – extract much more from bargaining that those that have options to fall back on. People fear cornered opponents.

Who picks a fight with someone who looks crazy or cannot back down? Who picks a fight with someone who carries himself or herself like a seasoned bar fighter?

As explained by David Friedman:

“Consider a bar room quarrel that starts with two customers arguing about baseball teams and ends with one dead and the other standing there with a knife in his hand and a dazed expression on his face.

Seen from one standpoint, this is a clear example of irrational and therefore uneconomic behaviour; the killer regrets what he has done as soon as he does it, so he obviously cannot have acted to maximize his own welfare.

Seen from another standpoint, it is the working out of a rational commitment to irrational action – the equivalent, on a small scale, of a doomsday machine going off.

Suppose I am strong, fierce, and known to have a short temper with people who do not do what I want. I benefit from that reputation; people are careful not to do things that offend me.

Actually beating someone up is expensive; he may fight back, and I may get arrested for assault. But if my reputation is bad enough, I may not have to beat anyone up.

To maintain that reputation, I train myself to be short-tempered. I tell myself and others that I am a real he-man, and he-men don’t let other people push them around. I gradually expand my definition of “push me around” until it is equivalent to “don’t do what I want.”

We usually describe this as an aggressive personality, but it may make just as much sense to think of it as a deliberate strategy rationally adopted.

Once the strategy is in place, I am no longer free to choose the optimal response in each situation; I have invested too much in my own self-image to be able to back down…

Not backing down once deterrence has failed may be irrational, but putting yourself in a situation where you cannot back down is not. Most of the time I get my own way; once in a while I have to pay for it.

I have no monopoly on my strategy; there are other short-tempered people in the world.

I get into a conversation in a bar. The other guy fails to show adequate deference to my opinions.

I start pushing. He pushes back. When it is over, one of us is dead.”

Tom Schelling’s fellow Nobel Prize winning game theorist Robert Aumann argued well that the way to peace is like bargaining in a medieval bazaar. Never look too keen, and bargain long and hard, for otherwise people will take great advantage of you! But again to quote Schelling:

“A government never knows just how committed it is to action until the occasion when its commitment is challenged.

Nations, like people, are continually engaged in demonstrations of resolve, tests of nerve, and explorations for understandings and misunderstandings…

This is why there is a genuine risk of major war not from ‘accidents’ in the military machine but through a diplomatic process of commitment that is itself unpredictable.”

That is why there was World War I. A state also can be tempted to start a war now to avoid having to deal with a stronger opponent in the future. That is why Britain and France declared war on Germany in 1939.

Should we fight for the Ukraine?

Murray Rothbard, in the context of the 1980 Afghan war, quoted Canon Sydney Smith – a great classical liberal in early 19th century England who wrote to his warmongering Prime Minister, thus:

“For God’s sake, do not drag me into another war!

I am worn down, and worn out, with crusading and defending Europe, and protecting mankind; I must think a little of myself.

I am sorry for the Spaniards – I am sorry for the Greeks – I deplore the fate of the Jews; the people of the Sandwich Islands are groaning under the most detestable tyranny; Baghdad is oppressed, I do not like the present state of the Delta; Tibet is not comfortable. Am I to fight for all these people?

The world is bursting with sin and sorrow. Am I to be champion of the Decalogue, and to be eternally raising fleets and armies to make all men good and happy?

We have just done saving Europe, and I am afraid the consequence will be, that we shall cut each other’s throats. No war, dear Lady Grey! – No eloquence; but apathy, selfishness, common sense, arithmetic!”

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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.

STOP THESE THINGS

The truth about the great wind power fraud - we're not here to debate the wind industry, we're here to destroy it.

Lindsay Mitchell

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Alt-M

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

croaking cassandra

Economics, public policy, monetary policy, financial regulation, with a New Zealand perspective

The Grumpy Economist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

International Liberty

Restraining Government in America and Around the World