Bill Gates “pre-reviewed” Piketty years ago

Bill Gates once said:

You take away the top 20 employees of Microsoft, we’ll just be an ordinary company. Top employees are what makes us.

File:Dts news bill gates wikipedia.JPG

via Gary Becker on Human Capital | Atanu Dey On India’s Development.

9 Wonderful French Expressions That Have No Good English Equivalent | Business Insider

Saloperie

The act of a jack-arse.

Mise en abyme

This is the word for when you’re standing between two mirrors and you see an infinite regression of yourself. It’s also commonly used to describe self-referential works in a novel or play.

Trouvaille

Something awesome that was discovered by chance or stumbled upon.

Décomplexé

Pure, sure of oneself, lacking neurotic hangups or socio-cultural pressures.

Droit a l’oubli

“Right to oblivion.” There are now guidelines, signed in 2010, applying to search engines that automatically cache pages on social media — basically, they’re not really allowed to. “We don’t hate what the Internet stands for — there’s a lot of material online that should be kept. But in certain cases, we’d prefer to have the ability to erase them,” Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, who put together the guidelines (and who just lost hte race for mayor in Paris), said upon signing the guidelines.

Diaboliser

To impugn with bad intentions — to suggest that someone or something is inherently bad. Often used in discussing politics.

Dépayser

To feel displaced from one’s native land or familiar routine.

Déontologie

An informal but widely set of rules for a profession. Also a philosophical concept denoting a set of actions taken out of duty, rather than consequence.

Laïcité

France’s aggressive form of separation between church and state. The country would never allow a voting booth to be placed in a church, for instance, even if it would be the most expedient means of holding an election in a small town.

via 9 Wonderful French Expressions That Have No Good English Equivalent | Business Insider.

Why I am not reviewing Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century – updated again

It’s 700 pages long and goes on about Marx. Some people were watching the other channel when the Berlin Wall fell.

thomas-piketty-economist-will-hutton

My 1 o’clock lecture at ANU in 1990 was next to a room rented out ironically from 12 to 1 to the Campus Trots and then to the Campus Christians for an hour of prayer to another saviour.

The Twitter summary of Piketty is this:

Karl Marx wasn’t wrong, just early. Pretty much. Sorry, capitalism. #inequalityforevah

The only Marxist I bother with is Jon Elster. He is a leading proponent of Analytical Marxism and one of the last polymaths. Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster’s books one:

would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster’s purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen experts.

All of Elster’s books and writings are worth reading, including

  • Ulysses and the Sirens (1979);
  • Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality (1983);
  • Making Sense of Marx (1985); and
  • An Introduction to Karl Marx (1986).

As Jon Elster noted:

Marxian economics is, with a few exceptions, intellectually dead

and Marx’s labour theory of value is:

useless at best, harmful and misleading at its not infrequent worst.

To go on with my non-review, I will quote Tyler Cowen:

The crude seven-word version of Piketty’s argument is “rates of return on capital won’t diminish.”

Piketty’s reasons why rates of return on capital won’t diminish are fairly specific and restricted to only a small share of capital.

.. In any case this is pure speculation and Piketty’s entire argument depends upon it.

… Piketty converts the entrepreneur into the rentier.

To the extent capital reaps high returns, it is by assuming risk…

Yet the concept of risk hardly plays a role in the major arguments of this book.

Once you introduce risk, the long-run fate of capital returns again becomes far from certain.

In fact the entire book ought to be about risk but instead we get the rentier…

Overall, the main argument is based on two (false) claims.

First, that capital returns will be high and non-diminishing, relative to other factors.

Second, that this can happen without significant increases in real wages.

Piketty’s advocacy of a top marginal income tax rate of 80% and a an international treaty for a wealth tax are wildly impractical and destructive of economic growth and entrepreneurship. His advocacy of 60% marginal tax rates on incomes above $200,000 strike at the heart of the professional and managerial occupations that are the backbone of day-to-day capitalism. Piketty’s wealth tax would tax the homes and the retirement savings of the ordinary middle class:

  • wealth below 200,000 euros be taxed at a rate of 0.1 percent,
  • wealth between 200,000 and one million euros at 0.5 percent,
  • wealth between one million and five million euros at 1.0 percent, and
  • wealth above five million euros at 2.0 percent.

Piketty’s reason for these high top tax rates is not to bring in more revenue or to redistribute wealth to poor and the downtrodden but simply “to put an end to such incomes.” Harsanyi argues that:

Like many progressives, Piketty doesn’t really believe that most people deserve their wealth anyway, so confiscating it presents no real moral dilemma.

