We’ve got 5 years (now 1 hour left) to save world says Australia’s chief scientist Professor Penny Sackett, 4th December 2009 | Herald Sun

Professor Penny Sackett

via We’ve got 5 years to save world says Australia’s chief scientist Professor Penny Sackett | Herald Sun.

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Is welfare dependence optimal for whom – part 1? The labour-leisure trade-off and the rewards for working

The higher is the welfare benefit, the greater the probability that an individual will choose to go on welfare rather than work. Welfare dependency is the most rewarding leisure-labour trade-off for them.

The higher the wage on offer to a given worker in the labour market, the greater is the probability that they will choose to work rather than go on welfare. Working is the most rewarding leisure-labour trade-off for them.

Both the income and substitution effects of welfare benefits provide a disincentive to work. Higher income levels from generous welfare benefits induce higher consumption of all normal goods, including leisure. Income taxes and a high benefit abatement rate provides little incentive to work (the substitution effect) for lower paid workers and some second earners.

When confronted with the choice of a low-paying job and a generous welfare benefit, some will choose welfare over work. These workers are responding rationally to the (dis)incentives embedded in the labour market and welfare system. For them, welfare dependency is optimal.

This is particularly true for single parents with low labour market skills. One or more children may generate more net income (from increased welfare benefits) than working in the labour market and paying child care. If there is no expiry date for these welfare benefits, some individuals who go on welfare will stay on welfare for a long period of time.

Of course, the economics of crime comes up. A condition of receipt of welfare benefits in just about every welfare state is healthy adults must make themselves available for work and actively look for work.

Most of the essentials of the impact of welfare reform on labour-leisure trade-offs are captured, and most policy dilemmas are clearly defined within the framework in Figure 1. Figure 1 illustrates the position of two workers regarding whether to work (the participation decision) and how many hours to work.

Figure 1: The basic leisure-labour trade-off

The hourly wage rate represented by the symbol W in Figure 1 is traded-off against working fewer or no hours. This additional of leisure time includes: pure leisure; household production such as child care, cooking and cleaning; education and other human capital investments; and personal time such as self-care and sleep.

  • Worker 1 in Figure 1 works 40 hours while worker 2 with different circumstances works part-time in Figure 1.
  • Worker 1 could be a male with no dependents so not working full-time has a relatively high opportunity cost even if low paid.
  • Women who higher qualifications are also more likely to be persistent workers alternating between full-time career and part-time work when there are child care responsibilities.
  • Worker 2 in Figure 1 could be a sole parent or a second earner in a married couple with young children. For these workers, working can have a high opportunity cost because of the cost of child care, especially if the sole parent or second earner is low paid.
  • For workers with a high opportunity cost of work and low wages from working, for them, welfare dependents can be quite optimal.
  • Not so for society because the welfare benefits conditional on people making themselves available for work and taking steps to find it and stay in work.

The next few blogs will explain how various welfare reforms change the labour leisure trade-off for welfare recipients. There are three main parameters in any welfare system:

  1. the amount of the welfare benefit,
  2. the threshold for the benefit abatement on earned income, and
  3. the benefit reduction rate for income exceeding the abetement-free threshold.

This is not to ignore work testing and work requirements, these complications are postponed to later blogs. All of these parameters and the implications of changing them on labour supply will be discussed in future blogs.

The blogs so far

is-welfare-dependants-optimal-for-whom-part-one-the-labour-leisure-trade-off-and-the-rewards-for-working

is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-two-the-labour-supply-effects-of-welfare-benefit-abatement-rate-changes

is-welfare-dependency-optimal-for-whom-part-3-abatement-free-income-thresholds-and-labour-supply

is-welfare-dependents-optimal-for-the-whom-part-4-in-work-tax-credits-and-labour-supply

is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-5-higher-abatement-rates-and-labour-supply

is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-6-mandatory-work-requirements-and-labour-supply

is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-7-the-role-of-tagging-in-welfare-benefits-system

Four Distinct Foreign-Policy Orientations

Four Distinct Foreign-Policy Orientations

Internationalist: Willing to intervene in foreign affairs Isolationist: Reluctant to intervene in foreign affairs
Emphasis on the national interest as primary value in foreign policy National-interest interventionism National-interest isolationism
Significant emphasis on altruism in foreign policy Altruistic interventionism Altruistic isolationism

Source: Reichley 2000.

