Is the Mother Country catching up with Down Under? Real GDP per working age New Zealander, British and Australian, detrended, 1956 –2013

Figure 1: Real GDP per New Zealander, British and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1956-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Figure 2: Real GDP per New Zealander, British and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1.9 per cent detrended, 1956-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

The main drivers of child poverty

Urban planners are confident souls

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from The transformation of cities: A suburban world | The Economist via demographia.com

Health spending has been slow for a few years now

via Lower Health Costs Won’t Cure All – Bloomberg View.

Further evidence that street politics is counter-productive

Public disorder and rioting by a large leads to a law and order response among the public and a hardening of social attitudes against whatever the desired social reform might be when it is tainted by civil disorder.

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The Left, the Green Left and the watermelons in particular want to believe that street protests change things. They have to validate their youthful offences against public order.

Sadly, no; sadly for them but not for the law-abiding rest of us who resolve our differences by trying to persuade each other and elections.

The law-abiding rest of us believe in democratic equality. Your vote counts as much as mine  in a democracy with free speech. The only way you can change my vote is by free speech, not by public disorder, threats and intimidation and taking the law into your own hands.

Does tax reform lead to lower taxes?

Labour lost the working-class vote a long time ago

 

via Labour lost the working-class vote a long time ago – Spectator Blogs.

Just passed 40th anniversary of top climate scientists wanting to melt Arctic ice cap

Are 40% of workers on zero hours contracts, almost?

The economic forces underpinning the housing affordability crisis

The key point is that increases (declines) in demand can bring sharply rising (falling) house prices when supply is constrained. However, when land supply is not regulated, it adjusts to demand and house price volatility is reduced.

As long as commentators focus primarily on the demand side of the housing market, whilst ignoring supply-side constraints, they will never fully understand the drivers of housing bubbles and busts. The resulting incorrect diagnosis will inevitably lead to poor policy prescriptions and outcomes.

via The Truth About the U.S. Housing Market | Seeking Alpha

Can there be a shy NZ Labour vote when voter turnout is already high?

The Left over Left truly believes there is a shy Labour vote out there waiting for the call of hard left policies. One flaw in that hypothesis is voter turnout in New Zealand is high by international standards.

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Indeed, voter turnout doesn’t seem to vary that much with the political composition of governments. Despite compulsory voting, where those shy Labour voters would have to vote, most of the post-war period in Australia was governed by the Liberal party.

Do violent protests win votes for your cause?

Monkey Cage blogged on a very timely study on the impact of violent and nonviolent protests on voting behaviour. Non-violent protest in the 60s enticed sympathy and increased voter support for the Democratic Party in the 1964, 1968 to 1972 presidential elections:

Black-led nonviolent protests… exhibit a statistically significant positive relationship with county-level Democratic vote-share in the same period.

This is not surprising because nonviolent protest acknowledge fidelity to law and democratic equality. No one likes to be bullied and one of the purposes of the secret ballot is to prevent voters from being bullied because no one knows how you voted.

Indeed, there is a long history of anonymous pamphleteering, which has evolved into anonymous trolling as a way of people expressing their political views without facing backlash from both the majority and a vindictive minority.

In a democracy, it’s up to me to persuade you to change your mind – that what you took for granted for so long is not so. That’s how liberal democracies work: by trying to persuade each other and voting.

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Violent protests had the exact opposite effect to peaceful protests on Democratic Party voting shares in the 1964, 1968 in 1972 presidential elections. There was a law and order backlash among voters against what were relatively widespread rioting and civil disorder:

…black-led protests in which some violence occurs are associated with a statistically significant decline in Democratic vote-share in the 1964, 1968 and 1972 presidential elections.

This is a roundabout way of saying that a Republican won the 1968 election on a law and order platform, not a Democrat on a peace platform. The country was convinced, including Liberal Democrats, that law and order had broken down and that the Democratic Party could not restore law and order.

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In the 1968 presidential election, there is a third party candidate, George Wallace, who won won almost ten million popular votes and 46 electoral votes, including in the electoral college on an even harsher law and order platform than Nixon.

Wallace was a racist Southern Democrat the Democratic Party would prefer us to forget and a nasty political opportunist to boot. His political rhetoric included the only words four letter words the protesters didn’t know was work and soap.

As I recall warmed over Marxism, the idea of violent protests is to provoke a law and order backlash, initially with popular support of the working class. The resulting police repression will overreach and cause the proletariat to breakthrough their false consciousness to see that capitalists for whom they are and rise up to overthrow them.

Rise up ye workers, rise up for you have nothing to lose but your chains. These days that call to the barricades would have to be rise up ye workers, rise up for you have nothing to lose what your smart phone and air points.

The killer air pollution that the Greens never mention

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How Taxes Affect Investment Decisions For Multinational Firms

Housing affordability and land regulation around the globe

Auckland is up with London and New York in terms of housing unaffordability relative to median incomes. US cities with responsive land regulation don’t experience housing bubbles.

Glaeser and Gyourko summarised the findings of a number of studies  on land supply and housing prices:

Recent research also indicates that house prices are more volatile, not just higher, in tightly regulated markets …. price bubbles are more likely to form in tightly regulated places, because the inelastic supply conditions that are created in part from strict local land-use regulation are an important factor in supporting ever larger price increases whenever demand is increasing.

…. It is more difficult for house prices to become too disconnected from their fundamental production costs in lightly regulated markets because significant new supply quickly dampens prices, thereby busting any illusions market participants might have about the potential for ever larger price increases.

Via The Truth About the U.S. Housing Market | Seeking Alpha.

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