The Japanese gender pay gap at the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile since 1975

The unadjusted gender pay gap is still large in Japan but is declining slowly.

image

Source: OECD Employment Database.

@zoesqwilliams has great timing on capitalism not doing enough on poverty @worstall

Source: Poverty goals? No, it’s extreme wealth we should be targeting | Zoe Williams | Comment is free | The Guardian

When Zoe Williams was born in 1973, 60% of humanity lived in extreme poverty. That has dropped to 1 in 10.

Just the other day, the World Bank estimated that extreme poverty has dropped below 10% of the world’s population for the first time in human history but some are still grumbling.

Zoe Williams is not grumbling about the failed states and predatory government responsible for the last pockets of extreme poverty, but about the inequality from economic progress under capitalism.

Zoe Williams honestly believes that extreme poverty could have been reduced faster if we had taken on the socialist road.

China and India escaped from extreme poverty by rejecting socialism.

China and India received next to no overseas development assistance in their Great Escape from extreme poverty.

There’s been some clear-cut natural experiments such as between Chile and Venezuela and Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and just about any other developing country in terms of capitalism as the only path to prosperity.

Keep calm and carry on – the British gender pay gaps at the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles

Unlike New Zealand or the USA, there is been steady progress up and down the entire British labour market in closing the gender pay gap.

image

Source: OECD Employment Database.

No country for gender equality – the Swedish gender pay gap at 10th, 50th and 90th percentile since 1980

Whatever else a generous welfare state, high taxes and lavish maternity leave may do, they haven’t made more than a scratch on the Swedish gender pay gap for 35 years at least.

Source: OECD Employment Database.

The reverse gender gap in black education

US gender wage gap at 10th, 50th and 90th percentile

In common with New Zealand, the most persistent gender pay gap is at the top end of the labour market. There is more gender equality among the lowest paid female workers than the highest-paid female workers. The gender pay gap for the top 10% of female workers has been static for 20 years. Gender pay gaps for female workers at the median weekly earnings for a full-time worker and at the bottom have been still closing albeit slowly over that same 20 years.

Source: OECD Employment Database.

NZ gender pay gap has closed – at the bottom anyway @YWCAAuckland @SFWU @JanLogie @FairnessNZ @ncwnz

The Auckland YMCA has made some strong claims about the persistence of gender wage gap saying that it is stubbornly stuck at 14% (when measured against average earnings).

Source: The gender pay gap needs to start closing.

It is not usual to measure the gender wage gap against average earnings. Median earnings preferably on an hourly basis is the normal measure. Moreover, more long-term data is readily available on the Internet about median earnings rather than average earnings.

For example, as the chart below shows the unadjusted gender wage gap in New Zealand is a little bit less than the 14% claimed by Auckland YMCA when measured against median earnings and has been slowly tapering down for 15 years.

Source: Statistics New Zealand New Zealand Income Survey.

My larger claim is the gender pay gap has been in a long-term decline for generations. More importantly, the gender will pay gap is disappeared at the bottom of the labour market. For the past 5 to 10 years, the unadjusted gender wage gap rounds down to zero at the bottom of the pay structure for full-time employees.

Source: OECD Employment Database.

The gender wage gap remains stubbornly high at the high end of the wage market at 15-20% because of compensating differentials. Women are balancing families and careers in choosing the occupations that best suits each individual woman.

Studies of top earning professionals show that they make quite deliberate choices between family and career. The better explanation of why so many women are in a particular occupation is job sorting: that particular job has flexible hours and the skills do not depreciate as fast for workers who take time off, working part-time or returning from time out of the workforce. Low job turnover workers will be employed by firms that invest more in training and job specific human capital.

  • Higher job turnover workers, such as women with children, will tend to move into jobs that have less investment in specialised human capital, and where their human capital depreciates at a slower pace.
  • Women, including low paid women, select careers in jobs that match best in terms of work life balance and allows them to enter and leave the workforce with minimum penalty and loss of skills through depreciation and obsolescence.

