LPL Financial analyzed 25 major geopolitical episodes, dating back to Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. “Total drawdowns around these events have been fairly limited,” Jeff Buchbinder, LPL’s chief equity strategist, wrote in a research note on Monday. (Full recoveries often “take only a few weeks to a couple of months,” he added.) Deutsche Bank analysts […]
Markets are forward-looking
Markets are forward-looking
18 Jun 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, defence economics, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, macroeconomics, market efficiency, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: efficient markets hypothesis, World War II
What Explains Growing Gender and Racial Education Gaps?
16 Jun 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, economics of love and marriage, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, occupational choice, poverty and inequality Tags: gender wage gap, racial discrimination, sex discrimination
In the 1960 cohort, American men and women graduated from college at similar rates, and this was true for Whites, Blacks and Hispanics. But in more recent cohorts, women graduate at much higher rates than men. Gaps between race/ethnic groups have also widened. To understand these patterns, we develop a model of individual and family […]
What Explains Growing Gender and Racial Education Gaps?
Effects of Zoning: when we restrict supply, prices go up.
14 Jun 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, income redistribution, law and economics, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking, urban economics Tags: housing affordability, land supply, zoning
US State-Level Abortion Regulations: Causes and Effects
23 May 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, gender, health economics, labour economics, politics - USA, population economics Tags: abortion law reform
Regulations about abortion are often wildly controversial. But what effects to they actually have? Caitlin Myers addresses these issues in “From Roe to Dobbs: 50 Years of Cause and Effect of US State Abortion Regulations” (Annual Review of Public Health 2025, pp. 433-446). As a starting point, consider the years before and after the 1973 US Supreme Court…
US State-Level Abortion Regulations: Causes and Effects
Live at 1 p.m. Eastern: SHOCK CLIMATE REPORT! Urban Heat Islands Responsible for 65% of Global Warming
18 May 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economics of climate change, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
A new study from the University of Alabama in Huntsville addresses the question of how much the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is responsible for the higher temperatures at weather stations across the world. Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy have spent several years developing a novel method that quantifies, for the first time, the average UHI warming effects related to population density. Their finding: no less than 65% of “runaway global warming” is not caused by our emissions of carbon dioxide, but by the urbanization of the world.
Live at 1 p.m. Eastern: SHOCK CLIMATE REPORT! Urban Heat Islands Responsible for 65% of Global Warming
Some Links
13 May 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, international economics, survivor principle Tags: free trade, tariffs
TweetNicholas Bloom, Kyle Handley, André Kurmann, and Philip A. Luck revisit the “China Shock.” Two slices: Our research investigates the extent to which the opposing trends in manufacturing and services job growth are related. Our findings reveal that local labor markets more exposed to Chinese import competition experienced larger manufacturing job losses. But these losses…
Some Links
Some weak evidence in favour of an information intervention in economics to close the gender gap
05 May 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economics of education, experimental economics, gender, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice Tags: gender gap, sex discrimination
I’ve written a couple of times about information interventions designed to attract more female students to study economics (see here and here). The results have generally been disappointing. That shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. If it was really simple to get people to change their behaviour with information, then advertising would be far…
Some weak evidence in favour of an information intervention in economics to close the gender gap
Interview with Robert Barro: Empirical Macroeconomics
24 Apr 2025 1 Comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics
Jon Hartley serves as interlocutor in “Revisiting Empirical Macroeconomics with Robert Barro” (Hoover Institution, Capitalism and Freedom Podcast, March 25, 2025, audio and transcript available). Here are a few of the comments from Barro that especially caught my eye. One basic question in economics is about “the multiplier”–that is, how much will an increase in…
Interview with Robert Barro: Empirical Macroeconomics
Long-Run Effects of Trade Wars
24 Apr 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, econometerics, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, unemployment Tags: 2024 presidential election, free trade, tariffs, unintended consequences
This short note shows that accounting for capital adjustment is critical when analyzing the long-run effects of trade wars on real wages and consumption. The reason is that trade wars increase the relative price between investment goods and labor by taxing imported investment goods and their inputs. This price shift depresses capital demand, shrinks the […]
Long-Run Effects of Trade Wars
Not much parliamentary scrutiny
01 Apr 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, inflation targeting, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, unemployment Tags: economics of pandemics, monetary policy
This was the post I was planning to write this morning to mark Orr’s final day. That said, if the underlying events – deliberate attempts to mislead Parliament – were Orr’s doing, the post is more about the apparent uselessness of Parliament (specifically the Finance and Expenditure Committee) in holding him and the rest of […]
Not much parliamentary scrutiny
Minimal gender wage gap in NZ!
30 Mar 2025 Leave a comment
in discrimination, econometerics, economics of education, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality Tags: gender wage gap, sex discrimination
Personality traits and gender gaps
30 Mar 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economics of education, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice Tags: gender wage gap
This paper examines the effects of the Big Five personality traits on labor market outcomes and gender wage gaps using a job search and bargaining model with parameters that vary at the individual level. The analysis, based on German panel data, reveals that both cognitive and noncognitive traits significantly influence wages and employment outcomes. Higher […]
Personality traits and gender gaps
The importance of the chronometer
24 Mar 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, industrial organisation, transport economics, urban economics Tags: Age of Discovery
The chronometer, one of the greatest inventions of the modern era, allowed for the first time for the precise measurement of longitude at sea. We examine the impact of this innovation on navigation and urbanization. Our identification strategy leverages the fact that the navigational benefits provided by the chronometer varied across different sea regions depending […]
The importance of the chronometer
Beware: Flawed Energy Assumptions Incite Delusional Scenarios
23 Mar 2025 1 Comment
in econometerics, economic history, economics of climate change, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming
Mark P. Mills and Neil Atkinson blow the whistle on projections written in International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report, the World Energy Outlook. Below is the announcement of the report findings, key exhibits and Executive summary, excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images. Link to full study at the end. Overview Industry players […]
Beware: Flawed Energy Assumptions Incite Delusional Scenarios
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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