Why do companies pay dividends?

It is obvious that businesses find dividends sensible to pay because otherwise they will face disquiet from investors. Managers believe that higher dividends mean higher share prices.

Economists finds dividends to be a mysterious (Easterbrook 1984). Miller and Modigliani (1958) declared dividends to be irrelevant because investors can homebrew their own dividends by selling shares or borrowing against their share portfolios.

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Modigliani (1980, p. xiii) explains the Miller and Modigliani Theorem as follows:

… with well-functioning markets (and neutral taxes) and rational investors, who can ‘undo’ the corporate financial structure by holding positive or negative amounts of debt, the market value of the firm – debt plus equity – depends only on the income stream generated by its assets.

It follows, in particular, that the value of the firm should not be affected by the share of debt in its financial structure or by what will be done with the returns – paid out as dividends or reinvested (profitably).

Warren Buffett has never paid a dividend. He only agreed to a stock split. Shareholders pressed him to do so. They wanted to bequeath their shares to children without having to sell them.

What is even more mysterious is a simultaneous existence of dividends and the raising of new capital, either through the share market or from borrowing (Easterbrook 1984).

Dividends are costly and ubiquitous so something causes them. Even if investors were irrational, dividends would go away if there cost exceeds their benefits.

If dividends were a bad idea, firms that pay few dividends would prosper relative to others; investors who figure out the truth would also prosper relative to others and before long dividends will be features of failing firms (Easterbrook 1984).

Dividends exist because they influence the firms financing policies. Dividends dissipate free cash and thereby induce the firm to float new shares and borrow. If the firm is constantly in the market for new capital, it must constantly prove the value of the investment to the market (Easterbrook 1984).

The interests and incentives of managers and shareholders frequently conflict over the optimal size of the firm and paying free cash flows as dividends. Jensen (1986) defines free cash flow as follows:

Free cash flow is cash flow in excess of that required to fund all of a firm’s projects that have positive net present values when discounted at the relevant cost of capital. Such free cash flow must be paid out to shareholders if the firm is to be efficient and to maximize value for shareholders (Jensen 1986, p. 323).

The problem is how to motivate managers to pay out this cash rather than invested at below the cost of the capital. By issuing debt, managers bind themselves to pay out future cash flows in a way that a future dividend policy cannot.

Creditors can take the firm into bankruptcy court if they do not repay. Investors and bankers play an important role in monitoring the firm and its proposed projects.

The control function of debt is more important in organisations with large cash flows but low growth prospects. Investors in the share market are alert to the control function of debt. Most leverage increasing transactions result in positive increases in share prices while most transactions that reduce leverage results in share price falls (Jensen 1986).

There is nothing new about using high debt leverage ratios to create greater business value through limiting managerial discretion in focusing entrepreneurial attention on the bottom line.

One of the driving forces behind management leverage buyouts in the 1980s was that they borrowed to take over a company to run it better. The high levels of debt in management buyouts made sure that there was no incentives to tolerate waste or inefficiency or underperforming divisions or product lines of the firm. Any slack with the organisation would very quickly be punished perhaps in bankruptcy. Heavy debt ratios focused the attention of managers and boards of directors.

New debt puts managers under additional scrutiny of a range of bankers and the share market, which is the principal reason for keeping firms constantly in the market for capital. Managers of firms that do not have to go into the market repeatedly and regularly for new capital have more discretion to behave in their own interest rather than those of investors (Easterbrook 1984). The function of dividends is to keep firms in the capital market.

Managers of firms with unused borrowing power and large free cash flows are more like to undertake expansions that are less profitable. The burst of takeovers and leverage buyouts in the 1980s were very much driven by opportunities to profit from reducing corporate slack and downsizing flabby corporate headquarters of large publicly listed companies (Jensen 1986).

Dividends reduce the resources under managers’ control and subjecting them to the monitoring by the capital markets that occurs when a firm must obtain new capital. Financing projects internally avoids this monitoring and the possibility that funds will be unavailable or available only at high explicit prices. Project finance replicates the disciplinary effect of paying regular dividends by borrowing a huge amount at the start of the project. High debt prevents management wasting resources on low return projects.

