"Pot Is the New Pizza" in Washington State – Hit & Run

Evan Cox left pizza delivery and now employs 50 people in Washington state in his pot delivery company:

Although it is legal to buy marijuana in Washington state, the person who delivers it could be guilty of a felony. That hasn’t stopped Winterlife from attracting competitors.

Mr Cox has registered as a business with the city and state, but he cannot open a bank account, thanks to federal rules.

In April, he paid $167,000 in sales tax to the Washington State Department of Revenue—in cash.

via Door-to-Door Dope Delivery: "Pot Is the New Pizza" in Washington State – Hit & Run : Reason.com.

The importance of bidding for the Olympics, losing that bid, but putting on a good show

Both successful and unsuccessful bids to host the Olympics  have a similar positive impact on exports according to Andrew Rose  – no relation.

The Olympic effect on trade is from a signal that a country sends when bidding to host the games, rather than actually hosting the event.

A country that wishes to liberalise its trade may want to signal this by bidding to host a mega-event. It generates extra trade-related investment and creates a political atmosphere where back-sliding on trade liberalisation or the mega-event becomes difficult.

  • Rome was awarded the 1960 games in 1955: the same year that Italy started to move towards currency convertibility, joined the UN, and began the negotiations that lead two years later to the Treaty of Rome and the creation of the European Economic Community.
  • The Tokyo games of 1964 coincided with Japanese entry into the IMF and the OECD.
  • Barcelona was awarded the 1992 games in 1986, the same year Spain joined the European economic community.
  • The decision to award Korea the 1988 games coincided with Korea’s political liberalisation.

Many of the countries that are hosted the Olympic Games in recent years such as China have done so as part of showing to the world that they have made it and there’s no going back.

The trick  then for the  taxpayer is  for your country’s bid  to host the Olympics to come a close second without anyone knowing you really want to lose.

The trouble with treating the Olympic bid is all show to boost your image  as an investment destination and a liberalising economy is  your beard might actually win. Throwing a fight is never easy as many a boxer knows.

Capitalism is a profit AND loss system

The economic miracle that has been the United States was not produced by socialized enterprises, by government-union-industry cartels or by centralized economic planning. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system. And losses were at least as important in weeding out failures as profits in fostering successes. Let government succor failures, and we shall be headed for stagnation and decline.  - Milton Friedman

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Ronald Coase on blackboard economics

Slideshow: Ronald Coase, 1910-2013

This neglect of other aspects of the system has been made easier by another feature of modern economic theory – the growing abstraction of the analysis, which does not seem to call for a detailed knowledge of the actual economic system or, at any rate, has managed to proceed without it.

Holmstrom and Tirole, writing on The Theory of the Firm in the recently published Handbook of Industrial Organization, conclude at the end of their article of 63 pages that "the evidence/theory ratio… is currently very low in this field". Peltzman has written a scathing review of the Handbook in which he points out how much of the discussion in it is theory without any empirical basis.

What is studied is a system which lives in the minds of economists but not on earth.

I have called the result "blackboard economics". The firm and the market appear by name but they lack any substance. The firm in mainstream economic theory has often been described as a "black box". And so it is.

This is very extraordinary given that most resources in a modern economic system are employed within firms, with how these resources are used dependent on administrative decisions and not directly on the operation of a market.

Consequently, the efficiency of the economic system depends to a very considerable extent on how these organisations conduct their affairs, particularly, of course, the modern corporation.

Even more surprising, given their interest in the pricing system, is the neglect of the market or more specifically the institutional arrangements which govern the process of exchange.

As these institutional arrangements determine to a large extent what is produced, what we have is a very incomplete theory.

Four years before his Nobel lecture, Coase was more specific:

Marginal cost pricing is a policy is largely without merit.

How then can one explain the widespread support that it has enjoyed in the economics profession?

I believe it is the result of economists using an approach which I have termed “blackboard economics.”

The policy under consideration is one which is implemented on the blackboard. All the information needed is assumed to be available and the teacher plays all the parts. He fixes prices, imposes taxes, and distributes subsidies (on the blackboard) to promote the general welfare.