Will the Labour Party have any list MPs after the 2017 general election – updated?

A constant source of speculation prior to the 2014 general election in New Zealand was whether the Labour Party would win enough of the party vote to have any list MPs at all.

Will the Labour Party have any list MPs in the 2017 election if the Conservative party were to get into Parliament under the MMP system? The following tables are scenarios using the 2014 general election results as the base.

Table 1: status quo – 2014 New Zealand general election actual results

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs   % of MPs
ACT New Zealand 0.69% 1 1 0 1   0.83%
Green Party 10.70% 14 0 14 14   11.57%
Labour Party 25.13% 32 27 5 32   26.45%
Māori Party 1.32% 2 1 1 2   1.65%
National Party 47.04% 60 41 19 60   49.59%
New Zealand First Party 8.66% 11 0 11 11   9.09%
United Future 0.22% 0 1 0 1 * 0.83%
Totals 93.76% 120 71 50 121   100.00%

 

Table 2: Conservative Party wins electorate seat at expense of National Party

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs   % of MPs
ACT New Zealand 0.69% 1 1 0 1   0.83%
Conservative 3.97% 5 1 4 5   4.13%
Green Party 10.70% 13 0 13 13   10.74%
Labour Party 25.13% 31 27 4 31   25.62%
Māori Party 1.32% 2 1 1 2   1.65%
National Party 47.04% 57 40 17 57   47.11%
New Zealand First Party 8.66% 11 0 11 11   9.09%
United Future 0.22% 0 1 0 1 * 0.83%
Totals 97.73% 120 71 50 121   100.00%

If the Conservative Party were to win an electorate seat at the expense of the National Party, three of their five seats will come off the column of the National Party, one from the Greens, and one from Labour.

The Conservative party would have held the balance of power in the New Zealand Parliament, mostly the expense of the National Party.

Table 3: Conservative Party wins electorate seat at expense of Labour Party

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs   % of MPs
ACT New Zealand 0.69% 1 1 0 1   0.83%
Conservative 3.97% 5 1 4 5   4.13%
Green Party 10.70% 13 0 13 13   10.74%
Labour Party 25.13% 31 26 5 31   25.62%
Māori Party 1.32% 2 1 1 2   1.65%
National Party 47.04% 57 41 16 57   47.11%
New Zealand First Party 8.66% 11 0 11 11   9.09%
United Future 0.22% 0 1 0 1 * 0.83%
Totals 97.73% 120 71 50 121   100.00%

If the Conservative party were to win an electoral seat at the expense of the Labour Party, the National party does no better. It still loses three MPs. The Greens lose one MP; the Labour Party also loses a list MP.

Table 4: Conservative party reaches 5% threshold expense of the party vote of New Zealand First

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs   % of MPs
ACT New Zealand 0.69% 1 1 0 1   0.83%
Conservative 5.00% 6 0 6 6   4.96%
Green Party 10.70% 13 0 13 13   10.74%
Labour Party 25.13% 31 27 4 31   25.62%
Māori Party 1.32% 2 1 1 2   1.65%
National Party 47.04% 58 41 17 58   47.93%
New Zealand First Party 7.63% 9 0 9 9   7.44%
United Future 0.22% 0 1 0 1 * 0.83%
Totals 97.73% 120 71 50 121   100.00%

The Conservative party getting to 5% does a little better for the National Party. The National Party loses two list MPs, with the Greens losing one list MP as does the Labour Party.

Bumping up the party vote of the Conservative party by 1.03% wins two list MPs at the expense of New Zealand First! Such are the comings and goings of MMP.

