Did Obama’s fiscal stimulus work?
30 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, fiscal policy, great recession, macroeconomics, politics - USA Tags: fiscal stimulus, obama
ABCT insights are predominantly a theory of unsustainable credit-induced booms
09 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in Austrian economics, business cycles, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics Tags: Austrian business cycle theory, Austrian macroeconomics, booms and busts, central banking, monetary policy, Roger Garrison
via What Austrian business cycle theory does and does not claim as true | Institute of Economic Affairs
This time it is different: unemployment incidence by duration, USA, 1968 – 2014
08 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in budget deficits, great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: natural unemployment rate, taxation and labour supply, unemployment duration, unemployment insurance, unemployment rates, welfare state
The Great Recession was the first recession in the USA in a good 40 to 50 years where the composition of employment changed by much. Even the big recession at the beginning of the 1980s did not do much to the composition of unemployment by duration in the USA.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
Those unemployed for more than a year moved from barely double digits even in a bad recession prior to 2008 to coming on one-third of all unemployed. Likewise, those unemployed for less than a month halved from 40% to 20%. Something changed in the US labour market with the Great Recession and the long extensions of unemployment insurance from 26 weeks to 52 weeks and then 99 weeks.
Average duration of unemployment, USA, Canada and Australia, 1968 – 2014
08 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: Australia, Canada, unemployment rates
Source: OECD StatExtract.
I have no information as to why there is a sudden surge in the Canadian unemployment duration rate in 2001.
Did fiscal austerity in 2010 have credible academic support?
05 Aug 2015 1 Comment
#Greece austerity gauge. Greek government spending has fallen 20% since 2008. In UK and Italy it's up. #GreekCrisis http://t.co/WMQBxxVFqq—
RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) July 07, 2015
One measure of the scale of austerity in Greece…and other advanced economies. http://t.co/PxCLagdd3L—
RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) July 06, 2015
The employment level in #Greece is back to where it was in 1985. It's the equivalent of the UK losing 6 million jobs. http://t.co/AAWHMEFwfK—
RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) July 06, 2015
Did the GFC catch modern macroeconomists by surprise?
03 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, currency unions, economic growth, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, history of economic thought, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: bank panics, bank runs, banking crises, currency crises, Thomas Sargent
@sjwrenlewis The stimulus package ignored what we have learned in the last 60 years of macroeconomic research
02 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics Tags: Brad Delong, fiscal multiplier, fiscal stimulus, Larry Summers, New Keynesian macroeconomics, Thomas Sargent
Unemployment rates by education in the USA
21 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economics of education, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, human capital, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: education premium, labour market demographics
June jobless rate for people 25+ with
B.A. or more 2.5%
High school diploma 5.4%
No H.S. 8.2%
on.wsj.com/1LG1B6z http://t.co/luUUuw9h1V—
Sudeep Reddy (@Reddy) July 02, 2015
Greece debt crisis in 90 seconds
18 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in economic growth, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, international economics, law and economics Tags: Greece, sovereign defaults
A lot of countries borrowed a lot of money recently
18 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics Tags: Greece, Italy, Japan, sovereign debt, sovereign default, Spain
Greece is unlikely to be the last sovereign debt restructuring of this cycle wsj.com/articles/greec… via @greg_ip http://t.co/YnvOuDurDL—
Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) July 16, 2015
John Cochrane on a big hole in the Greek bailout (and media analysis of the bailout)
15 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in currency unions, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: bank runs, banking panics, Greece, John Cochrane, lender of last resort, sovereign bailouts, sovereign default
An average of 41% of Greek bank assets are non-performing, with loan repayments 90 days overdue or more (Barclays). http://t.co/HfXV8uapkj—
Mike Bird (@Birdyword) July 13, 2015
There were large cross-country differences in long-term unemployment duration both before and after the GFC
15 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: equilibrium unemployment rate, Eurosclerosis, natural unemployment rate, unemployment duration
77% more long-term unemployed people than before the crisis – We need them back in work! bit.ly/1JTTzYm #Jobs http://t.co/EFRGclFVms—
OECD Social (@OECD_Social) July 10, 2015
Hysteresis in practice, Delong-Summers Variety @delong @LHSummers http://t.co/urqxQBi6NE—
Roger E. A. Farmer (@farmerrf) July 23, 2015
Unemployment rates across OECD member countries
14 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: unemployment rates
Greek and US great depressions compared
14 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, currency unions, economic growth, economic history, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: Greece
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/620570062538309632/photo/1
Greek Depression vs US Depression:
Unemployment http://t.co/81efYi5Ajy—
ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) July 13, 2015
The Spanish economic recovery compared
10 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, currency unions, economic growth, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics Tags: Eurosclerosis, France, Germany, Italy, Spain
Spain's economic growth is being touted as a success story. Don't tell the Spaniards: on.wsj.com/1M45yzI http://t.co/pm4DAd1qkF—
Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) June 03, 2015
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