Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
10 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, entrepreneurship, international economics
Tweet… is from page 11 of Menzie Chinn’s and Douglas Irwin’s superb 2025 textbook, International Economics: There is a parable about an entrepreneur who invents an amazing machine. Wheat, soybeans, lumber, and oil are fed into one end of the contraption. As if by magic, smartphones, coffee, and tea, and all manner of clothing and…
Quotation of the Day…
06 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history, international economics, macroeconomics
Here is another piece for “contrarian Tuesday,” like it or not: We construct an international panel data set comprising three distinct yet plausible measures of government indebtedness: the debt-to-GDP, the interest-to-GDP, and the debt-to-equity ratios. Our analysis reveals that these measures yield differing conclusions about recent trends in government indebtedness. While the debt-to-GDP ratio has…
Why Care About Debt-to-GDP?
04 Jan 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, economic history, history of economic thought, international economics
In 1933, John Maynard Keynes gave the first Finlay Lecture delivered at University College, Dublin, on the subject of “National Self-Sufficiency” (Studies: An Irish Quarterly Review,” June 1933, 22: 86, pp. 177-193). The Irish Free State of 1933 was a transition phase: after the Irish War of Independence that had ended in 1921, but before…
Keynes: Free Trade and the Nationalist Impulse
01 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, defence economics, economics of regulation, international economics, labour economics, labour supply, movies, television, TV shows, unions
This is not a “Star Wars vs Star Trek” post. I’m non-partisan. I enjoy both Star Wars and Star Trek about equally. And it turns out that I am not alone. Last December, John Hawkins (University of Canberra) wrote in The Conversation about what Star Wars can teach us about economics. This year, Hawkins (with Tesfaye…
What Star Wars AND Star Trek can teach us about economics
31 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
31 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, international economics
TweetHere’s a letter to a long-time, friendly patron of Café Hayek. Pete: Thanks for sending along Noah Smith’s Christmas-eve post titled “Why Europe should resist the Second China Shock.” Like you, I disagree with much that’s in this post. Especially disappointing is Smith writing this: “That’s what a trade deficit is – the writing of…
Noah Smith Is Mistaken About Trade Deficits
19 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade, tariffs
TweetHere’s a letter to a new correspondent. Mr. W__: Because I read the Wall Street Journal avidly, I was familiar, before you sent it, with its report titled “Why Everyone Got Trump’s Tariffs Wrong.” Nevertheless, thanks for your email in which you suggest that this report should prompt me to humbly reassess what you call…
Stop Slaying the Strawman Case Against Tariffs
19 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, economic growth, international economic law, international economics, macroeconomics Tags: British politics, economics of customs unions, free trade, tariffs
How we connect economically with the world is critical. Brian Easton writes – The British Labour Government is struggling. Partly it is because they were badly prepared in opposition: the Conservative Government was making such a charlie of itself that Labour expected that it would do better and gave little thought as to how it […]
Lessons from Brexit
13 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: free trade, tarrifs
TweetHere’s a letter to AP Fact Check. Editor: Melissa Goldin does a deep dive into the cause(s) of the U.S. “agricultural trade deficit” (“FACT FOCUS: Trump blames Biden for the agricultural trade deficit. It’s not that simple,” December 10). To what extent is this “deficit” caused by the policies of Biden? To what extent is…
Humanity Has a Huge Surplus of Economic Misunderstanding
06 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of regulation, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, international economics Tags: competition law, creative destruction
Nations around the world are reassessing antitrust policy (generally called “competition policy” overseas). Governments, regulators, and industry leaders are increasingly asking whether traditional antitrust enforcement is holding back the “competitiveness” of domestic firms. The term now shows up in speeches by European commissioners, in UK government directives, in U.S. merger battles, and in Canadian legislative…
Is Competitiveness Transforming Competition Policy?
24 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economics of regulation, industrial organisation, international economics, macroeconomics Tags: Brexit
I supported Brexit for two reasons. The European Union is a sinking ship and a vote for Brexit spares British taxpayers from being on the hook when massive bailouts occur. Leaving the European Union would give the United Kingdom more leeway to choose a pro-market, Singapore-on-Thames policy agenda. The good news is that Point #1 […]
Was Brexit a Mistake?
19 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, history of economic thought, income redistribution, industrial organisation, international economics, Milton Friedman, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: free trade, tariffs
Tweet… is from page 158 of Milton Friedman’s 1953 paper “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates,” as this paper is reprinted in Friedman’s 1953 collection, Essays in Positive Economics: In brief, it [free trade] is desirable in its own right as one of the basic freedoms we cherish; it promotes the efficient use of resources…
Quotation of the Day…
11 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, history of economic thought, international economics Tags: economics of colonialism 0
That is the new William Easterly book, and the subtitle is The West’s Conquest of the Rest. I liked this book very much, but found the title and also book jacket and descriptions misleading. I think of this work as a full-throated examination and study of the classical liberal anti-imperialist tradition. We have been needing […]
*Violent Saviors*
07 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, income redistribution, international economic law, international economics, International law, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: free trade, tarrifs
It seems as if a few times every week, I see a headline about President Trump announcing a new tariff or repealing a tariff, sometimes involve many countries and sometime just a few. However, it is not at all clear that any president has a right to alter tariffs. This question was raised before Trump…
Economists on the Trump Tariffs Supreme Court Case
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