Secret Tapes of the final Copenhagen Summit negotiations, starring Obama, Brown, Sarko & Merkel

In Copenhagen’s final private negotiations, Obama, Brown, Sarko and Merkel sat down with He Yafei, the Chinese vice-minister of foreign affairs. There is a tape of this meeting at Der Spiegel

He Yafei was the smartest guy in the room. Wen Jiabao refused to attend most of the negotiating sessions.

Given the choice of walking out or sitting down with a vice-minister, they chose humiliation. One response of Obama was:

It would be nice to negotiate with somebody who can make political decisions.

There were still two important placeholders, X and Y, in the draft agreement. They marked the spots where the percentage targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, for the industrialized nations and emerging countries respectively, were to be entered.

China and India were unwilling to make that commitment. They had reached their own agreement with Brazil and South Africa.

"We have all along been saying ‘Don’t prejudge options!,’" said a representative of the Indian delegation*, prompting Merkel to burst out: "Then you don’t want legally binding!"

The entire discussion at Der Spiegel in multiple parts should be read while listening to the tape.

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The intriguing public choice history of the Kyoto protocol

The US Senate voted 95-0 in July 1997 that the Kyoto Protocol would not be ratified because it excluded certain developing countries, including India and China, from having to comply with new emissions standards.

Disregarding the Senate Resolution, Vice President Al Gore symbolically signed the Protocol on November 12, 1998.

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Knowing that the Kyoto Protocol would not be passed without the inclusion of developing countries in some way, Clinton did not even send the Protocol to the U.S. Senate for ratification. Clinton had 801 days in office to submit it, but did not. As it was going to be rejected, it cost him nothing to sign it and he won the support of expressive voters. Bush was criticised for not doing what Clinton also failed to do.

The EU made demands that the USA would not accept so that the treaty would not include the USA. This allowed EU ministers to look good to expressive voters back home by standing staunch and not compromising.

US non-participation made participation cheaper for the EU because the USA would not be competing for carbon credits, so the price of carbon would be much less.

There was an emergency night time meeting to save the Copenhagen Summit called by Gordon Brown. He was joined by Obama, Sarkozy, Merkel and PM Hatoyama of Japan. To make a point, China sent a rather out-spoken vice foreign minister of foreign affairs. He was the smartest guy in the room.

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