War is so terrible that the first moral impulse is often to demand that it stop immediately. That impulse is understandable. No decent person can look at destroyed cities, dead civilians, grieving families and exhausted soldiers without longing for silence, relief and peace. But the demand for a ceasefire can also become a flawed knee-jerk […]
Against Instant Ceasefires
Against Instant Ceasefires
29 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in defence economics, economic history, war and peace Tags: unintended consequences
The Luddites Were the First to Attack AI
28 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply Tags: creative destruction
Everyone knows the Luddites smashed looms. What is less appreciated is that the loom was the first serious programmable device — the direct ancestor of the computer. Thus, the Luddites weren’t just the first to resist automation. They were the first to attack AI. The Jacquard loom, introduced in France circa 1805, used a chain…
The Luddites Were the First to Attack AI
Quotation of the Day…
27 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, entrepreneurship, history of economic thought, industrial organisation Tags: industry policy
Tweet… is from page 815 of Richard Nelson’s and Richard Langlois’s February 1983 Science paper titled “Industrial Innovation Policy: Lessons from American History”: A quick reading of the case studies is enough to dash any supposition that technological change is somehow a cleanly plannable activity. In fact, it is an activity characterized as much by…
Quotation of the Day…
Why do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?
27 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, labour economics, labour supply
In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals, an extensive margin of participation, multi-member households, and an elaborate…
Why do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?
Why Religious Beliefs Are Irrational, and Why Economists Should Care
27 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, economics of religion
My opening statement for my 2005 debate versus Larry Iannaccone
Why Religious Beliefs Are Irrational, and Why Economists Should Care
The History of Music Piracy: Did It Really Hurt the Music Industry?
26 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, economics of media and culture, law and economics, Music, property rights Tags: copyrights and patents
For as long as there has been recorded music, there have been attempts to copy, share, and distribute it without paying for it. Music piracy is often painted as a villain in the story of the modern music industry—accused of draining billions in revenue, shuttering record stores, and crippling artist careers. But is that the […]
The History of Music Piracy: Did It Really Hurt the Music Industry?
Cargo Cult Climate Economics
26 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of climate change, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
Part 2 of 2 on a damning new paper that takes on the top-down climate-economics literature — “The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship”
Cargo Cult Climate Economics
The Pernicious Trade Account
26 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, financial economics, history of economic thought, international economics Tags: balance of trade
The trade accounts are among the most pernicious statistics ever collected. It’s long been remarked, for example, that merely by calling something a “deficit” it seems bad even though a current account deficit is matched by a financial account surplus. Put that issue aside, however, because the real problems are much deeper. The international accounts…
The Pernicious Trade Account
Is each American generation doing better?
23 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history Tags: The Great Enrichment
We construct a posttax, posttransfer income measure from 1963 to 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement that allows us to consistently compare the economic well-being of five generations of Americans at ages 36–40. We find that Millennials had a real median household income that was 20% higher than that…
Is each American generation doing better?
The Paper That Breaks Climate Economics
22 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of climate change, economics of natural disasters, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, growth miracles
Part 1 of 2 on a damning new paper that takes on the top-down climate-economics literature — “The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship”
The Paper That Breaks Climate Economics
The Chinese Current Account Imbalances
21 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of love and marriage, financial economics, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: China
The subtitle of the paper is Puzzles, Patterns, and Possible Causes. Here is the abstract: China’s large current account surplus has been an irritant to its trading partners. While industrial and trade policies often lead to sector-level imbalances, they play a relatively limited role in the economy-wide surplus. Structural factors such as an unbalanced sex…
The Chinese Current Account Imbalances
The President(s) Fought the Law and the Law Won
18 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, history of economic thought, income redistribution, industrial organisation, international economics, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, rentseeking, survivor principle Tags: creative destruction, free trade, tarrifs
In our textbook, Modern Principles, Tyler and I emphasize that Congress and the President are subject to a higher law, the law of supply and demand. In an excellent column, Jason Furman gives a clear example of how difficult it is to fight the law of inelastic demand: …Today a given number of autoworkers can…
The President(s) Fought the Law and the Law Won
The economic value of eliminating cancer
14 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, econometerics, economic history, health economics Tags: life expectancies
This paper estimates the economic value to the United States of eliminating cancer mortality over a 35-year horizon beginning in 2030, which would eliminate 30.7 million cancer deaths with a total mortality burden of 380 million life-years. We quantify the economic value of this substantial reduction in cancer mortality by incorporating the monetized value of…
The economic value of eliminating cancer
The Happiness Crash of 2020
13 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, technological progress
From the still-active Sam Peltzman: I document a sudden, sharp and historically unprecedented decline in self-reported happiness in the US population. It occurred during 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic, and mainly persists through 2024. This happiness crash spread across nearly all typical demographics and geographies. The happiest groups pre-Covid (e.g., whites, high income,…
The Happiness Crash of 2020
That time we gave Cocaine to our kids for a sore throat and toothaches.
12 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of regulation, health economics
How things have changed. Nowadays we wouldn’t dream of giving our children cocaine to treat sore throats or toothaches, Firstly because we know how devastating cocaine is and secondly we would be arrested, But in days of yore it was perfectly acceptable to give you offspring and indeed yourself a ‘healthy’ dose of cocaine.
That time we gave Cocaine to our kids for a sore throat and toothaches.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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