Can New Zealand blame its small size for its economic woes?

The median national population size is not much more than New Zealand’s current population.

  • Controlling for location, Easterly and Kraay (2002) found that smaller states were richer than other states in per capita real GDP.
  • Rose (2006) reviewed the impact of size on the level of income, inflation, material well-being, health, education, and the quality of a country’s institutions and found that small countries are more open to trade than large countries, but are not systematically different otherwise.

As I argued in my previous post on distance, New Zealand were prosperous from the time of European settlement despite a small population and their great distance from the main markets of the world on each side of the Atlantic.

Of the ten richest countries in terms of GDP per capita, only four have populations above one million people (Alesina 2003). These countries are the USA (290 million people), Switzerland (7 million people), Norway (4 million people) and Singapore (3 million people). Of these four nations, two are below the global national population median of six million (Alesina 2003).

New Zealand’s population is similar and often larger in size than most of the richest countries in the world. Singapore and Hong Kong were initially far from the global Trans-Atlantic economic hubs before their respective development miracles unfolded in the mid and late 20th century.

Something must have happened recently for either small population size or distance to have become important when it was not important for most of the history of New Zealand. New Zealand has been on the same place on the map for all its history.

Transport costs on exports to England and the rest of Europe did not hold back New Zealand’s economic development in the 19th century and for most of the 20th century despite far more primitive and more expensive forms of transport.

New Zealand specialised in commodities that could be produced at a low cost because land and water was plentiful and exported them in bulk to large markets on the other side of the world because of falling transport costs. The invention of refrigeration in 1881 was a major boost to meat exports to England.

The main economic difference between smaller and larger nation-states around the globe is smaller nations are more open to international trade and foreign investment (Alesina et al. 2005).

In a world of freer overseas trade, small countries can extend the size of their markets by trade and sidestep many of the costs of small internal markets. As long as political borders do not greatly limit international trade, economic success is increasingly independent of national size (Alesina 2003; Alesina et al. 2000).

A leading economic advantage of large national size in more isolationist times was a large marketplace free of trade and investment barriers and fewer national borders and different legal systems to parry. As more nations open up to the world, the single market benefits of large size for a country start to melt away quickly (Alesina 2003; Alesina and Spolaore 2003; Alesina et al. 2000).

As countries become larger, administration costs and the growing heterogeneity in the political preferences of larger and more diverse populations counterbalance the benefits of size and scale (Alesina et al. 2003, 2004, 2006; Spolaore 2006). More nation-states and freer trade increase the degree that governments must compete for citizens and investment. Inter-jurisdictional competition increases the incentives for governments to adopt institutions and policies that promote efficiency and productivity and serve their peoples better (Friedman 2005).

Arguments against

Arguments against

Image

Super-Economy “pre-reviewed ” Piketty in 2010

The French are poorer that the 3rd poorest American state: Arkansas. The EU-15 as a whole would qualify to be the 49th poorest American state.

The rich in Europe are poor by American standards. The poor in the USA are middle class by European standards. The European middle class has smaller houses, few cars and few consumers durables that the average poor in the USA.

via Super-Economy: Dynamic America, Poor Europe  and Tino Sanandaji

Housing space per capita

via Heritage Foundation

Gary Becker on crony capitalism in Latin America

One legitimate reason for the opposition to capitalism in Latin America is that it frequently has been "crony capitalism" as opposed to the competitive capitalism that produces desirable social outcomes.

Crony capitalism is a system where companies with close connections to the government gain economic power not by competing better, but by using the government to get favoured and protected positions.

These favours include monopolies over telecommunications, exclusive licenses to import different goods, and other sizeable economic advantages. Some cronyism is found in all countries, but Mexico and other Latin countries have often taken the influence of political connections to extremes.

…The excesses of cronyism have provided ammunition to parties of the left that are openly hostile to capitalism and neo-liberal policies. Yet when these parties come to power they usually do not reduce the importance of political influence but shift power to groups that support them.

…Leftist ideologies take advantage of the discontent this causes among intellectuals and the poor, and promise a redistribution of assets and better education opportunities for the poor.