Table 5: the Conservative Party reaches 5% threshold at the expense of the National Party

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs   % of MPs
ACT New Zealand 0.69% 1 1 0 1   0.83%
Conservative 5.00% 6 0 6 6   4.96%
Green Party 10.70% 13 0 13 13   10.74%
Labour Party 25.13% 31 27 4 31   25.62%
Māori Party 1.32% 2 1 1 2   1.65%
National Party 46.01% 56 41 15 56   46.28%
New Zealand First Party 8.66% 11 0 11 11   9.09%
United Future 0.22% 0 1 0 1 * 0.83%
Totals 97.73% 120 71 50 121   100.00%

If the Conservative party reaches the 5% threshold to qualify for list MPs at the next election at the expense of the party vote of the National Party, the National Party is now four MPs short of what it won in the 2014 general election in order to elect six Conservative MPs.

It seems the National Party was right in not easing the path of the Conservative Party into Parliament at the last election. Most of the Conservative Party MPs would come at the expense of the National Party and would have delivered a more complicated post-election coalition scenario.

The Conservative Party is next to no threat to the size of the Labour Party caucus, and the number of list MPs it might win at the next election.

Table 6: the Conservative party reaches 5% at the expense of the National Party and the National Party vote drops by a further 1% in favour of the Labour Party

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs   % of MPs
ACT New Zealand 0.69% 1 1 0 1   0.83%
Conservative 5.00% 6 0 6 6   4.96%
Green Party 10.70% 13 0 13 13   10.74%
Labour Party 26.13% 32 27 5 32   26.45%
Māori Party 1.32% 2 1 1 2   1.65%
National Party 45.01% 55 41 14 55   45.45%
New Zealand First Party 8.66% 11 0 11 11   9.09%
United Future 0.22% 0 1 0 1 * 0.83%
Totals 97.73% 120 71 50 121   100.00%

Only when the National Party’s vote drops towards 45% does the Conservative Party become its knight in shining armour, delivering an absolute majority in Parliament.

One reason that the National Party did not endorse the Conservative Party is such an endorsement would have put off socially liberal National Party voters. Letting that Conservative Party get into Parliament under its own steam does not risk that stigma.

When the Conservative Party is elected into Parliament under its own steam because of disenchantment with the National Party, as happens with all third term governments, the Conservative Party will deliver a fourth term to the National Party, as shown in Table 6.

The National Party have nothing to gain and something to lose in terms of party votes by endorsing the Conservative Party, and a lot to gain by letting it win seats in Parliament on its own merits.

Table 7: National Party’s party vote drops to 44%

Party name

Party Votes won

Party seat entitlement

No. of electorate seats won

No. of list MPs

Total MPs

 

% of MPs

ACT New Zealand

0.69%

1

1

0

1

 

0.83%

Conservative

5.00%

6

0

6

6

 

4.96%

Green Party

10.70%

13

0

13

13

 

10.74%

Labour Party

27.13%

33

26

7

33

 

27.27%

Māori Party

1.32%

2

1

1

2

 

1.65%

National Party

44.01%

54

42

12

54

 

44.63%

New Zealand First Party

8.66%

11

0

11

11

 

9.09%

United Future

0.22%

0

1

0

1

*

0.83%

Totals

97.73%

120

71

50

121

 

100.00%

Table 7 puts forward one scenario where the National party’s party vote drops 44%. In this scenario, the National Party will need both the Conservative Party and another party, such as ACT to pass legislation.

Child poverty monitor report finds that housing unaffordability is the cause of rising child poverty in NZ

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Some economics of zero-hours contracts – part 3: the fixed costs of working

The Unite Union, which represents about 7000 workers across New Zealand, has announced a campaign against zero-hours contracts. Zero-hours contracts have no specified hours or times of work so a worker could end up working 40 hours one week and none the next.

Unite national director Mike Treen did not know of the specific numbers of such contracts, but said these contracts were particularly common in the fast food industry, although they also appeared in some other industries.

Unite Union’s national director said that zero hours contracts made workers vulnerable to abuse as they became too nervous to speak out, for fear of having their hours reduced.

There’s no security and it puts enormous power in the hands of managers. People are extremely reluctant to assert their rights for simple things like breaks…

Treen admitted that zero-hours contracts gave employers flexibility, but pretended to know that the amount of flexibility employers actually needed was often exaggerated.


