Has ethical investing ever beaten the market? @GreenpeaceNZ

VFTSX is the Vanguard social investing index fund – a fund that invests in an index made up of ethical investing funds.image

Source: VFTSX Vanguard FTSE Social Index Inv Fund VFTSX Quote Price News.

Are tobacco shares a good investment?

There was a bit of a hiatus in the mid-20th century but since then, Ben Bernanke’s decision to invest only in tobacco shares was a wise choice.

During the transition period, 1947-1965, shares in the tobacco industry underperformed by 3 percent per year in the USA.

Still, it was a temporary trend and the decades from the 1960s to the 2000s, when the health impact of tobacco was well known, saw tobacco companies outperforming comparable firms by over +3 percent per year. 

Source: Responsible Investing: Does It Pay to Be “Bad”?  – Credit Suisse.

The Economist Crony Capitalism Index

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…

The share market speaks on competition and the Sky TV Vodafone merger

An anti-competitive merger should boost the share prices of the remaining rivals. If there is less competition and higher prices after the merger, the remaining rival firms in the market can follow those price rises up without fear of being undercut.

The Sky TV merger with Vodafone announced today is an example of that. Its competition in broadband, which is Spark, experienced a small fall in its share price. Investors in that company do not anticipate higher prices in the future as a result of the merger announced today.

Source: Sky TV shares surge, Spark falls on Vodafone merger | The National Business Review.

There is a long history of studying share market reactions to mergers first by Eckbo (1983) and Stillman (1983). The change in the value of competitors’ equity can measure the (discounted) additional profits that is expected to accrue to them as a consequence of the merger.

Source: The Competitive Effects of Mergers: Stock Market Evidence from the U.S. Steel Dissolution Suit George L. Mullin, Joseph C. Mullin and Wallace P. Mullin, The RAND Journal of Economics Vol. 26, No. 2 (Summer, 1995), pp. 314-330.

A positive reaction of remaining rivals to a merger indicates that the merger enhances competitors’ profits. This effect has been called the collusion hypothesis. Collusion is easier after the merger so share prices go up. If share prices fall, more effective collusion is not on the horizon. The adjacent snapshot of a table shows what happens to share prices when a competition agency opposes a merger.

Another way to study the competitive effects of mergers is the share market reaction in downstream markets. Do buyers anticipate lower prices from the merged supplier and its rivals?

Another test of the anti-competitive effects of the merger is whether the remaining rival firms oppose it. Was it Frank Easterbrook in the 1980s or Aaron Director in the 1950s who said that the clearest evidence of a pro-competitive merger was if rival firms ask the competition law enforcement agency to take action against it? Do the competitors oppose the merger? If they do, the merger must lower prices and put their profits under more pressure.

General government net financial liabilities as % Portuguese, Italian, Greek, Spanish and Irish GDPs

I had borrowed a lot of money from scratch after 2007. Greece borrowed a lot of money of its own accord from 2010. Italy always owed a lot of money. Spanish do not know all that much money considering their dire financial circumstances.

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Source: OECD Economic Outlook June 2016 Data extracted on 01 Jun 2016 12:57 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

How big are the vice industries?

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Source: Big Tobacco’s Pot of Gold – Bloomberg Gadfly

Few of the top 50 billionaires inherited their wealth

Of the 15 inheritance based billionaires, three are from the Walton family, two are the Koch brothers and another three are from the Mars family.

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Source: The world’s top 50 billionaires: A demographic breakdown.

@PikettyLeMonde pension fund socialism has finished taking over #capitalism #Piketty

Peter Drucker first pointed out in the 70s that the retirement savings of ordinary workers will end up opening the majority of public listed companies. That day has come much to the disappointment of the Leftover Left ranging from Thomas Piketty to Max Rashbrooke.image 

Source: CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: US Corporate Stock: The Transition in Who Owns It.

Any call for higher taxes on investment incomes and capital and even tax havens is an attack on the retirement savings of ordinary workers.

Share market capitalisation by marijuana industry sector

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Source: For These 55 Marijuana Companies, Every Day is 4/20.

The sharemarket speaks: The Value of Offshore Secrets – Evidence from the #PanamaPapers

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Rothbard on Insider Trading

Psychological Bias as a Driver of Financial Regulation

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“Psychological Bias as a Driver of Financial Regulation,” David Hirshleifer, European Financial Management, 14(5), November, (2008):856-874.

Does ethical investment pay? @JulieAnneGenter @jamespeshaw @RusselNorman

The Vanguard Investment Fund has set up an passive investment index to invest in ethical investments. No flies on them regarding entrepreneurial alertness.

