As expected, I really enjoyed the Institute for Liberal Studies’ UBI debate between myself and Chris Freiman. Chris was definitely the least enthusiastic UBI supporter I’ve debated. All the way to the point of, “Given all the truly promising ideas we have, and the downside risks of the UBI, perhaps I shouldn’t even publicly defend…
Universal Basic Income: The Freiman-Caplan Debate
Universal Basic Income: The Freiman-Caplan Debate
27 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, fiscal policy, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice Tags: child poverty, family poverty, negative income tax
NZ’s problem is too much spending, not a lack of tax
26 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, public economics
Labour and Greens in 2017 campaigned on capping core crown expenditure at no more than 30% of GDP. This was their election pledge. At one Budget I asked Grant Robertson about the policy and he (admirably) replied it was a limit, not a target. The latest forecast had expenditure at 33.4% of GDP. That 3.4% […]
NZ’s problem is too much spending, not a lack of tax
How credible is the Milei plan?
24 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, economic growth, financial economics, fiscal policy, growth disasters, income redistribution, international economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: Argentina
Here is a good Substack essay by Nicolas Cachanosky, excerpt: Inflation expectations depend on what is expected to happen to the budget in the months to come. It is natural, then, to ask whether the observed surpluses are sustainable in the months ahead. Answering this question requires looking at two things. First, how was the fiscal […]
How credible is the Milei plan?
Eat the Rich: Warren Plan Would Impose Wealth Tax, Captivity Tax, and $100 Billion for Increasing Tax Audits
23 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, economic growth, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
The wealth tax is back. We have previously discussed the constitutional and policy concerns surrounding the push by Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to introduce a wealth tax that would start with billionaires. It would not likely end there. The law would also apply the same type of California approach to wealthy families […]
Eat the Rich: Warren Plan Would Impose Wealth Tax, Captivity Tax, and $100 Billion for Increasing Tax Audits
CALLUM PURVES: National preparing to keep Labour’s 15% App Tax
03 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, public economics
Labour’s App Tax is a 15% sales tax paid for by the mum and dad accommodation providers, takeaway joints, and ride share drivers. The App Tax hits sole-traders who sell their services through an app or website such as Uber or Airbnb. It will add even more to the costs of living for every Kiwi…
CALLUM PURVES: National preparing to keep Labour’s 15% App Tax
Labour’s legacy
01 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in economic growth, economics of bureaucracy, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics
This kind of macro theory is underrated
01 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, job search and matching, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: real business cycle theory
Demand shocks as technology shocks: We provide a macroeconomic theory where demand for goods has a productive role. A search friction prevents perfect matching between producers and potential customers. Larger demand induces more search, which in turn increases GDP and measured TFP. We embed the product-market friction in a standard neoclassical model and estimate it […]
This kind of macro theory is underrated
Florida’s One-Man Laffer Curve
16 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
Inflation is having an effect on everything, even policy analysis. Back in 2013, I wrote that Phil Mickelson was “California’s One-Man Laffer Curve” because he wanted to escape the Golden State to save about $1.2 million per year in taxes. But now, when a goose that lays golden eggs wants to escape, the numbers are […]
Florida’s One-Man Laffer Curve
The Conway speech
08 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
I’ve been rather tied up with other stuff for the last few weeks (including here) which is why I’ve not previously gotten round to writing about the first piece of monetary policy communications from our Reserve Bank this year. That was the “speech” by the Bank’s chief economist (and MPC) member Paul Conway given to […]
The Conway speech
The Euro at 25
03 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, currency unions, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, Public Choice Tags: Euro
The euro technically started in 1999, when the 11 founding European members of the currency agreed to keep their exchange rates fixed and to hand over monetary policy to the European Central Bank. The euro then became the actual currency that people and firms used in 2002. I confess that, back in the early 1990s,…
The Euro at 25
Will Milei succeed in Argentina?
22 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, fiscal policy, growth disasters, income redistribution, labour economics, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, monetary economics, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: Argentina
I give him a 30-40% chance, which is perhaps generous because I am rooting for him. Bryan Caplan, who is more optimistic, offers some analysis and estimates that Milei needs to close a fiscal gap of about five percent of gdp. I have two major worries. First, if Milei approaches fiscal success, the opposing parties […]
Will Milei succeed in Argentina?
Mattei Misjudges Hawtrey
15 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics
Clara Mattei, associate professor of economics at the New School for Social Research, recently published a book, The Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism, (University of Chicago Press) in which she argues that the fiscal and monetary austerity imposed on Great Britain after World War I to restore the […]
Mattei Misjudges Hawtrey
40 years on
08 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, international economics, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand
Pension crisis
06 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics Tags: ageing society
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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