The War on Poverty at 50

The big drop .in both child poverty and poverty in general was after the 1996 welfare reforms.

via Chart Book: The War on Poverty at 50, Section 1 | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Black and Hispanic poverty dropped by a third after the 1996 US welfare reforms

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via The Top 3 Things You Need to Know About the 2013 Poverty and Income Data | Center for American Progress.

Child poverty and single parenthood

Employment and the risk of deep poverty in the USA

The average CEO in America earns about as much as the average dentist

What’s left of the welfare state after dastardly neoliberalism still lifts most out of poverty

How the welfare state reduces inequality

Full-time work on the minimum wage is enough to keep a NZ family out of poverty!

An OECD chart that shows New Zealand parents only need to work a little over 40 hours a week on the minimum wage to lift a family out of poverty in New Zealand.

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The figure above shows that a lone parent with two children needs to work about 25 hours a week stay out of poverty in 2013 in New Zealand Once taxes are taken into account as well as additional family benefits such as in-work tax credits. New Zealand is one of the easiest places in the world to get out of poverty by working part-time for a sole mother.

The figure above from the OECD shows that New Zealand couple with two children needs to work about 40 hours a week to stay out of poverty. Of course, what is poverty depends on the definition of the poverty line and in this case by the OECD, it is defined as 50% of the median wage after taxes and family benefits. Another common definition of poverty is earning less than 60% of the median wage

The minimum wage is $14.75 per hour in New Zealand while proposals for a living wage in New Zealand are now $19.25 an hour. The Labour Party wants to increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour.The Greens want to increase the minimum wage to the living wage.

Simon Chapple and Jonathan Boston pointed out in their excellent book last year on child poverty in New Zealand that full-time work by one parent and part-time work by the other in the same household is enough to lift families out of most  definitions of poverty:

Sustained full-time employment of sole parents and the fulltime and part-time employment of two parents, even at low wages, are sufficient to pull the majority of children above most poverty lines, given the various existing tax credits and family supports.

The best available analysis, the most credible analysis, the most independent analysis in New Zealand or anywhere else in the world that having a job and marrying the father of your child is the secret to the leaving poverty is recently by the Living Wage movement in New Zealand.

According to the calculations of the Living Wage movement, earning only $19.25 per hour with a second earner working only 20 hours affords their two children, including a teenager, Sky TV, pets, international travel, video games and 10 hours childcare. This analysis of the Living Wage movement shows that finishing school so your job pays something reasonable and marrying the father of your child affords a comfortable family life.

The OECD’s analysis also showed that incentives for New Zealanders to work more and earn more is better than in most countries in terms of what happens if they earn a wage increase.

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In New Zealand, when there is a 5% minimum wage increase, four percentage points  of that wage increase actually stays in the hands of the worker.

In some countries such as Australia, the USA  and UK, 60 to 80%of the minimum wage increase is gobbled up in reductions in benefits and taxes. At the same time, the minimum wage increase makes it less profitable for your employer to retain you so your job is more at risk.

The only explanation I have for why the Labour Party, NZ Greens and the living wage movement don’t highlight the success of the existing minimum wage in reducing family poverty in New Zealand is mass kidnappings.

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But for these abductions most fowl, I’m sure the Labour Party,  NZ  Greens and the living wage movement would be dancing in the street celebrating successes of capitalism and freedom in New Zealand in keeping families out of poverty through the minimum wage.

Income mobility in America

Down and out in NZ = social housing with fast broadband

The Dominion Post had a front page story yesterday about an 80-year-old pensioner required to pay for fast broadband in her new social housing. Her new apartment happens to be in my same suburb. I can see the new apartments from my window as I type.

She didn’t have much use for this fast broadband, which cost an extra $20 a month, because she is legally blind. She cannot have a landline-only option because of the way her apartment is wired and the way in which fast broadband works.

The 27 flats have been fitted with fibre-optic cabling, and residents, many of whom are pensioners or have disabilities, cannot opt for a landline-only service.

National building standards require new apartments to be wired with fast broadband. A classic example of the inability of central planning to deal with the diversity of preferences and incomes.

In this case, the victim of central planning it is an old age pensioners obviously in poor circumstances as well as legally blind who is out of pocket. She is one of a number of old age pensioners who are similarly out-of-pocket when they living on a strictly limited budget.

The mass kidnapping of Occupy activists has extended to New Zealand

Mass kidnappings is the only reason why the Occupy activists are not dancing seen in the streets to celebrate the steady fall of poverty in New Zealand over the last 20 years but for the hick-up of the GFC.

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via Population with low incomes.

Would a living wage reduce poverty in America?

How to argue for welfare reform when sincerely arguing against the 1996 US Federal welfare reforms

The share of single mothers without a high school degree with earnings rose from 49 percent to 64 percent between 1995 and 2000 but has since fallen or remained constant almost every year since then. At 55 percent, it’s now just slightly above its level in 1997, the first full year of welfare reform (see first graph).

TANF now serves only 25 of every 100 families with children that live below the poverty line, down from AFDC’s 68 of every 100 such families before the welfare law

Over the last 18 years, the national TANF average monthly caseload has fallen by almost two-thirds — from 4.7 million families in 1996 to 1.7 million families in 2013 — even as poverty and deep poverty have worsened.

The number of families with children in poverty hit a low of 5.2 million in 2000, but has since increased to more than 7 million. Similarly, the number of families with children in deep poverty (with incomes below half of the poverty line) hit a low of about 2 million in 2000, but is now above 3 million.

The employment situation for never-married mothers with a high school or less education — the group of mothers most affected by welfare reform — has changed dramatically over the last several decades.

In the early 1990’s, when states first made major changes to their cash welfare programs, only about half of these mothers worked.

Importantly, there was a very large employment gap between the share of these never-married mothers and single women without children with similar levels of education, suggesting that there was substantial room for these never-married mothers to increase their participation in the labour force.

By 2000, the employment gap between these two groups of women closed, and it has remained so. But in the years since, the employment rate for both groups has fallen considerably.

The employment rate for never-married mothers is now about the same as when welfare reform was enacted 18 years ago. This suggests that the economy and low education levels are now the causes of limited employment among never-married mothers — not the availability of public benefits or anything particular to never-married mothers.

The Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities, who hail clearly from the Left of American politics, scrupulously documented the following:

  • Big gains in the employment of single mothers until a setback in the Great Recession but is still much better than in 1996;
  • Welfare dependency dropped by two thirds;
  • Despite this two third drop in welfare dependency, and earnest predictions of acute poverty and deprivation made in 1996, the number of families in deep poverty has not changed, and the number of families in poverty fell significantly and only rose again with the Great Recession; and
  • There was a dramatic increase in the percentage of never married mothers in employment, so much so that there is no difference in the employment rate of single women with no children and never married mothers!

Welfare dependency down by two thirds, employment of never married mothers up to levels no one thought possible, family poverty down, and economic independence is much more widespread and all because of the 1996 US Federal welfare reforms. That sounds like success to me – a great success.

via Chart Book: TANF at 18 | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

The changing American family

ednext_XV_2_mclanahan_fig01-small

ednext_XV_2_mclanahan_fig02-small

via Was Moynihan Right? What happens to the children of unmarried mothers : Education Next

The war on poverty at age 50: What US social programs worked and which failed? – Chris Blattman

Via The war on poverty at age 50: What US social programs worked and which failed? – Chris Blattman.

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