@garethmorgannz’s @grantrobertson1’s #UBI is worse than I thought @JordNZ

The Universal Basic Income of $11,000 per adult proposed by the Morgan Foundation and floated as a idea to consider by the New Zealand Labour Party leaves the poor way below even that the stingy as the poverty line switch is that 50% relative poverty line. Little wonder that the Labour Party said that increasing the Universal Basic Income to avoid leaving current beneficiaries worth off would lead to a very high tax rate.

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Source: A Universal Basic Income may be a good idea – but we will still need social security that works.

How the Tax Burden is Shared between Buyers and Sellers

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@garethmorgannz the @TaxpayersUnion #UBI report isn’t bonkers @JordNZ

A clever man can climb out of the hole a wise man would not have fallen into. In responding to my Taxpayers’ Union paper on a Universal Basic Income, Gareth Morgan just kept digging.

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His first response was to say a Universal Basic Income would not be implemented immediately. This avoids retirees taking home $50 per week less than currently under NZ Superannuation.

Gareth Morgan’s solution is to say that only those currently under 50 will have to rely on a Universal Basic Income.

Only people who are today under the age of 50 could be expected to retire under the UBI policy, the policy would not apply to existing superannuitants.

Generation Rent have to pay higher taxes to keep current retirees in the superannuation style they have become accustomed. Those aged over 50 are also grandfathered in to the existing level of income support from New Zealand Superannuation.

Generation Rent will have to save their Universal Basic Income so they do not live in poverty when they retire in as little as 15 years from the date of introduction. As Gareth Morgan explains when referring to 40-year-olds:

For the 25 years prior to retirement they will receive the UBI on top of their wages. If they save a good portion of it they will have nest egg at retirement which they can use in retirement to supplement the UBI (which is more modest than today’s NZ Super).

At least the Labour Party admitted that a Universal Basic Income of $11,000 per adult was inadequate and will have to be supplemented so that no one is left worse off:

After all, $11,000 is a lower income than what is currently paid out as part of New Zealand Super. If the figure is too low, then the benefits of security and freedom promised by a UBI may not be realised.

On the other hand, if the figure is pushed higher, taxes will have to rise, possibly to an unrealistically high figure. (Morgan’s $11,000 UBI is funded through a flat tax of 30%.) There is, therefore, a real feasibility-sufficiency trade-off.

It may be that a UBI has to be supplemented by other transfers to ensure that the most vulnerable groups have enough income.

As for single parents relying on a welfare benefit, they are $150 a week short under a Universal Basic Income. Where is Sue Bradford when you need her to go on about beneficiary bashing.

Gareth Morgan’s proposed solution to this $150 per week cut in the incomes of the needy is to suggest that the non-custodial parent of the child should give up part or all of their Universal Basic Income to support their child:

Each child has two parents, the UBI is paid to both whether they live together or not.

It is totally feasible that the UBI of both parents could be required to be directed to support the children in the event of separation. In the Kahuna the amount paid per family would be $22,000 after tax – more than is paid to a sole parent family now.

This hard line on child support will make being a non-custodial parent of a child a rather risky venture under a Universal Basic Income. A Universal Basic Income is supposed to make you feel very secure against misfortune as Gareth Morgan explained back in 2011:

…let’s agree on what is a minimum income every adult should have in order to live a dignified life and then see what flows from that. We begin by specifying the income level below which we are not prepared to see anyone having to live.

If you are the non-custodial parent and down on your luck – unemployed, sick or an invalid – you cannot rely on your Universal Basic Income as a backstop because part or all of that is already transferred to support your child.

Paternity suits will take on a new meaning because you can lose your Universal Basic Income. The Universal Basic Income with Gareth Morgan’s ad hoc amendments this week has strings attached on whether you or someone else receives your Universal Basic Income. That make or break decision will be up to the Family Court and the Child Support Agency at IRD.

I am not sure how a Universal Basic Income deals with deadbeat dads at home and living abroad. Central to its funding is abolition of the welfare state bureaucracy to save $2 billion.

Those down on their luck will not have a welfare state bureaucracy to turn to if their child support does not come through or have nothing to live on after their child support is paid.

Now let Gareth Morgan explain why he wanted to get rid of that welfare state bureaucracy and replace it with a Universal Basic Income:

We must finally admit that with all the paternalistic will in the world there is no chance that public servants can adequately identify and monitor eligibility for a needs-based benefit regime.

We should save ourselves the torture of continuously getting it wrong and designing an endless stream of discriminatory “fixes” to cover our mistakes in finding targeted perfection.

The reality is that people’s circumstances are dynamic and that they will change their behaviour to suit the design of the benefit regime making the chicken and egg nature of determining “needs” an exercise in futility.