It’s not like they have huge swings or anything. They know how much they are going to sell on any particular day of the week during the year… We don’t expect everybody to have guaranteed hours but 80 per cent of the crew should be able to have it.

Treen said the union was not planning to push for a law change at this stage and would focus on addressing the issue during negotiations with fast food companies early next year.

The new leader of the opposition has promised to outlaw these zero our contracts when he gets into government. I wish him well in drafting a law that outlaws zero-hours contracts without outlawing some part-time and casual jobs as well.

 Zero-hours contracts and the class war

As is to be expected, the Guardian is rather hot and bothered about zero hours contracts. One of its columnists referred to those on zero-hours contracts as the new reserve army of the unemployed:

It is a pity Karl Marx was not around last week to comment on the news that 90% of the workers at Sports Direct are on zero-hours contracts.

The author of the Communist Manifesto would also have had plenty to say about the news that the official estimates of those working in this form of casualised labour had shot up by 25%…

It is safe to say Marx would have cavilled with those who see zero-hour contracts as an expression of Britain’s economic strength, a demonstration of flexible labour markets in action.

He would have thought "reserve army of labour" a better description of conditions in which workers were expected to be permanently on call for an employer.

The Guardian went on to admit that the reserve army of unemployed are not as discontented as they should be:

It’s only fair to say that some employees are content to be on zero-hours contracts.

Some students, for example, want to combine work with study and are willing to turn up when summoned. That’s also true of older workers topping up their pensions with a bit of irregular, part-time work.

Despite this, the class war continues as does the immiseration of the proletariat and the long-term decline in profits that will lead to the crisis in capitalism and, with a bit of luck, the inevitable proletarian revolution:

Marx would have seen zero-hours contracts as the continuation of a long historical trend, stretching back to the mid-1960s when the profitability of western manufacturing firms started to fall.

From that moment, he would say, the search was on for measures to boost profits, and this has manifested itself in a number of ways: by direct attacks on organised labour; by the increased financialisation of the economy; by the search for cheap raw materials whatever the environmental cost; and by asset bubbles.

Accordingly, zero-hours contracts are the response to tougher conditions facing firms as a result of the financial crisis.

Reversing that trend will require more than legislation: it will mean tackling one of the root causes of that crisis: the imbalance of power in the labour market.

A more mellow writer in the Guardian brought up the imagery of the interwar depression:

Of course it is difficult for employers to match the demand to work nine to five and yet also to be served on a 24-hour basis, cheaply and effectively by someone, not them.

But there are other ways to solve this conundrum than indenturing workers or making them wait at the metaphorical factory gate for a tap on the shoulder.

The fixed costs of working

I will start my third blog on the economics of zero-hours by reviewing the economic literature on the fixed costs of working. Helpfully, this literature predicts that zero hours contracts really shouldn’t exist much at all.

The literature on the economics of the fixed costs of work arose out of the economics of retirement and the economics of the labour supply of married women, and in particular of young mothers. This literature was attempting to explain why older workers, or young mothers either worked a minimum number of hours, or not at all.

Fixed costs of working constrain the choices that older employees make about how many hours and days that are worthwhile working part-time. For employees, the fixed costs of going to work limit the numbers of days and number of hours per day that a worker is willing to work part-time. The timing costs of working at scheduled times and a fixed number of days per week can make working fewer full-time days, rather than fewer hours per day less disruptive to the leisure and other uses of personal time.

The fixed costs of working induced older workers to retire completely, and young mothers to withdraw from the workforce for extended periods of time, unless these workers worked either full-time or enough hours part-time each day and through the week to justify the costs of commuting and otherwise disrupting their day and week.

In the case of older workers, there were the fixed costs of commuting and other disruptions to their day. In the case of mothers, there are additional fixed costs of working arising from child care and the commuting and other rather rigid time commitments of picking up and dropping off younger children at school and to day care centres.

The fixed costs of going to work

There is a minimum number of hours of work that will be supplied by different workers that is set by the fixed costs of working. These fixed costs of work arise from commuting time and from dressing and other tasks involved in preparing for the trip to work. These costs are fixed because they do not vary with the number of hours to be worked per day and the amount of effort to be exerted while working (Cogan 1981; Hamermesh and Donald 2007).