Promises of redistribution have figured prominently in the speeches of Chavez, Lula, Morales, Peronists in Argentina, and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, former mayor of Mexico City and a leading candidate to be Mexico’s next president.

When it is discovered that left wing governments usually do not end up helping the poor very much, they tend to be voted out of office.

… The overall trend during the past several decades in practically all countries of this region has been toward more open economies with greater competition within industries, with much more reliance on private enterprise, and with a reduced role for government mandates, government-run enterprises, and cronyism.

Since these policies have provided greater benefits to all classes than the socialist policies of a Fidel Castro or a Hugo Chavez, the vast majority of people that live under such leaders will be, or in Cuba have been, disappointed by the unfulfilled promises. They are likely to come back to parties that support more market policies as long as free elections are preserved.

Gary Becker 2006

I forgot to vote once because I forgot there was an election on

Tasmania’s House of Assembly election in 1982 had no party campaigns, no TV or newspaper ads, no how to vote cards and all candidates could only solicit votes for themselves, not for others in their party or anyone else.

A late legal opinion was that any form of expenditure on co-ordinated campaigning and joint solicitation of votes would be added to each individual candidate spending limits of $1000 separately.

With no party campaigns, no TV or newspaper ads, no how to vote cards and all candidates could only solicited votes for themselves, the date of the election slipped my mind and I forgot to get a postal vote before going inter-state for a holiday.

The Liberal Party won in a landslide defeating the incumbent Labor Government.

The campaigning ban seemed to give an advantage to the party already leading because the party on the nose could not dig itself out of a hole in the campaign by pointing out that they may be bad, but, on closer inspection, the other side is worse.

I do not know of any studies of this unusual election.

Greens as heirs of the 19th century Tory radicals

The Greens are no more than a reincarnation of the 19th century British Tory Radicals with their aristocratic sensibilities that combined strong support for centralised power with a paternalistic concern for the plight of the poor:

  • 19th century Tory radicals opposed the middle classes and the aesthetic ugliness they associated with an industrial economy; and
  • Like the 19th century Tory Radicals, today’s green gentry see the untamed middle classes as the true enemy.

Environmentalists have an aristocratic vision of a stratified, terraced society in which the knowing ones would order society for the rest of us.

Environmentalism offered the extraordinary opportunity to combine the qualities of virtue and selfishness

Many left-wingers thought they were expressing an entirely new and progressive philosophy as they mouthed the same prejudices as Trollope’s 19th century Tory squires: attacking any further expansion of industry and commerce as impossibly vulgar, because it was:

ecologically unfair to their pheasants and wild ducks.

Neither the failure of the environmental apocalypse to arrive nor the steady improvement in environmental conditions because of capitalism has dampened the ardour of those well-off enough to be eager to make hair-shirts for others to wear.

The 19th century Tory radical’s disdain for the habits of their inferiors remains undiminished in their 21st century heirs and successors.

True to its late 1960s origins, political environmentalism gravitates toward bureaucrats and hippies: toward a global, little-brother government that will keep the middle classes in line and toward a back-to-the-earth, peasant-like localism, imposed on others but presenting no threat to the inner city elites’ comfortable middle class lives.

Unlike most, green voters tend to be financially secure and comfortable enough to be able to put aside immediate self-interest when imposing their political opinions.

The rising Green vote is a product of increasing tertiary education. Green voters are typically tertiary educated or undergoing tertiary education.

Green votes are defined by what they studied at university: arts, society and culture, architecture and education. Professionally they tended to be consultants, or worked in the media, health or education. Theses jobs are heavily concentrated in tertiary disciplines that are focused on much more than just making money.

Greens are very well-paid inner-urban dwellers who make more use of public transport and have few religious convictions. They tend not to have children until their 30s, if at all, which makes them even richer and gives them lots more spare time to organise political activities and annoy the rest of us. Some of them still haunt campuses, churning out more arts graduates, but increasingly, green voters comprise a well-heeled professional group.

Greens are distinct from the typical Labor or National voter demographic but they support the the Green Party for social rather than economic reasons. Not unlike middle-class Catholics in the 1950s and 1960s who voted Labour.

