
via We’ve got 5 years to save world says Australia’s chief scientist Professor Penny Sackett | Herald Sun.
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
04 Dec 2014 Leave a comment
04 Dec 2014 2 Comments
in applied welfare economics, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand, welfare reform Tags: Labour leisure trade-off, welfare reform
The higher is the welfare benefit, the greater the probability that an individual will choose to go on welfare rather than work. Welfare dependency is the most rewarding leisure-labour trade-off for them.
The higher the wage on offer to a given worker in the labour market, the greater is the probability that they will choose to work rather than go on welfare. Working is the most rewarding leisure-labour trade-off for them.
Both the income and substitution effects of welfare benefits provide a disincentive to work. Higher income levels from generous welfare benefits induce higher consumption of all normal goods, including leisure. Income taxes and a high benefit abatement rate provides little incentive to work (the substitution effect) for lower paid workers and some second earners.
When confronted with the choice of a low-paying job and a generous welfare benefit, some will choose welfare over work. These workers are responding rationally to the (dis)incentives embedded in the labour market and welfare system. For them, welfare dependency is optimal.
This is particularly true for single parents with low labour market skills. One or more children may generate more net income (from increased welfare benefits) than working in the labour market and paying child care. If there is no expiry date for these welfare benefits, some individuals who go on welfare will stay on welfare for a long period of time.
Of course, the economics of crime comes up. A condition of receipt of welfare benefits in just about every welfare state is healthy adults must make themselves available for work and actively look for work.
Most of the essentials of the impact of welfare reform on labour-leisure trade-offs are captured, and most policy dilemmas are clearly defined within the framework in Figure 1. Figure 1 illustrates the position of two workers regarding whether to work (the participation decision) and how many hours to work.
Figure 1: The basic leisure-labour trade-off

The hourly wage rate represented by the symbol W in Figure 1 is traded-off against working fewer or no hours. This additional of leisure time includes: pure leisure; household production such as child care, cooking and cleaning; education and other human capital investments; and personal time such as self-care and sleep.
The next few blogs will explain how various welfare reforms change the labour leisure trade-off for welfare recipients. There are three main parameters in any welfare system:
This is not to ignore work testing and work requirements, these complications are postponed to later blogs. All of these parameters and the implications of changing them on labour supply will be discussed in future blogs.
The blogs so far
is-welfare-dependency-optimal-for-whom-part-3-abatement-free-income-thresholds-and-labour-supply
is-welfare-dependents-optimal-for-the-whom-part-4-in-work-tax-credits-and-labour-supply
is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-5-higher-abatement-rates-and-labour-supply
is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-6-mandatory-work-requirements-and-labour-supply
is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-7-the-role-of-tagging-in-welfare-benefits-system
03 Dec 2014 Leave a comment
in International law, liberalism, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: non-interventionist foreign policy
|
Four Distinct Foreign-Policy Orientations |
||
| Internationalist: Willing to intervene in foreign affairs | Isolationist: Reluctant to intervene in foreign affairs | |
| Emphasis on the national interest as primary value in foreign policy | National-interest interventionism | National-interest isolationism |
| Significant emphasis on altruism in foreign policy | Altruistic interventionism | Altruistic isolationism |
|
Source: Reichley 2000. |
||
02 Dec 2014 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: ACT, Conservative Party, MMP, National Party, The withering away of the Labour Party
A constant source of speculation prior to the 2014 general election in New Zealand was whether the Labour Party would win enough of the party vote to have any list MPs at all.
Will the Labour Party have any list MPs in the 2017 election if the Conservative party were to get into Parliament under the MMP system? The following tables are scenarios using the 2014 general election results as the base.
