The pros and cons of America’s primary electoral system

Reagan began seeking a rapprochement with the Kremlin 15 months before Gorbachev took office, this Day 1984

Reagan spoke of common concerns, the mutual desire for peace and the urgent need to address “dangerous misunderstandings” between Moscow and Washington.

NZ, Oz & US real housing price index, January 1975 – September 2015 @philtwyford @JulieAnneGenter

Notice that New Zealand housing prices were pretty flat until the passage of the Resource Management Act in 1993.

Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed.

@garethmorgannz are the poor are just like everyone else except that they have less money?

There is a large literature on what money can buy in terms of improved child outcomes. Central to the left-wing view is the poorer are just like everyone else but they have less money. Susan Mayer, a proud registered Democrat all her life, kick-started the literature challenging this with her book in 1997.

More money does help the children of poor families but the effect is considerably less–and more complicated–than is generally thought because as Mayer says ‘once children’s basic material needs are met, characteristics of their parents become more important to how they turn out than anything additional money can buy.

Doubling the income of poor families would lift most children above the poverty line, it would have virtually no effect on their test scores and only a slight effect on social behaviour. Among her findings, which have largely survive the test of time, are:

  1. Higher parental income has little impact on reading and mathematics test scores.
  2. Higher income increases the number of years that children attend school by only one-fifth of a year.
  3. Higher income does not reduce the amount of time sons are idle as young adults.
  4. Higher income reduces the probability of daughters growing up to be single mothers by 8 to 20 percent.

Mayer found that as parents have more money to spend, they usually spend the extra money on food, especially food eaten in restaurants; larger homes; and on more automobiles. As a result, children are likely to be better housed and better fed, but not necessarily better educated or better prepared for high-income jobs. Mayer said that her findings do not endorse massive cuts in welfare:

My results do not show that we can cut income support programs with impunity…Indeed, they suggest that income support programs have been relatively successful in maintaining the material living standard of many poor children.

Mayer found that non-monetary factors play a bigger role than previously thought in determining how children overcome disadvantage as she explains. Parent-child interactions appear to be important for children’s success, but the study shows little evidence that a parent’s income has a large influence on parenting practices.

Mayer said that if money alone were responsible for overcoming such problems as unwed pregnancy, low educational achievement and male idleness, states with higher welfare benefits could expect to see reductions in these problems. In reality

once we control all relevant state characteristics, the apparent effect of increasing Aid to Families with Dependent Children benefits is very small.

Social economics has been here before. In the 1960s, the Coleman Report rather than finding that investing in schools improved child outcomes found that most variation between child outcomes depended on family backgrounds. When we talking about schools not matter in too much we are talking about average bad schools and average good school not American inner-city schools into war zones.

Source: Savings, Genes, and Fade-Out, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty.

Behavioural genetics has been a bit of a blow to those that think greater parental investment can raise child outcomes as Bryan Caplan has explained:

Economists like Nobel laureate Gary Becker have been studying the family for decades.  Like most modern parents, economists usually take it for granted that “parental investment” has large, lasting effects on adult outcomes.

And yet adoption and twin researchers find surprisingly little evidence for this this assumption(link is external)!  With a few notable exceptions, the measured effect of upbringing on adult outcomes is small to zero.  Adoptees barely resemble their adopting families, identical twins are much more similar than fraternal twins, and identical twins raised apart are often as similar as identical twins raised together.  Almost all traits run in families, but the overarching reason is heredity.

Caplan notes that while it is extremely difficult for parental investments to change the adult outcomes of his children, it is well within his power to give his children a happy childhood.

Trigger warning: American political junkies – the cost of presidential campaigns since Lincoln

The man most responsible for money in American politics is President Obama. He refused public funding in the 2008 presidential election of $84 million. This is because he could raise 10 times that online. Senator McCain accepted public funding because his fundraising prospects were so poor for the general election.

Source: The Crazy Cost of Becoming President, From Lincoln to Obama | Mother Jones

Here’s how Scandinavian countries pay for their spending

https://twitter.com/conradhackett/status/683884984772341760

40% of New Zealanders aged 65 to 69 still work

1996 US welfare reforms & single mother employment rates @garethmorgannz @geoffsimmonz

image

Source: Ron Haskins (2015).