The important thing is to be fair and to have a consensus on the level of income that we all have an unconditional entitlement to in order to live a dignified life.

Gareth Morgan seems to throw Generation Rent and non-custodial parents under the bus to deliver on his dream. They both have to give up much of their Universal Basic Income either to their children or their KiwiSaver to fill the growing number of gaps in his Big Kahuna. Their unconditional entitlement to be able to live a dignified life through a Universal Basic Income of $11,000 per adult has a lot of strings attached to it and cracks to fall through with no safety net.

Wear a condom, do not divorce and do not be under 50 are the secrets to enjoying a Universal Basic Income. If not, you are on your own. Your Universal Basic income is already spoken for.

Political bias, free trade and @berniesanders @realdonaldtrump

Is the #livingwage racist?

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But @BernieSanders says the Social Security crisis is a lie!

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How to refute a 9/11 conspiracy theorist

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The 1st @Paul Krugman (1994) on “Competitiveness: A Dangerous Obsession”

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Source: Bonus Quotation of the Day… – Cafe Hayek.

The 1st @PaulKrugman on globalisation & development @harleyhs #TPPANoWay

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Source: Paul Krugman (1997) Enemies of the WTO.

This visiting American education professor who specialises in globalisation, claimed in the linked radio interview that real wages had fallen in the USA and Mexico. Even for the bottom 20% of the USA, their after-tax household incomes increased by 40% since 1979, with most of that after the signing of NAFTA.

Everything that is bad in crony capitalist Mexico is the fault of NAFTA if our visiting academic is to be believed despite trade tripling and investment increasing 600% because of NAFTA.

Women’s earnings growth has been perfectly fine over the last 40 years despite the horrors of NAFTA and the attack on unions and workers rights by a top 1% emboldened by NAFTA and globalisation, if our visiting academic is to be believed.

Gender analysis, gender analysis, where is his gender analysis of NAFTA? Few labour market statistics make sense without being broken down by sex because of the immense economic progress of women in the last 50 years. Can NAFTA claim credit for that?

Did Earth Hour save any power? @GreenpeaceNZ

@Greenpeace another example of how activism is overrated #HAH2016

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@James_ARobins yet another @MaxRashbrooke #inequality fact check

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Source: Do inequality and poverty matter? | Pundit – Brian Easton (2016) .

I will outsource to Brian Easton, the CTU, the CTU’s Bill Rosenberg and Closer Together Whakatata Mai – reducing inequalities because the continual correction of Max Rashbrooke on poverty and inequality is becoming tiring.

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Source: Love in the time of crisis, James Robins, Wednesday, 16 March 2016, Newstalk NZ.

Inequality has not risen for at least 20 years as Bill Rosenberg tweeted. The rise in inequality in the late 1980s and early 1990s was followed by an employment boom that lasted to 2009.

Unemployment was as low as 3 1/2% for several years despite a large increase in labour force participation. Furthermore, the gender wage gap in New Zealand fell rapidly to now be the smallest in any industrialised country.

As the Facebook photos show, there has been strong income and wage growth despite the grizzling of the left. The return of income growth and wages growth after 20 years of real wage stagnation followed the economic reforms of the 1980s and the passage of the Employment Contracts Act in 1991.

As the CTU shows below, the economic reforms in the 1980s put an end to a sharp decline in the relative economic performance of the New Zealand economy.

 

% of New Zealand mortgages that were fixed and floating since 2004

Despite the best efforts of the libertarian paternalists to sell the other people are stupid fallacy, ordinary New Zealanders are quite nimble at moving between fixed and floating rates depending upon their forecasts of the future of interest rates. Price controls on floating rate mortgages, as suggested by the New Zealand Labour Party, would make this more difficult, not easier.

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Source: S8 Banks: Mortgage lending ($m) – Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Percentage of fixed and floating mortgages in New Zealand

I did not know so many people were on a fixed rate mortgage.  Labour is risking its economic credibility on regulating the rates for a minority of mortgages.

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Source: S8 Banks: Mortgage lending ($m) – Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Capped mortgages cannot be linked to the current official cash rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand because they are based on expected future interest rates over an up to 5 year span, not current interest rates.

An important motivation for going onto a floating rate is you can repay faster. Fixed rate mortgages have penalties for early repayment.

Source: Price Controls: Price Floors and Ceilings, Illustrated.

In consequence, price controls linking floating rate mortgages to the official cash rate of the Reserve Bank would benefit better off mortgagees expecting to repay quickly. A typical policy of the modern Labour Party.

New Zealand Post (incl. Kiwibank) dividends

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Source: New Zealand Treasury – data released under the Official Information Act.

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