Dividends are paid by companies to tie the hands of management.  Dividends make sure that there is less free cash about for them to spend on projects at their own discretion. When a major expansion must be undertaken, the management of a company must either go to the share market or banks for it to go forward. This means multiple set of decision-makers agree that it is a worthwhile project and provide funding.

The art of business is identifying assets in low-valued uses and devising ways to profitably move them into higher values uses (Froeb and McCann 2008). Wealth is created when entrepreneurs move assets to higher-valued uses.

Froeb and McCann (2008) argued that mistakes are made – business opportunities are missed – for one of two reasons:

1. A lack of information; or
2. Bad incentives.

Rational, self-interested actors err because either they do not have enough information to make better decisions, or they lack incentives to make the best use of information they already have.

Froeb and McCann (2008) argued that three questions arise about all business problems:

1. Who is making the bad decision?
2. Does the decision maker have enough information to make a good decision?
3. Does the decision maker have the incentives to make a good decision?

For Froeb and McCann (2008), the answers to these questions immediately suggest ways to fix them:

1. Let someone else make the decision;
2. Give more information to the decision maker; or
3. Change the decision makers’ incentives.

Dividends follow all three points in this matrix. Dividends include others in investment and expansion decisions of the company. These bankers or new share investors must be given more information on the merits of the new or enlarged project.

The project will not go ahead and any benefits to the careers of the executives championing it will not be forthcoming unless they can persuade these outside parties with plenty of other investment options of the merits of the project.

Dividend show that the market process as well alert to the risks of separating ownership from control. Counter strategies are developed to channel the efforts and align the interests of management teams towards those of investors and owners.

The ownership structure and dividend policies of firms arise out of the search for the capital structure that maximises profits. Different divisions of risk between creditors and shareholders and decision-making rights between owners, boards of directors and managers all affect the value and profitability of a firm. Dividends contribute to that search more profitable forms of organisation by restricting free cash flows in the hands of management.

Externalities: When Is a Potato Chip Not Just a Potato Chip? 

It takes three to have an externality.

Creative destruction in car industry market shares

Percentage of fixed and floating mortgages in New Zealand

I did not know so many people were on a fixed rate mortgage.  Labour is risking its economic credibility on regulating the rates for a minority of mortgages.

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Source: S8 Banks: Mortgage lending ($m) – Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Capped mortgages cannot be linked to the current official cash rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand because they are based on expected future interest rates over an up to 5 year span, not current interest rates.

An important motivation for going onto a floating rate is you can repay faster. Fixed rate mortgages have penalties for early repayment.

Source: Price Controls: Price Floors and Ceilings, Illustrated.

In consequence, price controls linking floating rate mortgages to the official cash rate of the Reserve Bank would benefit better off mortgagees expecting to repay quickly. A typical policy of the modern Labour Party.

New Zealand bank market shares in mortgage and other lending, 2015

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Source: G1 Summary information for locally incorporated banks – Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

New Zealand Post (incl. Kiwibank) dividends

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Source: New Zealand Treasury – data released under the Official Information Act.

Profit rates of New Zealand banks, 2015

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Source: G1 Summary information for locally incorporated banks – Reserve Bank of New Zealand

 ....

Downsizing, morale & productivity @SueMoroney @GreenCatherine #livingwage

It comes as a surprise to living wage advocates that entrepreneurs are so alert to the impact of downsizing and firm closures on employee morale that they keep these a secret to the last possible minute.

Entrepreneurs are not fools. They profit from alertness to the effects of changes in the fortunes of the firm on labour productivity. There is a vast literature on how to motivate workers towards more effort and diligence and honesty.

I worked at a Japanese private university whose financial survival was always in question. We spent a lot of time gossiping about the security of our jobs.

I refer to one year at one employer as the year of doing nothing because management was so consumed with restructuring and downsizing. They were too busy to sign out the output of their staff.

I have come across an estimate the effect of downsizing announcement on productivity at a German bakery chain of 193 shops.

Source: The Effect of Announced Downsizing on Workplace Performance: Evidence from a Retail Chain by Guido Friebel, Matthias Heinz, Nikolay Zubanov :: SSRN.