How ironic that the green gentry—progressives against progress—turn out to be nothing more than nineteenth-century urbane conservatives. There is nothing new under the sun.

Big HT: http://www.city-journal.org/2010/20_3_american-liberalism.html

Those subservient press barons

Both political parties used television licensing and the threat of cable TV to manipulate Murdoch, Packer and the other press barons. They were victims of Fred McChesney’s concept of rent extraction:

  • Rent extraction is the politician’s pastime of threatening harmful legislation to extract political support and contributions from well-heeled private institutions.
  • Payments to politicians are often made not for political favours, but to avoid political disfavour, that is, as part of a system of political extortion or rent extraction.

Rent extraction is money for nothing – money paid in exchange for politicians’ inaction.

The politician is paid, not for rent creation, but for withholding legislative and regulatory action that would destroy existing private rents.

McChesney establishes the conditions under which of rent creation or extraction will occur. The relative attractiveness of the two strategies depends on the elasticities of demand and supply.

  • If demand is relatively inelastic, rent creation will occur; and
  • If supply is relatively inelastic, rent extraction will occur.

The existence of an organization or a large established firm lowers transaction costs for the politicians negotiating and collecting donations and support, making rent expropriation threats easier.

It is hard to extort rents from those with little in the way of organisation. A cost of being an established lobbying organisation or a large firm with high fixed costs is a greater potential for rent extraction.

The print and electronic media are ripe for rent extraction because of their immobile assets and heavy regulation.

Investors in heavily regulated capital intensive industries such as the mass media, digital and print, do not bite the hand the feeds them.

Little wonder that the media barons were honoured supplicants to whomever is in power in Canberra. They are soon Labor’s business mates whenever Labor was in power.

Threatening to allow cable TV was the big stick in every Australian government’s hand until the 1990s to extract support or at least subservience from the media.

Rupert Murdoch has unashamedly backed political winners, only to dump them when he was convinced that they were washed up or that his newspapers might be left stranded on the losing side of politics.

Murdoch’s see-sawing political stances are entirely pragmatic. He has always been prepared to back winners just before they win, and to shift allegiances on non-ideological grounds.

The Internet Arguing Checklist for Right-Wingers

  1. Say something offensive.
  2. Pretend statistics support your offensive statement.
  3. Claim liberal bias in the media.
  4. Claim there’s a liberal agenda.
  5. Offer up a conspiracy theory.
  6. Call your opponent stupid.
  7. Gloat about your accomplishments.
  8. Offer easily disqualified opinions.
  9. Create derogatory nicknames for opponents.
  10. Say science proves your point.
  11. Say science is limited when it conflicts with your point.
  12. When all else fails, Communism!

via Pox Vopoli: The Internet Arguing Checklist for Right-Wingers.

The Internet Arguing Checklist for Left-Wingers

  1. Skim until Offended
  2. Disqualify that Opinion
  3. Attack, Attack, Attack
  4. Disregard Inconvenient facts
  5. Make Shit Up
  6. Resort to Moral Equivalency
  7. Concern Trolling
  8. When all else fails, Racism!

arguemnetuj1.jpg Internet Argument image by AzarIwa

via The Internet Arguing Checklist | Monster Hunter Nation.

First they came…

Why I am not reviewing Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century – updated again

It’s 700 pages long and goes on about Marx. Some people were watching the other channel when the Berlin Wall fell.

thomas-piketty-economist-will-hutton

My 1 o’clock lecture at ANU in 1990 was next to a room rented out ironically from 12 to 1 to the Campus Trots and then to the Campus Christians for an hour of prayer to another saviour.

The Twitter summary of Piketty is this:

Karl Marx wasn’t wrong, just early. Pretty much. Sorry, capitalism. #inequalityforevah

The only Marxist I bother with is Jon Elster. He is a leading proponent of Analytical Marxism and one of the last polymaths. Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster’s books one:

would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster’s purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen experts.

All of Elster’s books and writings are worth reading, including

  • Ulysses and the Sirens (1979);
  • Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality (1983);
  • Making Sense of Marx (1985); and
  • An Introduction to Karl Marx (1986).