He also argues that we can measure a person’s productivity and the value of a worker (namely, low-skilled labourers) while arguing that other groups of workers (namely, the kind of people he doesn’t admire) are bequeathed undeserved, “arbitrary” salaries. What tangible benefit does a stockbroker or a kulak or an explanatory journalist offer society, after all?

This takes me back to Jon Elster who had this to say on socialism:

Optimism and wishful thinking have been features of socialist thought from its inception.

In Marx, for instance, two main premises appear to be that whatever is desirable is possible, and that whatever is desirable and possible is inevitable.

…It has become clear that classical socialism massively underestimated the importance of economic incentives.

Greg Mankiw is less harsh, but still to the point:

Like President Obama and others on the left, Piketty wants to spread the wealth around.

Another philosophical viewpoint is that it is the government’s job to enforce rules such as contracts and property rights and promote opportunity rather than to achieve a particular distribution of economic outcomes.

No amount of economic history will tell you that John Rawls (and Thomas Piketty) offers a better political philosophy than Robert Nozick (and Milton Friedman).

John Rawls was actually very much alive to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society.

Unequal incomes might turn out to be to the advantage of everyone. Work effort and entrepreneurial alertness respond to incentives; incentives channel people into the occupations and jobs where they produce more.

Rawls lent qualified support to the idea of a flat-rate consumption tax because these taxes:

impose a levy according to how much a person takes out of the common store of goods and not according to how much he contributes.

A simple way to have a progressive consumption tax is to exempt all savings from taxation.

With his emphasis on fair distributions of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left. Left-wing thinkers then started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and his tolerance of large discrepancies in income and wealth.

It’s impossible to make the workers better off by taxing capital. The optimal rate of tax on income from capital is zero. This is why the Mirrlees Review of the UK taxation system argued for zero taxation of the returns to capital.

Robert Lucas estimated in 1990 that eliminating all taxes on income from capital would increase the U.S. capital stock by about 35% and consumption by 7%.

Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Ashwin Kambhampati, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (2014) found that eliminating the corporate income tax completely would raise the U.S. capital stock (machines and buildings) by 23%, output by 8% and the real wages of unskilled and skilled workers each by 12%.

Book reviews serve the same purpose as film reviews. They are filters for our time. Do you agree?

I made a time management decision to not read a long book plenty of others reviewed and some even understood.

As for the growing income inequality, there is a long literature dating back 25-years arguing that skill-biased technological change is increasing the returns to investing in education as Gary Becker blogged in 2011:

Earnings inequality in the United States and many other countries has increased greatly since the late 1970s, due in large measure to globalization and technological progress that raised the productivity of more educated and more skilled individuals.

While the average American college graduate earned about a 40% premium over the average high school graduate in 1980, this premium increased to over 70% in 2000.

The good side of this higher education-based earnings inequality is that it induced more young men, and especially more young women, to go to and finish college.

The bad side is that many sufficiently able children could not take advantage of the greater returns from a college education because their parents did not prepare them to perform well in school, or they went to bad schools, or they lacked the financing to attend college.

As a result, the incomes of high school dropouts and of many high school graduates stagnated while incomes boomed for many persons who graduated college, and even more so for those with post graduate education.

There is nothing new under the sun.

Chart of the day: In 2013, America was more than twice as energy efficient compared to 1970 when Earth Day started | AEIdeas

gdp-600x430

Chart of the day: In 2013, America was more than twice as energy efficient compared to 1970 when Earth Day started | AEIdeas.

EARTH DAY: SPIRITUALLY UPLIFTING, INTELLECTUALLY DEBASED by Julian L. Simon

During the first great Earth Week in 1970 there was panic.

The public’s outlook for the planet was unrelievedly gloomy.

The doom saying environmentalists – of whom the dominant figure was Paul Ehrlich – raised the alarm: The oceans and the Great Lakes were dying; impending great famines would be seen on television starting in 1975; the death rate would  quickly increase due to pollution; and rising prices of increasingly-scarce raw materials would lead to a reversal in the past centuries’ progress in the standard of living.

… On average, people throughout the world  have been living longer and eating better than ever before.

Fewer people die of famine nowadays than in earlier centuries.

The real prices of food and of every other raw material are lower now than in earlier decades and centuries, indicating a trend of increased natural-resource availability rather than increased scarcity.

The major air and water pollutions in the advanced countries have been lessening rather than worsening.

