That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column. Here is one summary excerpt: One result: Total tangible corporate investment went up by about 11%. That has been a welcome shot in the arm for an economy that was by some measures suffering from an investment drought. The strong state of the Biden economy may, in…
Current state of knowledge on the Trump tax cuts
Current state of knowledge on the Trump tax cuts
25 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - USA, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
The employment effects of a guaranteed income
23 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, poverty and inequality Tags: basic income
By Eva Vivalt, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander W. Bartik, David E. Broockman, Sarah Miller, Here is the link, but I am still sleeping. Here is the abstract: We study the causal impacts of income on a rich array of employment outcomes, leveraging an experiment in which 1,000 low-income individuals were randomized into receiving $1,000 per month […]
The employment effects of a guaranteed income
Ignore the polls, prediction markets have Trump at 66% chance of winning the election
16 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, politics - USA Tags: 2024 presidential election
CNN Interview of Rutgers Statistics professor, Harry Crane. Below are graphs of the prices of a Trump, Biden, and Harris futures contracts that pays out $1 if they become President. In the last day, the Trump contract has increased by 6¢, indicating a 6% increase in President Trump’s election chances. The blue bars indicate the…
Ignore the polls, prediction markets have Trump at 66% chance of winning the election
Zoning Matters for Rising Housing Costs, Especially After 1980
11 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, economics of regulation, environmental economics, income redistribution, Public Choice, rentseeking, urban economics Tags: housing affordability, land supply, zoning
From a new working paper “The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890-2006” by Ronan C. Lyons, Allison Shertzer, Rowena Gray & David N. Agorastos (emphasis added): “Zoning was adopted by almost every city in our sample during the 1920s. We see a slightly steeper gradient over the next two periods (coefficients of .48 […]
Zoning Matters for Rising Housing Costs, Especially After 1980
Needed in Empirical Social Science: Numbers
29 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, history of economic thought
By Aaron S. Edlin and Michael Love: Knowing the magnitude and standard error of an empirical estimate is much more important than simply knowing the estimate’s sign and whether it is statistically significant. Yet, we find that even in top journals, when empirical social scientists choose their headline results – the results they put in […]
Needed in Empirical Social Science: Numbers
More impatient people are more likely to commit crime
09 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of crime, economics of education, labour economics, law and economics, occupational choice Tags: cognitive psychology, crime and punishment, criminal deterrence, law and order
Gary Becker’s famous model of rational crime suggests that criminals weigh up the costs and benefits of crime (and engage in a criminal act if the benefits outweigh the costs). Time preferences matter in this model, because the benefits of a criminal act are usually realised immediately, whereas the greatest costs (including the penalties of…
More impatient people are more likely to commit crime
How we know that the sun changes climate (II). The present
06 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economics of natural disasters, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
by Javier Vinós Part 2 of a 3-part series. Part I is here. The effect of the Sun on climate has been debated for 200 years. The basic problem is that when we study the past, we observe strong climatic changes associated with prolonged periods of low solar activity, but when we observe the present, […]
How we know that the sun changes climate (II). The present
Pushback on Pessimism About Randomized Controlled Trials
03 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of crime, law and economics Tags: crime and punishment, criminal deterrence, law and order
Back in January, I posted about an article that was getting some attention in my world. Megan T. Stevenson is an active researcher in the criminal-justice-and-economics literature. She argues that when you look at the published studies that use randomized control trial methods to evaluate ways of reducing crime, most of the studies don’t show a…
Pushback on Pessimism About Randomized Controlled Trials
Has Worker Pay Kept Up with Productivity Growth?
02 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, poverty and inequality
You will be astonished, gentle reader, to learn that the question of whether worker pay has kept up with productivity growth turns out to depend on 1) how you measure worker pay; and 2) how you measure productivity growth. Scott Winship considers the alternatives and issues in “Understanding Trends in Worker Pay over the Past…
Has Worker Pay Kept Up with Productivity Growth?
Updated estimates on immigration and wages
30 May 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, econometerics, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA Tags: economics of immigration
In this article we revive, extend and improve the approach used in a series of influential papers written in the 2000s to estimate how changes in the supply of immigrant workers affected natives’ wages in the US. We begin by extending the analysis to include the more recent years 2000-2022. Additionally, we introduce three important […]
Updated estimates on immigration and wages
Development Policies with the Best Benefit-Cost Ratios
29 May 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, growth disasters, growth miracles, public economics
In a world with lots of problems and even more proposed policies to address each of these problems, it makes sense to study the possibilities–and then to prioritize policies with highest estimated ratio of benefits to costs. The Copenhagen Consensus think tank carried out this exercise and came up with 12 policies. A special issue…
Development Policies with the Best Benefit-Cost Ratios
New article by some middling economists about Biden Admin. merger policy
24 May 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, law and economics Tags: competition law, merger law enforcement
DETERRENCE IN MERGER REVIEW: LIKELY EFFECTS OF RECENT U.S. POLICY CHANGESBy Luke M. Froeb, Steven T. Tschantz & Gregory J. WerdenWe model likely effects of Biden Administration changes in merger enforcement on five discrete decisions in the review process. We find that the policy changes can be expected to stop many bad mergers but only at the cost…
New article by some middling economists about Biden Admin. merger policy
Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought–Guardian
18 May 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economics of natural disasters, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
By Paul Homewood Today’s bilge from the Guardian: The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found. A 1C increase in […]
Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought–Guardian
Climate Models Not Scientific
25 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming
Paul Sutton explains in his Daily Sceptic article There’s Nothing “Scientific” About Climate Models. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images. On Sunday’s BBC Politics, Luke Johnson asked for evidence that the recent Dubai flooding was due to climate change. Chris Packham glibly responded: “It comes from something called science.” This simply highlighted […]
Climate Models Not Scientific
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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