The study found that announcements of a sale to a new owner and closure reduced sales by six and 21 percent, respectively. This negative effect increased with the share of workers on a permanent contract, even though these workers faced a much lower unemployment risk. Fewer customers were served per unit of time because of less employee effort at the bakery chain.

Going back to my year of doing nothing, which dragged out through worker consultations sought by the unions under the collective agreement, I remember chatting to a mate whose father was in the downsizing consulting business. He told me that private businesses get downsizing over as quickly as possible because of the impact on morale and productivity. Entrepreneurs are perfectly aware that uncertainty promotes office gossip and valuable staff moving on.

% of workforce employed by large firms across the OECD

It is claimed that New Zealand lacks large firms, that “New Zealand has one very large firm – Fonterra – and a long tale of large to mid-sized firms”. The percentage of the workforce employed by large firms in New Zealand is in the middle of the pack. It is not in any way an outlier.

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Source: Entrepreneurship at a Glance 2015 – OECD 2015.

A hurdle to cross-national comparisons of firm size distribution is the number of small firms will fall and the number of large firms will rise with increases in real wages (Lucas 1978; Poschke 2013; Gollin 2008; Eeckhout and Jovanovic 2012). Nations that are more productive than New Zealand have higher wages because they have accumulated more capital per worker. One consequence of more capital per worker is real wages increase at a faster rate than profits (Gollin 2008; Eeckhout and Jovanovic 2012). For example, the rate of return on capital was stable over the 20th century while real wages increased many fold (Jones and Romer 2010).

Higher wages reduces the supply of entrepreneurs and increases the average size of firms because entrepreneurship becomes a less attractive occupational choice (Lucas 1978; Gollin 2008; Eeckhout and Jovanovic 2012). For example, in the mid-20th century, many graduates who were not teachers were self-employed professionals. With an expanding division of labour because of economic growth, many well-paid jobs and new occupations emerged for talented people in white-collar employment.

OECD countries richer than New Zealand should have less self-employment and more firms that are large because paid employment is an increasingly better-rewarded career option for their high skilled workers. The U.S. had the second lowest share of self-employed workers (7 percent) in the OECD in 2010 – the latest data – which is less than half the rate of New Zealand self-employment (16.5 percent) in 2011 (OECD 2013). The Australian self-employment rate was 11.6 per cent in 2010 (OECD 2013).

A companion reason for larger average firm sizes in countries richer than New Zealand is more capital-intensive production can prosper in larger corporate hierarchies than can labour-intensive production (Lucas 1978; Becker and Murphy 1992; Poschke 2011; Eeckhout and Jovanovic 2012).

The more able entrepreneurs can run larger firms with bigger spans of control in richer countries because their employees can profitably use more capital per worker with less supervision. The diseconomies of scale to management and entrepreneurship should rise at a faster rate in less technological advanced countries such as New Zealand because they are more labour intensive economies (Lucas 1978; Becker and Murphy 1992; Poschke 2011; Eeckhout and Jovanovic 2012).

Importantly, the more able entrepreneurs benefit most from introducing frontier technologies because they can deal more easily with their increased complexity and more uncertain prospects (Poschke 2011; Lazear 2005; Shultz 1975; 1980). Growing technological complexity reduces the supply of entrepreneurs because it takes longer to acquire the necessary balance of skills and experience needed to lead a firm (Lazear 2005; Otani 1996).

The more marginal entrepreneurs will switch to be employees as technology advances so the average size of firms will increase. The entrepreneurs that remain in business will be the most able, more skilled and more experienced entrepreneurs and will be more capable of running larger firms that pioneer complex, frontier technologies (Poschke 2011; Lazear 2005, Otani 1996; Lucas 1978). Countries more technologically advanced than New Zealand will have both larger firms and less self-employment because of growing technological complexity.

The greater is the exposure to foreign competition, the smaller is the fraction of self-employed and small firms in a country (Melitz 2003; Díez and Ozdagli 2012). More foreign competition increases wages because of lower prices, which makes self-employment less lucrative. More exporting favours larger firms both because of the fixed costs of entering export markets and because the stiffer competition will weed-out the lower ability entrepreneurs who run the smaller firms (Melitz 2003; Díez and Ozdagli 2012). Countries that export more than New Zealand also will have larger firms.

