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Squeamishness kills alert: were the atomic bombings unnecessary? Would have Japan surrendered anyway?

https://twitter.com/makingdayscount/status/629162313879154688

https://twitter.com/historyfacts247/status/629304405024763904

https://twitter.com/AmericanVet3/status/630359758273384448

Jim Rose's avatarUtopia, you are standing in it!

Those that argue that Japan surrendered for reasons other than the atomic bomb put forward contradictory arguments.

The first is the Japan was already seeking terms for surrender. That is true, but among those terms was avoiding occupation.

The Japanese leadership had already interpreted the terms of the Potsdam declaration was a sign of weakness. They hoped that by making the invasion of Japan as bloody as possible, they could extract even better terms in light of this sign of weakness at Potsdam. Kyushu, the  obvious initial invasion site in southern Japan, was  being heavily reinforced  by the middle of 1945.

Japan no longer had a realistic prospect of winning the war by the end of 1994 and they knew it.

Japan’s leaders believed they could make the cost of conquering Japan too high for the Allies to accept, leading to some sort of armistice rather than total defeat. The Japanese…

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Modern European borders superimposed over Europe in 1914

What a great fort!

This week in the Syrian civil war

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/625742628450115587/photo/1

Arab Gulf states vastly outspend Iran on military

ISIS terrorist attacks this year

https://twitter.com/nytgraphics/status/625780164610379777/photo/1

John Howard’s birthday – what I admire most about him

What I admire most about John Howard was his decision to intervene in East Timor to stop massacres, which were a by-product of succession struggles within TNI. Howard didn’t have to do that. He didn’t.

If there ever was a prime directive in Australian national security policy, more so than have a great and powerful friend (first the UK, than the USA, dumping Britain like a stone in 1941 when a better great and powerful friend became available), it’s never put Australian military forces in a position risking an exchange of fire with TNI.

That did happen during the East Timor intervention. There were armed stand-offs at roadblocks between the Australian Army and TNI. Platoon leaders in the Australian Army had to keep their cool with guns drawn on both sides otherwise it would be a real shooting war that could spiral out of control.

That is why there is a genuine risk of major war not from accidents in the military machine but through a diplomatic process of commitment and escalation that is itself unpredictable. Schelling also argues that nations, like people, are continually engaged in demonstrations of resolve, tests of nerve, and explorations for understandings and many misunderstandings.

In Schelling’s view, many wars including World War 1 were products of mutual alarm and unpredictable tests of will. When people discuss the futility of World War 1, they under rate the role of unintended consequences and the dark side of human rationality in situations involving collective action.

Indonesia and its politically ambitious and corrupt military wing are next door to Australia forever. A pragmatic approach is a necessity of survival along such a volatile border.

That’s actually why Whitlam did what he did, and sat on his hands over the East Timor massacres in 1975. Australia had no credible capability of intervening, particularly against a country with such a large military and unstable politics. In 1975, the Indonesian military most certainly would have shot back.

What do American soldiers get paid

For the first time in 14 years, USA not engaged in a major ground war

The current state of play in Syria

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