Does abolishing bureaucracy save the #UBI? Avoid a great big new tax?

Firing the entire welfare state bureaucracy does not save the day for a universal basic income as Robert Greenstein explains

Suppose UBI provided everyone with $10,000 a year.  That would cost more than $3 trillion a year — and $30 trillion to $40 trillion over ten years.

This single-year figure equals more than three-fourths of the entire yearly federal budget — and double the entire budget outside Social Security, Medicare, defense, and interest payments.  It’s also equal to close to 100 percent of all tax revenue the federal government collects…

Where would the money to finance such a large expenditure come from?  That it would come mainly or entirely from new taxes isn’t plausible.

We’ll already need substantial new revenues in the coming decades to help keep Social Security and Medicare solvent and avoid large benefit cuts in them.  We’ll need further tax increases to help repair a crumbling infrastructure that will otherwise impede economic growth.  And if we want to create more opportunity and reduce racial and other barriers and inequities, we’ll also need to raise new revenues to invest more in areas like pre-school education, child care, college affordability, and revitalizing segregated inner-city communities.

A UBI that’s financed primarily by tax increases would require the American people to accept a level of taxation that vastly exceeds anything in U.S. history.  It’s hard to imagine that such a UBI would advance very far, especially given the tax increases we’ll already need for Social Security, Medicare, infrastructure, and other needs.

Source: Romney’s Charge That Most Federal Low-Income Spending Goes for “Overhead” and “Bureaucrats” Is False | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

#Morganfoundation’s same #UBI of $11,000 per adult is now triple pledged

Before my two comments disappeared from Gareth Morgan’s Facebook page, I pointed out that his universal basic income of $11,000 per adult is as of last night at least triple pledged.

According to Gareth Morgan’s latest remark in the screenshot, people can use their universal basic income of $11,000 to pay their comprehensive capital tax bill. This new tax is proposed to fill the at least $10 billion gap in the funding of his universal basic income.

This is not possible because his universal basic income is already pledged to at least two other purposes that may use up a good part of the universal basic income of $11,000 per adult that he is proposing.

The first of these pledges is a by-product of adults under the age of 50 not being grandfathered in to the current level of generosity of New Zealand Superannuation – New Zealand’s universal old age pension.

Adults under the age of 50 under the Morgan Foundation’s universal basic income are expected to save part of their universal basic income. This saving is to make up for the $50 per week cut in New Zealand Superannuation when it is replaced by a universal basic income of $11,000 per adult. Gareth Morgan explains

Only people who are today under the age of 50 could be expected to retire under the UBI policy, the policy would not apply to existing superannuitants.

The key question is whether someone aged, say 40 today, would be better or worse off in retirement under the policy. And the answer is if they earn the average wage now, have an average house, they will tend to be neither better nor worse off.

For the 25 years prior to retirement they will receive the UBI on top of their wages. If they save a good portion of it they will have nest egg at retirement which they can use in retirement to supplement the UBI (which is more modest than today’s NZ Super).

In addition to this, the universal basic income makes those on a single parents benefit $150 a week worse off on the basic benefit that is not including lost accommodation supplements and additional child payments. The Morgan Foundation solution is to take part of the universal basic income of the other parent and give it to their children. Gareth Morgan explains again

It is totally feasible that the UBI of both parents could be required to be directed to support the children in the event of separation.

So in addition to the poor and ordinary families saving their universal basic income for as little as 15 years to making up for the $50 per week cut in support for old age pensioners, and the $150 plus cut in income support to single parents on a welfare benefit, the universal basic income also will be used to pay the comprehensive capital tax on the family home.

Somewhere buried in the universal basic income is it is the idea that it replaces existing welfare benefits. However, as most of the universal basic income has been pledged to other purposes such as saving for retirement, supporting children and paying the great big new tax in the family home, it will be very unwise to actually become unemployed, get sick, become a single parent or being invalid on the already meagre universal basic income as Geoff Simmons explains

With an unconditional basic income, most beneficiaries would be no better off than they are now (in fact sole parents would almost certainly receive a lower benefit).

There is a high risk that nothing will be left over from the Morgan foundation’s universal basic income to help you out when you fall in bad times because that universal basic income is already spoken for by your children, your retirement, and a capital tax bill.

Helping people out in times of misfortunes is the purpose of social insurance. The Morgan Foundation’s universal basic income fails this basic test set by Gareth Morgan

…let’s agree on what is a minimum income every adult should have in order to live a dignified life and then see what flows from that. We begin by specifying the income level below which we are not prepared to see anyone having to live.

At very best, and only very best, the Morgan Foundation’s universal basic income leaves some of those for whom social insurance was designed perhaps no worse. There are plenty of commonplace scenarios where individuals and families down on their luck are made much worse by a universal basic income replacing existing welfare benefits and plunged far deeper in poverty and hardship.

 

The @MarcoRubio theory of elections is spreading to #UBI! Losing badly is winning

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James Heckman on the Economics of Human Development

Source: The Economics of Human Development | Institute for Economic Studies, Keio University.

Child poverty, @jacindaardern and what higher wages cannot buy

The Left thinks the solution to poverty is giving the poor more money because poverty is caused by the poor not having enough money.