Table 1: status quo – 2014 New Zealand general election actual results
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | % of MPs | ||||
| ACT New Zealand | 0.69% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | ||||
| Green Party | 10.70% | 14 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 11.57% | ||||
| Labour Party | 25.13% | 32 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 26.45% | ||||
| Māori Party | 1.32% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.65% | ||||
| National Party | 47.04% | 60 | 41 | 19 | 60 | 49.59% | ||||
| New Zealand First Party | 8.66% | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 9.09% | ||||
| United Future | 0.22% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | * | 0.83% | |||
| Totals | 93.76% | 120 | 71 | 50 | 121 | 100.00% | ||||
Table 2: Conservative Party wins electorate seat at expense of National Party
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | % of MPs | ||||
| ACT New Zealand | 0.69% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | ||||
| Conservative | 3.97% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4.13% | ||||
| Green Party | 10.70% | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 10.74% | ||||
| Labour Party | 25.13% | 31 | 27 | 4 | 31 | 25.62% | ||||
| Māori Party | 1.32% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.65% | ||||
| National Party | 47.04% | 57 | 40 | 17 | 57 | 47.11% | ||||
| New Zealand First Party | 8.66% | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 9.09% | ||||
| United Future | 0.22% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | * | 0.83% | |||
| Totals | 97.73% | 120 | 71 | 50 | 121 | 100.00% | ||||
If the Conservative Party were to win an electorate seat at the expense of the National Party, three of their five seats will come off the column of the National Party, one from the Greens, and one from Labour.
The Conservative party would have held the balance of power in the New Zealand Parliament, mostly the expense of the National Party.
Table 3: Conservative Party wins electorate seat at expense of Labour Party
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | % of MPs | ||||
| ACT New Zealand | 0.69% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | ||||
| Conservative | 3.97% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4.13% | ||||
| Green Party | 10.70% | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 10.74% | ||||
| Labour Party | 25.13% | 31 | 26 | 5 | 31 | 25.62% | ||||
| Māori Party | 1.32% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.65% | ||||
| National Party | 47.04% | 57 | 41 | 16 | 57 | 47.11% | ||||
| New Zealand First Party | 8.66% | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 9.09% | ||||
| United Future | 0.22% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | * | 0.83% | |||
| Totals | 97.73% | 120 | 71 | 50 | 121 | 100.00% | ||||
If the Conservative party were to win an electoral seat at the expense of the Labour Party, the National party does no better. It still loses three MPs. The Greens lose one MP; the Labour Party also loses a list MP.
Table 4: Conservative party reaches 5% threshold expense of the party vote of New Zealand First
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | % of MPs | |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.69% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | |
| Conservative | 5.00% | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4.96% | |
| Green Party | 10.70% | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 10.74% | |
| Labour Party | 25.13% | 31 | 27 | 4 | 31 | 25.62% | |
| Māori Party | 1.32% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.65% | |
| National Party | 47.04% | 58 | 41 | 17 | 58 | 47.93% | |
| New Zealand First Party | 7.63% | 9 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 7.44% | |
| United Future | 0.22% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | * | 0.83% |
| Totals | 97.73% | 120 | 71 | 50 | 121 | 100.00% |
The Conservative party getting to 5% does a little better for the National Party. The National Party loses two list MPs, with the Greens losing one list MP as does the Labour Party.
Bumping up the party vote of the Conservative party by 1.03% wins two list MPs at the expense of New Zealand First! Such are the comings and goings of MMP.
Table 5: the Conservative Party reaches 5% threshold at the expense of the National Party
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | % of MPs | |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.69% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | |
| Conservative | 5.00% | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4.96% | |
| Green Party | 10.70% | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 10.74% | |
| Labour Party | 25.13% | 31 | 27 | 4 | 31 | 25.62% | |
| Māori Party | 1.32% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.65% | |
| National Party | 46.01% | 56 | 41 | 15 | 56 | 46.28% | |
| New Zealand First Party | 8.66% | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 9.09% | |
| United Future | 0.22% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | * | 0.83% |
| Totals | 97.73% | 120 | 71 | 50 | 121 | 100.00% |
If the Conservative party reaches the 5% threshold to qualify for list MPs at the next election at the expense of the party vote of the National Party, the National Party is now four MPs short of what it won in the 2014 general election in order to elect six Conservative MPs.
It seems the National Party was right in not easing the path of the Conservative Party into Parliament at the last election. Most of the Conservative Party MPs would come at the expense of the National Party and would have delivered a more complicated post-election coalition scenario.
The Conservative Party is next to no threat to the size of the Labour Party caucus, and the number of list MPs it might win at the next election.
