The first @PaulKrugman explains European labour market regulation

image

Source: Unmitigated Gauls (1998).

Advertisement

The 1st @PaulKrugman on @GrantRobertson1’s #futureofwork?

image

Source:  Paul Krugman (1997) Unmitigated Gauls.

Mandatory severance pay by length of job tenure in the G7, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, Scandinavia, Greece and Spain

There are a wide differences across the OECD in mandatory severance pay in the event of a layoff.

image

Source: Labor Market Regulation – Doing Business – World Bank Group.

Severance pay makes it more expensive to fire and therefore more expensive to hire. This means fewer job vacancies will be created but they will last longer.

The presence of mandatory severance pay  could increase or reduce the unemployment rate but unemployment durations will increase because it takes longer to find a suitable job match among the fewer available vacancies.

Mandating severance pay does not make the job match inherently more profitable. It just redistributes some of the surplus from the job match to the end when it is terminated.

Employers and jobseekers may agree to severance pay where investments in firm specific and job specific human capital for the job is profitable.

Severance pay in these circumstances gives the employer and more reasons to invest in specific human capital. The promise to pay severance pay will make the employer hesitate to lay them off. The employer will instead retain them over a slack period or redeploy them within the company rather than pay them out. This pre-commitment encourages investment in  firm specific and job specific human capital by both sides more secure, which makes the job match more profitable overall for both sides.

Of course, if it was possible to negotiate completely around severance pay mandated by law, there would be no effects on hiring, firing and unemployment durations. All it would mean is take-home pay would be less but in the event of a layoff, these employees would get that this wage reduction back as a lump sum.

#TPPANoWay sovereignty objections apply equally to @ILO conventions

New Zealand has signed and ratified dozens of International Labour Organisation Conventions dating back to 1921. They all fetter the sovereignty of New Zealand. As a member of the ILO, New Zealand is required to report on its application of ILO Conventions.

That limitation on the sovereignty of New Zealand is no more and no less than in an international trade agreement. New Zealand can renounce an international trade agreement and has renounced nine International Labour Organisation conventions.

Jane Kelsey makes the following points about the legal implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement:

The 30 chapter Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) constrains domestic law and policy at central government level, and in places by local government and SOEs, in diverse areas beyond traditional aspects of international trade.

…The TPP provides cumulative opportunities for foreign states and corporations to influence domestic decisions which may be burdensome and intrusive.

The exact same objections apply to the ILO conventions. The union movement does not hesitate to argue that the democratic process in New Zealand should be overridden because the proposal at hand purportedly conflicts with an ILO convention.

For example, when the government was choosing to deregulate collective bargaining, the sovereignty of Parliament was questioned because of an ILO convention. Helen Kelly, CTU President said:

in Parliament on 4 June, the Minister was asked if he agreed with advice from officials that the ability for employers to opt out of multi-employer bargaining may breach our obligations under ILO Convention 98 on the right to organise and collective bargaining.

…There is no point attending such an important UN ILO conference at the time your Government is being advised it is breaching its undertakings to that very organisation…

The CTU President also referred to the regulatory impact statement prepared for that collective bargaining legislation:

The paper also points out that these changes open NZ up to international examination by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for non-compliance with Convention 98 – on the Right to Organise and Collectively Bargain, which New Zealand has signed up to.

Helen Kelly says “at least four of the proposals are deemed to be inconsistent with our international obligations, and two of them are classified as uncertain. Why the Government wants law changes that damage our international obligations is unclear.”

Council of Trade Unions submissions to minimum wage reviews have at least a dozen references to ILO conventions and the requirement to honour their provisions.


Posner and Goldsmith rightly argue that international law is a product of states pursuing their interests on the international stage. It does not induce states to comply contrary to their interests. The possibilities for what it can achieve are limited.

Government sign-up to various international agreements depending on their political priorities. You cannot complain that governments that you did not vote do what government you voted for also did, which was sign up to international agreements that suited their political agendas. The solution is to work harder to win the next general election.

As for opposing trade agreements on sovereignty grounds, it is rank hypocrisy for the union movement to do so given the number of times it cites international labour agreements when it suits them and seeks their inclusion in trade agreements to raise labour costs in developing countries.

