Media conspiracies versus cartel theory

Media conspiracy theories suggest someone is in control; that dark, all-powerful cabals of men in cultish robes control the world. The truth is no one is in control. What about 57 channels, nothing on!

Newspapers, TV and cable, are not a monopoly. A monopoly is a single seller of as product with a legal right to bar new entry. It is an exclusive right to sell something.

At best, newspapers, TV and cable, are a large and unwieldy cartel under pressure from costs and new entry. The Internet makes electronic news competition global.

There are many different Australian news outlets and media types, three national networks, plus many cable news networks and 9 media owners. That is more than enough to destabilise any cartel.

Why is the mass media special? A supply-side model of media ownership suggesting that media outlets weigh the rewards of bias—political influence or personal pleasure—against the cost of bias—lost circulation from providing faulty news.

The mass media is a big business, and they increase readership and revenue by presenting factual and informative news.

The most likely to turn-off are women, and women vote to the Left more often than do men. The media is perhaps pandering to this centre-left marginal buyer.

A news cartel is like any other cartel. All cartels break-down and only some get back together.

Cartels contain seeds of their own destruction. Cartel members are reducing their output below their existing potential production capacity, and once the market price increases, each member of the cartel has the capacity to raise output relatively easily.

All cartels must decide how to allocate the reduction of output that follows the price increases across members with different costs structures and spare capacity.:

  • The tendency is for cartel members to cheat on their production quotas, increasing supply to meet market demand and lowering their price.
  • Most cartel agreements are unstable and at the slightest incentive they will quickly disband, and returning the market to competitive conditions.

One sign of a cartel that was developed by Aaron Director is periods of stable prices, despite cost fluctuations, followed by sudden price changes when the cartel collapses or decide to increase prices.

For a news cartel, this means toeing the line and then periods of truth, and then a sudden return to the party line when the cartel starts-up again.

The exercise of collective market power will not be stable unless sellers agree on prices and production shares; on how to divide the profits; on how to enforce the agreement; on how to deal with cheating; and on how to prevent new entry.

A cartel is in the unenviable position of having to satisfy everyone, for one dissatisfied producer can bring about the feared price competition and the disintegration of the cartel.

Thus a successful cartel must follow a policy of continual compromise. Little wonder that John. S McGee wrote that:

The history of cartels is the history of double crossing

Competition as a force for media accuracy or infotainment

Limiting the number of TV stations has unusual effects on media slant and muckraking.

Tyler Cowen argues that competition by itself is not a powerful force for media accuracy.

In the traditional conception of the demand for news, audiences read, watch, and listen to the news in order to get information. The quality of news is its accuracy.

But when there are many media outlets, competition results in a common slanting of news towards reader biases in the audience niche each network are serving. The market is very good are serving up what the customer wants.

Competition forces news outlets to cater to their customer’s niche preferences.

  • Realised profit is the criterion by which the market process selects survivors: those who realise positive profits survive; those who suffer losses disappear.
  • Positive profits accrue to those news outlets who are better than their competitors. These lesser rivals will exhaust their retained earnings and fail to attract further new investor support.

On topics where reader beliefs diverge on politically divisive issues, media outlets profit from segmenting the market and slanting reports to the biases of their niche audiences.

There is less bland truth-telling and more of the polemics that each market niche wants.

This means that left-wing and right-wing media outlets will hound the political enemies of their readers to cater to the preferences of their audience niche.

The clearest illustration of infotainment is the Lewinsky affair:

  • The left wing press presented information designed to excuse Clinton’s sins; and
  • The right wing press dug out details pointing to his culpability.

When there are only a few media outlets, the networks instead go for the median viewer/reader and offer more sedate and less scandal driven coverage.

More media competition increases the chances of the muckraking that brings down ministers and governments.

Richard Epstein “The Coming Meltdown in Labor Relations”

Those subservient press barons

Both political parties used television licensing and the threat of cable TV to manipulate Murdoch, Packer and the other press barons. They were victims of Fred McChesney’s concept of rent extraction:

  • Rent extraction is the politician’s pastime of threatening harmful legislation to extract political support and contributions from well-heeled private institutions.
  • Payments to politicians are often made not for political favours, but to avoid political disfavour, that is, as part of a system of political extortion or rent extraction.

Rent extraction is money for nothing – money paid in exchange for politicians’ inaction.

The politician is paid, not for rent creation, but for withholding legislative and regulatory action that would destroy existing private rents.

McChesney establishes the conditions under which of rent creation or extraction will occur. The relative attractiveness of the two strategies depends on the elasticities of demand and supply.

