UK recovery: stronger than Italy, weaker than US & Canada. http://t.co/C0TEsbzMm3—
Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) April 28, 2015
Recoveries from recessions across the G-7
28 Apr 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics, politics - USA Tags: British economy, Canada, Eurosclerosis, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, recoveries from recessions
The role of new taxes in the Great Recession
24 Apr 2015 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, great recession, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA Tags: great recession, obama, Obamacare, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply


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The looming fiscal crisis in the USA
22 Apr 2015 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics, politics - USA Tags: ageing society
Levels of output are nowhere near returning to pre-crisis trends
21 Apr 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics Tags: Eurosclerosis
Why are Europe’s strong employment protection laws still popular with the Left?
17 Apr 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of regulation, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: employment law reform, employment protections laws, Eurosclerosis, Germany
#Unemployment rate in #OECD area fell to 7.0% in Feb, w/42.9mn people jobless bit.ly/1FNK0W5 #stats http://t.co/RPUqvlR3mQ—
(@OECD) April 13, 2015
The countries with the more liberal labour markets are recovering fastest from the Great Recession and the Global Financial Crisis.
EZ unemployment rates http://t.co/vnfti1hhqe—
(@cigolo) March 31, 2015
This includes Germany where there were major labour market reforms a couple of years before the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. For that reason, German unemployment rates didn’t rise much in 2008 and after and are now falling quite rapidly because of their labour market liberalisations. Germany has the lowest unemployment rate in Europe.
UK youth unemployment high but lower than 20 other EU member states. #Budget2015 http://t.co/eBa8W9rr6C—
RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) March 18, 2015
Average tax rates on consumption, investment, labour and capital in USA, UK and Canada, 1950-2013
17 Apr 2015 5 Comments
in business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics, politics - USA, public economics Tags: British economy, Canada, sick man of Europe, tax incidence, tax reform
Income taxes in the USA and UK didn’t change all that much after the mid-70s. Prior to that, income tax rose quite steadily in the UK in the 1950s and 1960s and not surprisingly, Britain was the sick man of Europe in the 1970s. Income taxes rose quite steadily in Canada for most of the post-war period up until 1990 and then levelled out for most of that decade before a small tapered downwards.
Source: Cara McDaniel.
Taxes on consumption expenditure were very different stories across the Atlantic. There has been a tapering down in the average tax rate on American consumption expenditure since 1970 after modest increases before that. Canadian taxes on consumption expenditure rose steadily until the 1970s, then drop steadily in the 1970s and than rose in the 1980s and dropped again after 1992. British taxes on consumption expenditure rose sharply in the late 1960s, dropped sharply and then rose again in the 1970s and was pretty steady after that.
The sleeper tax in all three countries was payroll taxes to fund social security and the welfare state. These rose steadily in the USA, UK and Canada up until the 1990s.
Source: Cara McDaniel.
Despite all that nonsense about neoliberalism from the Left over Left, the average rate of tax on capital income did not appear to change much at all over the last 50 years. There was a modest taper in US capital income taxation from the mid-30s to the mid-20s over the entire post-war period. The average Canadian tax rate on income from capital rose steadily in the 60s, fell steadily in the 70s before rising again in the mid-1980s and fell again after 2000. The average British tax rate on capital income rose steadily in the 60s and 70s, coinciding with the emergence of Britain as a sick man of Europe, and then stabilised in the the 1980s onwards but with a dip in the late 80s before a rise in the early 1990s.. Despite the large cuts in the statutory corporate tax rate in the UK, there was only a mild taper in the average tax rate on capital income in the UK.
Source: Cara McDaniel.
The average tax rate on investment expenditures is pretty stable in the USA for the entire post-war period. The only significant increase in the average tax rate on investment expenditures in the UK coincided with the emergence of the sick man in Europe after a drop in the early 70s. The average tax rate on investment expenditures do not change at all in the UK after the 1970s. The Canadian average tax rate on investment expenditures is higher than elsewhere. It rose steadily in the 50s and 60s, dropped in the 70s and rose again in the 80s before tapering from 1992 onwards.
Source: Cara McDaniel.
These higher on rising taxes and the UK and Canada did nothing for either country in catching up with the USA. The figure 1 below shows real GDP per working age per American, Canadian and British.
Figure 1: Real GDP per Canadian, British and American aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1950-2013
Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics
The USA is pulling away from Canada and the UK in GDP per working age person. The exception is British economy from about 1990 onwards which caught up with Canada.
Figure 2, which is detrended GDP data, illustrates the British economic boom in the 1990s. Each country’s annual economic growth rate is detrended by 1.9%, the detrending value currently used by Ed Prescott. A flat line is growth at 1.9%, a rising line is above trend growth, a falling line is below trend growth.
Figure 2: Real GDP per Canadian, British and American aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, detrended 1.9%, 1950-2013
Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics
Figure 2 shows that Canada has been in a long-term decline since the mid-1980s with much of this decline coinciding with periods of rising taxes on income from labour.
The British economy boomed in the 1990s, after the tax hikes of the 1970s and early 80s were reversed. This growth dividend was squandered by the Blair government in the 2000.
Figure 2 also shows that US growth was rather stable with some ups and downs up until 2007, expect during the productivity slowdown in the 1970s. The first major departure from trend growth of 1.9% was with the onset of the great recession.
Real GDP per Japanese and American aged 15-64, 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS PPP, detrended, 1970-2013
13 Apr 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic growth, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, growth miracles, macroeconomics Tags: GFC, great recession, Japan, Lost Decade
Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics.
Note: When the line is flat, the economy is growing at its trend growth rate. A falling line means below trend growth; a rising line means of above trend growth. Detrended with values used by Edward Prescott.
The Japanese decline after 1992 are the Lost Decades. Japan recently returned to its 3.2% trend growth rate of the 1970s and 1980s for working age Japanese.
It could be argued that Japan is now on a permanently lower growth rate that implies no further catch up with the USA.
New Zealand, Australian and US real housing price index, 1975–2014, 2005 base
12 Apr 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, urban economics Tags: GFC, housing prices, land supply, zoning
The housing spikes in Australia and New Zealand preceded the global financial crisis, starting in about 1999, and were largely unaffected by the GFC. Housing prices in the USA were pretty calm except in the lead up to the GFC, and took a dive with the onset of the global financial crisis and great recession.
Source: Dallas Fed; Housing prices deflated by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator.
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Employment losses after recent financial crises
09 Apr 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, job search and matching, macroeconomics Tags: financial crises, global financial crisis, great recession, recessions and recoveries
@TimDuy @profsufi Compared to other financial crisis, this recovery is OK. http://t.co/eGU5lOxKnu—
Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) December 24, 2014
Unemployment by education
11 Mar 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, great recession, human capital, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, politics - USA, unemployment Tags: labour demographics
Yes, Some Companies Are Cutting Hours In Response To ‘Obamacare’
28 Feb 2015 Leave a comment
in great recession, health economics, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA Tags: Obamacare, taxation and the labour supply
…the evidence suggests that the health law has likely led a few hundred thousand workers to see their hours cut or capped. That’s small in the context of an economy with 150 million workers.
But it isn’t a minor issue for those workers. Most of them are among the economy’s most vulnerable: low-wage, part-time workers who likely have few other options.



Edmund Phelps on Keynesian macroeconomic policy
25 Feb 2015 2 Comments
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, F.A. Hayek, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: Austrian real business cycle theory, Edmund Phelps, FA Hayek, Keynes in macroeconomic policy




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