 

A worker will not accept a job offer or continue in a particular job unless they work sufficient hours so that these fixed costs of going to work are recovered along with receiving sufficient reward for giving up pursuing other job openings open now and in the future and for forgoing leisure and the option of making other uses of their time (Cogan 1981; Hamermesh and Donald 2007).

Cogan (1981) estimated that the average fixed time and money costs of married women entering the workforce was 28 per cent of their earnings, and also estimated that the minimum number of hours a married woman was willing to supply in the labour market was 1,300 hours per year.


There may be a preference for fewer working days over fewer hours per day to reduce the time and money costs of going to work. Donald and Hamermesh (2009) estimated that fixed costs of going to work are equal to about 8 per cent of income. The fixed costs of working provide an incentive to workers to bunch activities.

The fixed timing costs of labour market entry

A surprisingly large part of the fixed costs of working comes from disruption in the ability to use spare time effectively (Donald and Hamermesh 2009, 2007). Entering or remaining in the workforce for any time at all significantly affects the effective allocation and enjoyment of time outside of working hours. This disruption to the effective use of the time that is left outside of working hours is the fixed timing cost of labour market entry.

One way to reduce this disruption from entering the labour force at all is to seek to reduce the number of days worked per week rather than the number of hours per day.

Leisure and other private uses of time are displaced if the individual takes or stays in even a small part-time job. Workers must use their reduced amount of remaining free time to catch-up on tasks, often at the weekend that they could have done if they were not working.

Leisure time may be the first to go because many personal tasks can be rescheduled but must be done eventually. These range from cooking, eating, and cleaning to personal upkeep, sleep and rest. Tasks must be hurried or done to a lower quality (Donald and Hamermesh 2009).

Routine – having the same schedule from day to day – saves time (Hamermesh 2005). Routine enables people to economise on the set-up costs of consumption, leisure and going to work.

Entering the work-force for any time at all to work even a small number of hours per day or per week calls for new daily and weekly routines and disrupts many existing routines that make better use of leisure, family and other uses of time (Hamermesh 2005).

Entering the workforce constrains the unfettered use of spare time. Working increases the fixed costs of coordinating family and leisure times. Workers must surround working times with buffers to ensure they are not late for work.

One reality of rising incomes is time become more valuable. A rise in wages raises the value of time because time is a finite and irreplaceable resource. Time cannot be stored or bought and sold but people can try and make better use of it.

With only 24 hours still in every day, the cost of time-intensive activities including working will rise as incomes increase. People shift away from time intensive activities and buy more of those products that are time saving or which are less time intensive to consume. Time is money and this maxim applies with greater resonance as incomes and wealth increase.

Another important fixed time costs of labour market entry is its impact on the efficiency of the remaining time devoted to leisure, household production and other activities when even a small amount of market work is undertaken. Spare time is of much less value if part of every day is to be spent at work.

Fixed timing costs arise because of a need to hurry to get to work on time and forego other activities to be rested for work the next morning. The requirement to attend work blocks out certain days from major other uses of that day and reduces the time available in any day of part-day work for leisure, family time and household production.

Household production refers to the goods and services made at home which could be purchased in the market from a third-party. These include food preparation, cooking, carer obligations, and household cleaning. There are also various other household tasks that must perform for one-self which are essentially personal maintenance and leisure.

Working even a few hours can reduce the worker’s efficiency in household production and other non-market activities and may require the worker to buy goods and services that were previously produced at home. This reduces the net financial rewards of working. Fewer full days of work, rather than fewer hours per day is less disruptive to leisure and the other uses of personal time.

The fixed time costs of market work might induce workers to engage in different mixes of other activities. The additional hours of work during the week affect the allocation of time on a non-working weekend day. They reduce leisure time on weekends and increase weekend time devoted to household production by those who do market work on week days. Workers catch up at the weekend on the household production that the rigidities of their market work prevented them from doing during the week.

