How the Tax Burden is Shared between Buyers and Sellers

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Political bias, free trade and @berniesanders @realdonaldtrump

No two tax cuts impact the economy in the same way.

Average incomes before and after US federal taxes

Source: How much do federal taxes redistribute income? — Visualizing Economics.

The Swedish tax mix as a percentage of GDP since 1965

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Source: OECD Stat.

British tax mix as a percentage of GDP

The large rise in tax in personal income in the 1970s coincided with the rise of the British disease and British economy becoming widely known as the sick man of Europe. The large decline in taxation in personal income under Thatchernomics was followed by an economic boom.

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Source: OECD Stat.

Tax mix in New Zealand as percentage of GDP since 1965

That GST certainly played a major role since the 1980s. Taxes on corporate profits are on the up and up despite what you would believe from the grumblings of the Left down under.

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Source: OECD Stat.

Tax mix in the USA as a percentage of GDP since 1965

The only major change in the US tax mix in the last 50 years has been greater reliance on social security contributions.

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Source: OECD Stat.

The share going to income taxes bobbing up and down quite a lot in the last 30 years much of that to do with the business cycle. In the 1990s, the share of taxes from personal income increased during boom times. In the Great Recession, the tax share to income tax rose with the declining economy as did that on corporate profits.

Taxation of personal income and social security contributions as a percentage of US, British, Danish, German, French and New Zealand GDPs since 1965

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Source: Tax – Social security contributions – OECD Data and Tax – Tax on personal income – OECD Data.

Who Pays the Tax?

The impact of the 1986 GST on the New Zealand tax mix since 1965

The introduction of the GST in 1986 led to a major change in the New Zealand tax mix. There was no offsetting income tax cuts.

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Source: Tax – Tax on goods and services – OECD Data and Tax – Tax on personal income – OECD Data.

Combined federal, state and local company tax rates across the OECD, 2015

Britain will have the 2nd lowest company tax rate across the OECD by 2020. The 2016 British budget announced overnight reduces the tax to 17% by 2020.

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Source: OECD Stat  Table II.1. Corporate income tax rate.

New Zealand Post (incl. Kiwibank) dividends

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Source: New Zealand Treasury – data released under the Official Information Act.

Tax burdens of the top 10% across the OECD

General government expenditure and general government revenue as a % of Australian and New Zealand GDP since 1970

I do not trust the numbers for New Zealand prior to the early 1990s released by the OECD. New Zealand simply did not have a tax structure including a GST in the double digits back then to support estate of that size. Nonetheless, the size of government in New Zealand is systematically larger than in Australia, a richer country which can afford a large government and generous welfare state.

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Source: General government – General government revenue – OECD Data and Data extracted on 12 Feb 2016 08:45 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat from OECD Economic Outlook November 2015.

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