  • If demand is relatively inelastic, rent creation will occur; and
  • If supply is relatively inelastic, rent extraction will occur.

The existence of an organization or a large established firm lowers transaction costs for the politicians negotiating and collecting donations and support, making rent expropriation threats easier.

It is hard to extort rents from those with little in the way of organisation. A cost of being an established lobbying organisation or a large firm with high fixed costs is a greater potential for rent extraction.

The print and electronic media are ripe for rent extraction because of their immobile assets and heavy regulation.

Investors in heavily regulated capital intensive industries such as the mass media, digital and print, do not bite the hand the feeds them.

Little wonder that the media barons were honoured supplicants to whomever is in power in Canberra. They are soon Labor’s business mates whenever Labor was in power.

Threatening to allow cable TV was the big stick in every Australian government’s hand until the 1990s to extract support or at least subservience from the media.

Rupert Murdoch has unashamedly backed political winners, only to dump them when he was convinced that they were washed up or that his newspapers might be left stranded on the losing side of politics.

Murdoch’s see-sawing political stances are entirely pragmatic. He has always been prepared to back winners just before they win, and to shift allegiances on non-ideological grounds.

The Rawlsian social justice case for super-entrepreneurs and many more billionaires

The report SuperEntrepreneurs shows that:

  • SuperEntrepreneurs founded half the largest new firms created since the end of the Second World War
  • There is a strong correlation between high rates of SuperEntrepreneurship in a country and low tax rates
  • a low regulatory burden and high rates of philanthropy both correlate strongly with high rates of SuperEntrepreneurship
  • Active government and supranational programmes to encourage entrepreneurship – such as the EU’s Lisbon Strategy – have largely failed.
  • Yet governments can encourage entrepreneurialism by lowering taxes (particularly capital gains taxes which have a particularly high impact on entrepreneurialism while raising relatively insignificant revenues); by reducing regulations; and by vigorously enforcing property rights.
  • High rates of self-employment and innovative entrepreneurship are both important for the economy.
  • Yet policy makers should recognise that they are not synonymous and should not assume policies which encourage self-employment necessarily promote entrepreneurship.
  • Policy makers should use a definition of entrepreneurship which is based on innovation.

SuperEntrepreneurs examined about 1,000 self-made men and women who have earned at least $1 billion dollars and who appeared in Forbes magazine list of the world’s richest people between 1996 and 2010.

Hong Kong has the most, with around three SuperEntrepreneurs per million inhabitants, followed by Israel, the US, Switzerland and Singapore.

The US is roughly four times more super-entrepreneurial than Western Europe and three times more super-entrepreneurial than Japan.

Super-entrepreneurs tend to be well-educated – 84% have a university degree.

Many started their own company but there is no clear relationship between self-employment and successful entrepreneurship

Steven Kaplan and Joshua Rauh’s “It’s the Market: The Broad-Based Rise in the Return to Top TalentJournal of Economic Perspectives 2013 found that those in the Forbes 400 richest are less likely to have inherited their wealth or grown-up wealthy.

Today’s super-rich are self-made rich because they produce new and better products and services that people wanted and are willing to pay for.

John Rawls was alive to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society.

With his emphasis on fair distributions of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left. Left-wing thinkers then started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and his tolerance of large discrepancies in income and wealth.

Rawls excluded envy when we are behind his veil of ignorance designed the social contract about how the society will be organised. He believed that principles of justice should not be affected by individual inclinations, which are mere accidents.

Rawls also argued that the liberties and political status of equal citizens encourage self-respect even when one is less well off than others; and background institutions (including a competitive economy) make it likely that excessive inequalities will not be the rule. He supposes that

the main psychological root of our liability to envy is a lack of self-confidence in our own worth combined with a sense of impotence

Then there is the old Russian joke that tells the story of a peasant with one cow who hates his neighbour because he has two. A sorcerer offers to grant the envious farmer a single wish any thing he wants: “Shoot my neighbour’s cow!” he demands.

via http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/04/entrepreneurship.html

The Death of the Renaissance Man?

Ben Jones in ‘The Burden of Knowledge and the Death of the Renaissance Man: Is Innovation Getting Harder? found that as knowledge accumulates as technology advances, successive generations of innovators may face an increasing educational burden.

Innovators can compensate through lengthening their time in education and narrowing expertise, but these responses come at the cost of reducing individual innovative capacities.

This has implications for the organization of innovative activity – a greater reliance on teamwork – and has negative implications for economic growth.

Jones found that the age at first invention, specialisation, and teamwork increased over time in a large micro-data set of inventors. Upward trends in academic collaboration and lengthening doctorates can also be explained in his framework.