Average firm sizes are often larger is richer countries because of their high labour productivity and higher wages rather than labour productivity is low in New Zealand because average firm sizes are smaller. Other factors can countermand the effects that occupational choice, frontier technologies, exporting and capital intensity have to increase the average size of firms as real wages rise. This makes comparisons of firm size distributions are even more fraught with institutional complexities.

Tax and regulatory policies appear to reduce the average size of firms in many EU member states to levels that are similar to New Zealand. A nuance in international comparisons of firm size distributions is the EU is less likely to have large firms in its labour intensive sectors. Employment protection laws, product market and land use regulation and in particular, high taxes stifled the growth of labour intensive services sectors in the continental EU (Bertrand and Kramatz 2002; Bassanini, Nunziata and Venn 2009; Rogerson 2008).

EU firms are a biased sample. Their firms are more capital intensive with fewer employees than otherwise because labour is so expensive to hire in the EU. Small and medium sized firms can struggle to grow in much of the EU because of regulatory burdens that phase in with firm size (Garicano, Lelarge and Van Reenen 2012; Hobijn and Sahin 2013; Rubini, Desmet, Piguillem and Crespo 2012). Average firm sizes are 40 percent smaller in Spain and Italy than in Germany. Obstacles to firm growth originate in product, labour, technology and financial and the binding constraints differ from one EU member state to another (Rubini, Desmet, Piguillem and Crespo 2012).

Bartelsman, Haltiwanger, and Scarpetta (2009) found that the USA had a very high proportion of above-average sized firms. Western Europe had smaller firms in most industries with one of the exceptions in low-tech UK industries. Apart from the USA, they could not map differences in firm size against the overall size of the country, the technology levels of an industry, or its degree of maturity.

Another confounding factor is the average number of employees in firms with 500 or more employees in France and New Zealand is similar: 1667 and 1593 respectively (Mills and Timmins 2004; Hobijn and Sahin forthcoming). Preferring the UK over France as the benchmark for very large firms calls for a detailed analysis of Anglo-French institutional differences. This defeats the very purpose of the simple statistical comparisons undertaken to date. These simple cross-national statistical comparisons presuppose relatively common economic drivers and institutional backgrounds. If that is not so, a detailed institutional analysis is required before cross-national comparisons are possible. Bartelsman, Haltiwanger, and Scarpetta (2009) suggest that cross-national comparisons of firm dynamics and firm size distribution are subject to substantial definitional and measurement problems and no one measure will capture properly the many institutional and regulatory differences.

Average firm sizes in the USA and UK may be larger because of fewer tax and regulatory policies that limit business growth. Bartelsman, Scarpetta and Schivardi (2005) found that new entrants in the U.S. started on a smaller scale than in Europe but grew at a much higher rate. This willingness to experiment on a smaller scale was worth the risk because the payoff was much larger in terms of growth in the more flexible U.S. markets.

New Zealand’s tourism industry halved in size in the last 2 years but it is only a statistical revision

At 4% of GDP and employment in 2014, that is half estimated size of the New Zealand tourism sector in 2012. Statistics are only estimates. The trouble is politicians and bureaucrats make decisions on the base of them that might not be able to be reversed. Little wonder that Hong Kong prospered by as collecting as few as statistics as possible.

Source: OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2016 | OECD READ edition.

Source: OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2014 | OECD READ edition.

The earlier New Zealand data referred to direct and indirect contributions while the latest data refers only to direct contributions. New Zealand is no longer top of the world.

Creative destruction in television watching

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This @amprog lead in picture and its 1st figure about minimal improvement in living standards in 30 years just does not gel somehow

Source: When I Was Your Age | Center for American Progress.

The claim by the Centre for American progress is that despite being more educated and working in a more productive economy, 30-year-olds today barely make more than 30-year-old Baby Boomers did in 1984.

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Source: When I Was Your Age | Center for American Progress.

Oil prices were really low in the 90s

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Source: CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Why Do Oil Prices Keep Astonishing Us?

Creative destruction in digital cameras

Nokia phone ~2004 vs. iPhone ~2015.

https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/679842098632249344

https://twitter.com/JustHistoryPics/status/699047605070884866

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