But there is no counterpart to the teacher within the real economic system. There is no one who is entrusted with the task that is performed on the black- board.

In the back of the teacher’s mind (and sometimes in the front of it) there is, no doubt, the thought that in the real world the government would fill the role he plays. But there is no single entity within the government which regulates economic activity in detail, carefully adjusting what is done in one place to accord with what is done elsewhere.

Coase argued that  marginal cost pricing is not only inefficient, but even inferior to average cost pricing due to:

(i) the fact that under marginal cost pricing, consumers are not forced to pay the full costs of the goods they purchase, leading to potentially inefficient consumption choices;

(ii) the lack of information necessary for the government to determine whether consumers would be willing to pay an amount sufficient to cover the total cost of the goods produced, and costly nature of attempts to make such estimates; and

(iii) the fact that the governmental subsidy necessary to ensure firm survival under a marginal cost pricing scheme will likely be financed through distortionary taxes, thereby creating or exacerbating a distortion in one market at the same time that it corrects a distortion in another.

The market process picks unusual winners

What World Bank consultant would risk his fee and return business on advising Egypt to specialise in the export of toilets to Italy? But Egypt’s largest single manufacturing export is toilets to Italy where it captured 93% of the market.

Kenya has a booming export business in cut flowers for men to buy for their wives. Kenya has 40% of the European markets for cut flowers. Nigeria has 84% of the Norwegian market for floating docks. The Philippines has 71% of the global market for electronic integrated circuits.

What development expert would have picked these winners? They’re far too far away from the conventional wisdom and the safe bets that are behind picking winners in government circles.

Picking winners by governments requires heroic assumptions not only about the information politicians and bureaucrats have about the present and their ability to predict the future, but also about their motivations and their ability to resist capture by special interests. The Economist explains:

None of these studies addresses a deeper problem with the way industrial policy tends to develop over time.

Earlier efforts have tended to degenerate into rent-seeking, lobbying and cosy deals between incumbent firms and bureaucrats, stifling innovation and the process of creative destruction.

The problem, of course, is that … industrial policy requires disinterested, benevolent policymakers who can do it well. Unfortunately, they do not yet have a recipe for how such policymakers can be created.

Policy is made by real people with political and personal motivations. What they come up with is unlikely to be as well designed as the ones in the models.

Good monopolies and bad price cuts

A surprising number of well-meaning people want to protect consumers from the scourge of lower prices. These abominations come from imports, new entry or cost reductions.

Richard Epstein talked about how progressives think they can tell the difference between a good monopoly and a bad monopoly.

MON_PROF.gif

There is one instance in which monopoly could arise in the free market – exclusive ownership of an essential input (Kirzner 1973):

Monopoly … in a market free of government obstacles to entry, means for us the position of a producer whose exclusive control over necessary inputs blocks competitive entry into the production of his product.

Monopoly thus does not refer to the position of a producer who, without any control over resources, happens to be the only producer of a particular product. This producer is fully subject to the competitive market process, since other entrepreneurs are entirely free to compete with him.

In all other cases, monopoly is the grant by government of an exclusive privilege to produce or sell a product (Rothbard 1962). This definition is from the common law as per Lord Coke:

A monopoly is an institution or allowance by the king, by his grant, commission, or otherwise . . . to any person or persons, bodies politic or corporate, for the sole buying, selling, making, working, or using of anything, whereby any person or persons, bodies politic or cor­porate, are sought to be restrained of any freedom or liberty that they had before, or hindered in their lawful trade.

The Social Possibilities of Economic Chivalry (1907)

Alfred Marshall.jpg

A Government could print a good edition of Shakespeare’s works, but it could not get them written…

I am not urging that municipalities should avoid all such undertakings without exception. For, indeed, when a large use of rights of way, especially in public streets, is necessary, it is doubtless generally best to retain the ownership, if not also the management, of the inevitable monopoly in public hands.

I am only urging that every new extension of Governmental work in branches of production which need ceaseless creation and initiative is to be regarded as prima facie anti-social, because it retards the growth of that knowledge and those ideas which are incomparably the most important form of collective wealth.

How does a free press emerge through the market process?