Labour MP Jacinda Ardern introduced the exception in an op-ed in the Sunday Star Times. People are poor because they do not have enough money unless that is because of a lack of money because you are not married or not living with the father of the child.

Ardern was raging against a report by Lindsey Mitchell arguing that a major driver of child poverty is the breakdown of the family and the rise of single parent households. Ardern said that

I’ve spent the better part of six years reading and researching the issue of child poverty, and what we need to do to resolve this complex problem in New Zealand.

And yet here it was, the silver bullet we have all been looking for. Marriage. Getting hitched. Tying the knot. It turns out that we didn’t need an Expert Advisory Group on child poverty, or any OECD analysis for that matter – apparently all we really need is a pastor and a party

Ardern preferred to attribute the increase in child poverty to welfare benefit cuts in the early 1990s.

There is an exception within this exception for the living wage as Ardern says 

But the other factors Family First was so quick to dismiss – low wages and staggering housing costs – mean we have 305,000 children in poverty. And this is the stuff that needs to change. It’s time we faced reality.

A living wage increase can solved family poverty. Actually getting a job and earning a wage does not reduce poverty among single-parent households but living wage increases do for families.

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Source: Jacinda Ardern: Govt must improve the lot of our children – National – NZ Herald News.

You cannot have it both ways. That low wages cause family poverty but no wages does not.

The best solution to child poverty is to move their parents into a job. Simon Chapple is quite clear in his book last year with Jonathan Boston that.

Sustained full-time employment of sole parents and the fulltime and part-time employment of two parents, even at low wages, are sufficient to pull the majority of children above most poverty lines, given the various existing tax credits and family supports.

why no protests against #UBI bureaucratic job losses but #TPPANoWay protests aplenty about jobs?

The universal basic income is a rare bird for the left. It is the only time the usual suspects on the left are happy to cut government bureaucracy.

Furthermore, the left makes no inquiries as to how these redundant bureaucrats who administered the welfare state will find jobs. The market is left to work its magic for once. How convenient.

When a tariff cut is proposed, a trade deal signed, or job reduction in a bureaucracy suggested perhaps as the result of a privatisation, left-wing activists chain themselves to factory gates or government offices in solidarity. The social upheaval from the job losses among existing workers and their dim prospects of reemployment are paramount in their minds.

Why in the case of a universal basic income is the left so relaxed about job losses. Indeed, it celebrates as an advantage of a universal basic income that “Most of the bureaucracy of the welfare system [is] swept away” .

The universal basic income is the only time the left welcomes a reduction in bureaucracy and the role in the state. This switch from welfare payments to a universal basic income does not make those on the benefit any better off. Normally they are worse off under a universal basic income.

None of the the less well groups which of the concern of the left gain from a universal basic income. Despite this, they sell the jobs of their comrades in the public sector down the river.

I cannot believe the explanation is job losses are OK as long as they are the result of left-wing policies. Unless the labour market is liberalised, its ability to find new jobs for workers, for example, made redundant in the public sector after the introduction of a universal basic income is not any under greater than under a right-wing policy that costs jobs.

Homeless means living rough or in a car @DavidReiMiller @greencatherine @secondzeit

Statistics New Zealand spent 21 pages trying to define the term homeless. How Orwellian.

When I first moved to Canberra and when I moved back, I stayed with friends. Some regard that as being homeless under the Statistics New Zealand definition, much to my own surprise.

I qualify because I shared accommodation . Having shared or short-term accommodation is not homeless. The descriptions shared and short-term accommodation quite adequate to the task.

People living in temporary accommodation including with friends are not homeless. Their situation is unsatisfactory but describing it does not justify butchering the English language by conflating their inconveniences with the few hundred people who live rough each night.

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Source: New Zealand Parliament – Homelessness in New Zealand.

Those that conflate having a roof over your head tonight with living rough take advantage of the great sympathy people have for those living rough for people in far less dire situations.

PT Bauer on wealth and power

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Source: From Subsistence to Exchange and Other Essays – Lord Peter Tamas Bauer – Google Books

Poverty halves in #LatinAm in last 10 years, @WBG_Poverty @WorldBank still grumbling

The World Bank should enquire more as to why particular Latin countries succeeded while others did not and the economic systems employed in each.

Hayek on what determines market incomes

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Source: 1976 Monday Conference transcript featuring Hayek « Economics.org.au.

NZ #UBI can be only $4,700 @JordNZ @GrantRobertson1 @GeoffSimmonz

A universal basic income in New Zealand will have to be financed by a great big new tax because the existing ones are not enough according to the Economist calculations below.

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HT: Paul Kerby.

Few of the top 50 billionaires inherited their wealth

Of the 15 inheritance based billionaires, three are from the Walton family, two are the Koch brothers and another three are from the Mars family.

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Source: The world’s top 50 billionaires: A demographic breakdown.

More on down and out in America

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Source: Attanasio, Orazio P. and Luigi Pistaferri. 2016. “Consumption Inequality.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(2): 3-28.

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Are the Poor Getting Poorer?

The geography of U.S. poverty since 1960

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