Julian L. Simon

Via Julian Simon memorial site

HT: The Climate Counsel

Institutional Economics: Robert Shiller, Ex-Ante and Ex-Post

In his 2009 book with George Ackerlof, Robert Shiller, who shared a Nobel  Prize in economics for his work developing behavioural finance wrote:

there has been one way, at least in the past, in which almost everyone could become at least moderately rich

… Invest it for the long term in the stock market, where the rate of return after adjustment for inflation has been 7% per year’

Shiller’s ex-post observations on stock market returns in 2009 do not sit well with his ex-ante prediction in 1996:

long run investors should stay out of the market for the next decade.

via Institutional Economics: ‘Light Reading It’s Not’ – Forbes.

The joint advice of both the efficient market advocates such as Eugene Fama and the behavioural finance theorists on how to manage your retirement and other long-term savings are the same:

Buy and hold. Diversify. Put your money in index funds.

Pay attention to the one thing you can control–costs–and keep them as low as possible.

Index-linked or passive investment funds minimise their trading of shares and do not hire research departments so their costs and fees are far lower than investments funds that trade actively in the market trying to beat the market.

About 97% of these active funds fail to beat the market. The rest may just have been lucky.

  • The average actively managed investment must underperform the indexed investment when all costs are deducted.
  • The actively managed investments that beat the indexed investments this year fail to consistently beat the index in the future.

Investors can win higher returns by shouldering more risk and all that entails, and the reward for bearing risk vary over time and across assets.

Entrepreneurship and the Market Process with Israel Kirzner

Tom Sargent’s 12 lessons from economics for public policy

Tom Sargent is a life-long Democrat who is old enough to remember when Democrats were fiscal conservatives.

At a graduation speech at Berkeley, Sargent listed these lessons:

    1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible.
    2. Individuals and communities face trade-offs.
    3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts, and their preferences than you do.
    4. Everyone responds to incentives, including people you want to help. That is why social safety nets don’t always end up working as intended.
    5. There are trade-offs between equality and efficiency.
    6. In an equilibrium of a game or an economy, people are satisfied with their choices. That is why it is difficult for well-meaning outsiders to change things for better or worse.
    7. In the future, you too will respond to incentives. That is why there are some promises that you’d like to make but can’t. No one will believe those promises because they know that later it will not be in your interest to deliver. The lesson here is this: before you make a promise, think about whether you will want to keep it if and when your circumstances change. This is how you earn a reputation.
    8. Governments and voters respond to incentives too. That is why governments sometimes default on loans and other promises that they have made.
    9. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. That is what national government debts and the U.S. social security system do (but not the social security system of Singapore).
    10. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation.
    11. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government transfers (especially transfers to themselves).
    12. Because market prices aggregate traders’ information, it is difficult to forecast stock prices and interest rates and exchange rates

Experts Are at a Loss on Investing

Harry M. Markowitz won the Nobel Prize in economics as the father of “modern portfolio theory,” the idea that people shouldn’t put all of their eggs in one basket, but should diversify their investments.

Markowitz split most of his his own retirement investments down the middle, put half in a stock fund and the other half in a conservative, low-interest investment.

Markowitz invested more wisely than some fellow Nobelists who have significant portions of their nest eggs in money market accounts, some of the lowest-returning investment vehicles available.

via Experts Are at a Loss on Investing – Los Angeles Times.

The rationality postulate is under attack from the other people are stupid fallacy-updated

The rationality postulate is under attack from the other people are stupid fallacy: not you, not me, not present company, of course, but the nameless them over there; the perpetually baffled, every man jack of them.

These no-hopers are deemed competent to vote and DRIVE CARS, but they cannot get their head around a credit card. How the them over there find their way to work every morning must be a mystery to behavioural economists. One summary of behavioural labour economics is this:

The key empirical findings from field research in behavioural economics imply that individuals can make systematic errors or be put off by complexity, that they procrastinate, and that they hold non-standard preferences and non-standard beliefs

I found the chapter in Tullock and McKenzie’s book on token economies in mental hospitals to be most enlightening.

The tokens were for spending money at the hospital canteen and trips to town and other privileges. They were earned by keeping you and your area clean and helping out with chores.

The first token economies were for chronic, treatment-resistant psychotic inpatients.

In 1977, a major study, still considered a landmark, successfully showed the superiority of a token economy compared to the standard treatments. Despite this success, token economies disappeared from the 1980s on.

Experiments which would now be unethical showed that the occupational choices and labour supply of certified lunatics responded to incentives in the normal, predictable way.

