Scientific Misbehavior in Economics and Publish or Perish

via Impact of Social Sciences – Scientific Misbehavior in Economics: Unacceptable research practice linked to perceived pressure to publish.

Employment patterns of couples differential with families differ greatly across the OECD

It usually begins with the RMA – fewer warm, dry homes as an unintended consequence of regulatory restrictions on land supply

The Government admits that its proposed insulation and smoke alarm standards for rental properties could push up rents by more than $3 a week. Under legislation to be introduced in October, social housing would have to be retrofitted with ceiling and underfloor insulation by next July, and all other rental homes by July 2019.

An important driver of lower quality housing in New Zealand is the restrictions on land supply. The costs of those restrictions, land makes up 60% of the cost of new houses rather than 40%. Land prices have doubled and tripled in a number of cities. As the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has said:

The median price of sections has increased from $94,000 in 2003 to over $190,000 today (compared with $NZ 100,000 per section in the US), ranging from Southland ($82,000) to Auckland ($308,000)…

Section costs in Auckland account for around 60% of the cost of a new dwelling, compared with 40% in the rest of New Zealand.

The RMA is the Resource Management Act and was passed just before New Zealand housing prices started to rise rapidly.

housing prices and RMA

Source: Dallas Fed; Housing prices deflated by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator.

Higher land prices for new houses spill into the prices of existing houses, which are now much more expensive than they need to be but for the RMA inspired land supply restrictions in Auckland and elsewhere in New Zealand.

One way in which homeowners and landlords can keep costs down when buying a house either for their own use or as an investment property is not to invest in insulation and smoke alarms. Deposits are less, mortgages are less and rents are less. It all adds up.

$3 is not much for some but it is enough that some parents cannot find $3 or so per week to feed their children breakfast. Joe Trinder, the Mana News editor blogged about the great expense of feeding the kids for ordinary families.

image

Put simply, you cannot argue that a few dollars is a lot of money to people on low incomes but ignore the consequences for their welfare of a $3 per week increase in their rents.

If tenants were willing to pay for insulation, landlords would provide well-insulated rental properties to service that demand. Walter Block wrote an excellent defence of slumlords in his 1971 book Defending the Undefendable:

The owner of ghetto housing differs little from any other purveyor of low-cost merchandise. In fact, he is no different from any purveyor of any kind of merchandise. They all charge as much as they can.

First consider the purveyors of cheap, inferior, and second-hand merchandise as a class. One thing above all else stands out about merchandise they buy and sell: it is cheaply built, inferior in quality, or second-hand.

A rational person would not expect high quality, exquisite workmanship, or superior new merchandise at bargain rate prices; he would not feel outraged and cheated if bargain rate merchandise proved to have only bargain rate qualities.

Our expectations from margarine are not those of butter. We are satisfied with lesser qualities from a used car than from a new car.

However, when it comes to housing, especially in the urban setting, people expect, even insist upon, quality housing at bargain prices.

Richard Posner discussed housing habitability laws in his Economic Analysis of the Law. The subsection was titled wealth distribution through liability rules. Posner concluded that habitability laws will lead to abandonment of rental property by landlords and increased rents for poor tenants.

https://twitter.com/childpovertynz/status/618985237628858368

What do-gooder would want to know that a warranty of habitability for rental housing will lead to scarcer, more expensive housing for the poor! Surprisingly few interventions in the housing market work to the advantage of the poor.

Certainly, there will be less rental housing of a habitability standard below that demanded by do-gooders in the new New Zealand legislation. In the Encyclopaedia of Law and Economics entry on renting, Werner Hirsch said:

It would be a mistake, however, to look upon a decline in substandard rental housing as an unmitigated gain.

In fact, in the absence of substandard housing, options for indigent tenants are reduced. Some tenants are likely to end up in over-crowded standard units, or even homeless.

The straightforward way to increase the quality of housing in New Zealand without increasing poverty is to increase the supply of land.

As land prices fall, both homebuyers and tenants will be able to pay for better quality fixtures and fittings because less of their limited income is paying for buying or renting the land.

Has NZ child poverty doubled as @MaxRashbrooke said?

Lindsay Mitchell put me onto a quote by veteran grumbler Max Rashbrooke that the child poverty rate doubled in New Zealand:

In a system where income goes disproportionately to the already well-off, ordinary workers are missing out on the rewards of their efforts, to the tune of billions of dollars a year. Welfare benefits, cut by a quarter in 1991 and increased just 8 per cent in the last budget, are far too low to meet people’s basic needs.

The result is a doubling of child poverty and the return of childhood diseases unknown in most developed countries – a national embarrassment, as one researcher described it.

Poverty, income and inequality data is collected in loving detail by Brian Perry every year for the Ministry of Social Development.

Figure 1: % child poverty in New Zealand (before and after housing costs), 60% 1998 median constant value, 1982 – 2013

image

Source: Bryan Perry, Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014), Tables F.6 and F.7.