This is the choice hypothesis of the gender wage gap. Women choose to educate for occupations where human capital depreciates at a slower pace. This gender wage gap for professionals can be explained by the marriage market combined with assortative mating:

  1. Graduates are likely to marry each other and form power couples; and

  2. There tends to be an age gap between men and women in long-term relationships and marriages of two years.

This two-year age gap means that the husband has two additional years of work experience and career advancement. This is likely to translate into higher pay and more immediate promotional prospects. Maximising household income would imply that the member of the household with a higher income, and greater immediate promotional prospects stay in the workforce. This is entirely consistent with the choice hypothesis and equalising differentials as the explanation for the gender wage gap. As Solomon Polachek explains:

At least in the past, getting married and having children meant one thing for men and another thing for women. Because women typically bear the brunt of child-rearing, married men with children work more over their lives than married women. This division of labour is exacerbated by the extent to which married women are, on average, younger and less educated than their husbands.

This pattern of earnings behaviour and human capital and career investment will persist until women start pairing off with men who are the same age or younger than them.

Claudia Goldin did a great study of Harvard MBAs using online surveys of their careers. She found that three proximate factors accounted for the large and rising gender gap in earnings:

  • differences in training prior to MBA graduation,
  • differences in career interruptions, and
  • differences in weekly hours.

The greater career discontinuity and shorter work hours for female MBAs are largely associated with motherhood. There are some jobs that are severely penalise any time out of the workforce.  A 2014 Harvard Business School study found that 28 percent of recent female alumni took off more than six months to care for children; only 2 percent of men did.

Claudia Goldin has described pharmacy is the most family friendly occupation. She compares it to law. In law, if you work long hours, you are on partnership track and win the top clients. In pharmacy, the only advantage of working longer hours as you earn more money that week. Also, pharmacists are completely interchangeable. Do you care which pharmacist fills out your prescription at your local pharmacy or even know which one fills it out? Lawyers are not interchangeable: they cannot just handover a case. Detailed briefings would be required. You expect your lawyer to show up in court or at meetings on time anywhere without fail.

Claudia Goldin found one counterfactual that cancels out the gender wage gap amongst MBA professionals: hubby earns less! Female MBAs who’ve have a partner who earn less than them earn as much as the average MBA professional on an hourly basis but work a few less hours per week.

The gender wage gap is persisted in high-paying jobs because career women have so many options. They can mix and match career and motherhood in fine detail.

In low-paying jobs, there is little in the way of trade-offs other than full-time or part-time work. Low-paid jobs do not involve choosing majors at university, choosing careers, industries and employers that call for long hours and uninterrupted careers or not so long hours, fewer human capital and promotional penalties for time off and more work-life balance.

The choice hypothesis is the far better explanation for the persistence of the unadjusted gender wage gap in New Zealand, which is small by international standards.  As Polachek explains:

The gender wage gap for never marrieds is a mere 2.8%, compared with over 20% for marrieds. The gender wage gap for young workers is less than 5%, but about 25% for 55–64-year-old men and women.

If gender discrimination were the issue, one would need to explain why businesses pay single men and single women comparable salaries. The same applies to young men and young women. One would need to explain why businesses discriminate against older women, but not against younger women. If corporations discriminate by gender, why are these employers paying any groups of men and women roughly equal pay?

Why is there no discrimination against young single women, but large amounts of discrimination against older married women? … Each type of possible discrimination is inconsistent with negligible wage differences among single and younger employees compared with the large gap among married men and women (especially those with children, and even more so for those who space children widely apart)

The main drivers of the gender wage gap are unknown to employers such as whether the would-be recruit or employer is married, their partner is present, how many children they have, how many of these children are under 12, and how many years are there between the births of their children.

In countries such as Sweden, the gender wage gap is no better than the OECD average, despite generous maternity and paternity leave. The reason is obvious. You do not close the gender wage gap for professional women by paying them to stay out of the workforce for a year or more perhaps several times over at critical junctures early in their careers.

Long parental leave in Sweden is responsible for a thick Swedish glass ceiling because of lower levels of human capital investment among women and employers’ responses by placing fewer women in fast-track career. Extensive parental leave makes holding a job easier and more family-friendly, it may not be as effective as some might think in eradicating the gender gap for professional women.