For example, tokens were withdrawn for helping clean halls and common areas. The changes in occupational choice and reductions in labour supply was immediate and as predicted by standard economics.

Some patients would steal the tokens for other patients, so the token individually marked, and the thefts almost stopped. Crime must pay even for criminally insane inpatients.

Kagel reported that:

The results have not varied with any identifiable trait or characteristic of the subjects of the token economy – age, IQ, educational level, length of hospitalization, or type of diagnosis.

Behavioural economics is an excellent example of how engaging in John S. Mill’s truth that engaging with people who are partly or totally wrong sharpens your arguments, improves their presentation and deepens your analysis.

People have a better understanding of rationality such as through the work of Vernon Smith on ecological and constructivist rationality and of how people deal with human frailties and correct error through specialisation, exchange and learning.

  • George Stigler in his Existence of X-inefficiency paper opposed attributing behaviour to errors because error can explain everything so it explains nothing until we have a theory of error.
  • Kirzner in “XInefficiency, Error and the Scope for Entrepreneurship” wrote that error is pervasive in economic processes. Rational Misesian human actors are human enough to err.

What is inefficient about the world, said Kirzner, is at each instant, an opportunity for improvements, in one way or another and is yet simply not yet noticed. The lure of pure entrepreneurial profits harnesses the systematic elimination of errors and points the way to the market generated institutions necessary for steady social improvements to emerge. Brand names are an obvious example of an institution to overcome doubts about product quality. Middle-men and brokers specialise in performing much of the calculation burdens in their markets.

Many still compare real-world marketplaces to idealised regulation overseen by bureaucrats free of the very biases they are nudging us along to overcome. There are real constraints that limit the options available to fix what are seen as problems to be solved.

Vernon Smith when asked about behavioural economics, wondered how so cognitively flawed a creature made it out of the caves. Vernon Smith argued that the answer had a lot to do with the institutions that emerged to overcome human limitations:

Markets are about recognizing that information is dispersed in all social systems and that the problem of society is to find, devise, and discover institutions that incentivize and enable people to make the right decisions without anyone having to tell them what to do.

Smith and Hayek both posit that market institutions rather than individuals bear the primary cognitive burden in coordinating economic activity. To quote Vernon Smith:

What we learn from experiments is that any group of people can walk into a room, be incentivized with a well-defined private economic environment, have the rules of the oral double auction explained to them for the first time, and they can make a market that usually converges to a competitive equilibrium, and is 100 per cent efficient—they maximize the gains from exchange—within two or three repetitions of a trading period.

Yet knowledge is dispersed, with no participant informed of market supply and demand, or even understanding what that means.

This strikingly demonstrates what Adam Smith called ”a certain propensity in human nature . . . to truck, barter, and exchange one thing for another”

These double oral auctions converged to the competitive price even with as few as three or four sellers with neither the buyers nor sellers knowing anything of the values or costs of others in the market. Price-taking behaviour was not necessary to reach these competitive outcomes.

Behavioural economics is a clumsy way of discussing the pervasiveness of errors because insufficient attention is paid to decentralised, emergent market processes that correct them, often long ago.

What Have We Learned from the Collapse of Communism? by Peter Boettke

the collapse of Communism has taught political economists several things:

first, that economic policy is always nested within a set of institutions—that there are economic/financial, political/legal, and social/cultural issues, which all must be taken into account;

second, that leadership matters throughout the transition process;

and third, that historical contingency can either work in your favour or cut against the successful transition.

And I would add a fourth one: that political power corrupts even the most informed and idealistic of individuals, such that you cannot count on ideological alignment to win the day. You have instead a small window of opportunity in which ideological alignment can be utilized to establish institutions that make it difficult for even bad men to do much harm.

In other words, the goal of our political/legal institutions should not be to ensure that the best and the brightest can govern, but instead that if the worst get in power, they can do little damage. This is the idea of a “robust political economy”.

Steve Jobs and the Twitter Left

We saw the movie Jobs:

  • I could not work out what Steve Jobs actually achieved on his own by the time the film ended in about 2001.
  • Jobs was portrayed as a thoroughly unlikable fellow who was a terrible CEO who deserved to be fired in the mid-1980s.
  • If he had been hit by a bus in 2000, no one would remember him now. I read a biography of Jobs around that time.

By 2012, Jobs had been labelled “Greatest entrepreneur of our time”, “brilliant, visionary, inspiring”, and “the quintessential entrepreneur of our generation” and CEO of the decade.

