The 2012 race was even crazier. GOP voters flirted seriously with nearly every other candidate before finally settling on Romney.

via What Can We Learn From National Primary Polling? Virtually Nothing. – Reason.com.
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
22 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election, expressive voting, opinion polling, rational ignorance, rational rationality, voter demographics
The 2012 race was even crazier. GOP voters flirted seriously with nearly every other candidate before finally settling on Romney.

via What Can We Learn From National Primary Polling? Virtually Nothing. – Reason.com.
22 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in applied price theory, constitutional political economy, economics of information, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, economics of advertising, Eric Crampton, expressive voting, false consciousness, Leftover Left, median voter theorem, New Zealand Greens, New Zealand Labour Party, rational ignorance, rational rationality
Rob Salmond has written a great blog this week on the ideological spectrum of New Zealand voters based on the New Zealand Election Study.

In the course of his blog he drove a tremendously big stake through the heart of the old left fantasy that if Labour or Greens goes left, a large block of voters not voting for them now or not voting at all (the missing million voters) will shake lose its false consciousness and follow you:
But “pulling the centre back towards the left” is massively, massively hard.
You win those people over by being relevant to them as they are, not by telling them they’re worldview needs a rethink. It is just basic psychology. Tell people they were right all along; they like you. Tell people they were wrong all along; they don’t.
And if you win a majority of centrists, you win. The New Zealand Election Study series records six MMP elections in New Zealand – the three where Labour did best among centrists were the three Labour won.
That’s another message from the academic study I quoted above – in Germany, Sweden, and the UK, the elections where the left did best among centrists were the elections where they took power. As their popularity among centrists declined, so did their seat share.
What is more disturbing for the old left fantasy of the missing million is voting for the Labour Party or Greens is correlated with ignorance rather than knowledge.
Furthermore, the more people know about economics, the less likely they are to vote for the left as Eric Crampton explains:
When they get to the polls, the ignorant are significantly more likely to support the Labour Party (4% increase in predicted probability for a standard deviation increase in ignorance) and significantly less likely to support the Green party (1% decrease in predicted probability) and United Future (0.5% decrease in predicted probability).
Understanding economics strongly predicted supporting National in 2005, which comes as little surprise: the National Party leader was former Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. A standard deviation increase in our “economic thinking” index correlates with a 5.7% increased probability of voting National, a 1.5% decreased probability of voting NZ First, and a slight decrease in the probability of voting United Future and Maori.
To make matters worse, Crampton found that joining political organisations does little to cure ignorance of politics or otherwise lead to a political awakening. Sometimes active political affiliation reduces ignorance, other times such organisational membership intensifies ignorance.
via Salmond on the centre | Kiwiblog and StephenFranks.co.nz » Blog Archive » Why the left wants everyone to vote.
21 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
The U.S. places a high #tax on corporate income: tax.foundation/1Jf0ytp http://t.co/6inEfqftpQ—
Tax Foundation (@taxfoundation) August 18, 2015
The U.S. has the highest corporate income #tax rate in the developed world: tax.foundation/1WlGhIf http://t.co/Cp35sRwHjo—
Tax Foundation (@taxfoundation) August 13, 2015
The U.S. corporate #tax rate is out of line with our trading partners: tax.foundation/1UO4gy5 http://t.co/FzWDDTNrvC—
Tax Foundation (@taxfoundation) August 17, 2015
21 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in constitutional political economy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: British general election, British politics, Leftover Left
If you think equality and fairness in Britain is important you should do this: labour.tw/1MH6f4M http://t.co/7gCDkX7fj5—
The Labour Party (@UKLabour) August 06, 2015
Jeremy Corbyn had 30 years to split from the Labour Party, which he voted against 25% of the time, establish his own party and receive the same reception presumably he would have got without needing to have to run for leader of the Labour Party.
Conservatism and nationalism destroy the Labour Party nickcohen.net/2015/06/02/con… http://t.co/ue0XzXTEFo—
Nick Cohen (@NickCohen4) June 02, 2015
The reasoning Corbyn never split from the Labour Party, and the reason why the left never splits from the Labour Party, is the left knows that it would get far fewer votes on its own rather than piggybacking on the right wing of that party.
The right split from the British Labour Party in the early 1980s to form the Social Democratic party. The right-wing split from the Australian Labor Party at least four times over its history.
The left is never split from the New Zealand Labour Party because it knows that it could never get anywhere even under proportional representation without the image of being part of the traditional Labour Party, centre-left, social democratic, not socialist. Jeremy Corbyn and the rest of the left of British Labour are practising mild mannered entryism. By stealing the brand of the Labour Party, the left obtains far more power than it ever could standing on its own two feet as true believers.
Our vision is of an economy that works for all, provides opportunity for all and invests in all. #jeremy4leader http://t.co/59Gk9AN7Xf—
JeremyCorbyn4Leader (@Corbyn4Leader) July 22, 2015
The working hypothesis of the far left everywhere is if the Labour Party were to adopt hard left policies is many more votes.
Fabulous scenes wherever we go, but this picture of the Opera House in Newcastle is quite something. #voteCorbyn http://t.co/GzB96CjB7d—
JeremyCorbyn4Leader (@Corbyn4Leader) August 18, 2015
Labour would win many more votes because the offer of a genuine socialist alternative would shake voters loose of their false consciousness.

The left of the Labour Party never went out on its own to test that hypothesis because they knew in their hearts be lucky to not to lose their deposits.

This is despite the strong rise in third parties in British politics despite first past the post.

The remnants of the communist parties do well at elections in countries such as France, Germany (Linke or Left Party) and Japan and are in government in Greece.