Table 6: the Conservative party reaches 5% at the expense of the National Party and the National Party vote drops by a further 1% in favour of the Labour Party
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | % of MPs | |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.69% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | |
| Conservative | 5.00% | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4.96% | |
| Green Party | 10.70% | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 10.74% | |
| Labour Party | 26.13% | 32 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 26.45% | |
| Māori Party | 1.32% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.65% | |
| National Party | 45.01% | 55 | 41 | 14 | 55 | 45.45% | |
| New Zealand First Party | 8.66% | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 9.09% | |
| United Future | 0.22% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | * | 0.83% |
| Totals | 97.73% | 120 | 71 | 50 | 121 | 100.00% |
Only when the National Party’s vote drops towards 45% does the Conservative Party become its knight in shining armour, delivering an absolute majority in Parliament.
One reason that the National Party did not endorse the Conservative Party is such an endorsement would have put off socially liberal National Party voters. Letting that Conservative Party get into Parliament under its own steam does not risk that stigma.
When the Conservative Party is elected into Parliament under its own steam because of disenchantment with the National Party, as happens with all third term governments, the Conservative Party will deliver a fourth term to the National Party, as shown in Table 6.
The National Party have nothing to gain and something to lose in terms of party votes by endorsing the Conservative Party, and a lot to gain by letting it win seats in Parliament on its own merits.
Table 7: National Party’s party vote drops to 44%
|
Party name |
Party Votes won |
Party seat entitlement |
No. of electorate seats won |
No. of list MPs |
Total MPs |
|
% of MPs |
|
ACT New Zealand |
0.69% |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0.83% |
|
|
Conservative |
5.00% |
6 |
0 |
6 |
6 |
4.96% |
|
|
Green Party |
10.70% |
13 |
0 |
13 |
13 |
10.74% |
|
|
Labour Party |
27.13% |
33 |
26 |
7 |
33 |
27.27% |
|
|
Māori Party |
1.32% |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1.65% |
|
|
National Party |
44.01% |
54 |
42 |
12 |
54 |
44.63% |
|
|
New Zealand First Party |
8.66% |
11 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
9.09% |
|
|
United Future |
0.22% |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
* |
0.83% |
|
Totals |
97.73% |
120 |
71 |
50 |
121 |
|
100.00% |
Table 7 puts forward one scenario where the National party’s party vote drops 44%. In this scenario, the National Party will need both the Conservative Party and another party, such as ACT to pass legislation.
02 Dec 2014 Leave a comment

01 Dec 2014 Leave a comment
in income redistribution, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: The withering away of the Labour Party, the withering away of the proletariat
Andrew Little is looking to update Labour's definition of the 'working class': stuff.co.nz/national/polit… http://t.co/AQ9mJL7CQf—
NZ Stuff Politics (@NZStuffPolitics) November 30, 2014
The vanguard of the working class has decided the working classes are a bit too small these days to survive politically. The party vote of the New Zealand Labour Party was its lowest since its foundation in 1919 in the New Zealand 2014 general election.
Small-businesses owners, the self-employed and those on contracts are “workers”, Labour’s new leader Andrew Little says. Little has used his first major speech as leader to challenge Labour to update its definition of working people:
People on middle incomes, people who own a small business, people who work on contract who are doing their best to earn a crust and get ahead, they are feeling forgotten – mostly because in policy terms they are
Back in the day, a large number of Labour Party politicians were asked why did they join the Labour Party. Their answer was the Labour Party promised a better deal for the working man.

Unfortunately for the New Zealand Labour Party, the traditional working class is simply are not enough votes to form a government even when you add in the precariat. The party vote of the Labour Party in New Zealand in the last two general elections is been in about 24%. Two thirds of the New Zealand electorate gave their party vote to non-left parties. The party vote of the Labour Party and the green party summed to only 33% of the vote.

What is worse, if you are to believe these Daily Mail graphics, both the traditional working class and precariat area are a bit old, in case of the working class, they are retirement age. The average age of the working class is 66 and the average age of the precariat is 50.

