Reverse causation fallacy

Tim Harding's avatarThe Logical Place

Recently on the Australian “Sunrise” TV program co-presenter David Koch said: “There have only been 3000 deaths from COVID, far less than that from influenza in the same period, so we should oppose the lockdowns”. This statement ignored the fact that prior to and during the vaccination rollout, lockdowns are likely to have prevented many thousands more deaths.

Similarly, some people argue against counter-terrorism measures on the grounds that there have been relatively few successful terrorist attacks in Australia, ignoring the fact that counter-terrorism has deterred and disrupted many more terrorist plots than those that have been carried out.

Several years ago, I was working as a regulatory consultant helping to remake sunsetting Victorian water regulations. Amongst other things, these regulations require the installation of backflow prevention devices on the customer’s water service pipe, just after the water meter. Backflow can result in contaminants being drawn into the drinking water…

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Why Wind Power Output Collapses Are Causing Europe’s Power Prices to Rocket

stopthesethings's avatarSTOP THESE THINGS

Rocketing power prices were inevitable once Europe decided to put all its energy eggs in the wind power basket. Europe has squandered billions on subsidies to construct tens of thousands of turbines both onshore and off – the Germans managed to spear more than 30,000 across their homeland and are paying a hefty price.

By giving grid preference to the erratic and occasional delivery of wind and solar, the owners of reliable on-demand generators are pushed to the back of the queue, rendering many operators uneconomic, which is all part of the plan.

The Germans, however, went further by effectively banning nuclear power generation (the plan is to shut down all of their nuclear plants) and sought to shut down their coal-fired power plants too, only to restart them in a dreadful hurry when wind power output collapsed for weeks last winter.

But it’s the chaos in the power market…

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Setting up the COVID-19 inquiry: an expert view

The Constitution Unit's avatarThe Constitution Unit Blog

The inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic is due to start work in the spring, chaired by Baroness (Heather) Hallett, a former Court of Appeal judge. It will be one of the most complex inquiries in legal history, and highly charged politically, with over 150,000 deaths so far, and the pandemic far from over. In January, the UCL Political Science Department hosted an expert panel discussion to pool advice on how best to set up a complex inquiry to ensure that it works speedily and efficiently, victims feel they have been heard, and the findings are accepted as legitimate. Ioana Măxineanu summarises their contributions.

On January 13th, the UCL Political Science Department hosted an online seminar entitled Setting Up the Covid Inquiry. The event was chaired by Robert Hazell, and brought together three distinguished panellists previously involved in high profile inquiries: Lord (Nicholas) Phillips, chair of the BSE Inquiry

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Vaccine persuasion is cheaper

Vincent Geloso's avatarEconomist Writing Every Day

Canadians are blocking a bridge. For Americans who like to engage in stereotypes about Canadians, this is inexplicable (even though the practice of blocking things in Canada is not new by any means). However, for me as an economist, it is entirely explicable.

Consider what vaccine mandates/passports (which is what initiated the current mayhem) do in pure economics terms: they raise costs for the unvaccinated. They do not alter the benefit of being vaccinated. All they do is raise costs. People could be more or less inelastic to this cost, but the fact that many are willing to spend time and resources (fuel, wear and tear of trucks etc.) to prevent such policies from continuing suggest that their behavior is not perfectly inelastic.

How elastic is it then? Well, we can see that by looking at what happens when we alter the benefit of being vaccinated. This is…

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The OECD’s Narrow (and Warped) Perspective on Taxation

Dan Mitchell's avatarInternational Liberty

More than 11 years ago, the Center for Freedom and Prosperity released this video about the OECD, a Paris-based bureaucracy subsidized by American taxpayers.

As outlined in the video, there are many reasons to dislike the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

As a fan of tax competition, I don’t like the OECD because the bureaucrats persecute jurisdictions with low tax burdens.

But the bureaucracy’s pro-tax harmonization campaign is a symptom of a broader problem, which is that the OECD relentlessly advocates for higher taxes.

Consider the recent publication entitled “Fighting Tax Crime – The Ten Global Principles.” As you can see, nine of those ten principles involve more power and authority for government.

Since I’m not an anarcho-capitalist, I realize some taxation is necessary (ideally only the amount needed to finance genuine public goods).

As such, I don’t necessarily condemn enforcement policies.

But…

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New Rule: Equality of Outcomes | Real Time with Bill Maher

Bobby Bacala and Silvio’s asthma attack

Colleen Hewett ‘Day by Day’ .. ultrarare extended mix

Paul Eddington: A Life Well Lived 3/3

Oliver Reed on Parkinson

The Most Wuthering Heights Day Ever – Perth

Aliens or coincidence

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100074955873717&sk=community_permalink&story_id=1850887668437086&sfnsn=mo&ref=share

Atomic Attraction: Wind Power’s Abject Failure Forces Europe to Embrace Nuclear Power

stopthesethings's avatarSTOP THESE THINGS

To call Europe’s rapid embrace of nuclear power ‘passionate’ is not overstatement. Much to the horror of wind and solar acolytes, a growing number of EU members are ready to declare nuclear power is not only clean and green, but wholly sustainable.

Wind and solar-obsessed Germans and Brits are watching power prices go into orbit and the pro-renewables camp has been forced to grapple with months-long wind droughts when so-called ‘green’ energy couldn’t be bought at any price.

Necessity may well be the mother of invention, but the stark realisation that wind power output can collapse for days and weeks on end is certainly the mother of a renewed attraction to nuclear power.

After months of watching wind power output barely register across Europe, the French President announced a wholesale reversal of their anti-nuclear power plant policy, no doubt driven by the need to ensure that they will never…

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Procol Harum – A Whiter Shade of Pale, live in Denmark 2006

Retiring Covid Dashboards

Ron Clutz's avatarScience Matters

UF dashboard to end of 2021. Now retired.

Michael Lauzardo wrote at Washington Post We stopped tracking coronavirus cases at the University of Florida. Here’s why. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Our covid ‘dashboard’ had reported more cases than any other university in the country.
But the data was increasingly unreliable.

For nearly two years, I oversaw the coronavirus “dashboard” at the University of Florida. On that site, we posted the number of tests performed at the university each day, the percentage that were positive and the total number of cases. We also relayed how many students and faculty members were in isolation or quarantine. The dashboard was a tool that people on our campus referred to, and that the national media monitored (along with similar dashboards at hundreds of other schools) as they tracked the coronavirus situation at colleges and universities. In a typical…

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