Has Bruce Ackerman just said the dumbest thing ever said?

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Financial crises surprisingly common, but few countries close their banks

The left-wing solution to Greek bankruptcy

Syriza vote shares and seats won since its formation

The Coalition of the Radical Left[(Syriza) was founded in 2004 as a coalition of left-wing and radical left Greek parties.

Figure 1: Syriza vote percentages and Parliamentary seats won in Greek national elections

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250 seats will be distributed on the basis of proportional representation, with a threshold of 3% required for entry into  the Greek parliament. 50 additional seats are awarded as a majority bonus to the party that wins the largest number of votes.

Why Greece joined the Euro

The roots of Greece’s crisis are simple. Before Greece joined the Eurozone, investors treated it as a middle-income country with poor governance — which is to say, a credit risk.

After Greece joined the Eurozone, investors thought that Greece was no longer a credit risk — they figured, if push came to shove, other Eurozone members like Germany would bail Greece out. They were wrong.

Michael Dooley put forward a theory of speculative attacks on currencies as insurance attacks on currencies for emerging markets after the East Asian financial crisis:

First generation models of speculative attacks show that apparently random speculative attacks on policy regimes can be fully consistent with rational and well-informed speculative behaviour.

Unfortunately, models driven by a conflict between exchange rate policy and other macroeconomic objectives do not seem consistent with important empirical regularities surrounding recent crises in emerging markets. This has generated considerable interest in models that associate crises with self-fulfilling shifts in private expectations.

In this paper we develop a first generation model based on an alternative policy conflict. Credit constrained governments accumulate reserve assets in order to self-insure against shocks to national consumption. Governments also insure poorly regulated domestic financial markets.

Given this policy regime, a variety of internal and external shocks generate capital inflows to emerging markets followed by successful and anticipated speculative attacks.

We argue that a common external shock generated capital inflows to emerging markets in Asia and Latin America after 1989. Country specific factors determined the timing of speculative attacks. Lending policies of industrial country governments and international organizations account for contagion, that is, a bunching of attacks over time.

His model was not within the context of a currency union but his basic theory is correct.

There are speculative attacks on a currency or a bank run after foreign markets revises their estimates of the available central bank reserves and international lines of credit to bail out the banking systems and/or foreign debt.

Michael Dooley was dealing with the emerging economies of Southeast Asia and their official lines of credit that insure their foreign exchange liabilities and domestic banking system. Greece is about lines of credit for similar purposes to other European union member states.

via 12 charts and maps that explain the Greek crisis – Vox and The Most Important Graphs of 2011 – The Atlantic.

The reason why New Zealand should rule out helping Greece!

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Greece is a tiny part of the European economies so it doesn’t matter that much to the rest of the European Union what happens to Greece. The only people will notice the sovereign default of Greece once the breathless journalism has died down are Greeks themselves as they rebuild their banking and monetary system against a background of a government run by coffee shop Marxists.

Greece in 7 charts

A hilarious Monty Python sketch explains why Greece is in a huge crisis

https://youtu.be/ur5fGSBsfq8

Legal systems and property rights in Greece and Russia – Index of Economic Freedom rankings compared

Figure 1: Index of Economic Freedom rankings for legal systems and property rights, Greece, Russia and USA, 2012

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Source: Economic Freedom of the World – Annual Report 2014 | www.freetheworld.com.

Overall, there are not that many differences between Greece and Russia in the quality of their legal systems and property rights. Don’t go to the police in Russia and good luck trying to enforce contracts in Greece.

Greeks don’t think much of their public service

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Doing business in the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) – World Bank rankings

Figure 1: Doing Business rankings, PIGS, 2014

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Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015.

All in all, Italy and Greece are a dog of a place to enforce a contract. The long-suffering taxpayer is better off paying taxes in Greece than in Italy! Not surprisingly, trading across borders is the greatest strength in doing business in the PIGS. The European Union does have some benefits.

Figure 2: Doing Business rankings, Greece and Italy, 2014

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Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015.

All in all, Italy and Greece are equally bad places to do business and Italy is much worse when it comes to taxes. About the only saving graces of Italy is the registration of property and the protection of minority interests in companies.

Figure 3: Doing Business rankings, Spain and Portugal, 2014

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Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015.

Spain and in particular Portugal are much better places to do business than Italy and Greece.

John Oliver’s 3-minute explanation of Greece’s crisis

https://youtu.be/8hftSyFK0Xs

Gambling for Redemption and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises in the Eurozone

Greece (61st) is ranked one above the Russia in the World Bank’s Doing Business Survey 2015

Figure 1: Greek and Russian Doing Business sub-rankings, 2015

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Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015.

As long as you’re not in a construction or export business, and don’t mind waiting for your electricity, it’s better to do business in Russia than in Greece! The main difference between Russia and Greece is its membership of the European Union makes it easy to export?

In Russia, it’s easier to start a business, register property and enforce contracts than it is in Greece!

ATM line inside the Greek Parliament

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