Loury and McWhorter tackle the racial mismatch hypothesis and Affirmative Action

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/679091518267879425

Do they have academic tenure anymore?

https://twitter.com/mileskimball/status/541219532032212993/photo/1

Education and the risk of criminality

@TransportBlog @JulieAnneGenter community outrage at new bike lane death trap in Island Bay

Source: Wellington’s Island Bay cycleway has left residents confused and angry | Stuff.co.nz.

We drove past this bicycle death trap in island Bay in Wellington the other weekend. The first thing I noticed is a lot of bicycle will be sideswiped as passengers in cars open their left door not expecting anybody to be there. The bike lane also narrows the road from buses. Residents now have a lot of trouble safely getting out of their houses without both are running over bicyclists and seeing oncoming cars. Further proof that bikes are a killer green technology.

Source: Wellington’s Island Bay cycleway has left residents confused and angry | Stuff.co.nz.

Part of the nonsense behind this death trap is that more people ride their bike if they can do so safely such as on this death trap according to the local mayor:

Wellington Mayor Celia Wade-Brown acknowledged the recent social media backlash – which she dubbed “bike-lash” – but was confident it would simmer down once the cycleway was complete.

She pointed to the council’s research, which showed 76 per cent of Wellingtonians would cycle more if cycling was safer.

“And I think a scientific survey is a clearer indication [of Wellingtonians’ views on the cycleway] than the number of social media likes or dislikes.”

Obviously our local mayor has not heard of the social acceptability bias that arises when answering questions about whether or whether not they are use fashionable forms of transport.

The number of people in Wellington taking a bicycle to work in Wellington is trivial. Three times as many walk to work as take a bike to work in Wellington.

Source: New Zealand Transport Agency.

The Twitter Left mantra as championed by the Greens and Transport Blog is that it would all be so much different we invested a little bit more in public transport is a myth.

The experience in Europe and North America is that if you make buses free, the cheapies that currently bike take the bus or train. In addition, the street people find it comfortable warm place to hang out when during the day which drives the regular customers away.

A 2002 report released by the National Center for Transportation Research indicated that the lack of fares attracted hordes of young people, who brought with them a culture of vandalism, graffiti, and bad behavior—which all necessitated costly maintenance. The lure of “free,” the report implied, attracted the “wrong” crowd—the “right” crowd, of course, being wealthier people with cars, who aren’t very sensitive to price changes.

@geoffsimmonz The family wage gap or why are the Swiss implicitly biased in favour of single women but heavily against married women?

The gender wage gap from married women is 3 to 30 times that of single women. This was actually have a positive gender wage gap.

image

Source: IZA World of Labor – Equal pay legislation and the gender wage gap.

The smallest of the gender wage gap for single women, which has been well known for a long time, does not bode well for those such as Geoff Simmons who argue that implicit bias is an important driver of the gender pay gap.

Why are there vast differences in this implicit bias against women between countries. Why is this implicit bias so much stronger against married women? Having an implicit bias against married women but not single women is a very odd implicit bias.

These puzzles are before considering the information extraction problem facing employers who are implicitly bias against married women. Employers do not know whether an applicant is married or single and pay less accordingly. As Polachek observed:

Corporate discrimination cannot explain these wage patterns. Were corporate discrimination the reason, one would need an explanation why corporations hardly discriminate against single women, but discriminate enormously against married women, especially married women with children spaced widely apart, given that they often cannot legally ask questions about marital status in employment applications.

Even if they could get this marital status information, they wouldn’t have information on the number and spacing of one’s children. But even if supervisors knew number of children, they are far less knowledgeable about children’s ages, and hence less likely to know much about child spacing.

Employers who are slightly less implicitly biased against married women would have a far higher quality recruitment pool which gives them a competitive advantage. Employers who are implicitly biased against women and married women are less likely to survive in competition.

Earning power by personality type

https://twitter.com/LindaRegber/status/678854482092908545

Poverty, plenty and the old age pension

https://twitter.com/paul1kirby/status/673472886020120576

The middle class is starting to wither away

Which occupations are up and which are down

@GarethMorgannz the universal basic income is inferior to the minimum family tax credit

Gareth Morgan’s universal basic income appears to make everybody better off except those for whom the modern welfare state was established to protect. Examples of these from his online calculator are single mothers and retirees.

image

Source: The Big Kahuna – Tax and Welfare.

To stay even just with single mothers blows a good $10 billion hole in the budget deficit according to the online calculator provided by Gareth Morgan. Retirees are still worse off.

image

Source: The Big Kahuna – Tax and Welfare.

Central to the package is a comprehensive capital gains tax despite evidence growing with each day that the optimal tax rates on income from capital and on capital gains are zero.

A universal basic income for New Zealand is a long  trip to where we are now. There is already a guaranteed minimum family income in New Zealand.