Using data on Nobel Prize winners, Jones found that the mean age at which the innovations are produced to win the Prize has increased by 6 years over the 20th Century.

  • Before 1901, two-thirds of the Nobel laureates did their prize-winning work before the age of 40 and 20 per cent did it before age of 30.
  • By 2000, however, great achievements seldom occurred before the age of 40.

It’s now taking longer for scientists to get their basic training and start their careers. There is simply more to learn because knowledge in all fields has grown by quantum leaps in the past century.

Nobels are being handed out for different types of work than a century ago.

  • There has been a trend away from awarding prizes for abstract, theoretical ideas.
  • Now more honours are being bestowed on people who have made discoveries through painstaking lab work and experimentation – which takes a lot of time to do.

Jones’ theory provides an explanation for why productivity growth rates did not accelerate through the 20th century despite an enormous expansion in collective research effort and levels of education and many more graduates.

The more experienced readers of this blog might remember that the better of their professors seemed to be masters of the entire field of economics and could teach almost any subject.

These days, too many professors rely on textbooks with annual editions that come with the lecture notes, assignments and test-banks written for them by the publishing company.

Are there any polymaths left? Posner? Tullock?

Brave Kitten Stands Up to a Really Big, Loud Dog

via Brave Kitten Stands Up to Dog – YouTube.

But this is also an example of natural selection. Most predators fear a fight so standing up to them may tip the balance. The young of other prey animals sit still so as to not trigger the chase, kill instinct.

PEETA (People Enjoy Eating Tasty Animals)-updated

The web site formally known as People Enjoy Eating Tasty Animals (PEETA) is one of my favourite web sites.

When called PEETA in 1996 or so, this web site was the subject of a pioneering intellectual property court case by PETA.

Grilled Steak Recipe with Garlic-Herb Butter

The web site is a resource for those who enjoy eating meat, wearing fur and leather, hunting, and the fruits of scientific research. More on animal testing later with the help of Penn and Teller.

via People Eating Tasty Animals.

BTW, why are people not allowed to eat tasty animals, but other animals are allowed to eat each other if they can catch them. Should carnivores be required to become vegans? That would be a death sentence for them.

The case against industry policy in one photo

Industry policy is back in vogue in New Zealand:

  • The National Party-led Government is keen on smart specialisation.
  • The Labour Party wants a Manufacturing Upgrade targeting R&D and innovation.

The case against picking winners is the answer to the question in the picture of the weirdoes below.

One of the people in the photo won a competition on the radio that offered free company photos. That is how Microsoft could afford the photo. That photo became one of the most iconic photos in American business history.

I first saw this photo 12-14 years ago at a presentation, so who first designed the caption is lost in time.

Institutional Economics: Robert Shiller, Ex-Ante and Ex-Post

In his 2009 book with George Ackerlof, Robert Shiller, who shared a Nobel  Prize in economics for his work developing behavioural finance wrote:

there has been one way, at least in the past, in which almost everyone could become at least moderately rich

… Invest it for the long term in the stock market, where the rate of return after adjustment for inflation has been 7% per year’

Shiller’s ex-post observations on stock market returns in 2009 do not sit well with his ex-ante prediction in 1996:

long run investors should stay out of the market for the next decade.

via Institutional Economics: ‘Light Reading It’s Not’ – Forbes.

The joint advice of both the efficient market advocates such as Eugene Fama and the behavioural finance theorists on how to manage your retirement and other long-term savings are the same:

Buy and hold. Diversify. Put your money in index funds.

Pay attention to the one thing you can control–costs–and keep them as low as possible.

Index-linked or passive investment funds minimise their trading of shares and do not hire research departments so their costs and fees are far lower than investments funds that trade actively in the market trying to beat the market.

About 97% of these active funds fail to beat the market. The rest may just have been lucky.

  • The average actively managed investment must underperform the indexed investment when all costs are deducted.
  • The actively managed investments that beat the indexed investments this year fail to consistently beat the index in the future.

Investors can win higher returns by shouldering more risk and all that entails, and the reward for bearing risk vary over time and across assets.

Stumbling and Mumbling: 12 alternative principles to Thomas Sargent’s

1. People have different motivations: wealth, power, pride, job satisfaction and so on. Incentive structures which suit one set of motives might not work for another.

2. Many things are true but not very significantly so.

3. Power matters: conventional economics under-states this.

4. Luck matters. The R-squareds in Mincer equations are generally low.

5. There is a great deal of ruin in a nation, and in an organization.

6. Individual rationality sometimes produces outcomes which are socially optimal as in Adam Smith’s invisible hand, and sometimes not.