Has the gender gap closed for graduates over the last generation? @greencatherine

Today’s women who are well-established in their careers in their 30s and 40s are doing better than their mothers who are also tertiary educated in terms of closing the gender wage gap. The gender wage gap in the chart below is unadjusted. It is the raw gender wage gap for women aged 35 to 44 and for women aged 55 to 64.

image

Source: Indicator A6 What are the earnings advantages from education? – Education at a Glance 2014 – OECD iLibrary.

In Canada and the USA there is been no progress at all. In New Zealand, the gender gap between male and female tertiary educated workers is a little larger for today’s prime age women graduates than for older female workers who completed a tertiary education.

I suspect that  gender gap be no smaller for today’s career women as compared to two decades ago has something to do with compensating differentials.

Today’s career women want it all: both motherhood and a career. They trade-off work-life balance for wages.

Women choose university degrees and occupations that are more agreeable to a balancing motherhood and a career.

Working poor in OECD member countries

Tertiary education premium by gender in the English-speaking countries, 2012

There are large differences in the education premium between English speaking countries and also by gender. The tertiary premium in New Zealand is pretty poor compared to the USA, UK or Ireland and is still mediocre when compared to Australia and Canada.

image

Source: Education at a Glance 2014.

There were massive reductions in black and Hispanic child poverty rates after 1996 US welfare reforms

The interesting part of this chart is the white child poverty rate didn’t change much after the US 1996 federal welfare reforms. It was black and Hispanic child poverty rates that dropped by 1/3rd.

Will high marginal tax rates and redistribution fix inequality?

Poverty traps in America

@BernieSanders had a seniors moment on the EITC

 

Image

Why isn’t everyone on a zero hours contract?

I was chatting with a friend in the pub the other night about the proliferation of contractors in New Zealand in the government sector. It was observed that many of them simply perform the jobs of employees and bring no special skills for them but are very expensive to hire. They are paid a premium because that they are supposedly hired on short notice for short periods of time to fill gaps. They are paid a premium for their availability and willingness to leave on short notice without fuss.

I had no experience of contractors in Australia. If a gap needed to be filled within an agency quickly, you went to a manager higher up the hierarchy. The decision was made then to reallocate through secondments staff from another part of the agency from an area that was less busy than normal at the moment. In the interim, staff are recruited to fill any gap that is anything more than short-term with the secondments filling the gap until the recruits arrive.

The conversation then turned to the issues as to why any employees are guaranteed a minimum number of hours or continuity of employment. Why isn’t everyone on a zero hours contract and only come in when they are needed and are paid accordingly.

The reason for long-term employment agreements with fixed hours and weekly wages irrespective of how busy the business is arises from the fixed costs of employment, and the costs of search and matching in the labour market.

The difference between zero hours contracts and permanent employment may be a overstated. Advance notice of work schedules is always known only to a minority of temporary and permanent employees in New Zealand. There is not much difference between that advance notice between temporary and in permanent employees.

Critics overplay their hand if they suggest that somehow workers a very much disadvantaged and employers are holding all the cardsJob turnover and recruitment problems are a serious cost to a business. Workers will not sign contracts, such as zero hours contracts or casual work contracts if they are not to their advantage.

The question that must always be asked is why do people who are deemed competent to vote and drive cars sign zero hours contract? What is in it for them? David Friedman asked this question about the economics of restraint of trade agreements for employees:

…the employer who insists on an employee signing a non- competition agreement will find that he must pay, in additional wages or other terms of employment, the cost that the agreement imposes upon the employee, as measured by the employee and revealed in his actions. It follows that the employer will insist on such an agreement only if he believes that its value to him is greater than its cost to the employee… The contract is designed, after all, with the objective of getting the other party to sign it. If I am designing the contract and offering it to many other parties, that may put me in a position to commit myself to insisting on terms that give me a large fraction of the benefit that the contract produces. But it is still in my interest to maximize the size of that net benefit-which I do by only insisting on terms that are worth at least as much to me as they cost the other party.

Critics overplay their hand if they suggest that somehow workers are very much disadvantaged and employers are holding all the cards. Job turnover and recruitment problems are a serious cost to a business. Workers will not sign zero hours contracts if they are not to their advantage.

