Back in January, I posted about an article that was getting some attention in my world. Megan T. Stevenson is an active researcher in the criminal-justice-and-economics literature. She argues that when you look at the published studies that use randomized control trial methods to evaluate ways of reducing crime, most of the studies don’t show a…
Pushback on Pessimism About Randomized Controlled Trials
Pushback on Pessimism About Randomized Controlled Trials
03 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of crime, law and economics Tags: crime and punishment, criminal deterrence, law and order
Has Worker Pay Kept Up with Productivity Growth?
02 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, poverty and inequality
You will be astonished, gentle reader, to learn that the question of whether worker pay has kept up with productivity growth turns out to depend on 1) how you measure worker pay; and 2) how you measure productivity growth. Scott Winship considers the alternatives and issues in “Understanding Trends in Worker Pay over the Past…
Has Worker Pay Kept Up with Productivity Growth?
Updated estimates on immigration and wages
30 May 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, econometerics, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA Tags: economics of immigration
In this article we revive, extend and improve the approach used in a series of influential papers written in the 2000s to estimate how changes in the supply of immigrant workers affected natives’ wages in the US. We begin by extending the analysis to include the more recent years 2000-2022. Additionally, we introduce three important […]
Updated estimates on immigration and wages
Development Policies with the Best Benefit-Cost Ratios
29 May 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, growth disasters, growth miracles, public economics
In a world with lots of problems and even more proposed policies to address each of these problems, it makes sense to study the possibilities–and then to prioritize policies with highest estimated ratio of benefits to costs. The Copenhagen Consensus think tank carried out this exercise and came up with 12 policies. A special issue…
Development Policies with the Best Benefit-Cost Ratios
New article by some middling economists about Biden Admin. merger policy
24 May 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, law and economics Tags: competition law, merger law enforcement
DETERRENCE IN MERGER REVIEW: LIKELY EFFECTS OF RECENT U.S. POLICY CHANGESBy Luke M. Froeb, Steven T. Tschantz & Gregory J. WerdenWe model likely effects of Biden Administration changes in merger enforcement on five discrete decisions in the review process. We find that the policy changes can be expected to stop many bad mergers but only at the cost…
New article by some middling economists about Biden Admin. merger policy
Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought–Guardian
18 May 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economics of natural disasters, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
By Paul Homewood Today’s bilge from the Guardian: The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found. A 1C increase in […]
Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought–Guardian
Climate Models Not Scientific
25 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming
Paul Sutton explains in his Daily Sceptic article There’s Nothing “Scientific” About Climate Models. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images. On Sunday’s BBC Politics, Luke Johnson asked for evidence that the recent Dubai flooding was due to climate change. Chris Packham glibly responded: “It comes from something called science.” This simply highlighted […]
Climate Models Not Scientific
Bjorge brings calm to climate conversation
24 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, economic history, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming
Hiring discrimination sentences to ponder
23 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economics of education, economics of information, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, managerial economics, organisational economics, personnel economics, politics - USA, poverty and inequality Tags: gender wage gap, implicit bias, racial discrimination, sex discrimination
Several common measures — like employing a chief diversity officer, offering diversity training or having a diverse board — were not correlated with decreased discrimination in entry-level hiring, the researchers found. But one thing strongly predicted less discrimination: a centralized H.R. operation. The researchers recorded the voice mail messages that the fake applicants received. When a company’s […]
Hiring discrimination sentences to ponder
350+ coauthors study reproducibility in economics
08 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics Tags: academic fraud, publication bias
Jon Hartley is one I know, here is the abstract: This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally […]
350+ coauthors study reproducibility in economics
Labour’s net zero target faces £116bn ‘investment challenge’
28 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: British politics
Challenge is putting it mildly. Cloud cuckoo land beckons once again in the form of impossible but supposedly climate-related targets. Some timescales are hard to shorten just by uttering demands. – – – A report by Policy Exchange, supported by analysis from Aurora Energy Research, outlines challenges facing Labour’s aim to achieve a decarbonised power […]
Labour’s net zero target faces £116bn ‘investment challenge’
The RCT Agenda
12 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of education, economics of information, economics of regulation, experimental economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, history of economic thought, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, managerial economics, market efficiency, Marxist economics, occupational choice, organisational economics, property rights, Public Choice, public economics Tags: The fatal conceit
Randomized Controlled Trials: Could you be any more scientific? The book I’m now writing, Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets, insists that the randomistas of the economics profession actually have a thinly-veiled political agenda. Namely: To get economists to humbly serve the demagogues that rule the world instead of bluntly challenging their unabated…
The RCT Agenda
Former World Bank economist warns of energy transition’s fiscal risks
08 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
By Paul Homewood London, 5 March – In the run-up to Budget Day (6 March), a new paper by a former World Bank economist and published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation warns that the UK’s current decarbonisation timeframe is unrealistic and threatens to be economically and socially unsustainable.
Former World Bank economist warns of energy transition’s fiscal risks
Population is Not Being Told the True Cost of Net Zero, Warns Former World Bank Economist
07 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
The insanity of Net Zero becomes clearer by the day.
Population is Not Being Told the True Cost of Net Zero, Warns Former World Bank Economist
‘Very Bizarre’: Scientists Expose Major Problems With Climate Change Data
06 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
“Climate activism has become the new religion of the 21st century – heretics are not welcome and not allowed to ask questions,” says astrophysicist Willie Soon. But data manipulation, or tampering, is rife. Most climate models over-predict warming, while natural variations continue. – – – Temperature records used by climate scientists and governments to build […]
‘Very Bizarre’: Scientists Expose Major Problems With Climate Change Data
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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