As Jon Elster noted:

Marxian economics is, with a few exceptions, intellectually dead

and Marx’s labour theory of value is:

useless at best, harmful and misleading at its not infrequent worst.

To go on with my non-review, I will quote Tyler Cowen:

The crude seven-word version of Piketty’s argument is “rates of return on capital won’t diminish.”

Piketty’s reasons why rates of return on capital won’t diminish are fairly specific and restricted to only a small share of capital.

.. In any case this is pure speculation and Piketty’s entire argument depends upon it.

… Piketty converts the entrepreneur into the rentier.

To the extent capital reaps high returns, it is by assuming risk…

Yet the concept of risk hardly plays a role in the major arguments of this book.

Once you introduce risk, the long-run fate of capital returns again becomes far from certain.

In fact the entire book ought to be about risk but instead we get the rentier…

Overall, the main argument is based on two (false) claims.

First, that capital returns will be high and non-diminishing, relative to other factors.

Second, that this can happen without significant increases in real wages.

Piketty’s advocacy of a top marginal income tax rate of 80% and a an international treaty for a wealth tax are wildly impractical and destructive of economic growth and entrepreneurship. His advocacy of 60% marginal tax rates on incomes above $200,000 strike at the heart of the professional and managerial occupations that are the backbone of day-to-day capitalism. Piketty’s wealth tax would tax the homes and the retirement savings of the ordinary middle class:

  • wealth below 200,000 euros be taxed at a rate of 0.1 percent,
  • wealth between 200,000 and one million euros at 0.5 percent,
  • wealth between one million and five million euros at 1.0 percent, and
  • wealth above five million euros at 2.0 percent.

Piketty’s reason for these high top tax rates is not to bring in more revenue or to redistribute wealth to poor and the downtrodden but simply “to put an end to such incomes.” Harsanyi argues that:

Like many progressives, Piketty doesn’t really believe that most people deserve their wealth anyway, so confiscating it presents no real moral dilemma.

He also argues that we can measure a person’s productivity and the value of a worker (namely, low-skilled labourers) while arguing that other groups of workers (namely, the kind of people he doesn’t admire) are bequeathed undeserved, “arbitrary” salaries. What tangible benefit does a stockbroker or a kulak or an explanatory journalist offer society, after all?

This takes me back to Jon Elster who had this to say on socialism:

Optimism and wishful thinking have been features of socialist thought from its inception.

In Marx, for instance, two main premises appear to be that whatever is desirable is possible, and that whatever is desirable and possible is inevitable.

…It has become clear that classical socialism massively underestimated the importance of economic incentives.

Greg Mankiw is less harsh, but still to the point:

Like President Obama and others on the left, Piketty wants to spread the wealth around.

Another philosophical viewpoint is that it is the government’s job to enforce rules such as contracts and property rights and promote opportunity rather than to achieve a particular distribution of economic outcomes.

No amount of economic history will tell you that John Rawls (and Thomas Piketty) offers a better political philosophy than Robert Nozick (and Milton Friedman).

John Rawls was actually very much alive to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society.

Unequal incomes might turn out to be to the advantage of everyone. Work effort and entrepreneurial alertness respond to incentives; incentives channel people into the occupations and jobs where they produce more.

Rawls lent qualified support to the idea of a flat-rate consumption tax because these taxes:

impose a levy according to how much a person takes out of the common store of goods and not according to how much he contributes.

A simple way to have a progressive consumption tax is to exempt all savings from taxation.

With his emphasis on fair distributions of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left. Left-wing thinkers then started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and his tolerance of large discrepancies in income and wealth.

It’s impossible to make the workers better off by taxing capital. The optimal rate of tax on income from capital is zero. This is why the Mirrlees Review of the UK taxation system argued for zero taxation of the returns to capital.

Robert Lucas estimated in 1990 that eliminating all taxes on income from capital would increase the U.S. capital stock by about 35% and consumption by 7%.

Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Ashwin Kambhampati, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (2014) found that eliminating the corporate income tax completely would raise the U.S. capital stock (machines and buildings) by 23%, output by 8% and the real wages of unskilled and skilled workers each by 12%.

Book reviews serve the same purpose as film reviews. They are filters for our time. Do you agree?