Even the emergent service worker class is a bit of a disappointment for the Labour Part because they don’t seem to be the stock of shop-floor militancy, higher taxes, more regulation and a more generous welfare state. The emergent service workers have semi-skilled and skilled jobs with career structures and the potential for self-employment.
All in all, the left-wing political parties in New Zealand are in a bit of trouble.The green party is tapped out at a party vote of 10% because their hard left policies limit their growth into the middle class vote. The withering away of the proletariat is leading to a withering away the Labour Party.
Both the Labour Party and the Greens are full of university educated, middle-class radicals whose higher tax and bigger government agenda simply doesn’t appeal to the middle-class vote.
01 Dec 2014 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, labour economics, labour supply, minimum wage, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, welfare reform Tags: Carmel Sepuloni, inequality and poverty, James Heckman, James Julius Wilson, labour economics, Roland Fryer, welfare reform

Lindsay Mitchell has a nice blog today on the views of the new Labour Party spokesman on social development – the New Zealand ministerial portfolio covering social security and social welfare
Carmen Sepuloni disagrees with National Party’s policy of requiring solo mothers to look for work. She believed there should be support for sole parents to return to work, but not a strict compulsion:
It is a case by case basis. I don’t think it should be so stringent because it’s not necessarily to the benefit of their children.
The American sociologist James Julius Wilson in The Truly Disadvantaged (1987) and When Work Disappears (1996) wrote about how more children are growing-up without a working father living in the home and thereby gleaning the awareness that work is a central expectation of adult life:
. . . where jobs are scarce, where people rarely, if ever, have the opportunity to help their friends and neighbors find jobs. . . many people eventually lose their feeling of connectedness to work in the formal economy; they no longer expect work to be a regular, and regulating, force in their lives.
In the case of young people, they may grow up in an environment that lacks the idea of work as a central experience of adult life — they have little or no labor force attachment.
Carmel Sepuloni appears to believe that work is not a central expectation of adult life. Hard work used to be a core value of the Labour Party.
The toughest week of door knocking for the Labour Party in the 2011 general elections was after the Party promised that the in-work family tax credit should also be paid to welfare beneficiaries.
Voters in strong Labour Party areas were repulsed by the idea. These working-class Labour voters thought that the in-work family tax credit was for those that worked because they had earnt it through working on a regular basis. The party vote of the Labour Party in the 2011 New Zealand general election fell to its lowest level since its foundation in 1919 which was the year where it first contested an election.
When Sepuloni was on the Backbenchers TV show prior to the recent NZ general election, she was asked by the host whether she would support a $40 per hour minimum wage if that would mean equality. She did not hesitate to say yes.
Sepuloni does not seem to have noticed that wages must have something to do with the value of what you produce and the ability of your employer to sell it at a price that covers costs.
The economic literatures (Heckman 2011; Fryer 201o) and sociological literatures (Wilson 1978, 1987, 2009, 2011), particularly in the U.S. is suggesting that skill disparities resulting from a lower quality education and less access to good parenting, peer and neighbourhood environments produce most of the income gaps of racial and ethnic minorities rather than factors such as labour market discrimination.
Grounds for optimism about the effectiveness of welfare reform in overcoming barriers to employment lie in the success of the 1996 federal welfare reforms in the USA.
The subsequent declines in welfare participation rates and gains in employment were largest among the single mothers previously thought to be most disadvantaged: young (ages 18-29), mothers with children aged under seven, high school drop-outs, and black and Hispanic mothers. These low-skilled single mothers who were thought to face the greatest barriers to employment. Blank (2002) found that:
At the same time as major changes in program structure occurred during the 1990s, there were also stunning changes in behavior. Strong adjectives are appropriate to describe these behavioral changes.
Nobody of any political persuasion-predicted or would have believed possible the magnitude
of change that occurred in the behavior of low-income single-parent families over this decade.
People have repeatedly shown great ability to adapt and find jobs when the rewards of working increase and eligibility for welfare benefits tighten.
via Lindsay Mitchell: Carmel Sepuloni: be careful what you ask for.
28 Nov 2014 Leave a comment
in liberalism, Marxist economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: Green Left, Leftover Left, meddlesome preferences
27 Nov 2014 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of crime, law and economics, liberalism, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: Richard Poser, terrorism
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