Unless labour markets are highly uncompetitive with employers having massive power over employees, employers should have to pay a wage premium if zero-hour contracts are a hassle for workers.

The fixed costs of employment are such that you shouldn’t expect zero-hour contracts: you’ll typically do better with one 40-hour worker over two 20-hour workers because of these costs. Zero hour contracts would be most likely in jobs with low recruitment costs and where specialised training needs are low. Workers with low fixed costs of working will move into the zero-hour sector while those with higher fixed costs would prefer lower hourly rates but more guaranteed hours. Again, read lower here as meaning relative to what they could elsewhere earn.

Most workers, the majority of workers are on conventional employment agreements. They work five days a week, 40 hours a week for a fixed pay.

Anyone I know who decides to work as a contractor expects to be paid much more than a conventional employee. They command a large premium for not having certainty of hours and ongoing employment. The same goes for any job that is particularly risky, has unsocial hours or involves weekend work or anything else that departs from the standard working week. All these jobs command a wage premium.

Employers incur fixed costs of employment when they recruit and train new employees. These recruits must be expected to stay long enough to work sufficient hours for the firm to expect to recover these investments [Oi (1962, 1983a, 1990), Idson and Oi (1999), Hutchens (2010), Hutchens and Grace-Martin (2006)].

These costs are fixed costs because they do not vary with how many hours the employee works or with how long an employee stays with their employer. On-going supervision, office space and other overheads can increase with the number of employees, not the hours they work per week. These fixed employment costs must be recouped over the expected job tenure of the employee with the firm.

Employers will not hire an additional worker unless they anticipate recovering the costs of doing do including fixed employment costs and other overheads.

Hiring one more worker for 40 hours per week is cheaper than hiring two workers to work 20 hours per week each. These two part-timers would about double the recruitment and training costs to secure the same total additional supply of hours worked per week. Profits are a small share of the revenue earned on selling the output of each worker.

Zero hour contracts would be most likely in jobs with low recruitment costs and where specialised training needs are low. Workers with low fixed costs of working will move into the zero-hour sector while those with higher fixed costs would prefer lower hourly rates but more guaranteed hours. Again, read lower here as meaning relative to what they could elsewhere earn.

The literature on the economics of the fixed costs of work arose out of the economics of retirement and the economics of the labour supply of married women, and in particular of young mothers. This literature was attempting to explain why older workers, or young mothers either worked a minimum number of hours, or not at all.

Fixed costs of working constrain the choices that employees make about how many hours and days that are worthwhile working part-time. For employees, the fixed costs of going to work limit the numbers of days and number of hours per day that a worker is willing to work part-time. The timing costs of working at scheduled times and a fixed number of days per week can make working fewer full-time days, rather than fewer hours per day less disruptive to the leisure and other uses of personal time.

The fixed costs of working induced older workers to retire completely, and young mothers to withdraw from the workforce for extended periods of time, unless these workers worked either full-time or enough hours part-time each day and through the week to justify the costs of commuting and otherwise disrupting their day and week.

There are fixed costs to workers and employers finding each other as a suitable job match. They commit to a long-term relationship rather than risk that good job match dissolving and they are not able to recruit the fixed cost of initially finding such a good match.

Employers choose not to lay off workers during recessions because they want to retain their job specific human capital and recoup the fixed costs of employing them. If the employer lets them go in a downturn that is mild, they risk having to spend considerable money on finding our suitable replacement down the road.

It’s costly for employers to lose good employees. It’s equally costly for them to find good employees and quickly lose them again because they are unhappy or not as well-paid as elsewhere. There is much to be made on both sides of the employment relationship through long-term relationships. That’s why not everyone is on a zero-hours contract.

Zero hours contract doesn’t make it any cheaper for an employer to find a suitable recruit then train that recruit. A wage premium must be paid to induce the would-be recruit to prefer that working arrangement with no fixed hours over the others available to them including staying in their existing job.

Regulation of zero hours contracts will deny workers the option of higher wages by accepting uncertain hours. Hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders already work on employment agreements where there hours are not fixed but a variable on relatively short notice.

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