Forget avoidance outrage: public’s real attitude to tax is revealed by their actions @JordNZ
21 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, constitutional political economy, economic history, economics of media and culture, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, Public Choice, public economics Tags: British economy, British politics, expressive voting, growth of government, rational irrationality, revealed preference, size of government, voter demographics
Did the rise of welfare state cause more inequality in wealth?
18 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality, public economics Tags: growth of government, income inequality, measurement error, Ricardian theory of budget deficits, Social Security, top 1%, wealth inequality
Markus Poschke and Barış Kaymak have just put out a paper arguing that increased social spending is a major driver of wealth inequality:
Another important and often overlooked third factor is the rise in the generosity of government transfers since 1960, mostly due to the expansion of public pensions (social security) and the introduction of public health insurance for the elderly (Medicare).
Combined spending on these two programs accounted for almost 9% of US GDP in 2010, up from less than 3% in 1960…
These government programmes tend to curb the need to rely on personal savings for retirement, especially among low and middle-income households, and might thus explain why their share in total wealth has declined.
This makes a good to good degree of sense. I have previously argued that using the arguments of Edward Prescott that it is not wise for people on ordinary income to save for their retirement when they can go down to the local Social Security office and claim an old age pension.
51% of nonretirees doubt they will receive Social Security… on.gallup.com/1NcwzEa #GallupDaily http://t.co/ZhKnHYtr1X—
(@GallupNews) August 13, 2015
It is even less wise to save that for retirement if those savings reduce your eligibility for an old age pension. Far better just to invest in a nicer house and pass it on to your children. Poschke and Kaymak note that measures of private wealth inequality miss these claims to old age pensions:
… statistics on wealth inequality that do not capture households’ claims on the public sector are incomplete and overstate top wealth shares.
This is not a new argument. Back when the Ricardian theories of budget deficits came to prominence and before that in debates on theories of the public debt, the more Keynesian sides of those arguments did argue that people were irrational for not including their old age pension entitlements under social security schemes in their calculations of their wealth.
Some of their taxes were paying for their future old age pension and were another form of wealth rather than a tax. As such, taxpayers should regard this part of their taxes as investments and not cutting back their labour supply in response as they do to other taxes.
How much of the rise in wealth inequality is due to this failure to measure Social Security wealth as represented by old age pension entitlements? Their estimate is about 25%:
…technological factors play a dominant role not only for changes in income inequality, as is well known, but also for wealth inequality. As high-earning households save part of their additional income, their share of wealth also rises.
This channel accounts for about half of the total increase in wealth inequality. Tax cuts and the expansion of transfers each account for about half of the remainder…
While tax cuts encourage saving, larger transfers reduce saving incentives for retirement, in particular for low and middle income groups. This implies that these groups’ share of private wealth declines.
Note though that this is partly due to the fact that measures of private wealth inequality, like those compiled by Saez and Zucman, do not include claims to future government transfers, like social security, which constitute wealth for their owners.
@garethmorgannz is getting a little techie about debating optimal tax theory
17 Apr 2016 1 Comment
in politics - New Zealand, public economics Tags: optimal tax theory, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply, taxation of capital
All I said was “optimal tax theory including that pioneered by Stiglitz and Merrlees, economists of impeccable left-wing credentials, show that taxes on the income from capital should be low because the deadweight social costs of taxes on capital are very high”.
@garethmorgannz gives optimal tax theory a pass once again @JordNZ
17 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, public economics Tags: company tax, Gareth Morgan, rational irrationality, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply, taxation of capital income
The Morgan Foundation gave optimal tax theory a pass in yesterday’s publication about taxes on land and capital. Gareth Morgan is keen on a comprehensive capital tax.
Source: Taxing Wealth & Property – What Works? A Morgan Foundation Report.
This failure to refer to optimal tax theory is despite the Foundation’s strong commitment to evidence-based policy. Any discussion of tax policy that is evidence-based must refer optimal tax theory.
Source: Morgan Foundation, Public Policy Education.
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The scale of the #Panamapapers leak
16 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, law and economics, property rights, public economics Tags: conspiracy theories, tax havens
Taxpayers Alliance mistaken about tax revenues as a stable % of GDP @the_tpa
12 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, public economics Tags: British economy, British taxes, growth of government, Margaret Thatcher, size of government, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply, Taxpayers Alliance
The British Taxpayers Alliance got carried away a bit when it said taxes as a share of British GDP have not varied much over the last 50 years or so. Margaret Thatcher would be turning in her grave.
A stable tax take is more the case in the USA. Federal tax receipts stay within the range of 18-20% of U.S. GDP as shown in the charts below and above.
There were large cuts in the top tax rates in the USA without any fall in tax revenues as a percentage of GDP because of base broadening.
Margaret Thatcher really did make a dent in taxes as a share of GDP in the 1980s. They fell by 5% of GDP but then went back up again in the 1990s as is shown in the Centre for Policy Studies chart below.
That 5% drop was a big variation as a share of GDP which is also shown in the Taxpayers Alliance chart if you look closely at the 1980s. That sharp drop in taxes as a share of British GDP is clearer in the Centre for Policy Studies chart because it magnifies the data.
There are also big changes in the British tax mix in the 1970s and 1980s. The large rise in tax in personal income in the 1970s as a percentage of GDP, also shown in both British charts above as well is the one below, coincided with the rise of the British disease and British economy becoming widely known as the sick man of Europe.
Source: OECD Stat.
The large decline in taxation in personal income under Thatchernomics was followed by an economic boom. The UK grew at above the trend annual real GDP growth to 1.9% for most of the period from the early 1980s to 2007 as shown in the detrended data in the chart below.
Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015,http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/.
In the above chart, a flat line is growth at the same rate as the USA for the 20th century, which was 1.9% for GDP per working age person on a purchasing power parity basis. The USA’s trend growth rate in the 20th century is taken as the trend rate of growth of the global technological frontier.
A falling line in the above chart is growth in real GDP per working age person, PPP at less than the trend rate of 1.9% per annum while a rising line is real growth in GDP per working age person in excess of the trend rate.
Top marginal tax rates and thresholds across the OECD
04 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and labour supply, taxation investment, top marginal tax rates
Australian taxes on income are not particularly high if you include social security
02 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in politics - Australia, public economics Tags: Australia, old age pensions, retirement savings, taxation and labour supply
@JordNZ best way to talk yourself out of #UBI is listen to advocate list new taxes required
01 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in economics, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics, welfare reform Tags: universal basic income
Political bias, free trade and @berniesanders @realdonaldtrump
31 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, economics of media and culture, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2016 presidential election, antiforeign bias, antimarket bias, makework bias, pessimism bias, rational irrationality
No two tax cuts impact the economy in the same way.
31 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, public economics Tags: capital gains tax, company tax, family tax credits, in-work tax credits, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
Average incomes before and after US federal taxes
23 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, public economics Tags: after-tax income distribution
The Swedish tax mix as a percentage of GDP since 1965
21 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, public economics Tags: growth of government, size of government, Sweden
Source: OECD Stat.
British tax mix as a percentage of GDP
19 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, public economics Tags: British disease, British economy, growth of government, sick man of Europe, size of government, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply, Thatchernomics
The large rise in tax in personal income in the 1970s coincided with the rise of the British disease and British economy becoming widely known as the sick man of Europe. The large decline in taxation in personal income under Thatchernomics was followed by an economic boom.
Source: OECD Stat.
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