For much of the 19th century U.S. newspapers were public relations tools funded by politicians. Information hostile to a paper’s political views were ignored or dismissed as sophistry. Newspaper independence was rare. Fraud and corruption in 19th century America approached today’s more corrupt developing nations.

The newspaper industry underwent fundamental changes between 1870 and 1920 as the press became more informative and less partisan.
– 11 per cent of urban dailies were independent in 1870,
– 62 per cent were in 1920.

The rise of the informative press was the result of increased scale and competitiveness in the newspaper industry caused by technological progress in the newsprint and newspaper industries.
• From 1870 to 1920, when corruption appears to have declined significantly within the United States, the press became more informative, less partisan, and expanded circulation considerably.
• By the 1920s, the partisan papers no longer coupled allegations of the corruption of their party members with condemnation of the character of the person making the charge.

A reasonable hypothesis is rise of the informative press was one of the reasons why the corruption of the Gilded Age was sharply reduced during the Progressive Era.

A supply-side model suggesting that newspapers weigh the rewards of bias—politicians’ bribes or personal pleasure—against the cost of bias—lost circulation from providing faulty news.

The key predictions of the model are that, as the size of the market for newspapers rises, and as the marginal cost of producing a paper falls, newspapers will become less biased and invest more in gathering information.

Corruption declined because media proprietors discovered that they could maintain and boost circulation by exposing it. An independent press which kept a watchful eye over government and business was a spontaneous order that was a by-product of rising incomes and literacy of readers.

Politicians did not help the process along. Technological innovations and increased city populations caused a huge increase in scale.

Newspapers become big businesses; they increased readership and revenue by presenting factual and informative news. It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, it is from their high regard to their own interest.

Following these incentives, newspapers changed from political tools to impartial reporting. Those newspapers that did not did not survive in competition.

HT: The Rise of the Fourth Estate: How Newspapers Became Informative and Why It Mattered by Matthew Gentzkow, Edward L. Glaeser, and Claudia Goldin in Corruption and Reform: Lessons from America’s Economic History (2006).

Hollywood economics

Peter Jackson and the rest of the New Zealand film industry recently received a large increase in tax breaks and subsidies to stay competitive in the global subsidy market that is film production. But for the increased subsidy, the New Zealand film industry would have suffered from runaway productions. Whether that race to the bottom is a game worth playing is for another time.

The Directors Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild of America define runaway productions as motion picture productions or television shows that are

intended for initial release/exhibition or television broadcast in the US, but are actually filmed in another country.

One foreign shore for these runaway productions is New Zealand. New Zealand is a major beneficiary from the growth in internationally mobile cultural productions.

Runaways can be creative runaways because of script requirements or settings that cannot be duplicated or because the preferences of the actors or director.

An economic runaway goes abroad to reduce costs. The concerns of the Screen Actors Guild about runaway productions date back to the 1950s.

Consumer demand is an important driver of the globalisation of film production both in terms of expected quality of productions and a willingness to patronise individual films and television shows.

Film and television is part of a much larger, highly competitive and price-sensitive leisure and entertainment market.

Film producers learnt right from the start that audiences demanded novelty and innovation – they wanted to be surprised again and again. Short films evolved into full-length feature films with complex narratives. Sound, colour, spectacle, and endless special effects and increasingly sophisticated distribution and exhibition networks were required to stay ahead.

Film-going choices are driven to a high degree by a demand for novelty and a taste for uncertainty. Audiences take a chance on a film they may not know much about, which is a large part of the experience sought.

The first law of Hollywood economics is ‘nobody knows anything’. Extreme uncertainty is pervasive in film and television show production.

Every film and show is a unique product. In the film industry, the uniqueness of each film means product innovation is both rapid and thoroughly unpredictable.

Many famous films and shows succeeded because the producers made something that audiences did not know they wanted to see.

Their success surprised everyone, including the producers. Star Wars, Rocky, National Lampoon’s Animal House, The Blair Witch Project, The Gods Must Be Crazy, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, The Godfather, Fawlty Towers and Seinfeld are all examples.

Big budgets do not guarantee a profit; star power and large marketing budgets do not reduce ‘the terror of the box office’ and the films involving stars often run over budget.