Stress is an important fixed cost of working. Workers spend non-market time worrying or thinking about work-problems. Even a few hours of market work will place a worker at risk of some stress.

Floors and ceilings on the structure of the working week

The fixed costs of going to work and the fixed time cost of labour market entry both place constraints on the willingness of workers to accept a job offer involving a zero-hours contract. These contracts must offer something extra over competing job options.

The employer must offer something extra to prospective recruits to induce them to sign a zero-hours contract. There must be something substantial to overcome both the fixed costs of work, such as commuting, and the less obvious but still substantial fixed costs of labour market entry.

Any commitment to work, such as working on a zero hours contract, carries with it significant costs in terms of disruption to the rest of the day, the rest of the working week and the amount of the weekend that is spent on leisure versus resting from work and catching up on tasks that otherwise could have been done during the week but for work commitments.

A zero-hours contract must pay enough over the expected life time of the job to make up for the costs of going to work as well as the disruption and loss of leisure time and also the pure disutility of working before the worker breaks even on working.

As the Unite Union official noted, zero hours contracts appear to be most prevalent in the fast food sector. Job turnover rates in the sector can be several hundred per cent per year.

Many of the workers in the fast food sector, as the Unite union official himself noted, are young. Teenagers and young workers changed jobs frequently, particularly those who are studying part-time or full-time work, injuring the summer.

As such, zero-hours contracts in any particular job will have a short expected life over which the teenager or young worker would have to recoup for the fixed cost of working and the fixed cost of any labour market entry. Employers would have to offer some sort of premium or other implicit guarantee of regular work to induce prospective young recruits to sign a zero hours contract.

The type of workers who will profit from signing a zero hours contracts of those workers with few other demands on their time and flexible days. The workers who might find zero hours contract appealing will be those who do have much routine in their day. Workers who have a considerable amount of routine in their day such as because of family commitments will not find the wage offers in zero hours contracts appealing.

There will be job sorting: workers who have low fixed costs of working and low fixed costs of labour market entry will be attracted to zero-hours contracts.

Employers profit from offering zero hours contracts to workers who don’t want to make a regular commitment to come into work every day. Teenagers and students fall into this category, which makes it less surprising that zero hours contracts appear to be most common in the fast food sector.

There are mutual gains in the fast food sector to both employers and workers from zero hours contracts when there are peaks and troughs in product demand, and some teenagers and young workers have a low cost of coming into work at short notice.

Reality check: Is New Zealand remote and distant?

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Withering away of the proletariat alert: the New Zealand Labour Party is redefining up the working class

The vanguard of the working class has decided the working classes are a bit too small these days to survive politically. The party vote of the New Zealand Labour Party was its lowest since its foundation in 1919 in the New Zealand 2014 general election.

Small-businesses owners, the self-employed and those on contracts are “workers”, Labour’s new leader Andrew Little says. Little has used his first major speech as leader to challenge Labour to update its definition of working people:

People on middle incomes, people who own a small business, people who work on contract who are doing their best to earn a crust and get ahead, they are feeling forgotten – mostly because in policy terms they are

Back in the day, a large number of Labour Party politicians were asked why did they join the Labour Party. Their answer was the Labour Party promised a better deal for the working man.

On the decline

Unfortunately for the New Zealand Labour Party, the traditional working class is simply are not enough votes to form a government even when you add in the precariat. The party vote of the Labour Party in New Zealand in the last two general elections is been in about 24%. Two thirds of the  New Zealand electorate gave their party vote to non-left parties. The party vote of the Labour Party and the green party summed to only 33% of the vote.

At the bottom: The 'precariat' group is 'marked by the lack of any significant amount of economic, cultural or social capital', said Professor Mike Savage, of the London School of Economics and Political Science

What is worse, if you are to believe these Daily Mail graphics, both the traditional working class and precariat area are a bit old, in case of the working class, they are retirement age. The average age of the working class is 66 and the average age of the precariat is 50.

Financially insecure

Even the emergent service worker class is a bit of a disappointment for the Labour Part because they don’t seem to be the stock of shop-floor militancy, higher taxes, more regulation and a more generous welfare state. The emergent service workers have semi-skilled and skilled jobs with career structures and the potential for self-employment.