The drawback of ethical investing is the higher management expenses to administer negative screens (to eliminate arms manufacturers and other frowned upon activities) and positive screens (to favour businesses with a good record on corporate social responsibility or that are involved in low-carbon industries etc.)

An index-linked passive fund allows socially conscious investor to have a diversified ethical portfolio at least cost. Vanguard pitches its ethical investing passive fund thus

Some individuals choose investments based on social and personal beliefs. For this type of investor, we have offered Vanguard FTSE Social Index Fund since 2000.

This low-cost fund seeks to track a benchmark of large- and mid-capitalization stocks that have been screened for certain social, human rights, and environmental criteria.

In addition to stock market volatility, one of the fund’s other key risks is that this socially conscious approach may produce returns that diverge from those of the broad market.

The expenses ratio of this index linked passive fund for socially conscious investors is 0.25%. The usual investment expenses ratio of a Vanguard Fund is 0.1% which is much less than that of active funds.

As is well known, ethical investing offers a poorer return on standard diversification strategies as the chart below show.

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Source: The case against socially responsible investing (SRI) – Flannel Guy ROI.

Virtue must be its own reward because it does not pay off in the share market

As you can see value of $10,000 at the end of 10 years would be worth almost $24,000 with the total stock market ETF but only about $20,000 with the FTSE social index.

The initial reaction is that $4,000 over 10 years isn’t that big of a deal, but there are two things to point out.  First, that $4,000 difference is worth almost half the initial investment!  Secondly, on a compound annual basis, the SRI fund returns about 2% less than the total stock market fund.

Does ethical investing pay? Barrier Fund and Ave Maria Catholic Values Fund head to head

Virtue is not its own reward if you invest in the Ave Maria Catholic Values Fund which is AVEMX in the head-to-head comparison with the Barriers Fund, formerly the Vice Fund. The Ave Maria Catholic Values Fund return since inception was 5.63% as compared to the 9.95% return of the Barrier Fund.

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Source: VICEX – USA Mutuals Barrier Fund Investor Class Shares Mutual Fund Quote – CNNMoney.com

The S&P index grew by 8 .34% since the inception of the then Vice Fund, now the Barrier Fund. Such is the price of risking of going to hell if you lose Pascal’s wager by investing in tobacco, alcoholic beverage, gaming and defence/aerospace industries.

All of the equity investments (which include common stocks, preferred stocks and securities convertible into common stock) and at least 80% of the net assets  of the Ave Maria Catholic Values Fund is invested in companies meeting its religious criteria as  the fund manager explains

Morally Responsible Investing (MRI) is a subset of socially responsible investing, which often screens out companies engaged in environmental issues, tobacco products, alcohol, nuclear power, defense, oil and “unfair” labor practices. MRI is different in that it screens out companies engaged in activities that are not pro-life or pro-family… 

All investments are screened to eliminate any company engaged in abortion, pornography, embryonic stem cell research, or those that make corporate contributions to Planned Parenthood

Traditional ethical funds use negative screens (to eliminate arms manufacturers and other frowned upon activities) and positive screens (to favour businesses with a good record on corporate social responsibility or that are involved in low-carbon industries etc).

The Vice Fund (now the Barriers Fund) continues to outperform S&P 500

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Source: VICEX – USA Mutuals Barrier Fund Investor Class Shares Mutual Fund Quote – CNNMoney.com

The Vice Fund has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2004 as shown by the green line. This mutual fund invests invest in sinful stocks as its managers describe it:

Designed with the goal of delivering better ​risk-adjusted returns than the S&P 500 Index. It invests primarily in stocks in the tobacco, alcohol, gaming and defence industries. Vice Funds believes these industries tend to thrive ​regardless of the economy as a whole.

The Vice Fund is now known as the Barrier Fund because it extended out of sinful stocks into industries with high barriers to entry. Minimum Investment is $2,000.

The Barrier Fund primarily invests in the following industries: Aerospace/Defense, Gaming, Tobacco and Alcoholic Beverages. These four industries were chosen because they demonstrate one or more of these compelling and distinctive investment characteristics:

  1. Natural barriers to new competition
  2. Steady demand regardless of economic condition
  3. Global Marketplace – not limited to the U.S. economy
  4. Potentially high profit margins
  5. Ability to generate excess cash flow and pay and increase dividends

The Barrier Fund  believes numerous investment opportunities in these industries which have been largely overlooked by other funds.

The Fund has high management fees of 2%. Americans can buy Vanguard’s or Fidelity’s index funds and pay only 0.1% in expenses.

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