There is no typical movie – industry profits depend disproportionately on rare blockbusters, and there are many dogs – 78 per cent of films are unprofitable. Steven Bonars explains it well:

In 2000 the average top 1% film earned 100 times as much and the average top 10% film earned 50 times as much as the median film.

Today these box office ratios are about 1400:1 and 550:1 for movies in the top 1% and 10% respectively.

 

Adam Smith on growing grapes in Scotland

Smith, Adam images

By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland, and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries.

Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all foreign wines, merely to encourage the making of claret and burgundy in Scotland?

…As long as the one country has those advantages, and the other wants [lacks] them, it will always be more advantageous for the latter, rather to buy of the former than to make.

Ronald Coase and the preoccupation with monopoly

Ronald Coase

One important result of this preoccupation with the monopoly problem is that if an economist finds something—a business practice of one sort or other—that he does not understand, he looks for a monopoly explanation. And as in this field we are very ignorant, the number of ununderstandable practices tends to be rather large, and the reliance on a monopoly explanation, frequent.

After this foray written in 1971, Coase went further in an appreciation written for George Stigler’s Nobel Prize in 1982:

…for reasons which are not altogether clear to me, it is a field [of industrial organisation] which has come to concentrate on The Monopoly Problem and, more specifically in the United States, on the problems thrown up by the administration of the antitrust laws.

The result has not been a happy one for economics.

By concentrating on the problem of monopoly in dealing with an economic system which is, broadly speaking, competitive, economists have had their attention misdirected and as a consequence they have left unexplained many of the salient features of our economic system or have been content with very defective explanations.

The share market as a spy, investigator and muckraker: using share price movements to uncover secrets and solve mysteries

Armen Alchian successfully identifying lithium as the fissile fuel in the Bikini Atoll atomic bomb using only publicly available financial data. The early 1954 RAND corporation memo by Alchian was classified a few days later.

The Stock Market Speaks: How Dr. Alchian Learned to Build the Bomb by Joseph Michael Newhard, August 27, 2013 at for a replication study of Alchian’s event study of share market reactions to the Bikini Atoll nuclear detonations in 1954 updated with declassified information and modern finance theory.

An extra challenge for Alchian was not only was the component of the bomb classified, whether the explosion was atomic or hydrogen was classified too.

The share price of the supplier of lithium surged within a few days.

The replication study by Newhard found a significant upward movement in the price of Lithium Corporation relative to the other corporations. Within three weeks of the explosion, its shares were up 48% before settling down to a monthly return of 28% despite secrecy, scientific uncertainty, and public confusion surrounding the test; the company saw a return of 461% for the year.

The share market is a surprising efficient tool for discerning new knowledge.

After the Challenger space shuttle disaster in 1986, the share market identified within the hour which component supplier made the faulty part and marked it down accurately as to damages and loss of business. The blue ribbon commission of inquiry took 6-months to find the culprit.

In the period immediately following the crash, securities trading in the four main shuttle contractors singled out Morton Thiokol as having manufactured the faulty component.

Intraday stock price movements following the challenger disaster


At market close, Thiokol’s shares were down nearly 12 per cent. By contrast, the share prices of the three other firms started to creep back up, and by the end of the day their value had fallen only around 3 per cent.

Morton Thiokol shed some $200 million in market value on the day. Over the next several months, the other contractors recovered and outperformed the market while Morton Thiokol lagged.

As a result of the investigation, Morton Thiokol had to pay legal settlements and perform repair work of $409 million at no profit. It also dropped out of bidding for future business.

The $200 million equity decline for Morton Thiokol in hindsight is a reasonable prediction of lost cash flows that came as a result of the judgment of culpability in the crash.

William Brown found that a group of firms that had significant ties to Lyndon Johnson increased in the market value after President Kennedy’s assassination. The share prices of General Dynamics, whose main aircraft plant was located in Fort Worth, Texas, climbed from $23.75 on November 22 to $25.13 on November 26, and by February 1964 was up over $30, a jump of around 30 per cent in three months.

