Megan McArdle’s iron law of commentary on refugee policy @GreenCatherine

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Source: How to Win Friends and Influence Refugee Policy – Bloomberg View.

More on honest @BernieSanders and his voodoo economics

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Source: EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Paul Krugman Slams Bernie Sanders Again!!

Think Again: The Green Economy @janlogie @GarethMP

Source: Matthew Kahn (2009) Think Again: The Green Economy | Foreign Policy

Edward Prescott and @BernieSanders compared

https://twitter.com/TheNewDeal/status/696864555658539008

As a contrast against the Bernie Sanders tax-and-spend high-growth plan, the Edward Prescott plan is:

  1. mandatory savings for retirement;
  2. Eliminate capital income taxes;
  3. Broaden tax base and lower the marginal tax rate;
  4. Phased-in reforms so all birth-year cohorts are made better off;
  5. Left welfare programs and local public good shares the same; and
  6. Savings not part of taxable income, saving withdrawals part of taxable income – with these changes U.S. income tax would be a consumption tax.

Source: Edward C. Prescott – Importance of Good Governance for Economic Prosperity.

The difference between the Prescott and Sanders plans is Prescott delivers high growth through massive supply-side reforms that include the abolition of taxes on income from capital, mandatory savings for retirement along with much lower marginal tax rates.

The Sanders plan argues that if you tax people a lot more, there is more growth, more investment, more innovation and entrepreneurship and greater labour supply. There is no historical precedent for that as an outcome from higher taxes.

In the case of Prescott, the disagreement is over how large are his growth dividends. In the case of the Sanders band, only one economist agrees that his plan will increase growth. Despite that, he is still voting for Hillary Clinton.

@NZGreens @nzlabour @uklabour @berniesanders bite a gift horse in the mouth when complaining about the ignorance of the average voter

Left-wingers do whinge about voters not understanding; about how if only the voters understood better their arguments than they do now. The Left thinks voters just keep getting it wrong.

They do not know how lucky they are. Rational ignorance and rational irrationality are a rich harvest for the policies of Labour and the Greens.

image

Most of the policies of Labour and the Greens are premised on cultivating the rational irrationalities of voters. These lead to Bryan Caplan’s pessimism bias, an anti-market bias, an anti-foreign bias and make-work bias:

The evidence—most notably, the results of the 1996 Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy—shows that the general public’s views on economics not only are different from those of professional economists but are less accurate, and in predictable ways.

The public really does generally hold, for starters, that prices are not governed by supply and demand, that protectionism helps the economy, that saving labour is a bad idea, and that living standards are falling.

Politicians mindful of re-election must pander to these four biases.

Fortunately, for the New Zealand Labour Party and the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand, voters have no rational reason to correct these four biases. Voters are rationally irrational. As each individual counts so little, why spend any time correcting biased political beliefs?

Anti-market bias: The tendency to underestimate the benefits of the market mechanism. The typical voter equates market phenomena such as profitability and interest as examples of unbridled monetary confiscations by ‘greedy’ businesses. This  biased against the market, despite all its successes, is a rich field to till for both Labour and the Greens

Anti-foreign bias: The tendency to underestimate the economic benefits of interaction with foreigners. This antagonism towards such trends as outsourcing employment overseas, or selling raw materials to faraway traders, is reminiscent of the mercantilism Adam Smith so brilliantly demolished but it still lives on today in the hearts of the voting citizenry. Labour and the Greens play to that bias shamelessly.

Make-work bias: The tendency to underestimate the economic benefits from conserving labour. Those who look to the visible face of job losses overlook the job gains (often by those who lost their jobs) to be made tomorrow in emerging industries. The Greens and Labour are sure-fire enemies of creative destruction.

Pessimistic bias: The tendency to overestimate the severity of economic problems, and to underestimate the recent past, present and future performance of the economy. In The Progress Paradox (2003), Gregg Easterbrook ridicules abundance denial:

Our forebears, who worked and sacrificed tirelessly in the hopes their descendants would someday be free, comfortable, healthy, and educated, might be dismayed to observe how acidly we deny we now are these things.

Many average voters seem to feel that Malthus was correct in diagnosing the allegedly poor prospects for the market economy.

Where would the voting base of the Greens be without a pessimism bias? They are professional pessimists and doomsday prophets from their earliest days. Labour assumes working class Tories are dupes of what is left of fading media barons such as Rupert Murdoch.

Tax receipts by source as % of US GDP since 1934

Quiz question: spot the Reagan revolution?

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Source: The President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2017, Historical Tables | The White House, table 2.3.

Charges following fatal and serious injury New Zealand police crashes, 2003 – 2008

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Source: Rodney Hide, “Pursuit culture skews police priorities”, National Business Review, 19 February 2016, p.28.

The distributional impact of alternative energy incentives

Note from @paulkrugman to @BernieSanders @JeremyCorbyn and their supporters

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@berniesanders If Denmark were your home instead of US you would

Source: Compare The United States To Denmark.

If New Zealand were your home instead of The US you would

Source: Compare The United States To New Zealand.

Revenue lost from middle-class tax loopholes in the USA

Source: Closing Tax ‘Loopholes’ Would Choke the Middle Class – Bloomberg View from Office of Management and Budget.

Don’t you miss the good old days before TV when democracy was less transparent

Deaths and serious injuries in New Zealand police chases, 2003 – 2008

Rodney Hide found that one in four New Zealand police chases ends in a crash. Of the 137 police pursuits that ended in death or serious injury between 2003 and 2008 there are 9 violence charges. Six were for manslaughter – all caused by crashes that ended the chase. There was also one charge of murder relating to the crash at the end of the chase. No violence charges arose from information known at the time of the start of the police chase. There was ambiguous information about a charge of kidnapping after a police chase. I could not determine if this kidnapping was known at the time the police chase started and therefore was its motive.

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Source: Rodney Hide, “Pursuit culture skews police priorities”, National Business Review, 19 February 2016, p.28.

In all, 13 of the 137 police chases were motivated by the fleeing driver having committed a crime. The most serious of these was burglary. Rodney Hide also found that between 2005 and 2008 there are an average of 182 police chases a month.

I am all for police chasing kidnappers and armed criminals brandishing their weapons. As for the rest, they are not serious offenders. Chasing them puts the public at risk. Most of the fleeing drivers and their passengers are enthusiastic applicants for the Darwin awards.

Youth voting trend for US Presidential elections

https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/683931262755536899

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