What Can We Learn From National Primary Polling?

The 2012 race was even crazier. GOP voters flirted seriously with nearly every other candidate before finally settling on Romney.

via What Can We Learn From National Primary Polling? Virtually Nothing. – Reason.com.

@nzlabour @NZGreens There just isn’t no missing million out there hanging out for that hard-left clarion call @rsalmond

Rob Salmond has written a great blog this week on the ideological spectrum of New Zealand voters based on the New Zealand Election Study.

In the course of his blog he drove a tremendously big stake through the heart of the old left fantasy that if Labour or Greens goes left, a large block of voters not voting for them now or not voting at all (the missing million voters) will shake lose its false consciousness and follow you:

But “pulling the centre back towards the left” is massively, massively hard.

You win those people over by being relevant to them as they are, not by telling them they’re worldview needs a rethink. It is just basic psychology. Tell people they were right all along; they like you. Tell people they were wrong all along; they don’t.

And if you win a majority of centrists, you win. The New Zealand Election Study series records six MMP elections in New Zealand – the three where Labour did best among centrists were the three Labour won.

That’s another message from the academic study I quoted above – in Germany, Sweden, and the UK, the elections where the left did best among centrists were the elections where they took power. As their popularity among centrists declined, so did their seat share.

What is more disturbing for the old left fantasy of the missing million is voting for the Labour Party or Greens is correlated with ignorance rather than knowledge.

Furthermore, the more people know about economics, the less likely they are to vote for the left as Eric Crampton explains:

When they get to the polls, the ignorant are significantly more likely to support the Labour Party (4% increase in predicted probability for a standard deviation increase in ignorance) and significantly less likely to support the Green party (1% decrease in predicted probability) and United Future (0.5% decrease in predicted probability).

Understanding economics strongly predicted supporting National in 2005, which comes as little surprise: the National Party leader was former Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. A standard deviation increase in our “economic thinking” index correlates with a 5.7% increased probability of voting National, a 1.5% decreased probability of voting NZ First, and a slight decrease in the probability of voting United Future and Maori.

To make matters worse, Crampton found that joining political organisations does little to cure ignorance of politics or otherwise lead to a political awakening. Sometimes active political affiliation reduces ignorance, other times such organisational membership intensifies ignorance.

via Salmond on the centre | Kiwiblog and StephenFranks.co.nz » Blog Archive » Why the left wants everyone to vote.

Taxes on dividend income across the OECD

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Why did @jeremycorbyn never split from @UKLabour despite 30 years on the outer? #torysforcorbyn

Jeremy Corbyn had 30 years to split from the Labour Party, which he voted against 25% of the time, establish his own party and receive the same reception presumably he would have got without needing to have to run for leader of the Labour Party.

The reasoning Corbyn never split from the Labour Party, and the reason why the left never splits from the Labour Party, is the left knows that it would get far fewer votes on its own rather than piggybacking on the right wing of that party.

The right split from the British Labour Party in the early 1980s to form the Social Democratic party. The right-wing split from the Australian Labor Party at least four times over its history.

The left is never split from the New Zealand Labour Party because it knows that it could never get anywhere even under proportional representation without the image of being part of the traditional Labour Party, centre-left, social democratic, not socialist. Jeremy Corbyn and the rest of the left of British Labour are practising mild mannered entryism. By stealing the brand of the Labour Party, the left obtains far more power than it ever could standing on its own two feet as true believers.

The working hypothesis of the far left everywhere is if the Labour Party were to adopt hard left policies is many more votes.

Labour would win many more votes because the offer of a genuine socialist alternative would shake voters loose of their false consciousness.

The left of the Labour Party never went out on its own to test that hypothesis because they knew in their hearts be lucky to not to lose their deposits.

This is despite the strong rise in third parties in British politics despite first past the post.

The remnants of the communist parties do well at elections in countries such as France, Germany (Linke or Left Party) and Japan and are in government in Greece.

  • 53 communist and anti-capitalist parties have been elected worldwide to freely elected parliament in 39 countries.
  • The Trots regularly get 4% in French presidential elections while the British SWP is still in the same league as the monster raving loony party.

The right wing of the Labour Party was willing to take its chances under first past the post voting in the House of Commons because it knew that a large part the electorate would vote for it in preference to the remnant of a left-wing run Labour Party.

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The combination of these splitters from the British Labour Party and the Liberal party won 25% of the vote, two percentage points behind the British Labour Party.

Make Progress, Not Work! Bryan Caplan’s best single video

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More evidence of mass kidnappings of #occupywallstreet activists

Henry Hazlett on why economics is so difficult

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Why Is The NRA So Powerful

The current sizes of government

46% of Tory MPs don’t understand politics #ToriesForCorbyn @jeremycorbyn

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/631585303631921152

https://twitter.com/TheBigBlueBear6/status/633743084430344192

Over-qualification rates in jobs in the USA, UK and Canada

In the UK, foreign-born are much more likely to be over qualified than native born highly educated not in education with less difference between men and women. More men than women are overqualified for their jobs in the UK. Over qualification is less of a problem in the UK than in the USA and Canada.

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Source: OECD (2015) Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2015: Settling In.

In the USA and Canada, there are few differences between native and foreign born men in over-qualification rates. Foreign-born women tend to be more over-qualified than native born women in the USA  and more so in Canada. Many more workers are overqualified for their jobs in the USA and Canada as compared to the UK.

There are large differences in the percentage of people with tertiary degrees and the education premium between these three countries that are outside the scope of this blog post. These trends may explain differences in the degree of educational mismatch.

It goes without saying that the concept of over-qualification and over-education based mismatch in the labour market is ambiguous, if not misleading and a false construct.

To begin with, under human capital theories of labour market and job matching, what appears to be over-schooling substitutes for other components of human capital, such as training, experience and innate ability. Not surprisingly,  over-schooling is more prominent among younger workers because they substitute schooling for on-the-job training. A younger worker of greater ability may start in a job below his ability level  because he or she  expects a higher probability to be promoted because of greater natural abilities. Sicherman and Galor (1990) found that:

overeducated workers are more likely to move to a higher-level occupation than workers with the required level of schooling

Investment in education is a form of signalling. Workers invest so much education that they appear to be overqualified  in the eyes of officious bureaucrats. The reason for this apparent overinvestment  is signalling superior quality as a candidate. Signalling seems to be an efficient way of sorting and sifting among candidates of different ability. The fact that signalling survives in market competition suggests that alternative measure ways of measuring candidate quality  that a more reliable net of costs are yet to be discovered.

Highly educated workers, like any other worker, must search for suitable job matches. Not surprisingly, the first 5 to 10 years in the workforce are spent in half a dozen jobs as people seek out the most suitable match in terms of occupation, industry and employer. Some of these job seekers who are highly educated will take less suitable jobs while they search on-the-job for better matches. Nothing is free or instantly available in life including a good job match.

A more obvious reason for over qualification is some people like attending university and other forms of education for the sheer pleasure of it.

Anyone who encounters the words over-qualified and over-educated should immediately recall concepts such as the pretence to knowledge, the fatal conceit, and bureaucratic busybodies. As Edwin Leuven and Hessel Oosterbeek said recently:

The over-education/mismatch literature has for too long led a separate life of modern labour economics and the economics of education.

We conclude that the conceptional measurement of over-education has not been resolved, omitted variable bias and measurement error are too serious to be ignored, and that substantive economic questions have not been rigorously addressed.

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