The Herald reports: A new Treasury paper has criticised the last Government for overspending during the pandemic, leaving the country with a high level of public debt that makes it vulnerable to future shocks. The paper calculated the total cost of the pandemic at about $66 billion. It put the total fiscal contribution to the […]
Treasury states what we all knew
Treasury states what we all knew
14 Aug 2025 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, health economics, income redistribution, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics Tags: economics of pandemics
A Small But Important Victory for Taxpayers
05 Aug 2025 1 Comment
in economics of bureaucracy, fiscal policy, politics - USA, Public Choice
Regular readers know I’m not a Trumpie. Some of his policies are terrible (protectionism), while others are irresponsible (punting on entitlements) or misguided (new tax loopholes). But I have to give credit where credit is due. Unlike every other Republican president over the past six decades – including the great Ronald Reagan – Donald Trump […]
A Small But Important Victory for Taxpayers
The Laffer Curve Triumphs Again: Class Warfare in the United Kingdom Backfires
02 Aug 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, public economics Tags: taxation and investment
The Laffer Curve provides incredibly important insights about tax policy. Most important, it informs us that you don’t measure the revenue impact of tax policy changes merely by looking at what is happening to tax rates. You also have to consider whether changes in tax rates will alter incentives to earn and report income. Or, […]
The Laffer Curve Triumphs Again: Class Warfare in the United Kingdom Backfires
Partisan Bias in Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts
27 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, macroeconomics, politics - USA Tags: forecasting errors
Here is a recent paper by Benjamin S. Kay, Aeimit Lakdawala, and Jane Ryngaert: Using a novel dataset linking professional forecasters in the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey to their political affiliations, we document a partisan bias in GDP growth forecasts. Republican-affiliated forecasters project 0.3-0.4 percentage points higher growth when Republicans hold the presidency, […]
Partisan Bias in Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts
Should Catalonia receive more financial independence?
26 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, development economics, Federalism, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: Spain
Jesús details how Spain already operates one of the most decentralized fiscal systems in the world, “more latitude than most U.S. states,” he notes, yet Catalonia now seeks the bespoke privileges long enjoyed by the Basque Country and Navarra. The Regional Authority Index rates how much self‑rule and shared rule each country’s sub‑national governments actually wield. In its last […]
Should Catalonia receive more financial independence?
The Milei Miracle, Part II
23 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, economic growth, fiscal policy, growth disasters, growth miracles, law and economics, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, property rights Tags: Argentina
I almost feel sorry for the 108 leftist economists who predicted back in 2023 that Argentina would suffer if Javier Milei won the presidential election. Not only were they disappointed when he enjoyed a landslide victory, but the subsequent events in Argentina have shown that they were wildly wrong (all of which is discussed in […]
The Milei Miracle, Part II
The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal (due to the resource curse)
18 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth disasters, international economics, law and economics, macroeconomics, property rights, Public Choice, rentseeking, resource economics Tags: Portugal, resources curse
By Davis Kedrosky and Nuno Palma. Published in The Journal of Economic History.In the book The Economics of Macro Issues which I used as a supplemental text, they mention that Russia has many resources but its per capita income is less than that of Luxembourg which has few resources. The book suggests that the economic…
The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal (due to the resource curse)
Govt fiscal constraints are the elephant in the pay equity room
11 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, fiscal policy, gender, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: gender wage gap, pay equity, sex discrimination
Michael Johnston writes – The way the government went about rolling back 33 pay equity claims lodged under the last government’s Pay Equity legislation was clumsy at best. The changes were made under urgency and applied retrospectively. It was not a good look. Predictable howls of rage and furious accusations ensued. Critics say the government […]
Govt fiscal constraints are the elephant in the pay equity room
The Weird and Lovely Surge of US Productivity Growth
04 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA
In the long run, a rising standard of living is always and everywhere based on productivity growth. Thus, Austan Goolsbee notedin a keynote address at the “Summit” conference held at the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) in February (“Remarks on Productivity Growth and Monetary Policy,” February 28, 2025): As Goolsbee notes, annual productivity…
The Weird and Lovely Surge of US Productivity Growth
‘Outright Massacre’: Senate GOP Takes Sledgehammer To Biden’s Green Energy Subsidies
30 Jun 2025 1 Comment
in economics of climate change, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, fiscal policy, global warming Tags: solar power, wind power
The Senate dealt a series of blows to solar and wind energy in the latest version of President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill — taking a page out of House Republicans’ playbook to crack down on green energy tax credits enacted under former President Joe Biden.
‘Outright Massacre’: Senate GOP Takes Sledgehammer To Biden’s Green Energy Subsidies
Greg Mankiw on Modern Monetary Theory
30 Jun 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economics of education, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: cranks, monetary policy
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) had a real moment in the spotlight in the late 2010s, with political support in the US from Presidential hopefuls Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. However, mainstream economists mostly didn’t understand it, or ridiculed it, or both. I mostly ignored the detail of it, only picking up what I knew about it from…
Greg Mankiw on Modern Monetary Theory
Slowly Strangling the Death Tax
23 Jun 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, economic growth, macroeconomics, politics - USA, Public Choice, public economics Tags: death taxes, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and savings
Back in 2013, I debated Joe Biden’s top economist on the death tax. Everything I said then (and wrote four years before then) is still true today. In the interview, I mentioned nations that have abolished their death taxes, including Australia. I should have mentioned Sweden as well. As a general rule, I don’t want […]
Slowly Strangling the Death Tax
Markets are forward-looking
18 Jun 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, defence economics, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, macroeconomics, market efficiency, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: efficient markets hypothesis, World War II
LPL Financial analyzed 25 major geopolitical episodes, dating back to Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. “Total drawdowns around these events have been fairly limited,” Jeff Buchbinder, LPL’s chief equity strategist, wrote in a research note on Monday. (Full recoveries often “take only a few weeks to a couple of months,” he added.) Deutsche Bank analysts […]
Markets are forward-looking
How New Zealand invented inflation targeting
13 Jun 2025 1 Comment
in business cycles, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
…the very next day, [Roger] Douglas appeared on TV declaring his intention to reduce inflation to ‘around 0 or 0 to 1 percent’ over the next couple of years, and then went on to make several similar comments in the following days. Douglas would soften his stance on specific timelines but ask the Reserve Bank and […]
How New Zealand invented inflation targeting
The Orr story (well, part of it anyway)
11 Jun 2025 Leave a comment
in economics of bureaucracy, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
Months after various OIAs had been lodged on the question of Adrian Orr’s sudden departure on 5 March, we finally got a partial dump of documents this morning. (Sufficiently mishandled that at 10:04 this morning they’d send an email to OIA requesters saying they’d email out the response at 10:45 and then have it on […]
The Orr story (well, part of it anyway)
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