I made a time management decision to not read a long book plenty of others reviewed and some even understood.

As for the growing income inequality, there is a long literature dating back 25-years arguing that skill-biased technological change is increasing the returns to investing in education as Gary Becker blogged in 2011:

Earnings inequality in the United States and many other countries has increased greatly since the late 1970s, due in large measure to globalization and technological progress that raised the productivity of more educated and more skilled individuals.

While the average American college graduate earned about a 40% premium over the average high school graduate in 1980, this premium increased to over 70% in 2000.

The good side of this higher education-based earnings inequality is that it induced more young men, and especially more young women, to go to and finish college.

The bad side is that many sufficiently able children could not take advantage of the greater returns from a college education because their parents did not prepare them to perform well in school, or they went to bad schools, or they lacked the financing to attend college.

As a result, the incomes of high school dropouts and of many high school graduates stagnated while incomes boomed for many persons who graduated college, and even more so for those with post graduate education.

There is nothing new under the sun.

My favourite speech: Vaclav Havel’s address to the US Congress, 21 February 1990

Dear Mr. President, dear Senators and Members of the House, ladies and gentlemen:

My advisers advised me to speak on this important occasion in Czech. I don’t know why. Perhaps they wanted you to enjoy the sweet sounds of my mother tongue.

Vaclav_havel

The last time they arrested me, on October 27 of last year, I didn’t know whether it was for two days or two years.

Exactly one month later, when the rock musician Michael Kocab told me that I would be probably proposed as a presidential candidate, I thought it was one of his usual jokes.

On the 10th of December, 1989, when my actor friend, Jiri Bartoska, in the name of the Civic Forum, nominated me as a candidate for the office of president of the republic, I thought it was out of the question that the parliament we have inherited from the previous regime would elect me.

Nineteen days later, when I was unanimously elected president of my country, I had no idea that, in two months, I would be speaking in front of this famous and powerful assembly and that what I say would be heard by millions of people who have never heard of me and that hundreds of politicians and political scientists would study every word that I say.

When they arrested me on October 27, I was living in a country ruled by the most conservative communist government in Europe, and our society slumbered beneath the pall of a totalitarian system.

Today, less than four months later, I’m speaking to you as the representative of a country that has set out on the road to democracy, a country where there is complete freedom of speech, which is getting ready for free elections and which wants to create a prosperous market economy and its own foreign policy…

The living wage

Why not just increase the family tax credit? That would increase the incomes of poor families without putting their jobs at particular greater risk.

The local calculation of the living wage includes cable TV and an overseas holiday.

Milton Friedman provides some critical truths on the living wage:

Do-Gooders believe passing a law saying nobody shall get less than [a minimum wage] is helping poor people (who need the money).

You’re doing nothing of the kind.

What you’re doing is to ensure that people whose skills do not justify that wage will be unemployed.

Richard Tol: IPCC again

Richard Tol reports that landlocked countries vigorously protested at IPCC meetings that they too would suffer from sea level rise!

Richard S. J. Tol

This was because the international climate negotiations of 2013 in Warsaw concluded that poor countries might be entitled to compensation for the impacts of climate change.

The assessment of the size of those impacts and hence any compensation led to an undignified bidding war among delegations – my country is more vulnerable than yours. Landlocked countries had no intention of missing out.

The IPCC is a typical multilateral meeting process from Tol’s description:

  • Many countries send a single person delegation.
  • Some countries can afford to send many delegates.
  • They work in shifts, exhausting the other delegations with endless discussions about trivia, so that all important decisions are made in the final night with only a few delegations left standing.

Naturally, all inconvenient truths are vetoed, as Tol explains, listing the following omissions and redrafts of the Summary for Policy Makers:

Tol then aptly states his position on it all:

Alarmism feeds polarization.

Climate zealots want to burn heretics of global warming on a stick.

Others only see incompetence and conspiracy in climate research, and nepotism in climate policy.

A polarized debate is not conducive to enlightened policy in an area as complex as climate change – although we only need a carbon tax, and a carbon tax only, that applies to all emissions and gradually and predictably rises over time.

HT: Catallaxyfiles

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