@TBillTheProf shows that SF #livingwage sends hiring standards through the roof

Recent field research in San Francisco and North Carolina restaurants found that after San Francisco living wage increase, managers were pickier about whom they hire, because they want workers to be worth the higher cost. The San Francisco minimum wage is now $12.25, and all employers are required to offer paid sick days and contribute to their employees’ health insurance. 

Source: How worker-friendly laws changed life as a server in San Francisco restaurants – The Washington Post.

The study is useful because of instead of studying the myths and realities about how a higher minimum wage somehow motivates workers to be more productive and offset part or all of its cost to employers, the study investigates how the minimum wage, a living wage, affects hiring standards.

Employers of low skilled, low-wage workers look for workers who are friendly and reliable. As the study concedes, you can teach people the skills they need as long as they are friendly and reliable.

In San Francisco, recruits not only have to be friendly and reliable, they are expected to have experience. The living wage shuts out inexperienced and new workers, which promotes social exclusion.

Minimum wage workers in San Francisco are noticeably older and better educated than those in North Carolina and recruited after more intensive sorting and screening against the hiring standards for the vacancy:

Rather than viewing servers as essentially interchangeable labourers who can be quickly and easily trained if they possess a modicum of personal hygiene and a friendly personality, employers in San Francisco exhibited a clear description of what a professional server was and the explicit and implicit skills required.

The study did not enquire into what happened to applicants who failed to meet the higher hiring standard induced by the living wage increase. As is standard with the champions of the living wage, they do not want to talk about those excluded by the living wage rise.

Poverty Rates by Mothers’ Marital Status, 1987 to 2013

image

Source: Congressional Research Service.https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41917.pdf

Some #tax cuts produce more growth than others

It is the 1960s hippies who are letting marijuana decriminalisation down at the ballot box

New study indicates there are 8 Conservative Social Psychologists

Source: New Study Indicates Existence of Eight Conservative Social Psychologists | HeterodoxAcademy.org.

Source: New Study Indicates Existence of Eight Conservative Social Psychologists | HeterodoxAcademy.org.

Source: New Study Indicates Existence of Eight Conservative Social Psychologists | HeterodoxAcademy.org.

HT: Rafe Champion

The poverty rate is not a reliable policy statistic @HelenKellyUnion @apdrmabsc @keith_ng

The official poverty rate in the USA missed poverty falling to near zero by the eve of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007 as shown in the chart below. That is no small oversight. It calls into question whether the official poverty rate which is based on a percentage of the median income is a useful guide to the magnitude of social problems before us.

Source: Meyer and Sullivan (2012), p. 153.

Meyer and Sullivan calculated a consumption based measure of poverty and found that the poverty rate fell much faster than previously single digits.

People worry about poor not have enough, not how much income they have before taxes and social insurance. The official poverty rate is before tax and social insurance and therefore before how much the poor actually have to get by with after receiving social assistance of all types and sources.

Interestingly, the divergence between consumption-based poverty and income-based poverty started with the election of Reagan and picked up the US federal welfare reforms in 1996. The number of children in poverty in deep poverty fell immediately after those 1996 US welfare reforms. There is a lesson in that for New Zealand.

It is widely agreed that the official poverty rate is flawed. Measuring poverty as a percentage of median income, usually 60% of the median income, means that poverty may not fall despite incomes doubling every generation and more.

Indeed, increases in the median income can increase poverty without anyone being poorer. This is because the gap between the median income earners and the poor increased such as the New Zealand in 2014 without any of the poor experiencing a fall in income and social support.

The reason why the median is pulling away from the bottom – the reason why income distribution is fanning out – is more people going to university and securing the associated wage premium and the greater rewards for talent in a globalised world.

The forces behind greater educational attainment and the globalisation of markets benefit all and in particular those of bottom of the income distribution through a more prosperous, dynamic, innovative society.

More on the reversing gender pay gap or men getting their comeuppances?

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