7. Trade-offs between values are more common than politicians pretend, but are not ubiquitous.

8. Cognitive biases are everywhere.

9. Everything matters at the margin, but the margin might not be very extensive.

10. The social sciences are all about mechanisms. The question is: which ones work when and where? This means there are few if any universal laws in the social sciences; context matters.

11. Accurate economic forecasting is impossible. But time-varying risk premia might give us a little predictability.

12. Risk comes in many types. Reducing one type of it often means increasing exposure to another type.

Chris Dillow at Stumbling and Mumbling: 12 alternative principles.

Famous Fables of Economics: Myths of Market Failures – Daniel Spulber (ed)

Table of Contents

Introduction: Economic Fables and Public Policy: Daniel F. Spulber.

  1. The Lighthouse in Economics: Ronald H. Coase.

  2. The Voluntary Provision of Public Goods? The Turnpike Companies of Early America: Daniel B. Klein.

  3. The Fable of the Bees: An Economic Investigation: Steven N. S. Cheung.

  4. The Fable of the Keys: Stan J. Liebowitz, and Stephen E. Margolis.

  5. Beta, Macintosh, and Other Fabulous Tales: Stan J. Liebowitz and Stephen E. Margolis.

  6. Delivering Coal by Road and Rail in Britain: The Efficiency of the “Silly Little Bobtailed Wagons”: Va Nee L. Van Vleck.

  7. The Acquisition of Fisher Body by General Motors: Ronald H. Coase.

  8. The Fable of Fisher Body: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Daniel F. Spulber.

  9. Sharecropping: Steven N. S. Cheung.

  10. Predatory Price Cutting: The Standard Oil (N.J.) Case: John S. McGee.

  11. Another Look at Alcoa: Raising Rivals’ Costs Does Not Improve the View: John E. Lopatka and Paul E. Godek.

  12. How Much Did the Liberty Shipbuilders Learn? New Evidence for an Old Case Study: Peter Thompson.

  13. Financial Legends: The Economist.

via Wiley: Famous Fables of Economics: Myths of Market Failures – Daniel Spulber.

Entrepreneurship and the Market Process with Israel Kirzner

Do monopoly concessions increase or decrease gambling?

Do monopoly concessions such as for casinos and the TAB increase or decrease gambling? Is the under-supply of output by a monopoly a good or a bad thing when the good itself is seen as a bad.

James Buchanan started his 1973 paper ‘A defence of organised crime?’ quoting Samuel Butler:

… we should try to make the self-interest of cads a little more coincident with that of decent people

Buchanan’s simple idea is that if a monopoly restricts the output of goods, a standard analytical result, then it must also restrict the output of bads! Buchanan end’s his paper with:

It is not from the public-spiritedness of the leaders of the Cosa Nostra that we should expect to get a reduction in the crime rate but from their regard for their own self-interests

The Cosa Nostra did have a reputation for running honest casinos and keeping crime down nearby.

If an illegal monopoly or cartel becomes competitive and barriers to entry are eliminated, in the long run, more illegal goods will be traded at the new equilibrium.

Should gambling outlets be public monopolies because they would be smaller, badly run and slow to innovate? The monopolisation of bads may shift us in the direction of social optimality. Buchanan, of course, adds that:

The analysis does nothing toward suggesting that enforcement agencies should not take maximum advantage of all technological developments in crime prevention, detection and control.

Tom Sargent’s 12 lessons from economics for public policy

Tom Sargent is a life-long Democrat who is old enough to remember when Democrats were fiscal conservatives.

At a graduation speech at Berkeley, Sargent listed these lessons:

    1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible.
    2. Individuals and communities face trade-offs.
    3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts, and their preferences than you do.
    4. Everyone responds to incentives, including people you want to help. That is why social safety nets don’t always end up working as intended.
    5. There are trade-offs between equality and efficiency.
    6. In an equilibrium of a game or an economy, people are satisfied with their choices. That is why it is difficult for well-meaning outsiders to change things for better or worse.
    7. In the future, you too will respond to incentives. That is why there are some promises that you’d like to make but can’t. No one will believe those promises because they know that later it will not be in your interest to deliver. The lesson here is this: before you make a promise, think about whether you will want to keep it if and when your circumstances change. This is how you earn a reputation.
    8. Governments and voters respond to incentives too. That is why governments sometimes default on loans and other promises that they have made.
    9. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. That is what national government debts and the U.S. social security system do (but not the social security system of Singapore).
    10. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation.
    11. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government transfers (especially transfers to themselves).
    12. Because market prices aggregate traders’ information, it is difficult to forecast stock prices and interest rates and exchange rates

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