How we connect economically with the world is critical. Brian Easton writes – The British Labour Government is struggling. Partly it is because they were badly prepared in opposition: the Conservative Government was making such a charlie of itself that Labour expected that it would do better and gave little thought as to how it […]
Lessons from Brexit
Lessons from Brexit
19 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, economic growth, international economic law, international economics, macroeconomics Tags: British politics, economics of customs unions, free trade, tariffs
Europe’s Grim Fiscal Future
16 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, public economics Tags: ageing society, European Union, population bust
If you want to know why I’m pessimistic about Europe (particularly compared to the U.S.), this chart is a good example. It shows that many European nations have enormous long-run liabilities for their Social Security systems. It’s an understatement to observe that Spain, Austria, and Italy have very grim fiscal futures. Keep in mind that […]
Europe’s Grim Fiscal Future
Demographic Decline, Part I: Baby Subsidies Are an Ineffective Response
15 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics, urban economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
I have a five-part series (here, here, here, here, and here) explaining that demographic decline will lead to fiscal crisis. The main takeaway is that entitlement programs are a ticking time bomb, and I castigate politicians who want to kick the can down the road (or make a bad situation even worse). This is a global problem, not merely an American problem, as […]
Demographic Decline, Part I: Baby Subsidies Are an Ineffective Response
Defending Nicola, and critiquing her
11 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand
Media have reported that there may be a debate between Nicola Willis and Ruth Richardson over fiscal policy. I thought it would be useful to lay out what I see as the key fiscal problem, and put context around it. Now I’m not unbiased here. Nicola I regard as a long standing friend. We were…
Defending Nicola, and critiquing her
The state of the books
11 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics
Eric Crampton writes – StatsNZ has put up its year-end accounts for the government, split out across functional areas. Their data goes back to 2009 in the main table; I’m sure earlier data’s available somewhere in Infoshare. But sticking with the Excel sheet they’ve provided, we can lob in June-year population statistics and June quarter […]
The state of the books
Three Nobel lectures in economic science
11 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, history of economic thought, macroeconomics
The post Three Nobel lectures in economic science appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Three Nobel lectures in economic science
Productivity growth (or lack of it)
10 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand
In a post last week I included this chart of the latest annual OECD data on labour productivity, expressed in PPP terms. It was grim, in a familiar sort of way. New Zealand’s overall economic performance has long been poor (the halcyon days when New Zealand was in the top 3 in the world relegated […]
Productivity growth (or lack of it)
Germany’s Accelerating Fiscal and Economic Decline
09 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: ageing society, Germany
A lot has happened if you look at the past 100 years of German economic policy. Hyperinflation leading to Hitler’s National Socialists taking power. An impressive free-market revival after World War II. A growing welfare state after the imposition of a value-added tax in the 1960s. Some semi-impressive spending restraint starting in the mid-1990s. Very […]
Germany’s Accelerating Fiscal and Economic Decline
Political pressure on the Fed
05 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
From a forthcoming paper by Thomas Drechsel: This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political…
Political pressure on the Fed
The taxing problem of zombie and phoenix companies
04 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of bureaucracy, economics of crime, fiscal policy, law and economics, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: Germany
Eric Crampton writes – Damien Grant isn’t normally the one making the case that the government needs to take more in tax. The liquidator and libertarian-minded columnist at the Sunday Star Times more typically wants what libertarians generally want – a government that spends less and that can let each of us keep more of […]
The taxing problem of zombie and phoenix companies
The Sensible Swiss Strike Again, Overwhelmingly Rejecting Class Warfare
03 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: Switzerland, taxation and investment
Congratulations to Switzerland, the “improbable success” that is home to the world’s most sensible voters. The left put a referendum on the ballot to impose a national death tax and the people of Switzerland overwhelmingly voted against the class warfare initiative. Every single canton in every single region voted no. More than 90 percent of […]
The Sensible Swiss Strike Again, Overwhelmingly Rejecting Class Warfare
Japan’s Growing Burden of Government Means an Inevitable Fiscal Crisis
03 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
I often get asked when the United States will suffer a Greek-style fiscal crisis. My answer is always “I don’t know,” though I freely admit we are heading in that direction. My lack of specificity isn’t merely because economists are lousy forecasters. I tell people it’s all about investor sentiment, and it’s hard to know […]
Japan’s Growing Burden of Government Means an Inevitable Fiscal Crisis
Treasury on tax
27 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, public economics Tags: taxation and investment
I’ve never really been persuaded that it is a good idea for public servants to be giving speeches, unless perhaps they are simply and explicitly explaining or articulating government policy. If they are, instead, purporting to run their own views or those of their agency it is almost inevitable that we will be getting less […]
Treasury on tax
The Milei Miracle, Part III
25 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, economic growth, economics of regulation, fiscal policy, growth disasters, labour economics, labour supply, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, unemployment Tags: Argentina
I’m still riding high after Javier Milei’s political party won a landslide in last month’s mid-term elections in Argentina. And I’m very much hoping and expecting that gives him enough legislative support to enact big reforms next year to further liberate the Argentinian economy (tax reform, free trade, and labor market liberalization). But let’s take […]
The Milei Miracle, Part III
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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