We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply,…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
02 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
The Treaty – Drowning in a sea of misinformation in 2026
01 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, economic history, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, property rights Tags: constitutional law, political correctness, racial discrimination, regressive left
I write this as a descendant of Henry Williams, who arrived here in 1823 as an ex Royal Navy officer and Head of the Church Missionary Society of New Zealand. He translated the Treaty of Waitangi into te reo Maori in 1840. The document he prepared with his eldest son Edward, on the evening of […]
The Treaty – Drowning in a sea of misinformation in 2026
The history of anti-semitism
27 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in defence economics, economic history, economics of crime, law and economics, liberalism, politics, war and peace Tags: Nazi Germany, The Holocaust racial discrimination, World War II
Ashley Church writes: The Holocaust did not begin with the gas chambers of Auschwitz or Treblinka. It began much earlier, with ideas, laws, exclusions, and the slow normalisation of cruelty. The part that history often forgets. When Hitler became Chancellor of Germany in 1933, there was no plan to exterminate the Jews. What did exist…
The history of anti-semitism
The bizarre world of Advertising
26 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of information, economics of media and culture, history of economic thought, industrial organisation
It is not often I am speechless but that is exactly what I was when I saw some of these advertisements and products from days of yore. You would not get away with it by today’s standards. Vintage newspaper ad for heroin Who doesn’t like a bit of cocaine on their candy. Stay fit and […]
The bizarre world of Advertising
Is There a Political Downside to Tax Migration?
24 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA, Public Choice, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
I’m a big fan of tax migration. I cheer when productive people escape high-tax states or high-tax nations. And when the geese with the golden eggs fly away, it thwarts the plans of greedy politicians. The latest example of this is the exodus of billionaires – worried about a wealth tax – from California (the […]
Is There a Political Downside to Tax Migration?
The Economic Burden of Protectionism, Part III
23 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA, survivor principle
In Part I and Part II of this series, we looked at research showing that Americans are bearing the burden of Trump’s trade taxes. Those findings are a useful antidote to Trump’s silly and illiterate claim that foreign companies are swallowing the added cost. In both of those columns, however, I pointed out that I’m […]
The Economic Burden of Protectionism, Part III
A course of indoctrination at the University of Chicago
19 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in defence economics, discrimination, economic history, economics of crime, International law, law and economics, laws of war, liberalism, Marxist economics, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: economics of colonialism, Gaza Strip, Israel, Middle-East politics, regressive left, war against terror, West Bank
There are many courses in universities that seem not to be exercises in objective teaching and learning, but rather courses designed to foist certain political ideologies or points of view on students. One of them at this university was called to my attention by several in our community; it seems to be a course on…
A course of indoctrination at the University of Chicago
Any Hope for a European Economic Renaissance?
18 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, economics of education, economics of regulation, fiscal policy, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics Tags: European Union
The good news is that Europe has a lot of economic freedom by world standards. Especially Western Europe. The bad news is that economic freedom has been declining in Western Europe. To make matters worse, Europe has a big demographic problem, with a growing number of older people over time who have been promised benefits […]
Any Hope for a European Economic Renaissance?
The rise and fall of British gambling
18 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of regulation, health economics
Most people know that the number of drinkers and smokers is in decline in the UK, but you might be surprised to hear that the same is true of gamblers. For the first time since the early 1990s, gamblers are in the minority with only 48% of English adults engaging in any gambling activity in…
The rise and fall of British gambling
Pinker and Tupy tout worldwide progress, espouse an objective morality
15 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, economics of religion, liberalism, Marxist economics Tags: Age of Enlightenment, free speech
In this Free Press article, Steve Pinker and Marian Tupy (the latter identified as “the founder and editor of HumanProgress.org, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, and co-author of Superabundance”) once again recount the undoubtable progress that humanity has made over the past six or seven centuries. The progress described here will be familiar…
Pinker and Tupy tout worldwide progress, espouse an objective morality
In support of a pragmatic alliance
13 Feb 2026 1 Comment
in constitutional political economy, economic history, economics of crime, economics of religion, law and economics, liberalism, Marxist economics, property rights Tags: political correctness, free speech, regressive left
For centuries, atheists, Christians, and Jews have regarded one another as intellectual and cultural adversaries. Their disagreements are real and often profound. They disagree about the existence of God, the authority of scripture, the nature of morality, the meaning of history, and the destiny of humanity. These disputes have generated entire libraries of argument and […]
In support of a pragmatic alliance
Asian Americans: Two Alternate Histories
10 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply Tags: China, Japan, economics of immigration, The Philippines
In editing two papers on Asian American immigration for the Winter 2026 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives (where I work as Managing Editor), I found myself musing over two alternative histories: one about more such immigration, one about less. Hannah Postel describes “Asian Immigration to the United States in Historical Perspective” (Journal of Economic…
Asian Americans: Two Alternate Histories
The Rise and Fall (and Rise) of Sweden, Part III
10 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, economic growth, economic history, economics of regulation, fiscal policy, income redistribution, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: Sweden
Based on a video from the Center for Freedom and Prosperity back in 2010, as well a video from Johan Norberg I shared in 2016, there’s a lot to learn by looking at Swedish economic history. Here’s a more recent video that also looks at that nation’s economic track record. You’ll notice a similar message […]
The Rise and Fall (and Rise) of Sweden, Part III
New Zealand Emancipation Day
06 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of crime, law and economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: age of empires, Age of Enlightenment, constitutional law, economics of slavery, regressive left
Today we celebrate the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi – a day which should be called Emancipation Day. For on the 6th of February 1840, slavery became illegal in New Zealand. The granting of British citizenship to Maori freed the slaves in law (the practice took a while longer to end) Slavery was not…
New Zealand Emancipation Day
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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