Milton Friedman used to advise researchers to focus on large policy changes rather than attempting to separate a small change’s signal from the noise. In this sense, the “ambitious” policy agenda of the Biden-Harris administration was expected to be a gift to the research community. Accepting this gift, since 2020 I have been making forecasts…
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
30 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, financial economics, fiscal policy, global warming, health economics, income redistribution, industrial organisation, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2024 presidential election, drug lags, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
Canada Is Part of the Anti-Convergence Club
01 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, comparative institutional analysis, economic growth, economic history, economics of regulation, environmental economics, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, macroeconomics, property rights Tags: Canada
Economists widely agree with the theory of “convergence,” which is the (mostly true) idea that poor nations should grow faster than rich nations as they catch up (converge). But there are exceptions. Sometimes a richer country will grow faster than a poorer country over a significant period of time, and we can learn from these examples. This is […]
Canada Is Part of the Anti-Convergence Club
Another zero lower bound prediction bites the dust
28 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, public economics, unemployment Tags: New Keynesian macroeconomics
Popular New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that cuts in various types of distortionary taxes are contractionary when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound. We turn to a long span of history in the United Kingdom to test this hypothesis. Using a new long-run dataset of narrative-identified tax changes from 1918to 2020, we […]
Another zero lower bound prediction bites the dust
Proof that NZ’s Reserve Bank has Inflicted Unnecessary Pain up and down the Nation.
27 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, unemployment Tags: economics of pandemics, monetary policy
In the past few hours, it has been stated that the US economy grew at a solid 3% rate last quarter, as given in the American government’s final estimate. New Zealand’s economy, on the other hand, shrank at a rate of -0.2%. The US Federal Funds rate (the equivalent of NZ’s Official Cash Rate, OCR)…
Proof that NZ’s Reserve Bank has Inflicted Unnecessary Pain up and down the Nation.
Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy
27 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, fiscal policy, health and safety, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, macroeconomics, occupational choice, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, property rights, Public Choice, public economics Tags: envy, regressive left, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
On tax policy, our friends on the left are motivated by envy and hatred. As shown in this Stossel video, Robert Reich is a sad example of this mindset. John Stossel understates his argument. It’s not that Reich is wrong. He’s wildly wrong. There are four points in the video that deserve attention. It is […]
Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy
The Economic Consequences of the French Wealth Tax
17 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, occupational choice, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
By Eric Pichet, here is the abstract: Despite attempts to ‘unwind’ the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (‘Solidarity Wealth Tax,’ the French wealth tax) during the last legislature (2002-2007), ISF yields had soared by 2006, jumping from €2.5 billion in 2002 to €3.6 billion. Analysis of the economic consequences of this ISF wealth tax […]
The Economic Consequences of the French Wealth Tax
Tax-Motivated Domestic Migration
17 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, entrepreneurship, Federalism, fiscal policy, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, occupational choice, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics Tags: capital gains tax, taxation and investment taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and labour supply
I’m a big fan of tax competition. I cheer when jobs, investment, and people (or even booze) move from high-tax jurisdictions to low-tax jurisdictions. This increases the rewards for good policy and also increases the punishment for bad policy. Given my interest in the topic, I obviously can’t resist sharing this chart, which shows the […]
Tax-Motivated Domestic Migration
The Santa Claus Election
15 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, economic growth, economics of education, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, health and safety, income redistribution, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA, Public Choice, public economics, unions Tags: 2024 presidential election, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
For libertarians, this is a very depressing election (a feeling we tend to have every four years, so a familiar experience). What basically happens is that two politicians try to bribe us with our own money. This year, we have Kamala Harris, who was even worse than Bernie Sanders in the big-spender contest. And we […]
The Santa Claus Election
Recovering from New Zealand’s worst ever economic decision: The cancellation of the Kirk Government’s superannuation scheme
08 Sep 2024 1 Comment
in economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics
EEconomists wonder about the “New Zealand paradox”, which is that New Zealand under-performs economically given its policies, institutions, natural resources, educated people, and compliance with trade and other multi-lateral agreements. Our economic reforms from the mid-1980s and on were textbook economic theory and yet the real-world results disappointed. However, New Zealand has different policy settings […]
Recovering from New Zealand’s worst ever economic decision: The cancellation of the Kirk Government’s superannuation scheme
Interview with Greg Mankiw: New Keynesian Macro, Growth, and Economic Policy
04 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, Edward Prescott, fiscal policy, great depression, history of economic thought, labour economics, law and economics, macroeconomics, Milton Friedman, monetarism, monetary economics, politics - USA, Public Choice, Robert E. Lucas, unemployment
Jon Hartley interviews Greg Mankiw on topics including New Keynesian macroeconomics, growth, and economic policy more broadly at his Capitalism and Freedom website (August 20, 2024, video and transcript available). Here are a few of the comments that caught my eye. On big models and small models in studying the macroeconomy: [O]n the issue of…
Interview with Greg Mankiw: New Keynesian Macro, Growth, and Economic Policy
Fiscal and monetary policy
27 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
Over the last few years, The Treasury seems to have been toying with bidding for a more significant role for fiscal policy as a countercyclical stabilisation tool It seemed to start when Covid hubris still held sway – didn’t we do well? – and the first we saw of it in public was at a […]
Fiscal and monetary policy
Minnesota’s Failed Class-Warfare Tax Policy
11 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
Writing about Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan in 2012, I opined that, “…it probably means nothing. I don’t think there’s been an election in my lifetime that was impacted by the second person on a presidential ticket.” I feel the same way about Tim Walz, who is Kamala Harris’ pick for Vice President. But […]
Minnesota’s Failed Class-Warfare Tax Policy
Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU
28 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
I picked up The Post this morning to find the lead story headlined “Recession hits homes harder than businesses”, reporting a speech given earlier this week by Treasury’s deputy secretary and chief economic adviser Dominick Stephens. There was an account of the same speech, but with some different material, on BusinessDesk a couple of days […]
Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU
Current state of knowledge on the Trump tax cuts
25 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - USA, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column. Here is one summary excerpt: One result: Total tangible corporate investment went up by about 11%. That has been a welcome shot in the arm for an economy that was by some measures suffering from an investment drought. The strong state of the Biden economy may, in…
Current state of knowledge on the Trump tax cuts
Treasury wanting to use fiscal policy more
23 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, public economics Tags: monetary policy
Government departments are now all required by law to write and publish a Long-term Insights Briefing at least every three years. and they have to consult the public on both choice of topic and the draft report The Public Service Commission gives its take on these provisions here Count me more than a little sceptical. […]
Treasury wanting to use fiscal policy more
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
Recent Comments