The minimum family tax credit makes sure that a family’s annual income (net income after tax has been deducted) doesn’t fall below $23,036 a year ($443 per week). To qualify, you must  work for a salary or wage for at least 30 hours each week as a couple, or 20 hours each week as a single parent, and receive a family tax credit.

The Treasury modelled a Guaranteed Minimum income at the request of the Welfare Working Group in 2010. A  guaranteed minimum income  of $300 per week – the mean benefit income among those on benefits – would cost $44.5 billion or $52.6 billion if we extended it to super annuitants as a replacement for NZ Superannuation or old age pension. The former could be covered by a flat personal income tax rate of 45.4%; the latter, 48.6%. Full fiscal neutrality would require tax rates of 50.6% and 54.4%.

The universal basic income seems to be a big day out for Director’s Law of Public Expenditure. Director’s Law is public expenditure is used primary for the benefit of the middle class, and is financed with taxes which are borne in considerable part by the poor and the rich.

The universal basic income and a comprehensive capital gains tax seems to cause a lot of economic upheaval but still struggles to make the worse off groups in society even break-even on this throwing of all the cards in the air. Brian Easton put it well the other day when he said:

Many advocates put the UMI forward without doing the sums. Those who do, find that the required tax rates are horrendous or the minimum income is so low that it is not a viable means of eliminating poverty. Among the latter are New Zealanders Douglas, Gareth Morgan and Keith Rankin.

Roland Fryer on Education, Inequality, & Incentives

@CHSommers More reasons for women to avoid STEM careers @stevenljoyce @GreenCatherine

Many young women choose to not pursue science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) careers because there are other career options that allow them to better use their superior verbal and reading abilities.

Further reasons for women to hesitate entering STEM occupations is their faster rate of human capital depreciation. It has been well known for a long time that human capital atrophy rates differ greatly by occupation and are much higher in professional, managerial and craft occupations.

Source: Polachek (1981).

Even a year out of the workforce can greatly reduce earning power because of a rapid depreciation of the human capital accumulated from certain occupations. Women make education and career choices that minimise these losses in light of periods away from work because of motherhood.

Women self-selecting to those occupations with low rates of human capital depreciation. As De Grip explains using German data:

…women who anticipate career interruptions for family reasons take account of the wage penalties related to such a break when they choose their occupational field, i.e. women select occupations where human capital deprecation during a career interruption is the lowest…

Our estimation results have important implications for public policies which attempt to encourage the interest of female students in technical studies and occupations. Obviously, the higher human-capital depreciation rates for workers with family-related career breaks in these male occupations can be a serious threshold for women to choose these occupations

Women choose the occupations that maximise the returns from their skills. Occupations that neither well-reward superior verbal and reading skills and have rapid rates of depreciation on occupational human capital are not a good investment for many of the women anticipating spells out of the workforce because of motherhood.

Rendall and Rendall (2015) recently investigated differential depreciation rates on verbal and maths skills in competing occupational choices for college educated women. Not surprisingly, they found that in the USA verbal skills suffered only minor depreciation during career interruptions but maths skills experience costly depreciation. They found that:

…college educated women avoid occupations requiring significant math skills due to the costly skill atrophy experienced during a career break. In contrast, verbal skills are very robust to career interruptions. The results support the broadly observed female preference for occupations primarily requiring verbal skills – even though these occupations exhibit lower average wages.

Thus, skill-specific atrophy during employment leave and the speed of skill repair upon returning to the labour market are shown to be important factors underpinning women’s occupational outcomes. This research suggests that a substantial portion of female occupational sorting could be determined by skill-specific atrophy-repair characteristics.

This is no surprise as verbal skills improve with age because of expanding vocabularies and better judgement based on accumulated experience. Maths skills tend to be the type of skills where your best years in your 20s and after that things fall away.

These findings by Rendall and Rendall reinforce the initial bias women have against STEM occupations because of their superior reading and verbal skills. STEM occupations are a poor career choice for women because they undervalue their innate skills and heavily penalise career interruptions.

Such is the fatal conceit of politicians is they want to encourage women to make poor education and occupational investments. Women self-selecting into vastly different occupations to men because they are smarter than the average politician about what is the best of them.

Differential atrophy rates on human capital as drivers of the gender wage gap and occupational segregation have nothing to do with the choices of employers – nothing to do with blameworthy behaviour on their part. The blameworthy behaviour can be explicit prejudice, implicit bias or statistical discrimination.

Much of occupational segregation is the result from self-selection by women into occupations on the basis of superior innate skills and the slow rates at which these verbal and reading skills depreciate with time both in general and with time away from the workforce.

The gender gap among the top 1%

US maternal employment rates by number and age of children

image

Source: Pensions at a Glance 2015 – Statistics – OECD iLibrary.

Income sources of older people in USA, Canada, France, Germany, Australia and New Zealand

image

Source: Pensions at a glance 2015 – © OECD 2015

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