The right wing of the Labour Party was willing to take its chances under first past the post voting in the House of Commons because it knew that a large part the electorate would vote for it in preference to the remnant of a left-wing run Labour Party.
The combination of these splitters from the British Labour Party and the Liberal party won 25% of the vote, two percentage points behind the British Labour Party.
21 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, economic history, economics of information, economics of media and culture, growth miracles, liberalism, Public Choice Tags: Bryan Caplan, capitalism and freedom, makework bias, The Great Enrichment, The Great Escape, The Great Fact
21 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, health economics, international economics, labour economics, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: antiforeign bias, antimarket bias, expressive voting, Greenpeace, Leftover Left, make-work bias, methodology of economics, New Zealand Greens, New Zealand Labour Party, rational ignorance, rational irrationality
Quotation of the Day from French Economist Frederic Bastiat in the 1850s http://t.co/2ECWtb6m9u—
Mark J. Perry (@Mark_J_Perry) August 14, 2015
20 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, rentseeking, sports economics Tags: expressive voting, Left-wing hypocrisy, Leftover Left, mass kidnappings, Occupy Wall Street, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, superstar wages, superstars, top 0.1%, top 1%
Ratio of Median Salary of Top 25 Highest Paid MLB Player to Avg. Worker Pay Increased from 100:1 to 700:1 Since 1988 http://t.co/5zLktBXS3D—
Mark J. Perry (@Mark_J_Perry) August 18, 2015
20 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, economics of bureaucracy, income redistribution, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: antiforeign bias, antimarket bias, bootleggers and baptists, green rent seeking, Henry Hazlett, makework bias, methodology of economics, philosophy of economics
19 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, economic history, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: age of empires, British empire, British imperialism, colonialism, imperialism
A map showing the depth and breadth of European colonization 1500-1900: thesocietypages.org/socimages/2015… http://t.co/37234ZzDfj—
(@SocImages) March 21, 2015
19 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, constitutional political economy, economics of regulation, Public Choice Tags: competition for political influence, gun control, lobby groups, median voter theorem, rational ignorance, special interests, voter demographics
What does U.S. gun ownership really look like? Load up with #PollPosition’s @Johnnydontlike: bit.ly/1y2EMjX http://t.co/fn5EpM75U7—
(@PJTV) March 25, 2015


19 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, Public Choice Tags: size of government
19 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of media and culture, Public Choice Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, expressive voting, Leftover Left, rational irrationality
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/631585303631921152
https://twitter.com/TheBigBlueBear6/status/633743084430344192
19 Aug 2015 2 Comments
in economics of bureaucracy, economics of education, human capital, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: British economy, Canada, compensating differentials, job shopping, offsetting behaviour, on-the-job training, search and matching, The fatal conceit, The pretense to knowledge
In the UK, foreign-born are much more likely to be over qualified than native born highly educated not in education with less difference between men and women. More men than women are overqualified for their jobs in the UK. Over qualification is less of a problem in the UK than in the USA and Canada.
Source: OECD (2015) Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2015: Settling In.
In the USA and Canada, there are few differences between native and foreign born men in over-qualification rates. Foreign-born women tend to be more over-qualified than native born women in the USA and more so in Canada. Many more workers are overqualified for their jobs in the USA and Canada as compared to the UK.
There are large differences in the percentage of people with tertiary degrees and the education premium between these three countries that are outside the scope of this blog post. These trends may explain differences in the degree of educational mismatch.
It goes without saying that the concept of over-qualification and over-education based mismatch in the labour market is ambiguous, if not misleading and a false construct.
To begin with, under human capital theories of labour market and job matching, what appears to be over-schooling substitutes for other components of human capital, such as training, experience and innate ability. Not surprisingly, over-schooling is more prominent among younger workers because they substitute schooling for on-the-job training. A younger worker of greater ability may start in a job below his ability level because he or she expects a higher probability to be promoted because of greater natural abilities. Sicherman and Galor (1990) found that:
overeducated workers are more likely to move to a higher-level occupation than workers with the required level of schooling
Investment in education is a form of signalling. Workers invest so much education that they appear to be overqualified in the eyes of officious bureaucrats. The reason for this apparent overinvestment is signalling superior quality as a candidate. Signalling seems to be an efficient way of sorting and sifting among candidates of different ability. The fact that signalling survives in market competition suggests that alternative measure ways of measuring candidate quality that a more reliable net of costs are yet to be discovered.
A thoroughly disheartening chart if you're a graduate in the UK i100.io/mpDbJAl http://t.co/mv9izA0mbc—
i100 (@thei100) August 20, 2015
Highly educated workers, like any other worker, must search for suitable job matches. Not surprisingly, the first 5 to 10 years in the workforce are spent in half a dozen jobs as people seek out the most suitable match in terms of occupation, industry and employer. Some of these job seekers who are highly educated will take less suitable jobs while they search on-the-job for better matches. Nothing is free or instantly available in life including a good job match.
A more obvious reason for over qualification is some people like attending university and other forms of education for the sheer pleasure of it.
Anyone who encounters the words over-qualified and over-educated should immediately recall concepts such as the pretence to knowledge, the fatal conceit, and bureaucratic busybodies. As Edwin Leuven and Hessel Oosterbeek said recently:
The over-education/mismatch literature has for too long led a separate life of modern labour economics and the economics of education.
We conclude that the conceptional measurement of over-education has not been resolved, omitted variable bias and measurement error are too serious to be ignored, and that substantive economic questions have not been rigorously addressed.
18 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, Public Choice, rentseeking, survivor principle Tags: competition as a discovery procedure, economics of science, industry policy, losers, picking winners, R&D, The meaning of competition, The pretence the knowledge
18 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, global warming, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: Big Solar, creative destruction, green rent seeking, renewable energy, renewable resources, solar energy
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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