My estimations of Jobs did go up later when I found out that after resuming control of Apple in 1997, Jobs eliminated all corporate philanthropy programmes. Jobs said he felt that expanding Apple would do more good than giving money to charity. This is a great point by him about the role of economic progress in abolishing poverty. There is no public record of Jobs giving money to charity apart from product RED.


Good to see that having a driven personality can still get you a pass on your membership of the top 0.1% of income earners in the eyes of the Twitter Left or should it be the IPhone Left.

The Girl Scouts, entrepreneurial alertness and the theory of the firm

Girl Scouts (the firm) allow entrepreneurship from within. This girl was alert enough to camp outside of a marijuana dispensary.

via Econ Point of View | one man’s attempt to understand human action through the economic point(s) of view.

The World Bank Ignores How Capitalism Can Help Us to Adapt to Climate Change!

Matt Kahn at Environmental and Urban Economics.

Profit maximisation gets no respect

Who would own up to personal greed and selfishness? But who sends a tip in with their taxes?

George Stigler said that if you ask business owners if they maximise profits, they say no, no, no. They are just there to provide employment, a service for their customers, and then they put a small amount aside for the education of their children.

Stigler then said that if you asked them if they lowered their prices, would they increase their profits, the answer is invariably no.

Stigler then said that if you asked them if they raised their prices, would they increase their profits, the answer is invariably no.

Stigler then said that if you asked them if they have in the last 12-months substituted some other objective for profit, they throw you out of their office.

What people do is far more important than what they say and what they say motivated them.

Alchian pointed out the evolutionary struggle for survival in the face of market competition ensured that only the profit maximising firms survived:

  • Realised profits, not maximum profits, are the marks of success and viability in any market. It does not matter through what process of reasoning or motivation that business success is achieved.
  • Realised profit is the criterion by which the market process selects survivors.
  • Positive profits accrue to those who are better than their competitors, even if the participants are ignorant, intelligent, skilful, etc. These lesser rivals will exhaust their retained earnings and fail to attract further investor support.
  • As in a race, the prize goes to the relatively fastest ‘even if all the competitors loaf.’
  • The firms which quickly imitate more successful firms increase their chances of survival. The firms that fail to adapt, or do so slowly, risk a greater likelihood of failure.
  • The relatively fastest in this evolutionary process of learning, adaptation and imitation will, in fact, be the profit maximisers and market selection will lead to the survival only of these profit maximising firms.

These surviving firms may not know why they are successful, but they have survived and will keep surviving until overtaken by a better rival. All business needs to know is a practice is successful. The reason for its success is less important.

Great store is placed in industry economics on how firms in direct competition in the same market producing even rather standard products such as cement can have far greater measured productivity than others. Some firms produce half as much output from the same measured inputs as their market rivals and still survive in competition (Syverson 2011).

As is too common, the conclusion is there is something wrong with the firms in these markets rather than with the analysis that fails to understand these puzzlingly large gaps in measured productivity.

Few ask the obvious question, which is how do these firms survive if they are so inferior to the market leaders. The important fact is they do survive. They must be doing something right for their customers that the productivity statistics miss.

One method of organising production and supplying to the market will supplant another when it can supply at a lower price (Marshall 1920, Stigler 1958). Gary Becker (1962) argued that firms cannot survive for long in the market with inferior product and production methods regardless of what their motives are. They will not cover their costs.

The more efficient sized firms are the firm sizes that are currently expanding their market shares in the face of competition; the less efficient sized firms are those that are currently losing market share (Stigler 1958; Alchian 1950; Demsetz 1973, 1976). Business vitality and capacity for growth and innovation are only weakly related to cost conditions and often depends on many factors that are subtle and difficult to observe (Stigler 1958, 1987).

An example is in Adam Smith’s study of religion. One thing he noticed was that religious sects with strict codes of honesty and intense mutual monitoring by co-congregants for the slightest moral lapses proliferated in cities. Many successful businessmen belonged to these strict religions. These highly religious businessmen were successful in their businesses because they were looked upon by the public as reliable trading partners in a time of weak law enforcement. These businessmen did not know that this was profit maximising but the businessmen with religious backgrounds slowly gained market share over rival firms that had less efficient ways of communicating both their reliability and that their personal honesty was under daily scrutiny.

Ethnic minorities are advantaged in the same way in business. Because of their extensive social interactions with each other because of their language or religious practices and inter-marriage, the costs of bad business behaviours are much higher due to the risk of social ostracism by everyone you know.  This greater trustworthiness gives them a cost advantage in the marketplace even though they may be unaware of its source.

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