Recently Alex raised some doubts, to say the least, about the Card-Krueger view of minimum wage hikes. Well, it turns out there is more, and a new consensus is on the verge of forming. Here are David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff, and Simon Mongey, from a new Econometrica piece: Many argue that minimum wages can prevent efficiency […]
Minimum Wages, Efficiency, and Welfare
Minimum Wages, Efficiency, and Welfare
17 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, econometerics, labour economics, labour supply, minimum wage
New Study: Today’s Climate Models ‘Do Not Agree With Reality’ And Thus Their Usefulness Is ‘Doubtful’
15 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history, economics of climate change, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming
Because the current state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate the trends and variances in global precipitation over the last 84 years (1940-2023), their usefulness should be reconsidered. Hydrological processes – ocean circulation, water vapor, clouds – are key components of climate, easily overshadowing the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by a factor of 2,100…
New Study: Today’s Climate Models ‘Do Not Agree With Reality’ And Thus Their Usefulness Is ‘Doubtful’
Does the Gender Wage Gap Actually Reflect Taste Discrimination Against Women?
11 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economics of education, economics of information, economics of media and culture, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply Tags: gender wage gap
One explanation of the gender wage gap is taste discrimination, as in Becker (1957). We test for taste discrimination by constructing a novel measure of misogyny using Google Trends data on searches that include derogatory terms for women. We find—surprisingly, in our view—that misogyny is an economically meaningful and statistically significant predictor of the wage […]
Does the Gender Wage Gap Actually Reflect Taste Discrimination Against Women?
Gender gaps in education and declining marriage rates
06 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of love and marriage, economics of marriage, human capital, labour economics, law and economics, poverty and inequality Tags: assortative mating, economics of fertility
Over the past half-century, the share of men enrolled in college has steadily declined relative to women. Today, 1.6 million more women than men attend four-year colleges in the U.S. This trend has not lowered marriage rates for college women, a substantial share of whom have historically married economically stable men without college degrees. Both […]
Gender gaps in education and declining marriage rates
*Progressive Myths*: The Caplan-Huemer Interview
05 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history, law and economics, liberalism, Marxist economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: Age of Enlightenment, conjecture and refutation, free speech, philosophy of science, political correctness, regressive left
I recently interviewed Mike Huemer on his new Progressive Myths. To repeat, I consider it “the best book on wokeness.” You know you’re reading a special book by page 3, when Huemer states:I will not give a neutral presentation in the following chapters, but I do aim to give an objective presentation. I am a…
*Progressive Myths*: The Caplan-Huemer Interview
The Child Penalty: An International View
03 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economics of education, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice Tags: economics of fertility, gender wage gap, marriage and divorce
It’s well-known that when a couple has a child, the average woman experiences a “child penalty” in labor market outcomes, while outcomes for the man are largely unchanged. For a discussion of this pattern using US data, here’s an article by Jane Waldfogel from back in 1998 in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. As that…
The Child Penalty: An International View
Technological Disruption in the Labor Market
02 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history, human capital, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, poverty and inequality, unemployment Tags: creative destruction
By David J. Deming, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence H. Summers. From NPR’s Planet Money. Summers was Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001, director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010 and president of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006.”Obviously, there is a big fear right now that artificial intelligence will kill…
Technological Disruption in the Labor Market
When did sustained economic growth begin?
31 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, history of economic thought, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality Tags: The Great Enrichment
The subtitle is New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870, and the authors are Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson. Abstract: We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these […]
When did sustained economic growth begin?
The 1920s immigration restrictions
29 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA Tags: economics of immigration, racial discrimination
The 1920s immigration restrictions in the US did not affect manufacturing wages. The US immigration restrictions of the 1920s lowered the occupational standings of whites and incumbent immigrants. US counties with more immigrants excluded by the quotas of the 1920s saw increased in-migration. During the Great Black Migration of the US, black southerners moved to […]
The 1920s immigration restrictions
A Wartime Natural Experiment About Copyright
26 Jan 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, defence economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of education, economics of information, economics of media and culture, economics of regulation, industrial organisation, law and economics, politics - USA, property rights, war and peace Tags: patents and copyrights, World War II
One of the hardest questions in copyright policy is: “What would have happened otherwise?” When Disney lobbies for longer copyright terms or academic publishers defend high subscription fees, we struggle to evaluate their claims because we can’t observe the counterfactual. What would happen to creativity and innovation if we shortened copyright terms or lowered prices? […]
A Wartime Natural Experiment About Copyright
The impact of Fox News on American democracy
20 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, politics - USA Tags: 2008 presidential election, 2012 presidential election, 2016 US presidential election, 2020 presidential election, 2024 presidential election, media bias
In yesterday’s post, I noted a number of opportunities for research on the economics of social media. At least one of those opportunities intersected with the impact of traditional media. So, I was interested to read this new article by Elliott Ash, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna (all ETH Zurich), and Christopher Warshaw (George Washington University), published…
The impact of Fox News on American democracy
Bad leaders solicit bad advice
16 Jan 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: child poverty, family poverty
When Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister, she was determined to increase income for children in welfare-dependent families – her magic bullet for solving child poverty. The Welfare Expert Advisory Group, led by Cindy Kiro, was convened to make the desired recommendations. A number of evidence briefs were provided to the group, one concerned the “likely…
Bad leaders solicit bad advice
Evolving Returns to Personality
12 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, health economics, human capital, labour supply, occupational choice
Weanalyze trends in labor-market returns to psychological traits using data from half a million Finnish men from 2001 to 2015. Cognitive skills’ value declined, while noncognitive skills’ value increased. Our novel findings show that extraversion drives this rise, while conscientiousness remains stable. Extraversion’s rising returns are most pronounced for lower earners and those on the […]
Evolving Returns to Personality
Nordhaus on the Perils of Long-Term Forecasting
01 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history Tags: The Great Enrichment
When people try to think about the long-term future, by which I mean here looking a half-century or a century ahead, they often suffer a lack of imagination. As a common example, they take today’s problems and just multiply them by a factor of ten. Or they assume that improved central planning, in one form…
Nordhaus on the Perils of Long-Term Forecasting
The end of oil?
05 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of climate change, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, law and economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, rentseeking, resource economics Tags: peak oil
It is now plausible to envision scenarios in which global demand for crude oil falls to essentially zero by the end of this century, driven by improvements in clean energy technologies, adoption of stringent climate policies, or both. This paper asks what such a demand decline, when anticipated, might mean for global oil supply. One […]
The end of oil?
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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