Utopia, you are standing in it!

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

I do admire the way in which the USA has been able to have a steadily falling equilibrium unemployment rate since 1984 through thick and thin. The Great Recession had no impact on the US equilibrium unemployment rate. Not only has the largest member been able to do this, the OECD host country (red squares) …

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More than 15% of unemployed Europeans haven’t had a job for more than four years econ.st/1ghznmr http://t.co/NlLXnKPYRG— The Economist (@TheEconomist) August 10, 2015

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The boom that preceded the bust in the Greek economy did nothing for the rate of long-term unemployment among Greeks. Long-term unemployment had been pretty stable prior to the economic boom after joining the euro currency union. Source: OECD StatExtract. Nothing much happened to long-term unemployment in Italy or Portugal in recent decades. Spanish long-term …

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As I recall, most unemployed have been unemployed longer than 12 months in Sweden have to go on a labour market program. When they returned to unemployment after the program, the clock starts again. They are deemed to be freshly unemployed rather than adding to the previous spell with an interlude on a make work …

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As the British labour market and long-term unemployment was starting to get something like that in the USA, the USA started to have unemployment it was more like the European labour markets in terms of the number of long-term unemployed. Nothing much happened in Germany and France. Source: OECD StatExtract.

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Unemployment of more than a year was slowly tapering down in Italy before the global financial crisis, but ever so slowly. Source: OECD StatExtract.

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German long term unemployment has been pretty stable albeit with an up-and-down after German unification. There is also a fall in long-term unemployment after some labour market reforms around 2005. Source: OECD StatExtract.

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There has been bit of a wild ride in long-term unemployment in New Zealand. Long-term unemployment – longer than one year – ranging from just over 8% of unemployment in 1986 to nearly 40% in 1992 then down to 5% in 2008. Clearly the duration of unemployment in New Zealand is highly sensitive to the …

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In contrast to the USA, there is been a long-term decline in long-term unemployment, that is unemployment of more than a year, in the British economy over the 1990s. The situation then stabilised and then increased after the global financial crisis. There is also a rather rapid fall in long-term unemployment in the mid-1980s as …

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The Great Recession was the first recession in the USA in a good 40 to 50 years where the composition of employment changed by much. Even the big recession at the beginning of the 1980s did not do much to the composition of unemployment by duration in the USA. Source: OECD StatExtract. Those unemployed for …

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As with New Zealand, Australian long-term unemployment seems to go up and down quite a lot with recessions such as those in the early 1980s and early 1990s but not after the global financial crisis. Source: OECD StatExtract.

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Nothing really changes in France recently unemployment duration. Italian labour market is notorious for having very low inflows and outflows from employment and unemployment. Source: OECD StatExtract.

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Figure 1 shows large contrasts in time path of equilibrium unemployment rates. For example, French and Italian equilibrium unemployment rates haven’t changed much since about 1986. Figure 1: equilibrium unemployment rates, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland and Spain, 1968 – 2016 Source: OECD Economic Outlook June 2015 via OECD StatExtract.. Figure 1 also shows some fortuitous …

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Figure 1 suggests a lot more structural change in the Canadian and British labour market in the 1970s and 1980s. Figure 1: equilibrium unemployment rates, Canada, USA and UK, 1962 – 2016 Source: OECD Economic Outlook June 2015 via OECD StatExtract. Nothing much at all seems to have happened to the equilibrium unemployment rate in …

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77% more long-term unemployed people than before the crisis – We need them back in work! bit.ly/1JTTzYm #Jobs http://t.co/EFRGclFVms— OECD Social (@OECD_Social) July 10, 2015 Hysteresis in practice, Delong-Summers Variety @delong @LHSummers http://t.co/urqxQBi6NE— Roger E. A. Farmer (@farmerrf) July 23, 2015

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