The only thing noticeable in the downward trend in child poverty in New Zealand since its doubling with the sharp recession in 1990 with double-digit unemployment rates is child poverty stop falling shortly after in-work family tax credits were introduced in the form of Working for Families in 2005.

There was a break in trend in the long decline in child poverty as soon as in-work family tax credits were introduced in New Zealand. I’m sure this is a coincidence because, as Brian Perry said when discussing the introduction of Working for Families in 2005:

The 2004 to 2007 period was the only one in the 25 years to 2007 in which the incomes of low- to middle-income households grew more quickly than those of households above the median.

The real killer in New Zealand in terms of poverty and inequality are housing costs. Housing costs are wholly under the control of government through its control of the supply of land, which is restricted at the behest of the parties of the left.

Figure 2: real equivalised household incomes (before and after housing costs): changes at the top of lowest income decile, New Zealand, 1982 to 2013

image

Source: Bryan Perry, Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014), tables D.2 and D.4.

Figure 2 shows that real equivalised household income after housing costs has not grown and in fact has fallen for the bottom 10% of the income distribution in New Zealand.

It is the left-wing parties who oppose measures to reduce housing costs and and increase the supply of land through reforms to the Resource Management Act and the relaxation of the Auckland metropolitan urban limit.

Labour and the Greens are in effect keeping the poor poor to win middle-class votes.

Figure 3: real equivalised household incomes (before and after housing costs): changes at the top of the top, middle and lowest lowest income deciles, New Zealand, 1982 to 2013

image

Source: Bryan Perry, Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014), tables D.2 in D.4.

Figure 3 shows that those in the middle and higher deciles, a political territory rich in swinging voters, are still doing well after housing costs. The parties of the left are collaborating with a middle-class home owning voter while betraying the working class and its aspirations from home ownership and quite simply affordable housing costs when they rent.

The increases for all groups may be understated by the inability of living standards measures to adequately account for new goods, product upgrades and rising life expectancies.

Income inequality before and after taxes and transfers

Poverty traps in America

This chart shows how Americans spend every single minute in the average day

via via This chart shows how Americans spend every single minute in the average day – The Washington Post.

Poverty rates by number of children – USA, UK, Canada and Australia

Figure 1: poverty rates of adults aged 20 to 54 by presence of children, 2004

image

Source: LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.

Are the rich getting richer, poor getting poorer as @MaxRashbrooke once again suggests?

image

Max Rashbrooke has been at it again in the paper today.

Don’t these graphs show that everyone is richer in New Zealand than 30 years ago and there has been not much change in either child poverty or inequality for coming on for 20 years? The fall in child poverty started before the introduction of Working for Families.

Technological progress in the form of new goods and product upgrades are poorly captured in measures of living standards over time as is increases in life expectancies.

HT: Suffer the little children – Inequality and child poverty – Closer TogetherCloser Together.

Why are fast food workers spared the ravages of the inherent inequality of bargaining power between workers and employers and the top 1%’s greediness too?

Richer is greener: environmentalists are Environmental Kuznets Curve deniers

The Kuznets environmental curve describes an empirical regularity between environmental quality and economic growth. Outdoor water, air and other pollution first worse and then improves as a country first experiences economic growth and development.

While many pollutants exhibit this pattern in the Kuznets environmental curve, peak pollution levels occur at different income levels for different pollutants, countries and time periods. John Tierney explains:

In dozens of studies, researchers identified Kuznets curves for a variety of environmental problems.

There are exceptions to the trend, especially in countries with inept governments and poor systems of property rights, but in general, richer is eventually greener.

As incomes go up, people often focus first on cleaning up their drinking water, and then later on air pollutants like sulphur dioxide.

As their wealth grows, people consume more energy, but they move to more efficient and cleaner sources — from wood to coal and oil, and then to natural gas and nuclear power, progressively emitting less carbon per unit of energy.

When I was living in Japan in the mid 1990s, they just completed a period of rapid operation of the Kuznets environmental curve. I was told by my professors at Graduate School that in the 1960s, cities and prefectures welcomed polluting industries because of the better paid jobs they offered. At that time, shipping companies used like to go to Tokyo because the pollution in Tokyo Bay was so bad that it would clean all the barnacles off their ships. That made them sail faster.

image

Japanese incomes and wages doubled over the course of the 1960s. The Japanese voter was now prepared to support stricter pollution standards and environmental controls.

In the early 1970s, the ruling LDP stole the long-standing environmental policies of their opponents in a big crack down on pollution because the country could now afforded them.

Plenty of developing countries are democracies now. Their people could demand through the ballot box higher environmental standards and clean tap water but they don’t because of its cost to economic development.

The environmental movement lives in a state of denial regarding the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality.

Factors that affect job automation

Why gender analysis is essential to empirical labour economics

Image

Average weekly working hours by gender and presence of children, Canada, UK and USA

Figure 1: average weekly working hours for Current or Last Job(s) Held aged 20-54 by gender, 2004

image

Source: LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.

Poverty in the UK

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