All in all, the left-wing political parties in New Zealand are in a bit of trouble.The green party is tapped out at a party vote of 10% because their hard left policies limit their growth into the middle class vote. The withering away of the proletariat is leading to a withering away the Labour Party.

Both the Labour Party and the Greens are full of university educated, middle-class radicals whose higher tax and bigger government agenda simply doesn’t appeal to the middle-class vote.

Lindsay Mitchell – Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni: be careful what you ask for

The Truly Disadvantaged

Lindsay Mitchell has a nice blog today on the views of the new Labour Party spokesman on social development – the New Zealand ministerial portfolio covering social security and social welfare

Carmen Sepuloni disagrees with National Party’s policy of requiring solo mothers to look for work. She believed there should be support for sole parents to return to work, but not a strict compulsion:

It is a case by case basis. I don’t think it should be so stringent because it’s not necessarily to the benefit of their children.

The American sociologist James Julius Wilson in The Truly Disadvantaged (1987) and When Work Disappears (1996) wrote about how more children are growing-up without a working father living in the home and thereby gleaning the awareness that work is a central expectation of adult life:

. . . where jobs are scarce, where people rarely, if ever, have the opportunity to help their friends and neighbors find jobs. . . many people eventually lose their feeling of connectedness to work in the formal economy; they no longer expect work to be a regular, and regulating, force in their lives.

In the case of young people, they may grow up in an environment that lacks the idea of work as a central experience of adult life — they have little or no labor force attachment.

Carmel Sepuloni appears to believe that work is not a central expectation of adult life. Hard work used to be a core value of the Labour Party.

The toughest week of door knocking for the Labour Party in the 2011 general elections was after the Party promised that the in-work family tax credit should also be paid to welfare beneficiaries.

Voters in strong Labour Party areas were repulsed by the idea. These working-class Labour voters thought that the in-work family tax credit was for those that worked because they had earnt it through working on a regular basis. The party vote of the Labour Party in the 2011 New Zealand general election fell to its lowest level since its foundation in 1919 which was the year where it first contested an election.

When Sepuloni was on the Backbenchers TV show prior to the recent NZ general election, she was asked by the host whether she would support a $40 per hour minimum wage if that would mean equality. She did not hesitate to say yes.

Sepuloni does not seem to have noticed that wages must have something to do with the value of what you produce and the ability of your employer to sell it at a price that covers costs. 

Front Cover

The economic literatures (Heckman 2011; Fryer 201o) and sociological literatures (Wilson 1978, 1987, 2009, 2011), particularly in the U.S. is suggesting that skill disparities resulting from a lower quality education and less access to good parenting, peer and neighbourhood environments produce most of the income gaps of racial and ethnic minorities rather than factors such as labour market discrimination.

Front Cover

Grounds for optimism about the effectiveness of welfare reform in overcoming barriers to employment lie in the success of the 1996 federal welfare reforms in the USA.

The subsequent declines in welfare participation rates and gains in employment were largest among the single mothers previously thought to be most disadvantaged: young (ages 18-29), mothers with children aged under seven, high school drop-outs, and black and Hispanic mothers. These low-skilled single mothers who were thought to face the greatest barriers to employment. Blank (2002) found that:

At the same time as major changes in program structure occurred during the 1990s, there were also stunning changes in behavior. Strong adjectives are appropriate to describe these behavioral changes.

Nobody of any political persuasion-predicted or would have believed possible the magnitude
of change that occurred in the behavior of low-income single-parent families over this decade.

People have repeatedly shown great ability to adapt and find jobs when the rewards of working increase and eligibility for welfare benefits tighten.

via Lindsay Mitchell: Carmel Sepuloni: be careful what you ask for.

Richard Posner (1986) opines on comparable worth and commercial reality

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The three golden rules of climate science are test, test and test

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The meddlesome preferences of the Green Left

Richard A. Posner: Wire Trap | New Republic

via Richard A. Posner: Wire Trap | New Republic.

Decongesting Auckland – For real – by Andrew Atkin

The new board game for the Left over Left

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