Over the ten trading days following the announcement of Timothy Geithner’s nomination as U.S. Treasury Secretary, financial firms with a connection to Geithner experienced a cumulative abnormal return of about 12% relative to other financial sector firms. This reversed when his nomination ran into trouble due to unexpected tax return issues.

Pat Akey (2013) looked at the abnormal returns in share prices around close U.S. congressional elections. Firms gain on the election of a politician with whom they are connected – and they lost when he or she is defeated. The cumulative abnormal return to be between 1.7% and 6%.


Corporate welfare and middle-class welfare defined

The term corporate welfare was coined by Ralph Nader in 1956. Corporate welfare is subsidies, tax breaks, or other favourable treatment for business and implies that business are much less needy of such treatment than the poor.

The Right talks of the deserving and undeserving poor. The Left countered with payments to business.

Supporters of corporate welfare often justify them as remedying some sort of purported market failure.

Businesses, big and small, see market failure everywhere under balance sheets that are in the red.

The notion behind corporate welfare is profits should be private while losses should be a reason for a taxpayer bailout.

Both direct and indirect subsidies to businesses are classified as corporate welfare. The reason is businesses as supposed to make a profit or go out of business.

If a business is losing money, they should try better or do something different or just go out of business.

Losses are not a reason for a taxpayer bailout. No business project should be premised on government subsidies.

The purpose of the capital market is to direct investment to projects that have a future and take support away from failing projects.

The capital market is picking winners and losers every day because that’s its job. That’s what it’s good at.

The participants in the capital market who are not good at picking winners and avoiding losers will themselves will go soon out of business.

Corporate welfare is increasingly used interchangeably with crony capitalism.

A kissing cousin of corporate welfare is farm welfare. These are the countless subsidies that farmers get in Europe and America, and in the past, in New Zealand.

Middle-class welfare is cash payments by the government to the non-poor. These payments to the middle-class can be for having children such as in Working for Families, for early-childhood education or for childcare. Middle-class welfare also can be tax breaks and subsidies for retirement savings of the nonpoor.

It is pointless to tax the middle-class and then give them their money pretty much straight back as a cash payment for a particular purpose be it child care or for their retirement. Middle-class welfare covers at least in part expenses the middle-class could have covered themselves but for the taxes.

What is evidence of price collusion?

Posner and Easterbrook suggest that these industry behaviours together are suspicious.

  1. Fixed relative market shares among top firms over time.
  2. Declining absolute market shares of the industry leaders.
  3. Persistent price discrimination.
  4. Certain types of exchanges of price information.
  5. Regional price variations.
  6. Identical sealed bids for tenders.
  7. Price, output, and capacity changes at the time of the suspected initiation of collusion.
  8. Industry-wide resale price maintenance or non-price vertical restraints.
  9. Relatively infrequent price changes; smaller price reactions as a result of known cost changes.
  10. Demand is highly responsive to price changes at market price.
  11. Level and pattern of profits relatively favourable to smaller firms.
  12. Particular pricing and marketing strategies.

Aaron Director’s most creative suggestion of evidence of price collusion is disputes between the marketing and finance departments of a large company. The market department wants to cut prices because there would be a large increase in sales. The finance department says no because this would take the price below the monopoly or agreed cartel price.

The next time you make an allegation of price fixing

Remember this, firms are only likely to collude in certain market environments.

Brozen and Posner suggest the following pre-conditions to collusion

  • market concentration on the supply side;
  • no fringe of small sellers;
  • high transport costs from neighbouring markets;
  • small variations in production costs between firms;
  • readily available information on prices;
  • inelastic demand at the competitive price;
  • low pre-collusion industry profits;
  • long lags on new entry;
  • many buyers (otherwise selective discounting to big buyers will be too tempting while monitoring adherence to the agreement will be difficult);
  • no significant product differentiation;
  • large suppliers selling at the same level in the distribution chain;
  • a simple price, credit and distribution structure;
  • price competition is more important than other forms of competition;
  • demand is static or declining over time; and
  • stagnant technological innovation and product redesign.

Stable collusive arrangements are thus likely to be rare; the absence of any of the conditions will tend to undermine the potential for successful collusion.

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