US, Danish and NZ long-term male unemployment @grantrobertson1 @nzlabour

https://twitter.com/KiwiLiveNews/status/688503382181449728

My search for an example of how Danish flexicurity might have an advantage over the status quo in the New Zealand labour market is still to yield results. Danish flexicurity is no better than New Zealand and often worse in keeping long-term male unemployment rates down as the charts below show. The flexicurity model combines flexible hiring and firing with a generous social safety net and an extensive system of activation policies for the unemployed.

image

Data extracted on 18 Jan 2016 21:55 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

The charts above and below do show is that a more generous social safety net for the unemployed introduced with the onset of the Great Recession in the USA was followed by a sharp increase in the incidence of long-term unemployment.

image

Data extracted on 18 Jan 2016 21:55 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

Danish, NZ, UK & US statutory protections against layoffs @grantrobertson1@nzlabour

[Tweet https://twitter.com/KiwiLiveNews/status/688503382181449728 ]

Denmark is all the go in the New Zealand Labour Party as a model for labour market flexibility despite the fact that it is much more heavily regulated than either New Zealand or the USA.

image

Source: OECD Indicators of Employment Protection – OECD.

Eurosclerosis illustrated in the labour market

Source: Linda Regber.

@DavidLeyonhjelm on deregulating the Australian labour market

https://twitter.com/DavidLeyonhjelm/status/644022781634449408

More than 15% of unemployed Europeans haven’t had a job for more than four years

Incidence of long-term unemployment in the PIGS since 1983

The boom that preceded the bust in the Greek economy did nothing for the rate of long-term unemployment among Greeks. Long-term unemployment had been pretty stable prior to the economic boom after joining the euro currency union.

image

Source: OECD StatExtract.

Nothing much happened to long-term unemployment in Italy or Portugal in recent decades. Spanish long-term unemployment fell in line with the economic boom in Spain over the 1980s and 1990s up until the global financial crisis.

Italian unemployment incidence by duration since 1983

Unemployment of more than a year was slowly tapering down in Italy before the global financial crisis, but ever so slowly.

image

Source: OECD StatExtract.

Unemployment rates and the minimum wage in the European Union

French unemployment incidence by duration since 1983

Nothing really changes in France recently unemployment duration. Italian labour market is notorious for having very low inflows and outflows from employment and unemployment.

image

Source: OECD StatExtract.

Unemployment rates across the OECD member countries

Who gains and who loses from employment protection laws over the business cycle?

banerji chart 2

banerji chart 1

HT: IMF

Previous Older Entries

Great Books Guy

Reading The Classics

Science Matters

Reading between the lines, and underneath the hype.

Peter Winsley

Economics, and such stuff as dreams are made on

A Venerable Puzzle

"The British constitution has always been puzzling, and always will be." --Queen Elizabeth II

Real Time with Bill Maher Blog

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Climate Audit

by Steve McIntyre

New Historical Express

(Formerly Hatful of History)

Uneasy Money

Commentary on monetary policy in the spirit of R. G. Hawtrey

The Market Monetarist

Markets Matter, Money Matters...

The Antiplanner

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Pedestrian Observations

For Walkability and Good Transit, and Against Boondoggles and Pollution

Bet On It

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Movie Nation

Roger Moore's film criticism, against the grain since 1984.

~

Franck Portier's professional page

Anti-Dismal

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Bowalley Road

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

History of Sorts

WORLD WAR II, EIGHTIES, MUSIC, HISTORY, HOLOCAUST

Tudor Chronicles

News, reviews and talk all about the Tudors

Karl du Fresne

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

@STILLTish. Gender Abolition

Examining Gender Identity ideology and its impact on Women's Sex based rights and Gay Rights. Exploring how this has taken such firm root in Western societies (Cognitive & Regulatory Capture).

Offsetting Behaviour

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

JONATHAN TURLEY

Res ipsa loquitur - The thing itself speaks

Conversable Economist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

The Victorian Commons

Researching the House of Commons, 1832-1868

Coyote Blog

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

The History of Parliament

Blogging on parliament, politics and people, from the History of Parliament

Books & Boots

reflections on books and art

Legal History Miscellany

Posts on the History of Law, Crime, and Justice

Sex, Drugs and Economics

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

FREEcology

Libertarian environmentalism

Doc's Books

A window into Doc Freiberger's library

Media Myth Alert

Calling out media myths

European Royal History

The History of the Emperors, Kings & Queens of Europe

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Cutting edge science you can dice with

Marginal REVOLUTION

Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

The Risk-Monger

Let's examine hard decisions!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.

STOP THESE THINGS

The truth about the great wind power fraud

Trust, yet verify

Searching for the missing pieces of climate change communication

Ideas

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

%d bloggers like this: