@JosephEStiglitz talks sense on flaws of the #TPPA @ItsOurFutureNZ @greencatherine @RusselNorman

Joe Stiglitz occasionally gets it right such as this week when he spoke about the downside of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. As he said:

The reality is that this is an agreement to manage its members’ trade and investment relations – and to do so on behalf of each country’s most powerful business lobbies.

Make no mistake: It is evident from the main outstanding issues, over which negotiators are still haggling, that the TPP is not about “free” trade.

Because of all the haggling over the trade-offs where you do something stupid in return for the other side doing something sensible in terms of liberalisation or something equally stupid in additional regulation, the gains in the agreement can be quite small. Again as Joe Stiglitz explains:

New Zealand has threatened to walk away from the agreement over the way Canada and the US manage trade in dairy products. Australia is not happy with how the US and Mexico manage trade in sugar.

And the US is not happy with how Japan manages trade in rice. These industries are backed by significant voting blocs in their respective countries. And they represent just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how the TPP would advance an agenda that actually runs counter to free trade.

The case for intellectual property rights over drugs is complicated but no one seems to be suggesting that patents should be lengthened.

Far more can be gained in terms of drug availability through regulatory reforms that streamline the drug safety approval process which is currently costing many people their lives.

Sam Peltzman showed in a famous paper in 1973 that the 1962 amendments to US Federal drug approval laws reduced the introduction of effective new drugs in the USA from an average of forty-three annually in the decade before the 1962 amendments to sixteen annually in the ten years afterwards. No increase in drug safety was identified.

The most bizarre part of drug approval processes is they go beyond the checking whether the new drug is safe. What is even more bizarre in New Zealand is the New Zealand drug safety agency duplicates safety processes already performed overseas. This is instead of automatically approving any drug or medical device approved in the USA, UK, Canada or Australia.

Drug safety regulators in the USA also check to see if the drug works – that the drug has its predicted effects. Drug safety is a health policy concern but whether the investors developed a useful drug is something between them and those interested in buying it. Drugs became available years after they were on the market outside the USA because of drug lags at the FDA. To quote David Friedman:

In 1981… the FDA published a press release confessing to mass murder. That was not, of course, the way in which the release was worded; it was simply an announcement that the FDA had approved the use of timolol, a ß-blocker, to prevent recurrences of heart attacks.

At the time timolol was approved, ß-blockers had been widely used outside the U.S. for over ten years. It was estimated that the use of timolol would save from seven thousand to ten thousand lives a year in the U.S.

So the FDA, by forbidding the use of ß-blockers before 1981, was responsible for something close to a hundred thousand unnecessary deaths.

It is a pity that the far left movement ranted against the TPP focused on conspiratorial theories about investor state dispute settlement rather than the risks of this trade deal to the cost of drugs to the health sector. Only late in the game did the far left start talking about drug availability and the costs of drugs to the health budget of the government if patent lives were extended under the TPPA.

A campaign against the TPPA on the basis of its impact on drug availability because of longer patent terms running up against the limited budgets of pharmaceutical purchasing agencies would have appealed across the entire political spectrum. As Joe Stiglitz explains:

The TPP would manage trade in pharmaceuticals through a variety of seemingly arcane rule changes on issues such as “patent linkage,” “data exclusivity,” and “biologics.”

The upshot is that pharmaceutical companies would effectively be allowed to extend – sometimes almost indefinitely – their monopolies on patented medicines, keep cheaper generics off the market, and block “biosimilar” competitors from introducing new medicines for years. That is how the TPP will manage trade for the pharmaceutical industry if the US gets its way.

The health sector can only so much to buy drugs. If drug patents last longer, there is less money to go around because the generics become available later than otherwise.

The only person who is safe in a gun-free zone is the man with a gun

Homicide rates for young American males since 1980

The explosion in the murder rate in the USA during the crack cocaine epidemic appears to mainly be confined to young black Americans and to a lesser extent Latino youth.

Source: Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

Number of beers you can buy with your monthly minimum wage in Europe

Creative destruction in car pollution

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George Stigler and the role of scientists in public policy

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RT @NZGreens @GreenpeaceNZ @KevinHague Allow Golden Rice Now

Drug Price Controls End Up Costing Patients Their Lives

Our research shows that when prices fall, innovation falls even more. Patients would see their lives cut short by delayed or absent drugs.

Source: Drug Price Controls End Up Costing Patients Their Health – NYTimes.com

…cutting prices by 40 to 50 percent in the United States will lead to between 30 and 60 percent fewer R and D projects being undertaken in the early stage of developing a new drug. Relatively modest price changes, such as 5 or 10 percent, are estimated to have relatively little impact on the incentives for product development – perhaps a negative 5 percent.

Source: The Effect of Price Controls on Pharmaceutical Research

Source: U.S. Pharmaceutical Policy In A Global Marketplace

Stigler on economics as a big tent @RusselNorman @NZGreens @GreenpeaceNZ @Mark_J_Perry

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The dangerous left-wing bias of economists strikes again

The left-wing bias of economists must be taken into account in public policy-making. Any suggestions to regulate the economy, spend our way out of a recession, increase the top tax rate and so on must be discounted for that well-known but little publicised political bias.

Source: Economists Aren’t As Nonpartisan As We Think | FiveThirtyEight

As is not well-known enough, Cardiff and Klein (2005) used voter registration data to rank disciplines at Californian Ivy League universities by Democrat to Republican ratios. Economics is the most conservative social science, with a Democrat to Republican ratio of a mere 2.8 to 1. This can be contrasted with sociology (44 to 1), political science (6.5 to 1) and anthropology (10.5 to 1). 40% of Americans are Democrats, 32% are independents with the balance Republicans.

Zubin Jelveh, Bruce Kogut, and Suresh Naidu confirmed that bias: that the typical economist is a moderate Democrat. They found a 60–40 liberal conservative bias

Jelveh, Kogut, and Naidu also reminded, as many have before them that economics is the most politically diverse of academic professions. Sociology is a notorious left-wing echo chamber as an example. Their most likely view of Jeremy Corbyn is he is a bit of a Tory. Oddly enough, sociologists are the first to point the finger at economists for political bias.

Jelveh, Kogut, and Naidu correlated political donations of more than $200 in the Federal Elections Commission database with the language used in 18,000 journal articles back to the 1970s.

More interestingly, they correlated political bias with the estimates of quantitative effects such as the top tax rate and its impact on labour supply and investment:

We found a (significant) correlation when we compared the ideologies of authors with the numerical results in their papers. That means that a left-leaning economist is more likely to report numerical results aligned with liberal ideology (and the same is true for right-leaning economists and conservative ideology)… liberals think the fiscal multiplier is high, meaning the government can improve economic growth by increasing spending, while conservatives believe the multiplier is close to zero or negative.

They are not suggesting a rigging of the results. Economists tend to sort into the fields that suit their ideologies:

It’s more likely that these correlations are driven by research areas and the methodologies employed by economists of differing political stripe. Economics involves both methodological and normative judgments, and it is difficult to imagine that any social science could completely erase correlations between these two… macroeconomists and financial economists are more right-leaning on average while labour economists tend to be left-leaning. Economists at business schools, no matter their specialty, lean conservative. Apparently, there is “political sorting” in the academic labour market.

Before you start writing out the indictment that economic policy and the global financial crisis is the product of a vast left-wing conspiracy within the economics profession you should remember the wise words of George Stigler.

Stigler argued that ideas about economic reform needed to wait for a market. He contended that economists exert a minor and scarcely detectable independent influence on the societies in which they live. As is well known, Stigler in the 1970s toasted Milton Friedman at a dinner in his honour by saying:

Milton, if you hadn’t been born, it wouldn’t have made any difference.

Stigler said that if Richard Cobden had spoken only Yiddish, and with a stammer, and Robert Peel had been a narrow, stupid man, England would have still have repealed the Corn Laws in the 1840s. England would still have moved towards free trade in grain as its agricultural classes declined and its manufacturing and commercial classes grew in the 1840s onwards because of the industrial revolution.

As Stigler noted, when their day comes, economists seem to be the leaders of public opinion. But when the views of economists are not so congenial to the current requirements of special interest groups, these economists are left to be the writers of letters to the editor in provincial newspapers. These days, they would run an angry blog.

George Stigler on do-gooders

@DavidLeyonhjelm on deregulating the Australian labour market

https://twitter.com/DavidLeyonhjelm/status/644022781634449408

@DavidLeyonhjelm on the true history of the #NannyState @KevinHague @NZGreens

https://twitter.com/DavidLeyonhjelm/status/644019141318307841

How dangerous is nuclear energy?

@DavidLeyonhjelm the role of guns in successful suicide attempts

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/636546684063993856

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